That's one of the big questions in all this polling data. Are they accounting for new registrations in their modeling. If they are, then this will be a razor's edge election. If not, we're all but done and Trump is in the White House by 10pm on election night.

Also, AZ is a strange place. The McCain acolytes don't run anything anymore, but there are enough bitter holdovers that they can tank any Republican. Trump's comments on Kemp can't help in GA, but they might not sink him. In AZ, if Trump and Lake don't kiss the McCain ring, they WILL lose. Sucks, but it's the truth.

JDUB08AG said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Arizona needs to get their **** together.

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These registered or likely voters? Didn't AZ have a big uptick in GOP registration?

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Arizona is reporting they now have more registered Republicans than registered Democrats

in Pennsylvania the GOP has been increasing their share but still trails by 309,250

Republicans have had a registration advantage in AZ for a while, but their lead has grown since 2020. A lot of new Arizona registrants are registering as independent.

Current totals for AZ are something like 35% Republican, 34% Independent, 29% Democrat

GenericAggie said:

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Does the VP choice help Harrs is anyway from a poll perspective? Any initial poll results?

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It'll probably take a week or two to get a good sampling of polls that have people's opinion of Kamala with her VP choice baked in.

rgag12 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Does the VP choice help Harrs is anyway from a poll perspective? Any initial poll results?

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It'll probably take a week or two to get a good sampling of polls that have people's opinion of Kamala with her VP choice baked in.

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Walz has practically no name recognition nationally speaking.

What is the latest on Trump's sentencing? I know SCOTUS rejected the push to have it delayed. If sentencing goes through as planned, that will be at a critical time in the campaign. Any thoughts on what happens next because that will surely impact polling, whether we want to admit it or not.

He's weak on border and weak on crime. He was picked because he's a white dude from the Midwest. They have a thinnish bench of those guys up there surprisingly. Whitmer decided she wanted no part of this ticket unless she was at the top and Shapiro would have lost them Michigan instantly.

aezmvp said:

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He's weak on border and weak on crime. He was picked because he's a white dude from the Midwest. They have a thinnish bench of those guys up there surprisingly. Whitmer decided she wanted no part of this ticket unless she was at the top and Shapiro would have lost them Michigan instantly.

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Why lose MI?

The Hamas wing basically said if Kamala picked Shapiro, they were staying home. I guarantee they polled they hell out of Shapiro before the pick. I think they thought he'd be the guy and Walz was a throwaway to placate Pelosi.

Instead, the bottom fell out for Shapiro, and the only palatable and vetted candidate left standing was Walz.

JD Vance needs to camp out in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the next 90 days and speak at every single high school and church

and look even the Jews are turning away from the Hamas wing of the democrat party- in NEW YORK

If this is true for NY then the numbers will be higher elsewhere. https://t.co/C1qetxIY9K

— Karol Markowicz (@karol) August 6, 2024

GenericAggie said:

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Does the VP choice help Harrs is anyway from a poll perspective? Any initial poll results?

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Polls this far out are not great and this election in the battleground states were always going to be within the margin or error

Maybe in a few weeks a trend will emerge but the cause of the trend will be difficult to determine

NC governor's race is very close, after all? Split ticket possible? I can't believe 5 percent would vote for Trump and then choose Stein over Robinson.

Quote:

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The latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll, conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC, took place from July 19-20 with 573 North Carolina voters. It found that Stein leads Robinson by six points, 48%-42%. The current RCP Average for the race is tighter, with Stein leading by 1.3 points.

The race has drawn controversy in recent days, as Stein launched a new ad called "Unsafe," which alleges that state documents indicate a childcare center run by Robinson was "unsanitary and endangered children." Robinson wrote in his 2022 biography that he owned a daycare from 2000 to 2007. Since Stein launched the ad, Robinson's attorneys alleged in a cease-and-desist letter that the ad "includes a series of misleading statements, visuals that distort the truth, and false assertions regarding the content of state records" and that the "letter puts Josh Stein and his campaign on notice that this advertisement contains false and defamatory information."

Stein's campaign manager, Jeff Allen, has since retorted, saying in a statement that "The ad is factually accurate, based on publicly available information, and, to date, the Robinson campaign has yet to provide any new factual information to refute the ad's claims."

In the general election race between Trump and Harris, the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll taken from July 24-28 with 706 registered voters found that Trump led by two points against Harris in the head-to-head race and by one point in the multi-way race, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others. In the July 19-20 PPP poll, which was taken before Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Trump led Harris by four points.

The current RCP Average has Trump up three points in the state, while before Biden dropped out, Trump led by 5.4 points. Similar to previous elections in North Carolina, this indicates that there is a possible 5%-6% of voters that could vote for Democrat Stein in the gubernatorial race but for Trump in the presidential race.

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Robinson is pretty great. and he's been a good Lt Gov. North Carolinians need to get behind him and get him elected.

aggiehawg said:

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rgag12 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Does the VP choice help Harrs is anyway from a poll perspective? Any initial poll results?

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It'll probably take a week or two to get a good sampling of polls that have people's opinion of Kamala with her VP choice baked in.

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Walz has practically no name recognition nationally speaking.

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I keep thinking of the horse head guy in The Godfather, but I think that was Waltz, not Walz.

Edit. Woltz, not Waltz.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: NPR/Marist (with leans)

🟦 Harris: 51% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 48%
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🟦 Harris: 48% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%

Definitely voting: Harris 49-45%
—
• #6 (2.9/3.0) | 1,513 RV | ±3.7%
• D39/R35/I24 | August 1-4https://t.co/uHNyTNQNbH pic.twitter.com/EzUugcEh4Z

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 6, 2024

D39 r35 rv. Lol.

So they over sampled Ds by 4 and Harris is up by 3….okay. Lol

You better enjoy it while it last!

In 2016 Trump was down YUGE in the polls. In 2020 he was also down, and lost by roughly 80K votes. Now that he's up in so many, watch out.

Do we really need every dumb "poll" brought here? It's clear this one was biased so why bring it here.

Jbob04 said:

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Do we really need every dump "poll" brought here? It's clear this one was biased so why bring it here.

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I swear I really don't remember this many polls coming out in past elections. Unreal.

Rockdoc said:

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Jbob04 said:

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Do we really need every dump "poll" brought here? It's clear this one was biased so why bring it here.

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I swear I really don't remember this many polls coming out in past elections. Unreal.

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I don't either. Used to be about every ten days to two weeks. But now thanks to the internet the ability to do snap polling is irresistible, I guess. But then those also have selection bias by those choosing to partticipate. Soeasy to push.

Is there any way to legitimize these polls?

Barnyard96 said:

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Is there any way to legitimize these polls?

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Look at the sampling to draw your own conclusions. Most WAY oversample dems and undersample conservative voters

It's an internet message board so I think we can expect partisans to post 'their sides' polls consistently. And most public polls are released for a reason; messaging. I've got no problem with folks posting biased polls, and think it's helpful 'we' can respond accordingly in a consolidated thread. The proliferation of polling itself is unsurprising in the much more internet-connected world today. Plus, some previously-reliable places like 538 have been absorbed into MSM fake news media (similarly, Rassumussen is pretty biased now vs. 20 years ago).

But again I err on the side of open discussion...I like when 'opponents' post their views. It's the 'liberals'/neocons/other side(s) that tends to disagree.

I get that, but how do we know its not fabricated propaganda?

I think the only polls that are fairly accurate are the internal polls generated by the campaigns themselves, and they're not gonna talk about those. They need to see the truth, whether they like what they see or not. It tells them where to spend their money.

Rockdoc said:

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I think the only polls that are fairly accurate are the internal polls generated by the campaigns themselves, and they're not gonna talk about those. They need to see the truth, whether they like what they see or not. It tells them where to spend their money.

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Excellent observation.

Ignorance over the reality of the situation would not help the campaigns at all. Whether or not they would admit what they know to others, it is vital for a campaign to know where they stand and what is working and what is not working.

Rockdoc said:

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You better enjoy it while it last!

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What am I enjoying?

Rockdoc said:

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I think the only polls that are fairly accurate are the internal polls generated by the campaigns themselves, and they're not gonna talk about those. They need to see the truth, whether they like what they see or not. It tells them where to spend their money.

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I would agree that they are very accurate, but there are also plenty of public polls that are also very accurate. And there are plenty more that are narrative driven.

Fortunately for us at the end of the day the game gets played and the polls get graded. Cook and Silver and Real Clears aggregate them and generally either exclude or downgrade the ones that consistently miss.

Rockdoc said:

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You better enjoy it while it last!

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Y'all realize capt is a conservative leaning pollster / strategist type right? I can't remember exactly what he does but he's on team GOP and has really good insight and connections with respect to polling trends and general political winds.

Don't want to speak for him but I'm pretty sure he's rooting for the Marxist party to get their asses beat this fall and just brings a lot of insight to the process

Good memory! I have taken a step back from politics this cycle to focus on other things (like family and Aggie baseball!) but am still doing things here and there. I worked on several campaigns and then chaired a national conservative PAC from 2018 through the 2022 cycle. I used to be able to get on calls with internal pollsters to break down races (mainly Senate) to figure out where to divert our funding. And I brought some of what I felt comfortable sharing from those calls here the last few cycles.

All that to say, I've spent a lot of blood, sweat, and tears getting conservatives elected and you are absolutely right that there is no part of me that wants Kamala or her crew getting elected.

I've been posting all the polls that have been shared on the three polling aggregate sights that past few weeks. Definitely not celebrating anything that would show Kamala up.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Good memory! I have taken a step back from politics this cycle to focus on other things (like family and Aggie baseball!) but am still doing things here and there. I worked on several campaigns and then chaired a national conservative PAC from 2018 through the 2022 cycle. I used to be able to get on calls with internal pollsters to break down races (mainly Senate) to figure out where to divert our funding. And I brought some of what I felt comfortable sharing from those calls here the last few cycles.

All that to say, I've spent a lot of blood, sweat, and tears getting conservatives elected and you are absolutely right that there is no part of me that wants Kamala or her crew getting elected.

I've been posting all the polls that have been shared on the three polling aggregate sights that past few weeks. Definitely not celebrating anything that would show Kamala up.

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How in the F could she possibly be up?

Not convinced she is. But if she is, there are a lot of explanations, but the simplest is two words: White women. He underperforms significantly with them.

JUST IN: Pollster Frank Luntz says Kamala Harris is now the front runner in the election, says he would have picked Josh Shapiro over Tim Walz.

Solid points from @FrankLuntz.

1. Walz was a “safe choice” but Shapiro was a better candidate because of his PA roots.

2. Kamala… pic.twitter.com/78A3odUAv1

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 7, 2024

JUST IN: Pollster Frank Luntz says Kamala Harris is now the front runner in the election, says he would have picked Josh Shapiro over Tim Walz.

Solid points from @FrankLuntz.

1. Walz was a "safe choice" but Shapiro was a better candidate because of his PA roots.

2. Kamala Harris is now the front runner and has the momentum.

3. Walz is a 'good speaker, very presentable, knows the issues and mirrors her point of view.'

4. Kamala has the wind at her back and will get another bounce after the DNC.

5. Voters who simply weren't going to vote at all (for Biden because of his age) are now energized to vote for Harris.

6. 'This is Trump's election to lose.'