538 is a trash ABC fake news site widely mocked by even Nate Silver at this point. As hundreds of us know. C'mon, man.

GenericAggie said:

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I want to know who's going to address the debt problem and how they're gonna do it.

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No one, and they're not. HTH.

Morning Insult with another poll

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @MorningConsult

🟦 Harris: 48% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 44% [-2]
🟪 Other: 5%

[+/- change vs July 26-28]

#116 (1.8/3.0) | 11,265 RV | 8/2-4https://t.co/RI5a7YGIdy pic.twitter.com/vMmuQ7JRUS

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

Morning Consult National Polling

July 21-22
🟥 Donald Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%

July 26-28
🟦 Kamala Harris: 47% (+1)
🟥 Donald Trump: 46%

August 2-4
🟦 Kamala Harris: 48% (+4)
🟥 Donald Trump: 44%

Net 6 point swing towards Harris https://t.co/RI5a7YGIdy https://t.co/hsgkfWc3ta pic.twitter.com/7PoqYiadLr

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

2024 National GE:

Harris 46% (+3)
Trump 43%
Kennedy 6%

.@YouGovAmerica/@UMassPoll/@WCVB, 1,000 RV, 7/29-8/1https://t.co/4O1W0vQSJu

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 5, 2024

#NEW @NateSilver538 Forecast:

Chance of winning:
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
.
Electoral votes:
Harris 282
Trump 255

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 5, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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2024 National GE:

Harris 46% (+3)
Trump 43%
Kennedy 6%

.@YouGovAmerica/@UMassPoll/@WCVB, 1,000 RV, 7/29-8/1https://t.co/4O1W0vQSJu

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 5, 2024

#NEW @NateSilver538 Forecast:

Chance of winning:
Harris 53%
Trump 46%
.
Electoral votes:
Harris 282
Trump 255

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 5, 2024

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Well that is downright terrible news. Good Lord.

Will be fun to see these polls in a week or so after the market continues to tank

GenericAggie said:

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I love Trump so I think you're misunderstanding my point. Im 1000% most worried about our death situation. Don't care much about anything else except for policy. I want to know who's going to address the debt problem and how they're gonna do it. Everything else is BS and just noise.

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This times 1000.

Right now neither party will even acknowledge it. It's ridiculous. There are no good choices. Only maybe less bad choices.

Trump is sliding, but better now than October. Plenty of time to bounce back

This election feels a lot like 2004. Bush was leading but then supposedly Kerry took the lead, only for Bush to win a fairly solid victory.

Trump campaign and their strategy have been terrible the last two weeks. Dems came out swinging (with the media) and Trump campaign sat and took it. Then Trump shot himself in the foot with the Indian/Black comment. Stick to the policies.

Any DEI questions need to be responded with "your answer lies with Joe who said he was picking a VP and SC Justice based on gender and race."

He went to a black journalist convention and was immediately asked a loaded question about Kamala's blackness, something she only leans on when convenient to herself. Trump will never answer questions with the tact or couth of a polished swindling career politician that anyone wants him to, but the sugar high of the communist voter block finding a way to oust of the geriatric senile empty suit has given them energy and life for now, until it wears out. Kamala's extreme far left progressive comments on everything will continue to be reposted and regurgitated for the next three months. Expect a bounce back in these polls and tightening in some of those senate races.

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

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Trump campaign and their strategy have been terrible the last two weeks. Dems came out swinging (with the media) and Trump campaign sat and took it. Then Trump shot himself in the foot with the Indian/Black comment. Stick to the policies.

Any DEI questions need to be responded with "your answer lies with Joe who said he was picking a VP and SC Justice based on gender and race."

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"Are you saying sir that their race disqualifies them from VP and SC?"

You cant win. He put the truth about her out there. Let them lose their minds over it for a couple days. Its all they got and its a tired approach.

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

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Trump campaign and their strategy have been terrible the last two weeks. Dems came out swinging (with the media) and Trump campaign sat and took it. Then Trump shot himself in the foot with the Indian/Black comment. Stick to the policies.

Any DEI questions need to be responded with "your answer lies with Joe who said he was picking a VP and SC Justice based on gender and race."

---

He has a great plan. Just sit back and enjoy. You do not leave the DEI crap alone, go at it head on. It is ruining this country and everyone knows it. He lost NO SUPPORT doing what he has since Harris was anointed. Yall freak out like TDS crybabies Jesus Christ it is pathetic.

Who did he lose doing the crazy black lady conference? CHIRP CHIRP

Going after DEI? CHIRP CHIRP

You either attack her character or get your ass ran over, Trump is doing what is necessary, weather you can stomach it or not

HER APPROVAL RATING AND POLL NUMBERS DID NOT RISE DUE TO POLICY

Trump has to erase the effort by the media and DNC to make her look like an angel, black angel. He is doing a good job so far

Yall will see this in the polls soon

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

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Trump campaign and their strategy have been terrible the last two weeks. Dems came out swinging (with the media) and Trump campaign sat and took it. Then Trump shot himself in the foot with the Indian/Black comment. Stick to the policies.

Any DEI questions need to be responded with "your answer lies with Joe who said he was picking a VP and SC Justice based on gender and race."

---

The Trump campaign isn't fully to blame. The Obama's and the DNC set in motion the ouster of Joe months ago, (a debate in early June, really?) because his poll numbers were extremely bad and not recovering. So the DNC and the media had weeks to grease up the Kamala hype train and unleash it at their choosing, preferably after the RNC so the republicans couldn't counter with organized hype of their own.

It also wasn't 100% obvious that Kamala was the nominee, what if the Trump campaign started to re-other attack materials for Kamala and the DNC switched again? Millions more down the drain.

Trump being Trump and falling for the race bait was an unforced error. Horrible job by his handlers who should've never let him do that obvious trap event.

oh no said:

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He went to a black journalist convention and was immediately asked a loaded question about Kamala's blackness, something she only leans on when convenient to herself. Trump will never answer questions with the tact or couth of a polished swindling career politician that anyone wants him to, but the sugar high of the communist voter block finding a way to oust of the geriatric senile empty suit has given them energy and life for now, until it wears out. Kamala's extreme far left progressive comments on everything will continue to be reposted and regurgitated for the next three months. Expect a bounce back in these polls and tightening in some of those senate races.

---

The question was "Is Kamala a DEI hire?" Not her blackness. Trump's answer was about race, which was terrible politically. A direct answer to the question was a lose/lose for him, which is why he should have said "your answer lies with Joe, who chose based on gender and race."

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

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oh no said:

---

He went to a black journalist convention and was immediately asked a loaded question about Kamala's blackness, something she only leans on when convenient to herself. Trump will never answer questions with the tact or couth of a polished swindling career politician that anyone wants him to, but the sugar high of the communist voter block finding a way to oust of the geriatric senile empty suit has given them energy and life for now, until it wears out. Kamala's extreme far left progressive comments on everything will continue to be reposted and regurgitated for the next three months. Expect a bounce back in these polls and tightening in some of those senate races.

---

The question was "Is Kamala a DEI hire?" Not her blackness. Trump's answer was about race, which was terrible politically. A direct answer to the question was a lose/lose for him, which is why he should have said "your answer lies with Joe, who chose based on gender and race."

---

Actually, Trump's response was about Harris lying. Says one thing and then changes her statement based on who she is talking to.

yeah; and he's going to keep going into the belly of the beast and he'll keep answering questions directly without a script and never have the tact or couth you want him to have. ...people have known his weaknesses as a not savvy non-politician for almost 8 years now, whereas people are going to have to learn a lot about Kamala's far leftist progressivism over the next 3 months. I think the poll trends will reflect Kamala's sudden jump as a Biden relief high that will subside.

2004FIGHTINTXAG said:

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oh no said:

---

He went to a black journalist convention and was immediately asked a loaded question about Kamala's blackness, something she only leans on when convenient to herself. Trump will never answer questions with the tact or couth of a polished swindling career politician that anyone wants him to, but the sugar high of the communist voter block finding a way to oust of the geriatric senile empty suit has given them energy and life for now, until it wears out. Kamala's extreme far left progressive comments on everything will continue to be reposted and regurgitated for the next three months. Expect a bounce back in these polls and tightening in some of those senate races.

---

The question was "Is Kamala a DEI hire?" Not her blackness. Trump's answer was about race, which was terrible politically. A direct answer to the question was a lose/lose for him, which is why he should have said "your answer lies with Joe, who chose based on gender and race."

---

Actually, he tried to get the reporter to answer :what is the definition of DEI?

No matter what the media is going to make it about Race. Let 'em. Fewer and fewer people are buying it.

The good guys are F'd

I was told the betting odds are favoring Harris:

Interesting discussion on pollig.

TexAgs91 said:

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The good guys are F'd

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Democrats aren't good people

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump 45%

Survey USA #A - 1510 LV - 8/4

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 5, 2024

📊 New York GE: @SienaResearch

🟦 Harris: 53%
🟥 Trump: 39%
🟪 Other: 2%
---
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
Senate
🟦 Gillibrand (inc): 56%
🟥 Sapraicone: 33%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 52%
🟥 GOP: 37%
—
#20 (2.7/3.0) |… pic.twitter.com/gVOkGSYgYS

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 6, 2024

Biden beat Trump by 23 in NY in 2020.

Harris has taken the lead in the RCP average in both the head to head and five way race. Note where things stood in 2016 and 2020, however.

Honeymoon over?

#NEW @RedfieldWilton/@Telegraph Swing States Poll:

Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Michigan: Trump +1
Wisconsin: Tied
North Carolina: Trump +3
Florida: Trump +6
Georgia: Trump +2
Arizona: Harris +1
Nevada: Tied
Minnesota: Harris +5
New Mexico: Harris +7https://t.co/BKDjzNIlgv pic.twitter.com/jC73EtvwLU

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 6, 2024

Arizona needs to get their **** together.

Brown has a real shot to flip NV

📊 @RedfieldWilton poll

NV Senate
🟦 Rosen (inc): 41%
🟥 Brown: 38%
🟪 Other: 4%
⬜ Undecided: 16%
—
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 42%
🟥 Lake: 36%
🟪 Other: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 18%
—
PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 45%
🟥 McCormick: 40%
🟪 Other: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 11%
—
NM Senate
🟦 Heinrich… https://t.co/FK2d0m6GPw pic.twitter.com/kfOdDlj9ji

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 6, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Arizona needs to get their **** together.

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I never realized how much they must have viewed McCain as a demigod. The only explanation for how much they hate Trump...to the point where you have Republicans in that state publicly endorsing Harris...is that they loved McCain more than they love the country.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Arizona needs to get their **** together.

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These registered or likely voters? Didn't AZ have a big uptick in GOP registration?

Does the VP choice help Harrs is anyway from a poll perspective? Any initial poll results?

I just got a text from Larry Hogan campaign that they have a poll showing him up 46-41

over the far left commie Angela Alsobrooks

can't believe that is accurate but hopefully he makes the DNC spend money in Maryland!

Tramp96 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Arizona needs to get their **** together.

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I never realized how much they must have viewed McCain as a demigod. The only explanation for how much they hate Trump...to the point where you have Republicans in that state publicly endorsing Harris...is that they loved McCain more than they love the country.

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Cindy's wealth established quite a Tammany Hall machine in AZ. Hard to get elected without that machine's seal of approval.

That having been said, Megan McCain was on the Mark Halperin 2way this morning and she was horrifed (scared s***less were her exact words) of the Walz VP pick. That he was horrible on issues that Mom's would fear for their children once they knew his extreme views.