Muh Polls

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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:30a, 8/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Is McLaughlin a Republican pollster?

if so that is another very bad poll for Trump

if it's "unbiased" then a very good poll
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to LMCane • 10:35a, 8/1/24
AG
Yeah, or maybe, he actually won both of them and he was correct?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to LMCane • 10:38a, 8/1/24
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Is McLaughlin a Republican pollster?

if so that is another very bad poll for Trump

if it's "unbiased" then a very good poll
How is that a bad poll for Trump even if the pollster is R ran?

You are falling off the cliff.

Add 3 to it and it is still a good poll for Trump. Trump is not going to win the national, you can expect him to lose it by 1~3 pts

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Artorias
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In reply to LMCane • 10:47a, 8/1/24
AG
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Is McLaughlin a Republican pollster?

if so that is another very bad poll for Trump

if it's "unbiased" then a very good poll
Wha?! Any national poll showing Trump with a lead is a hugely positive indicator. Do I expect him to maintain a lead in national polling going forward? No. But if he is within a couple points in national polls, that bodes well for electoral results.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 10:56a, 8/1/24
AG
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-

he was dead wrong about the 2020 and 2022 elections- claimed Trump would win Arizona and Georgia.


Dead wrong? They effing cheated.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:58a, 8/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


These look good. The approval ratings will start coming down on Kamala soon

The way she talks is so annoying, that ghetto in your face crap talking, so unattractive.

I am fully expecting women to be more split than what is being polled right now. I do not think women end up liking her honestly, and if it is close to being split than the race is over.

Trump needs to max out his men support
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Barnyard96
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:01a, 8/1/24
AG
Her campaign speeches are all platitudes and no substance.

"Im going to end corporate greed" type *****
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oh no
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In reply to LMCane • 11:08a, 8/1/24
AG
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-

he was dead wrong about the 2020 and 2022 elections- claimed Trump would win Arizona and Georgia.
too many of these pundits don't account for the cheating, just like the cheating isn't built into the models for any of these predictions or any of the polls.

cheating will be rampant again, but that's for a different thread.

the things that might be different this time, as far as I can tell, and might make the polls slightly more reliable, are: 1) at least one swing state (AZ? GA?) might have actually done something regarding election integrity, 2) lack of covid scamdemic fear pr0n possibly reducing the volume of mass-mailings in some states, and 3) possibility after the disaster of the current installed administration that people like zuckerberg could be less motivated to fund as much $ for NGOs like CTCL to run the mailing and collection operations.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:12a, 8/1/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


These look good. The approval ratings will start coming down on Kamala soon

The way she talks is so annoying, that ghetto in your face crap talking, so unattractive.

I am fully expecting women to be more split than what is being polled right now. I do not think women end up liking her honestly, and if it is close to being split than the race is over.

Trump needs to max out his men support


Black men can't stand her. Not all, many.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to oh no • 11:15a, 8/1/24
oh no said:
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-

he was dead wrong about the 2020 and 2022 elections- claimed Trump would win Arizona and Georgia.
too many of these pundits don't account for the cheating, just like the cheating isn't built into the models for any of these predictions or any of the polls.

cheating will be rampant again, but that's for a different thread.

the things that might be different this time, as far as I can tell, and might make the polls slightly more reliable, are: 1) at least one swing state (AZ? GA?) might have actually done something regarding election integrity, 2) lack of covid scamdemic fear pr0n possibly reducing the volume of mass-mailings in some states, and 3) possibility after the disaster of the current installed administration that people like zuckerberg could be less motivated to fund as much $ for NGOs like CTCL to run the mailing and collection operations.
Georgia will be secure, a lot more than 2020. Kemp has passed a lot of laws

Arizona idk what they have done. I do know RFK erases the Dems cheating advantage, he grabs 2~4 pts from the Dem total in almost all polls and that is in Nevada too.
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oh no
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:17a, 8/1/24
AG
watch out for immense pressure for RFKj to drop out then. think he stays in it and gets on all 50 states' ballots?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 11:27a, 8/1/24
Barnyard96 said:
Her campaign speeches are all platitudes and no substance.

"Im going to end corporate greed" type *****
She is so ghetto the way she talks it is just cringe. Then she like completely changes tone to sound like Obama in some sentences. So weird

The debates will be interesting, If i am the RNC I am asking for the mics to be cut like the first debate..

Watching some of the 2020 VP debate, Pence tried to interrupt her once and she had a good sound bite, "Mr VP I am talking, thank you" or something.

You do not want that at all to happen, she will try to get Trump riled up more than we have ever seen. Trump just needs to ignore her and keep it to policy. Let her look like the ass
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Barnyard96
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:33a, 8/1/24
AG
Trump will respond "you are speaking, but you're not saying anything"

Anyway sorry to derail, back to polls.
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samurai_science
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 11:34a, 8/1/24
Barnyard96 said:
Her campaign speeches are all platitudes and no substance.

"Im going to end corporate greed" type *****
Thats all it takes for liberals
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to oh no • 11:34a, 8/1/24
oh no said:
watch out for immense pressure for RFKj to drop out then. think he stays in it and gets on all 50 states' ballots?
Yes there is no way he drops out. His campaign has been drained with legal battles to get on the ballots. It is too much of a effort to just toss it out.

The reason his campaign is not taking off is because the Dems are draining his coffers with legal battles.

But even though he is drained, he does really really good in Nevada and Arizona for whatever reason.
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LMCane
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:39a, 8/1/24
2023NCAggies said:
AtticusMatlock said:
The election is less than 100 days away. Very easy to do almost no campaigning and have the media and celebs campaign for you. Just like we were telling Trump to shut up after the debate so Biden could flounder, Harris will try the same. She's not going to do any unscripted interviews.


That's an eternity in politics lmao Go cry in the corner

War all over, inflation, and 20 million illegals wrecking havoc in cities. No one can buy a house

And y'all think she can just hide? She's doing rallies, which means she plans to do a lot more. Why do y'all think they switched Biden out?

So she could bring the base together and campaign, at least give them a shot and help them down ballot. I'm not seeing where that says "hide out"

Get ready for debates and two furious parties going at each other. All while independents sit and at 70-30 lean R

Surprise. Blowout Rs.

Cannot wait for media meltdowns

wow if you were correct you would be a millionaire from PredictIt electoral college betting.

unfortunately you aren't. Harris has a better shot at a blowout than Trump does.

but I would gladly take a bet on that with you.
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Barnyard96
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12:03p, 8/1/24
AG

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Rockdoc
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In reply to LMCane • 12:06p, 8/1/24
AG
A Harris blowout? Really? Other than your TDS, how did you calculate that?
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to LMCane • 12:08p, 8/1/24
LMCane said:
2023NCAggies said:
AtticusMatlock said:
The election is less than 100 days away. Very easy to do almost no campaigning and have the media and celebs campaign for you. Just like we were telling Trump to shut up after the debate so Biden could flounder, Harris will try the same. She's not going to do any unscripted interviews.


That's an eternity in politics lmao Go cry in the corner

War all over, inflation, and 20 million illegals wrecking havoc in cities. No one can buy a house

And y'all think she can just hide? She's doing rallies, which means she plans to do a lot more. Why do y'all think they switched Biden out?

So she could bring the base together and campaign, at least give them a shot and help them down ballot. I'm not seeing where that says "hide out"

Get ready for debates and two furious parties going at each other. All while independents sit and at 70-30 lean R

Surprise. Blowout Rs.

Cannot wait for media meltdowns

wow if you were correct you would be a millionaire from PredictIt electoral college betting.

unfortunately you aren't. Harris has a better shot at a blowout than Trump does.

but I would gladly take a bet on that with you.
I cannot wait for your meltdown as well
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bobbranco
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:01p, 8/1/24
AG
Will be glorious melt.
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Captn_Ag05
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1:11p, 8/1/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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1:13p, 8/1/24
AG


Trump won Ohio by 8 in 2020, so this would be slight movement towards him.

Senate candidates continue to lag. Really need to pick off this seat to ensure control of senate in case Kamala wins.
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oh no
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:21p, 8/1/24
AG
and sherrod brown is not a good candidate, so the excuse of Moreno being a bad candidate doesn't hold much water. R's need to throw some funding and effort to Moreno
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TRM
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In reply to oh no • 1:27p, 8/1/24
AG
Moreno needs to self-fund. NRSC needs to use the money in other races.

Ohio seems to like squish candidates though. DeWine won in a blowout and Vance really underperformed compared to other statewide Ohio races.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to oh no • 1:48p, 8/1/24
AG
Sherrod Brown is a GREAT candidate. Very populist and very responsive back home. He is viewed almost Joe Manchin-esque, despite a far more liberal voting record.
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LMCane
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1:52p, 8/1/24
Can we post PredictIt polls since it is literally the votes of people putting their money on who they think are going to win elections?

just made $281 on Shapiro being the VP choice.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to TRM • 1:53p, 8/1/24
TRM said:
Moreno needs to self-fund. NRSC needs to use the money in other races.

Ohio seems to like squish candidates though. DeWine won in a blowout and Vance really underperformed compared to other statewide Ohio races.
It is a moderate Republican state, similar to Texas. Bunch of Dade Phalen types running as Republicans and winning easily.

The GOP in that state would be wise to adopt the DeSantis playbook on turning states hard RED
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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:55p, 8/1/24
how bad do you have to be as a Republican candidate to underperform Trump by 13 points in Ohio?!?!

in 2020 Republicans across the country overperformed Trump from his final vote totals.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 1:58p, 8/1/24
Drahknor03 said:
Sherrod Brown is a GREAT candidate. Very populist and very responsive back home. He is viewed almost Joe Manchin-esque, despite a far more liberal voting record.
Yeah that sounds like someone that would win there, fake Moderate.

Moreno better hope he catches Trumps tailwind, Trump needs to have advertising with him standing with Moreno and talking about Browns voting record

At the end, If you vote this November for me, please vote for my friend Moreno~Trump

Same thing needs to be played over and over in Montana, which I am less worried about. Tester will lose but we need all the seats we can get
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to LMCane • 2:09p, 8/1/24
LMCane said:
Can we post PredictIt polls since it is literally the votes of people putting their money on who they think are going to win elections?

just made $281 on Shapiro being the VP choice.
I bet he has turned her down, Shapiro if the choice would have been announced by now. She has zeroed in on him from the beginning.

Since he's a Jew, they prefer someone else. You cannot have two Jews around the ticket, Harris's husband is a Jew. I do not see them doubling down

More names keep coming up in her search, like today I saw a Michigan Senator Gary Peters on the list. That tells us one thing, a lot of people are turning her down.

People say Roy Cooper was not a real candidate, that is BS. He would have put NC in contention and Georgia closer to victory. Harris kicked her campaign off in Atlanta. Cooper turned her down, probably because even he knows she is a nut job

So much momentum yet she cannot lock down a VP
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Captn_Ag05
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2:19p, 8/1/24
AG




What a dumb poll question.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:45p, 8/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:




What a dumb poll question.
I am guessing the unknowing crowd is the Independents that haven't dialed in yet

Most people do not pay attention until the last couple months. People freak out about the mail in ballot early voting, but those are mostly base voters and old people. People that have made their minds up, also this includes ballot stuffing period
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Captn_Ag05
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2:49p, 8/1/24
AG
Updated polling averages on RCP. It looks like third party candidates are now hurting Trump as democrat leaning independents that were bothered by Biden's debate senility and open to third party candidates have gotten behind Harris.



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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:06p, 8/1/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Updated polling averages on RCP. It looks like third party candidates are now hurting Trump as democrat leaning independents that were bothered by Biden's debate senility and open to third party candidates have gotten behind Harris.



Lol I do not believe the third party BS on Trump. Where it matters is swing states, it helps Trump more than hurts. Mainly Nevada and Arizona. He changes very little in the rust belts.

He pulls a lot of support from Trump in New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, states that no longer matter.

A rust belt Independent is not going to pull the lever for RFK if the decision is between Trump or RFK in their mind. Especially if they are hurting monetarily. That is something polls cannot predict right now
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Captn_Ag05
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10:50a, 8/2/24
AG
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