Bobaloo said:

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Some folks you just can't understand or help.

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Good thread.

3) Here are some of the shocking numbers:
*In NE2, which Trump lost by 22,000, Rs have already sliced 13,000 off that lead. This is not counting repentant indies or even Ds who see that they screwed up.
*In Maricopa County, the R gains now have MC at R+162,000, or . . .

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) August 4, 2024

RCP AVERAGE ON AUGUST 4TH SINCE 2004:

2004 - Kerry + 1.0
2008 - Obama + 2.3
2012 - Obama + 3.0
2016 - Clinton + 6.8
2020 - Biden + 7.0
2024 - Trump + 0.8

Trump is the only Republican in the last 20 years to have a polling lead on August 4th.

— Real Political Data (@RealPData) August 4, 2024

📊NEW POLL: 92% of voters believe Kamala Harris is to blame for covering up Biden’s health. @NEWSMAX pic.twitter.com/7GFVWSrAWN

— Mercedes Schlapp (@mercedesschlapp) July 28, 2024

I get hating Trump, but thinking Kamala is competent?

.@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, 3,092 LV, 7/30-8/2 https://t.co/X7CWZnhCil pic.twitter.com/nhaqes3S5O

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 4, 2024

People are just using those descriptors as "I like Kamala Harris".

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I get hating Trump, but thinking Kamala is competent?

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Many folks (you can see it from progessives who post on TexAgs) only get info from FB, Reddit, and the MSM. They are uninformed at best

Regardless of what so many people want to believe, Trump is the GOP right now. The people selected him and he won the primary. If he loses, that's only on the GOP, not Trump… well, and also the fault of several CMs.

Not the best guy but he's light years better than anything the Dems have to offer

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Regardless of what so many people want to believe, Trump is the GOP right now. The people selected him and he won the primary. If he loses, that's the only the GOP, not Trump… well, and also the fault of several CMs.

Not the best guy but he's light years better than anything the Dems have to offer

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Don't ever blame the voters for a candidate's loss. That is a fatal mistake that normally ends careers.

Right? Lol

Yall are all falling victim to recency bias. If Trump out performs the polling like he did in 2016 and 2020, he is going to have a very comfortable victory. I still don't think anyone has figured out how to poll trump. For everyone pissed that he is the nominee, don't forget he has brought a new group of voters that the GOP has never scene before. It's a group that is hard to poll too because they are complex, unconventional, and very motivated.

overseas markets, cryptos, and US futures are tanking. Things are about to get really interesting.....

DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

will25u said:

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Good thread.

3) Here are some of the shocking numbers:
*In NE2, which Trump lost by 22,000, Rs have already sliced 13,000 off that lead. This is not counting repentant indies or even Ds who see that they screwed up.
*In Maricopa County, the R gains now have MC at R+162,000, or . . .

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) August 4, 2024

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Told y'all. Omaha is going red. Trump should be throwing a ton at it with ground game and ballot harvesting

Nevada and Arizona should be easy. Georgia might be a fight but that may have been a one off couple elections. Things are more tame, and ton of new laws

I agree on Omaha, it's also a pretty cheap media market.

I think the reality of the depth of the recession/layoffs/market crash is going to drive up Trump's numbers around 5 or so percent over the next month, and the annoying/brazenly dishonest lies about the economy/open border/Biden-Harris economic policies at their convention will turn off even more 'independents.'

Their peak in polls with the quasi-Honeymoon from the swap was probably mid-week last week, around only 2 percent higher in LV polls vs. Biden pre-debate. The TDS-sufferers are going to be really sad in early November.

The only battleground she took a slight lead in during this phase was, incredibly enough, Michigan, with that wild outlier from Bloomberg of RV's driving the aberration:

2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Yea, the GOP was so dead before Trump:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_elections

" With a final total of 247 seats (56.78%) in the House and 54 seats in the Senate, the Republicans ultimately achieved their largest majority in the U.S. Congress since the 71st Congress in 1929."

You could actually make the argument that Trump killed the GOP after 2016. The GOP had won multiple election cycles by large margins. Then Trump happened.

rgag12 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Yea, the GOP was so dead before Trump:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_elections

" With a final total of 247 seats (56.78%) in the House and 54 seats in the Senate, the Republicans ultimately achieved their largest majority in the U.S. Congress since the 71st Congress in 1929."

You could actually make the argument that Trump killed the GOP after 2016. The GOP had won multiple election cycles by large margins. Then Trump happened.

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The party was dead to the VOTERS of the party. They totally abandoned their base and moved to make the media happy. A bunch of power-hungry individuals that abandoned the party. Sure, they kept power, but what did they do with that power? Continue to enable Obama.

rgag12 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Yea, the GOP was so dead before Trump:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_elections

" With a final total of 247 seats (56.78%) in the House and 54 seats in the Senate, the Republicans ultimately achieved their largest majority in the U.S. Congress since the 71st Congress in 1929."

You could actually make the argument that Trump killed the GOP after 2016. The GOP had won multiple election cycles by large margins. Then Trump happened.

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Who beats Clinton? lol

rgag12 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Yea, the GOP was so dead before Trump:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_elections

" With a final total of 247 seats (56.78%) in the House and 54 seats in the Senate, the Republicans ultimately achieved their largest majority in the U.S. Congress since the 71st Congress in 1929."

You could actually make the argument that Trump killed the GOP after 2016. The GOP had won multiple election cycles by large margins. Then Trump happened.

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You are ignoring the electoral college problem the GOP had. No candidate other than Trump was going to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

DonHenley said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Hate to break it to you, but Trump is the definition of a Rino. Spends like crazy has pretty moderate social views. Trump backed and endorsed candidates lost midterms in 2018, lost 2020, and then he told people to stay home during the GA Senate runoffs because he was still crying about losing to Joe. So if he loses, it would actually make four elections in a row he's cost the GOP. There is a reason during the open primaries dems vote for MAGA candidates - they can't win general elections.

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Kinda true, I think Trump sucks at endorsing and needs to stay out of the 2028 primaries

He is a pretty conservative president in certain areas. He vows to cut spending and the deficit this term, we shall see if he does, and that means more than putting together a budget for Mitch to burn...

That is really one of the only non conservative things he failed at. Pretty good if you ask me.

What was worse. Granting Amnesty to illegals or spending money during a pandemic??????????????

I would say amnesty from Reagan is why my High school is no longer white, and the country is getting more Hispanic every year, every since........

2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

---

Hate to break it to you, but Trump is the definition of a Rino. Spends like crazy has pretty moderate social views. Trump backed and endorsed candidates lost midterms in 2018, lost 2020, and then he told people to stay home during the GA Senate runoffs because he was still crying about losing to Joe. So if he loses, it would actually make four elections in a row he's cost the GOP. There is a reason during the open primaries dems vote for MAGA candidates - they can't win general elections.

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Kinda true, I think Trump sucks at endorsing and needs to stay out of the 2028 primaries

He is a pretty conservative president in certain areas. He vows to cut spending and the deficit this term, we shall see if he does, and that means more than putting together a budget for Mitch to burn...

That is really one of the only non conservative things he failed at. Pretty good if you ask me.

What was worse. Granting Amnesty to illegals or spending money during a pandemic??????????????

I would say amnesty from Reagan is why my High school is no longer white, and the country is getting more Hispanic every year, every since........

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Do we have evidence of him cutting spending in 17, 18 19 budget cycles?

Quote:

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Kinda true, I think Trump sucks at endorsing and needs to stay out of the 2028 primaries

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Right or wrong, good or bad, he's trying to fix the party. When the "republicans" had control of the house, they were spineless leaders that cared more about how the media treated them than their voters.

So, Trump realized if he is going to fix things, he has to get Republicans elected that will actually stand up for their voters.

So, he started trying to primary RINO's.

As was expected, the media went after these folks much like they went after the Tea Party candidates. And the republican party insiders also helped the media/left.

A couple of new national polls out this morning

📊 NATIONAL POLL: TIPP/I&I

🟦 Harris: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
---
Battlegrounds
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 47%
——
🟦 Harris: 44%
🟥 Trump: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
—
#115 (1.8/3.0) | 1,236 RV | 7/31/8/2https://t.co/CJdlcWB93i pic.twitter.com/cyitQu3XE9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

🇺🇲 National Poll: UMASS/YouGov

🟦 Harris: 46% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Other: 2%

D42/R38/I20 | N=956 | 7/29-8/1 | ±3.8%https://t.co/rGTJm61eCQ pic.twitter.com/4PbkhMsHjt

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

A new Pennsylvania poll put out by a Republican group

📊 Pennsylvania Poll by @Fabrizio_Lee
for @EarlyVoteAction(R)

🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 48%
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🟦 Harris: 45%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Fav/unfav
Trump: 47-50 (-3)
Harris: 46-51 (-5)
Biden: 37-60 (-23)
—
Job Approval
Trump recalled: 51-48 (+3)
VP Harris:… pic.twitter.com/68CEIw5mtv

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

Based on the job approval splits, I am surprised it is tied in this poll and Trump isn't up.

GenericAggie said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

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Hate to break it to you, but Trump is the definition of a Rino. Spends like crazy has pretty moderate social views. Trump backed and endorsed candidates lost midterms in 2018, lost 2020, and then he told people to stay home during the GA Senate runoffs because he was still crying about losing to Joe. So if he loses, it would actually make four elections in a row he's cost the GOP. There is a reason during the open primaries dems vote for MAGA candidates - they can't win general elections.

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Kinda true, I think Trump sucks at endorsing and needs to stay out of the 2028 primaries

He is a pretty conservative president in certain areas. He vows to cut spending and the deficit this term, we shall see if he does, and that means more than putting together a budget for Mitch to burn...

That is really one of the only non conservative things he failed at. Pretty good if you ask me.

What was worse. Granting Amnesty to illegals or spending money during a pandemic??????????????

I would say amnesty from Reagan is why my High school is no longer white, and the country is getting more Hispanic every year, every since........

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Do we have evidence of him cutting spending in 17, 18 19 budget cycles?

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Read my post, I said he failed at it and that was one of the only conservative issues he did so. He did put together a budget every year for Mitch, but your boy did not look at it.

Trump needs to put together a better effort on policy, and that is hopefully where Vance and experience comes in this term, to make it better.

I do not understand the hate, are yall mad he ruined your old Party of Bush and McCain? Lol

I love Trump so I think you're misunderstanding my point. Im 1000% most worried about our debt situation. Don't care much about anything else except for policy. I want to know who's going to address the debt problem and how they're gonna do it. Everything else is BS and just noise.

This is why it's tied with Fabrizio's PA poll:



Harris hasn't gotten tied to Biden Harris policies/economy enough yet.

nortex97 said:

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This is why it's tied with Fabrizio's PA poll:



Harris hasn't gotten tied to Biden Harris policies/economy enough yet.

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I agree with that, which is why I think spending any time discussing her race or her failing the bar exam the first time she took it, is a waste of time and opportunity. Spend the time tying her to the failed policies of the current administration and her past statements that would make her an even bigger failure - abolishing ICE, defund the police, banning everything from fracking, to red meat, to plastic straws, mandatory gun buyback, etc. She makes Joe look like the moderate that the media tried to prop him up to be.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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A new Pennsylvania poll put out by a Republican group

📊 Pennsylvania Poll by @Fabrizio_Lee
for @EarlyVoteAction(R)

🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 48%
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🟦 Harris: 45%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Fav/unfav
Trump: 47-50 (-3)
Harris: 46-51 (-5)
Biden: 37-60 (-23)
—
Job Approval
Trump recalled: 51-48 (+3)
VP Harris:… pic.twitter.com/68CEIw5mtv

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

Based on the job approval splits, I am surprised it is tied in this poll and Trump isn't up.

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Looking at the polls since her anointment. A lot of them that had this question, and had similar results, Harris's approval jumped to a positive, yet the race still came to either +1 Harris or Trump winning still

Also I noticed Trump has jumped in approval in a lot of polls as well

The only reason I think she is not maximizing poll results FROM those approval ratings..... is I believe those are probably the undecideds just excited there is a new face and for whatever reason we should be excited according to media. So guess what, they are excited and gave her the benefit of the doubt. But the funny deal is, most still picked Trump, from what I can gather.

Which means she has to do something big or something big has to happen for her to win.

Good luck with that, Biden is toast and the Obama regime knows the gig is up, they have likely sealed their lips to distance themselves. Their cover man is going down in flames, and they are not helping or touching it with a ten foot poll, even Harris has jumped ship evidently because no one knows wtf is going on around the world

.@FiveThirtyEight polling average

National
🟦 Harris: 45.3% (+1.7)
🟥 Trump: 43.6%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5.5%
——
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +1.9
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +1.3
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +0.6
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +2.0
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.0
—https://t.co/gzzAm0YpsN pic.twitter.com/x6JvWaZDS6

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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.@FiveThirtyEight polling average

National
🟦 Harris: 45.3% (+1.7)
🟥 Trump: 43.6%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5.5%
——
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +1.9
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +1.3
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +0.6
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +2.0
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.0
—https://t.co/gzzAm0YpsN pic.twitter.com/x6JvWaZDS6

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

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you mean hundreds of us on here knew what would happen a year ago, and then again a month ago when the Trump megafans were popping champagne

and we literally typed "and what happens when Harris is the nominee and she chooses Shapiro as VP"?!!

we said these things a year ago and a month ago.

and have been proven correct. unless Trump can set up a real political campaign and focus on the issues he is going to lose. just like in 2020.

if the poll posted by Captain is correct- Trump has lost the election. exactly with the 270 electoral map I posted weeks ago.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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.@FiveThirtyEight polling average

National
🟦 Harris: 45.3% (+1.7)
🟥 Trump: 43.6%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5.5%
——
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +1.9
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +1.3
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +0.6
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +2.0
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.0
—https://t.co/gzzAm0YpsN pic.twitter.com/x6JvWaZDS6

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 5, 2024

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Man they have a lot of dead weight in their averages. RCP average is a little more solid.

Not saying that because it is better for Trump either, the polls they use are superior.

Evan RCP still uses ridiculous polls, like the morning consult state polling, if on paper, would not wipe my ass with it, That said it has enough good polls to absorb that anomaly

DonHenley said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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DonHenley said:

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If Trump loses to Joe and Kamala, he's incompetent. How many elections can Trump cost the GOP?, This would make 3

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Yeah a party that was pretty much dead in 2016. Y'all are pathetic

He didn't cost them sh** look at ur Rino buddies

---

Hate to break it to you, but Trump is the definition of a Rino. Spends like crazy has pretty moderate social views. Trump backed and endorsed candidates lost midterms in 2018, lost 2020, and then he told people to stay home during the GA Senate runoffs because he was still crying about losing to Joe. So if he loses, it would actually make four elections in a row he's cost the GOP. There is a reason during the open primaries dems vote for MAGA candidates - they can't win general elections.

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Somebody said it!