Harris wins easily

I don't understand how somebody can make that statement. There is zero data out there to support such a prediction.

Barnyard96 said:

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I don't understand how somebody can make that statement. There is zero data out there to support such a prediction.

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It really all boils down to 'all hail leftism'. Once you realize that then it all makes sense as to how people can make such statements and even worse how people can keep voting D no matter what name is attached to it.

I honestly don't understand how there are still people on our side who are just now realizing it's a team sport. At least half the country, maybe more, is going to vote Dem no matter what because they aren't Republicans. The overwhelming majority on our side are also voting primarily against Dems. The candidate just doesn't matter much.

There are more Dems, and so unless more of them just stay home, which is unlikely with Trump running, we're going to lose. You guys who want to focus on "Look at this quote" and "Look at this voting record" are wasting your time, the other side is watching their own chosen media and will never see any of that and if they do they'll be told it's a lie anyway. Stalin would get at least 49%.

This pearl clutching is worthless.

Go out and vote. In the meantime, smell the roses and enjoy your family.

Anddd Trump has consistently outperformed his polling by 3-5 points. So be weary of all the doom and gloom if things are close come Election Day.

Unless she's stays in the basement, no amount of PR is going to make up for her having to debate Trump and talk to the American people before the election. She's going to be the highest she'll ever be in the next couple of weeks and that's it.

The RCP average shows the following as of today:

General - Trump +1.2
AZ - Trump +6.4
NV - Trump +10.0
WI - Trump +0.7
MI - Trump +1.0
PA - Trump +3.0
GA - Trump +4.5

"No Toss Up Map" - Trump wins 312 to 226

With Toss Ups - Trump Leads 219 to 208, with 111 EVs as TU's...

Again...RCP uses an average of what they consider to be the better polls... They do not focus on any single poll...

NV +10 is surprising. Is that the no tax for tips effect?

2023NCAggies said:

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Man yall need to straighten up, it has been a week since Biden dropped out and nothing but glorifying Harris as the next Obama but a woman. Erasing her history. Raising huge sums of money.

Guess what, the worst poll I have seen for Trump is -2 nationally.

A lot of these polls are dogsh** btw, another way to drum up the fake hype. A lot of polling breakdowns do not make sense at all and it makes the polls look dumb AF and not trustworthy

And just something to think about, Trump outperformed the national polls by around 3~5 pts the last two elections. These polls still show a blowout

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I'll add this...

At this point in 2020, Biden was +8.4 in the RCP average...Biden "won" by +4.5...

Artorias said:

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NV +10 is surprising. Is that the no tax for tips effect?

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Nevada has been going towards RED since Reid retired. They finally have a Republican Governor and Laxhalt lost the senate race by like 8k votes in 2022.

This looks like the year it finally goes RED in the presidential

Too bad the R senate candidate isn't Laxhalt again, he probably would win this one

Not a coincidence Reid died and a year later a Republican was elected Governor and Laxhalt almost won, his cheat apparatus is collapsing finally

Artorias said:

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NV +10 is surprising. Is that the no tax for tips effect?

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Nevada hasn't had a poll conducted since Biden dropped and Kamala became the candidate. The polls they are using are from back before Kamala became the greatest thing since sliced bread.

2023NCAggies said:

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Man yall need to straighten up, it has been a week since Biden dropped out and nothing but glorifying Harris as the next Obama but a woman. Erasing her history. Raising huge sums of money.

Guess what, the worst poll I have seen for Trump is -2 nationally.

A lot of these polls are dogsh** btw, another way to drum up the fake hype. A lot of polling breakdowns do not make sense at all and it makes the polls look dumb AF and not trustworthy

And just something to think about, Trump outperformed the national polls by around 3~5 pts the last two elections. These polls still show a blowout

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I agree with the sentiment around your posts wholeheartedly. But gotta correct you a little on the numbers.

Trump outperformed 2016 by 1.4% and 2020 by 3.5%. I had a post a while back about it, it's still a huge number though.

At this time 4 years ago, the polls had Biden at +9.1%. If it's now at worst Harris +2% then that's a 7% point swing in Trump's favor. That is absolutely massive. The only way I would start to get concerned is if we're in the beginning of October and polling is consistently showing Harris +4.5% or so. That's when it'll start getting hairy, but right now Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016.

FireAg said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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Man yall need to straighten up, it has been a week since Biden dropped out and nothing but glorifying Harris as the next Obama but a woman. Erasing her history. Raising huge sums of money.

Guess what, the worst poll I have seen for Trump is -2 nationally.

A lot of these polls are dogsh** btw, another way to drum up the fake hype. A lot of polling breakdowns do not make sense at all and it makes the polls look dumb AF and not trustworthy

And just something to think about, Trump outperformed the national polls by around 3~5 pts the last two elections. These polls still show a blowout

---

I'll add this...

At this point in 2020, Biden was +8.4 in the RCP average...Biden "won" by +4.5...

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At this point in 2016, Hillary and Trump were tied in the polls and she was up 3.4 in the average on election day.

FireAg said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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Man yall need to straighten up, it has been a week since Biden dropped out and nothing but glorifying Harris as the next Obama but a woman. Erasing her history. Raising huge sums of money.

Guess what, the worst poll I have seen for Trump is -2 nationally.

A lot of these polls are dogsh** btw, another way to drum up the fake hype. A lot of polling breakdowns do not make sense at all and it makes the polls look dumb AF and not trustworthy

And just something to think about, Trump outperformed the national polls by around 3~5 pts the last two elections. These polls still show a blowout

---

I'll add this...

At this point in 2020, Biden was +8.4 in the RCP average...Biden "won" by +4.5...

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Polls were actually 9.1% for Biden at this point in time 4 years ago. But in the two week lead up to November they dwindled down to 7.6% or so. Trump beat the polls by 3.5% or so in 2020 and about 1.5%ish or so in 2016.

EDIT:
Hard to assume with only 2 years of data, but I would average turnout to be ~2.5% for Trump.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Lichtman, who apparently has correctly predicted every presidential election says "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."

I mean...what the **** America.

What the absolute ****.

This vapid, idiotic moron has literally done NOTHING meaningful in her life. She fornicated her way to the top, never owned a small business, never managed a payroll, never created a single job (never even had a real job), nothing.

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You should watch Idiocracy

This does draw focus to the media going all in, subverting search results, burying stories.

The great gaslighting has begun!

FireAg said:

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The RCP average shows the following as of today:

General - Trump +1.2
AZ - Trump +6.4
NV - Trump +10.0
WI - Trump +0.7
MI - Trump +1.0
PA - Trump +3.0
GA - Trump +4.5

"No Toss Up Map" - Trump wins 312 to 226

With Toss Ups - Trump Leads 219 to 208, with 111 EVs as TU's...

Again...RCP uses an average of what they consider to be the better polls... They do not focus on any single poll...

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Exactly. And there are always going to be more garbage polls than good ones. This is why I exclaimed Trump's poll lead would be the friday of the GOP convention and then the shenanigans would begin. They had to.

It's still exceptionally grim for the communists, which is why the betting markets still favor Trump heavily.



People running for the hills are buying into RV push polls, and spin imho.

Joes said:

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There are more Dems, and so unless more of them just stay home,

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this has been the case for quite some time... and it at least made elections swing back and forth over several decades so the march to socialism could be slowed at times because a large part of their voter base is historically unmotivated to exercise their right.

..but now that they have found a way to take all the effort out by turning absentee voting into a mass-mailing operation, they no longer need to have good candidates, they don't need to be persuasive or motivating or inspiring, they don't even really need to campaign, and they don't need GOTV concerts or anything. Now they just have well-funded NGOs to fill out the mailing applications, collect the mail, fill out or help fill out the ballots, collect and return the ballots. Most secure elections ever they say. Combine that the effort to exercise your right is removed- they do it for you- with controlling 95% of pravda MSM scaring the masses about the opposition as threats to democracy/radical/extremist/racist/domestic terrorists, and there you have it: They impoverished enough citizens to make them socialist voters, motivated some more useful idiots, and taken the effort out to vote.

Who knows what the real percentage is, but Dems do the best job at getting their votes harvested.

oh no said:

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Joes said:

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There are more Dems, and so unless more of them just stay home,

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this has been the case for quite some time... and it at least made elections swing back and forth over several decades so the march to socialism could be slowed at times because a large part of their voter base is historically unmotivated to exercise their right.

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I agree with you most of the time but I think the D portion of the electorate is actually shrinking, relative to the R portion. For instance, the recent Atlas survey:



A 0.5% D advantage over R is not what folks were using in any previous cycle. Further, there is plenty of evidence a 'lot' of Dems are not motivated this cycle. Whether it is disaffected muslims over Biden-Harris Middle East policies, BLM, labor union blocks, or just folks angry about the invasion/crime/economy, they face real headwinds in voter turnout the republicans just…don't.

Demotivated voters staying home is what Rs need, for sure.

My point about their voter base outnumbering republicans is more based on the fact that 40% of Americans don't pay income tax. Once you get that many impoverished government-dependent people, if you can get them to vote, they'll always vote for free stuff, which means more government, higher taxes for you, and ultimately, socialism.

Combine that with Pravda scaring people about their baby murdering rights, and the regime importing tens of millions of new voters with speeches about "path to amnesty" for all, they'll always outnumber the anti-socialist voter base, if they aren't lazy. Now with what they did to absentee voting, it's all done for them.

Now, if the pro-hamas faction is disenfranchised, if GA and AZ actually passed some election integrity laws, and if elitists like Zuckerberg aren't as motivated to fund the mailing operations against, then maybe some of these polls will be a bit more reliable.

oh no said:

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My point about their voter base outnumbering republicans is more based on the fact that 40% of Americans don't pay income tax. Once you get that many impoverished government-dependent people, if you can get them to vote, they'll always vote for free stuff, which means more government, higher taxes for you, and ultimately, socialism.

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Last I saw it was more like 50% don't pay any income tax on a net basis. "Net" meaning if you receive refundable credits that are more than your tax bill, then you aren't paying any taxes.

Opinion of Kamala Harris:

Favorable: 50% [+7]
Unfavorable: 46% [-5]

[+/- change vs July 22-24]

Morning Consult | RVs | July 26-28https://t.co/RI5a7YHg36 https://t.co/HlPDVLqu6d pic.twitter.com/Ou8z6navDi

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 29, 2024

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @MorningConsult

🟦 Harris: 47% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 46% [+1]
🟪 Other: 4%

[+/- change vs July 22-24]

#116 (1.8/3.0) | 11,538 RV | 7/26-28https://t.co/RI5a7YHg36 pic.twitter.com/XfkDhCoW0A

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 29, 2024

Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

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Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

---

Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

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There's not going to be enough time for her to gaffe. As long as she's the nominee she'll get the D votes + the "anyone but Trump" votes

McInnis 03 said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

---

Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

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There's not going to be enough time for her to gaffe. As long as she's the nominee she'll get the D votes + the "anyone but Trump" votes

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There's roughly 100 days until the election, plenty of time.

The key thing is Trump needs to control Trump to avoid saying stupid things that hurt him. He can absolutely win this election if he'll focus relentlessly on her record and positions. His platform is more acceptable to 51%+ of the population than hers, by far.

McInnis 03 said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

---

Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

---

There's not going to be enough time for her to gaffe. As long as she's the nominee she'll get the D votes + the "anyone but Trump" votes

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There are a dozen years of Kamala spewing idiotic leftist rhetoric on record. The fact the receipts are out there drives the Democrats and their regime media to heights of gaslighting rarely seen in an attempt to save her from her past.

Putting lipstick on this pig will be a hard sale, especially after the piggy starts squealing at the convention.

McInnis 03 said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

---

Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

---

There's not going to be enough time for her to gaffe. As long as she's the nominee she'll get the D votes + the "anyone but Trump" votes

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Well, he's winning right now so…

McInnis 03 said:

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MemphisAg1 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Scary thing on that is the Harris favorability rating among independents going from 31% to 48%.

---

Dems and Indies who lean D are so relieved it's not Biden that it makes them ecstatic over Harris.

But the things that caused her to have high unfavorable ratings will return when the "relief buzz" wears off and she starts talking in public. There's a reason why she couldn't even win a Dem delegate in 2020.

---

There's not going to be enough time for her to gaffe. As long as she's the nominee she'll get the D votes + the "anyone but Trump" votes

---

So the race is over already?

There's a lot more to shake out. It could really go either way. I too chuckle at the overreacting right now.

Were you not expecting a bump? We haven't even made it to August. Just wait for the convention to wrap up and then the games begin. The biggest difference between now and four years ago is Elon. He's tilting the gaslighting game. It's a hell of a lot easier for all of us to share a tweet with facts/video that we could before. I think that is a huge benefit and will help us all expose Kamala for the whorish empty suit she is.

dreyOO said:

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There's a lot more to shake out. It could really go either way. I too chuckle at the overreacting right now.

Were you not expecting a bump? We haven't even made it to August. Just wait for the convention to wrap up and then the games begin. The biggest difference between now and four years ago is Elon. He's tilting the gaslighting game. It's a hell of a lot easier for all of us to share a tweet with facts/video that we could before. I think that is a huge benefit and will help us all expose Kamala for the whorish empty suit she is.

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Of course there's still a lot to shake out, but I think the "overreaction" you are referring to is pretty understandable. We've seen an attempted assassination get absolutely buried and actively censored by media and big tech. We've seen a coup go down against the current president. We've seen unprecedented coordination, gaslighting, massive swaths of news stories deleted, polls that defy logic, and huge amounts of money being brazenly laundered through ACTBLUE without consequence. All that in TWO WEEKS. Show me in history where we've seen anything close to that and I'll chuckle at the overreaction, too.

And, yes, thank the Lord for Elon.

outofstateaggie said:

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dreyOO said:

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There's a lot more to shake out. It could really go either way. I too chuckle at the overreacting right now.

Were you not expecting a bump? We haven't even made it to August. Just wait for the convention to wrap up and then the games begin. The biggest difference between now and four years ago is Elon. He's tilting the gaslighting game. It's a hell of a lot easier for all of us to share a tweet with facts/video that we could before. I think that is a huge benefit and will help us all expose Kamala for the whorish empty suit she is.

---

Of course there's still a lot to shake out, but I think the "overreaction" you are referring to is pretty understandable. We've seen an attempted assassination get absolutely buried and actively censored by media and big tech. We've seen a coup go down against the current president. We've seen unprecedented coordination, gaslighting, massive swaths of news stories deleted, polls that defy logic, and huge amounts of money being brazenly laundered through ACTBLUE without consequence. All that in TWO WEEKS. Show me in history where we've seen anything close to that and I'll chuckle at the overreaction, too.

And, yes, thank the Lord for Elon.

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We can't do crap about it until we win. This election is huge. If y'all can help, please do. I just donate. I am not a salesman or door knocking type.

Just get ready to receive 20 texts a day asking for more lol but they stop after the election