Muh Polls

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Hungry Ojos
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10:50a, 7/29/24
The Lake race proves unequivocally why the left is so much better at politics than the right. The left nominated Biden, then saw that they had made a huge mistake, then said "screw democracy, we need to win" and simply took another bite at the apple by swapping in Harris.

Lake is getting annihilated in the polls versus the Dem, head to head. So while we still have a chance to alter course and nominate someone more favorable, Republicans won't do it. They will simply watch their candidate get beat by double digits and throw their hands up.

Kari Lake is why republicans suck at politics.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 10:54a, 7/29/24
AG
Keep in mind, Lake hasn't won the primary yet. She under polling amongst Republicans. Many of those will come home after the primary. It saying she's going to win. Just saying it will be closer in September post primary.
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oh no
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:04a, 7/29/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
The Lake race proves unequivocally why the left is so much better at politics than the right. The left nominated Biden, then saw that they had made a huge mistake, then said "screw democracy, we need to win" and simply took another bite at the apple by swapping in Harris.

Lake is getting annihilated in the polls versus the Dem, head to head. So while we still have a chance to alter course and nominate someone more favorable, Republicans won't do it. They will simply watch their candidate get beat by double digits and throw their hands up.

Kari Lake is why republicans suck at politics.
she has a primary challenger. and he isn't beating her. what do you suggest republicans do? you can't just say pick someone else. Who?

Lake has recordings of old republican guard bribing her not to run. She's running anyway and will get the most republican votes in the primary. That is the republicans trying to do what you want, and the people in AZ being against it. Why republicans suck is they are not backing her up and supporting her enough and they're not attacking the radical open border nut Gallego enough. Maybe that will happen once she secures the nomination.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to oh no • 11:06a, 7/29/24
AG
oh no said:
Hungry Ojos said:
The Lake race proves unequivocally why the left is so much better at politics than the right. The left nominated Biden, then saw that they had made a huge mistake, then said "screw democracy, we need to win" and simply took another bite at the apple by swapping in Harris.

Lake is getting annihilated in the polls versus the Dem, head to head. So while we still have a chance to alter course and nominate someone more favorable, Republicans won't do it. They will simply watch their candidate get beat by double digits and throw their hands up.

Kari Lake is why republicans suck at politics.
she has a primary challenger. and he isn't beating her. what do you suggest republicans do? you can't just say pick someone else. Who?

Lake has recordings of old republican guard bribing her not to run. She's running anyway and will get the most republican votes in the primary. That is the republicans trying to do what you want, and the people in AZ being against it. Why republicans suck is they are not backing her up and supporting her enough and they're not attacking the radical open border nut Gallego enough. Maybe that will happen once she secures the nomination.
Republicans will back her in the general. It is the fact that she gets smoked with independents, which is about a third of Arizona voters.
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Barnyard96
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11:10a, 7/29/24
AG

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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:12a, 7/29/24
AG
Republicans are why Republicans suck at politics.... we hold a standard to folks and refuse to support the nominee if they don't fit all of the moral standards the voter subjectively holds. Meanwhile, the democrats will support anything with a pulse, regardless of how deviant and immoral that person is, if they have a (D) next to their name.

That is an area I would like to see the party improve but it is with the voters and not the candidates. Vote for your candidate in the primary and then support the nominee regardless of its that person. Way too many CMs that are butt hurt "their" candidate didn't win.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:14a, 7/29/24
AG
Democrats can't wait to vote in the coconut tree lady




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2023NCAggies
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In reply to oh no • 11:19a, 7/29/24
oh no said:
Lake should already be governor. She is tough on crime and immigration/border security. Lamb seems great too.

Unfortunately for Lake, the left and msm have made her out to be a nut bar for questioning election integrity and too many people have taken that bait. So maybe Lamb pulling ahead would be best for R victory, but it's unlikely. Lake will win the primary and then lose the senate race for Sinema's seat in the general to Gallego, an open border radical. What will be interesting is if Kamala Harris picks Kelly as her running mate. That would open AZ's other senate seat.
Someone should have paid Sinema to run as an Independent
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Captn_Ag05
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11:45a, 7/29/24
AG
Media has been working overtime to prop up Kamala and it appears to be working. Imagine a world with a neutral media vs one that is an extension of the DNC.



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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:47a, 7/29/24
AG
For now…
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LMCane
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 11:51a, 7/29/24
Barnyard96 said:
Not a chance? That's one of the likely scenarios
LMAO if you believe that Donald Trump is going to win ALL of:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada

I have always liked your posts but if you believe that- it's just fanciful.

there is literally a better chance on the prediction markets that HARRIS wins all of them rather than Trump winning all of them!
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GenericAggie
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In reply to LMCane • 12:30p, 7/29/24
AG
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
Not a chance? That's one of the likely scenarios
LMAO if you believe that Donald Trump is going to win ALL of:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada

I have always liked your posts but if you believe that- it's just fanciful.

there is literally a better chance on the prediction markets that HARRIS wins all of them rather than Trump winning all of them!


Trump wins MI, AZ. Others are a toss up. Down to less than 1% either way.
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Joes
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 12:32p, 7/29/24
ttha_aggie_09 said:
Republicans are why Republicans suck at politics.... we hold a standard to folks and refuse to support the nominee if they don't fit all of the moral standards the voter subjectively holds. Meanwhile, the democrats will support anything with a pulse, regardless of how deviant and immoral that person is, if they have a (D) next to their name.

That is an area I would like to see the party improve but it is with the voters and not the candidates. Vote for your candidate in the primary and then support the nominee regardless of its that person. Way too many CMs that are butt hurt "their" candidate didn't win.
Yep, I agree. I've always looked at politics as a place for practicality, not principles. That doesn't mean I'm immoral, it means I don't get, and don't expect to get, my morals from politicians.

They're just tools, they're not my "leaders" and they don't "represent the best of their communities" and they damn sure don't enter politics to "serve their country".

I'm gonna vote for the best candidate that has a chance of winning based purely on how closely they'll adhere to the policies I prefer. I've never eliminated a candidate based on some pet issue if most of their positions are good and I honestly don't care if they cheated on their wives or don't go to the "right" church or any of that crap. They only exist to me to vote to promote policies that protect the sovereignty of the country, advance free enterprise, restrict government, and enforce the Constitution. I don't want anything else from them except to leave me alone. Too many folks are looking for father figures and people to "follow". Yuck.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to oh no • 12:34p, 7/29/24
AG
oh no said:
Lake should already be governor. She is tough on crime and immigration/border security. Lamb seems great too.

Unfortunately for Lake, the left and msm have made her out to be a nut bar for questioning election integrity and too many people have taken that bait. So maybe Lamb pulling ahead would be best for R victory, but it's unlikely. Lake will win the primary and then lose the senate race for Sinema's seat in the general to Gallego, an open border radical. What will be interesting is if Kamala Harris picks Kelly as her running mate. That would open AZ's other senate seat.
The right has rightfully made out Kamala as an idiot and have said that Joe & Kamala have stolen the election, but she is neck & neck with Trump. The key factor is the MSM. They are a threat to national security.
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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TexAgs91
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12:36p, 7/29/24
AG
What is this excrement with the obvious clickbait headline?



link
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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Joes
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 12:38p, 7/29/24
TexAgs91 said:
oh no said:
Lake should already be governor. She is tough on crime and immigration/border security. Lamb seems great too.

Unfortunately for Lake, the left and msm have made her out to be a nut bar for questioning election integrity and too many people have taken that bait. So maybe Lamb pulling ahead would be best for R victory, but it's unlikely. Lake will win the primary and then lose the senate race for Sinema's seat in the general to Gallego, an open border radical. What will be interesting is if Kamala Harris picks Kelly as her running mate. That would open AZ's other senate seat.
The right has rightfully made out Kamala as an idiot and have said that Joe & Kamala have stolen the election, but she is neck & neck with Trump. The key factor is the MSM. They are a threat to national security.
I'm with you, except that you see through it and I see through it, which means the real problem is that too many people are a combination of too stupid/gullible and/or too apathetic to be dependable as serious voters. And there always seem to be more of them.
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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:50p, 7/29/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Any chance Lamb could pull this out still? I think he would be a much stronger candidate in the general election and could really hammer law and order and border issues, which would further help Trump.




1) Democrats literally run a coup against a sitting President to install an unelected candidate who will be stronger in the general election

2) Republicans in Arizona have a chance to vote between a former Obama supporting news reader who ALREADY lost a statewide election during the "red wave" of 2022 and a stronger law and order Republican.

OF COURSE the Republicans will put up the weaker candidate!
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agsalaska
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In reply to LMCane • 1:20p, 7/29/24
AG
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Any chance Lamb could pull this out still? I think he would be a much stronger candidate in the general election and could really hammer law and order and border issues, which would further help Trump.




1) Democrats literally run a coup against a sitting President to install an unelected candidate who will be stronger in the general election

2) Republicans in Arizona have a chance to vote between a former Obama supporting news reader who ALREADY lost a statewide election during the "red wave" of 2022 and a stronger law and order Republican.

OF COURSE the Republicans will put up the weaker candidate!
Kari Lake is an election denier. That plays well on anonymous message boards but I am sure it is a huge turnoff with the electorate at large, especially those that are not partisans. Partisans believe anything there are told but they will not win you an election by themselves. My guess is the independents and more moderate Republicans are turned off by the fraud narrative.

Then of course when they question the fraud narrative out loud they are shouted down by the partisans who do nothing but call them names and insult their intelligence. So then they just don't vote this time around or get pushed to the Dems.

People like Kari Lake kill the Republican Party.


To keep this relative to the thread, Kari Lake is obvious proof that Republicans don't know how to poll or what to poll in Arizona. It should be fairly obvious that she is a terrible candidate.
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Captn_Ag05
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1:39p, 7/29/24
AG
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 1:41p, 7/29/24
AG
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
Not a chance? That's one of the likely scenarios
LMAO if you believe that Donald Trump is going to win ALL of:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada

I have always liked your posts but if you believe that- it's just fanciful.

there is literally a better chance on the prediction markets that HARRIS wins all of them rather than Trump winning all of them!


Cant he clear 270 with just one rust belt state?
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 1:49p, 7/29/24
Yes. As long as he keeps GA and N. Carolina. Along with capturing 1 of NV and AZ.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:11p, 7/29/24
AG






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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:14p, 7/29/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
oh no said:
Lake should already be governor. She is tough on crime and immigration/border security. Lamb seems great too.

Unfortunately for Lake, the left and msm have made her out to be a nut bar for questioning election integrity and too many people have taken that bait. So maybe Lamb pulling ahead would be best for R victory, but it's unlikely. Lake will win the primary and then lose the senate race for Sinema's seat in the general to Gallego, an open border radical. What will be interesting is if Kamala Harris picks Kelly as her running mate. That would open AZ's other senate seat.
Great, Lake could lose a state wide election for a third time.
WE ALL KNOW THIS IS COMING
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LMCane
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 2:15p, 7/29/24
Barnyard96 said:
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
Not a chance? That's one of the likely scenarios
LMAO if you believe that Donald Trump is going to win ALL of:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada

I have always liked your posts but if you believe that- it's just fanciful.

there is literally a better chance on the prediction markets that HARRIS wins all of them rather than Trump winning all of them!


Cant he clear 270 with just one rust belt state?

I was replying to the original poster who stated Trump would REPEAT 2016 AND ADD NEVADA

no way senor.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 2:18p, 7/29/24
AG
Got it, yeah i'm mixing posts.

Its a stretch, but I wouldn't put it in the no way category.
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Aggie_2463
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2:19p, 7/29/24
AG
Who would trust Kamala to handle a crisis? You mean like the border CZAR handled the illegal immigrant crisis.....?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:31p, 7/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
I want to come back to this. Gallup tracks this each month. I pulled the historical data. In July of 2020, party ID with leaners was 42%Republican, 48% Democrat. It is currently 47% Republican, 41% Democrat. July of 2016 was 43% each R/D.

Republicans have recovered from the dip in party ID after the Trump conviction (at which point it was 44% R/48%D).

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gOKi4/55/#
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Hungry Ojos
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2:33p, 7/29/24
Lichtman, who apparently has correctly predicted every presidential election says "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."

I mean...what the **** America.

What the absolute ****.

This vapid, idiotic moron has literally done NOTHING meaningful in her life. She fornicated her way to the top, never owned a small business, never managed a payroll, never created a single job (never even had a real job), nothing. She went straight from law school (after failing the bar, of course) into a government job. And more than half of America still comes to the conclusion "yes, Kamala Harris is who I want making major decisions in my life." Kamala ****ing Harris.

We deserve everything we are about to get. I can't stand when politicians say things like "Americans are not dumb, they see through this..." Bull***** Americans are ****ing idiots. Absolute ****ing spoon fed, selfish, lazy, idiots.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/historian-predicted-election-1984-reveals-likely-win-trump-harris-matchup
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Philip J Fry
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2:34p, 7/29/24
AG
Almost every*
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:45p, 7/29/24
AG
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oh no
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:49p, 7/29/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
Lichtman, who apparently has correctly predicted every presidential election says "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."

I mean...what the **** America.

What the absolute ****.

This vapid, idiotic moron has literally done NOTHING meaningful in her life. She fornicated her way to the top, never owned a small business, never managed a payroll, never created a single job (never even had a real job), nothing. She went straight from law school (after failing the bar, of course) into a government job. And more than half of America still comes to the conclusion "yes, Kamala Harris is who I want making major decisions in my life." Kamala ****ing Harris.

We deserve everything we are about to get. I can't stand when politicians say things like "Americans are not dumb, they see through this..." Bull***** Americans are ****ing idiots. Absolute ****ing spoon fed, selfish, lazy, idiots.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/historian-predicted-election-1984-reveals-likely-win-trump-harris-matchup
the masses must vote for the marxist regime's chosen puppet because the other guy would be much worse, of course. the anti-communist candidate would be a threat to our democracy, duh! he wants to take away your baby killing rights. he already said there will be a blood bath and he will be a dictator. marxism is better than that. /surprised you didn't know that .gif
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 2:58p, 7/29/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
Not a chance? That's one of the likely scenarios
LMAO if you believe that Donald Trump is going to win ALL of:

Wisconsin
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Nevada

I have always liked your posts but if you believe that- it's just fanciful.

there is literally a better chance on the prediction markets that HARRIS wins all of them rather than Trump winning all of them!


Cant he clear 270 with just one rust belt state?
Yes, but he'd have to win AZ and GA as well.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:58p, 7/29/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
Lichtman, who apparently has correctly predicted every presidential election says "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."

I mean...what the **** America.

What the absolute ****.

This vapid, idiotic moron has literally done NOTHING meaningful in her life. She fornicated her way to the top, never owned a small business, never managed a payroll, never created a single job (never even had a real job), nothing. She went straight from law school (after failing the bar, of course) into a government job. And more than half of America still comes to the conclusion "yes, Kamala Harris is who I want making major decisions in my life." Kamala ****ing Harris.

We deserve everything we are about to get. I can't stand when politicians say things like "Americans are not dumb, they see through this..." Bull***** Americans are ****ing idiots. Absolute ****ing spoon fed, selfish, lazy, idiots.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/historian-predicted-election-1984-reveals-likely-win-trump-harris-matchup
I don't think there is really any model that could account for all of the things that we have seen this election cycle.

I think there is a really good chance Harris does win, but his model is largely worthless this cycle.
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PA24
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3:08p, 7/29/24
AG
Georgia is blue.

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outofstateaggie
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3:09p, 7/29/24
AG
Demoralizing.
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