The Trump campaign is just taking blow after blow after blow from Dem marketing, so this is probably affecting the polls. The question is, what will they do about it?

Waffledynamics said:

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The Trump campaign is just taking blow after blow after blow from Dem marketing, so this is probably affecting the polls. The question is, what will they do about it?

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Wait for Kamala to have the nomination officially and then unload. If they over attack now and hit a chord, could dissuade the DNC from giving it to her.

The debate(s) will do her in.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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The Trump campaign is just taking blow after blow after blow from Dem marketing, so this is probably affecting the polls. The question is, what will they do about it?

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Wait for Kamala to have the nomination officially and then unload. If they over attack now and hit a chord, could dissuade the DNC from giving it to her.

The debate(s) will do her in.

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I hope you're right. I really hope and pray you're right.

Her VP record is nonexistent. She accomplished absolutely nothing. Her one task, 'Border Czar', was a complete and utter failure.

Can use her California AG record against her again too.

Need her to be doing well in the polls then select Mayor Pete as VP.

Then go all out on
Border czar failure
Inflation
Endless money to Ukraine
Has ignored big cities as a woman of color
Crime increases
BLM riots and bail fund support
Ban off shore drilling and fracking
Supports AOC's green new deal
Free healthcare for illegals
Treating illegal crossings as a civil crime not criminal
Tax hikes
Abolish ICE
Border agents whipped the Haitians
Smollett modern day lynching
Does not condemn Palestinian protests and destruction by enforcing law


Mayor Pete is a disaster just ask anybody that flies on a plane much less the train derailments and the 7 EV charging stations built with 500 billion dollars allocated

LMCane said:

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agsalaska said:

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techno-ag said:

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https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/07/24/cnn-poll-73-of-democrats-want-someone-other-than-kamala-harris-as-nominee/

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I am pretty sure that number was about 70% for Biden, so roughly the same.

It makes me wonder if there is anybody at all on the left that would run(Mrs Obama is not running) that would not see similar numbers. In other words is there anyone that would make the left happy right now.

I kind of doubt it. If there is someone I don't know who it would be.

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Mark Kelly would be a very strong candidate- what would Trump attack him on?

we dodged a bullet by avoiding Michelle Obama or Kelly or even Whitmer or Shapiro

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Why are you so damn scared of their VP pick?

None of those people make a difference minus Obama. Shapiro your hero is a jew that will cost them Michigan and probably Minnesota. Whitmer does nothing but deliver Michigan maybe

Kelly lol your secondary hero. He might make Arizona competitive, MIGHT. I think you forget RFK is most popular in Arizona and Nevada, they would be lucky to get within 1 point in Arizona

Nobody likes Kamala. Nobody. She got bump off half-dead Joe via media blitz, but it will be short lived.

She will lose because she is simply terrible, and from a failed administration, and an even worse state.

Barnyard96 said:

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Nobody likes Kamala. Nobody. She got bump off half-dead Joe via media blitz, but it will be short lived.

She will lose because she is simply terrible, and from a failed administration, and an even worse state.

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you underestimate the amount of propaganda and support including censorship that will go into making her liked.
And don't underestimate the silliness of the rudderless masses. She hits all those age-related areas that were hurting Biden in the polls.
But all she has to be, just like weakass biden, is a better alternative than orange man. and just for a few months.

📊 @UNHSurveyCenter Survey

NEW HAMPSHIRE
🟦 Harris: 53% (+7)
🟥 Trump: 46%
---
🟦 Harris: 49% (+6)
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
——
MAINE
🟦 Harris: 54% (+9)
🟥 Trump: 45%
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🟦 Harris: 48% (+8)
🟥 Trump: 40%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
#29 (2.6/3.0) | 7/23-25 | 2,875 LV… pic.twitter.com/rTKDF6wme0

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 25, 2024

Biden led Trump by 3 in NH when this pollster polled the state in late May. Slight movement to Harris.

Texas velvet maestro said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Nobody likes Kamala. Nobody. She got bump off half-dead Joe via media blitz, but it will be short lived.

She will lose because she is simply terrible, and from a failed administration, and an even worse state.

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you underestimate the amount of propaganda and support including censorship that will go into making her liked.
And don't underestimate the silliness of the rudderless masses. She hits all those age-related areas that were hurting Biden in the polls.
But all she has to be, just like weakass biden, is a better alternative than orange man. and just for a few months.

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Independents in swing states decide elections.

Megyn Kelly interviews the Emerson pollster that has Harris with the bump.

Interesting analysis. Not surprising that some of the youth vote that was anti-Biden more on age than policy have started coming back to Harris.

But which youth vote? He contradicts the CNN clip.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Interesting analysis. Not surprising that some of the youth vote that was anti-Biden more on age than policy have started coming back to Harris.

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So, they are cool with the policies, but he was just too old? They're not saying his policies are directly connected to his age and worldview? They just don't like him because he's old?

Lord help us.

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Need her to be doing well in the polls then select Mayor Pete as VP.

Then go all out on
Border czar failure
Inflation
Endless money to Ukraine
Has ignored big cities as a woman of color
Crime increases
BLM riots and bail fund support
Ban off shore drilling and fracking
Supports AOC's green new deal
Free healthcare for illegals
Treating illegal crossings as a civil crime not criminal
Tax hikes
Abolish ICE
Border agents whipped the Haitians
Smollett modern day lynching
Does not condemn Palestinian protests and destruction by enforcing law


Mayor Pete is a disaster just ask anybody that flies on a plane much less the train derailments and the 7 EV charging stations built with 500 billion dollars allocated

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100% what Trump and Vance should be talking about. Start with the press will try to scrub the history and Harris is trying to run towards the center for just four months. It is why she wasn't in a primary where she would have to truly express her stance, but let me give it to you. Then roll through the list. Do it over and over again.

Persuadable voters – those that don’t immediately say they’re voting for Harris or Trump – represent 13% of likely voters.  Persuadables lean to Trump over Harris by 37-28% with 35% unable to decide right now.

Read more here: https://t.co/d6oFfmQy9O

— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) July 25, 2024

A second NH out today poll showing a shift to Harris compared to Biden. NH is one of those states that really doesn't matter. If Trump were to win it, it would be a huge electoral blow out.

St. Anselm College @nhiop poll of New Hampshire voters

Harris 50
Trump 44
RFK, Jr 3

In June the same poll had Biden up 44-42 over Trump.#nhpolitics

— James Pindell (@JamesPindell) July 25, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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A second NH out today poll showing a shift to Harris compared to Biden. NH is one of those states that really doesn't matter. If Trump were to win it, it would be a huge electoral blow out.

St. Anselm College @nhiop poll of New Hampshire voters

Harris 50
Trump 44
RFK, Jr 3

In June the same poll had Biden up 44-42 over Trump.#nhpolitics

— James Pindell (@JamesPindell) July 25, 2024

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I think the traditional Dems in blue States are coming home. So the pipe dreams Rs have had about flipping NH, NJ, NY, MN are just that. Pipe dreams.

I'd put VA in that category as well.

Focus needs to be on holding leads in NC, GA, and AZ, and then either PA or MI. Don't waste time on the other states.

Hopefully Kamala doesn't pick Cooper or Shapiro as her running mate because that could potentially make her the favorite in their respective state.

Meh, some I's might be buying the hype, but wait till they get to know her.

Yeah I am not surprised by the honeymoon bump….

TX04Aggie said:

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Yeah I am not surprised by the honeymoon bump….

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Yep give it a few days. Especially after she opens her mouth about policy, if she dares talk about it. Border czar indeed!

will25u said:

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Persuadable voters – those that don’t immediately say they’re voting for Harris or Trump – represent 13% of likely voters.  Persuadables lean to Trump over Harris by 37-28% with 35% unable to decide right now.

Read more here: https://t.co/d6oFfmQy9O

— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) July 25, 2024

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Who the hell can't decide at this point?

a lot people will say they will vote Harris so they don't look racist and that they want to support t first woman president but won't pull the lever for her.

outofstateaggie said:

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will25u said:

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Persuadable voters – those that don’t immediately say they’re voting for Harris or Trump – represent 13% of likely voters.  Persuadables lean to Trump over Harris by 37-28% with 35% unable to decide right now.

Read more here: https://t.co/d6oFfmQy9O

— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) July 25, 2024

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Who the hell can't decide at this point?

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Bingo! Everybody has decided but some are saying and some aren't. This flood of polls coming out is just war planning between the media and polling companies.

A lot of the newer polls being released are not the same as those from before. Moving from Dem +1 to Dem +5/Dem +6 doesn't mean the polls actually shifted 4 pts. I can poll Rep +3 and shift them the other way.

Harris will get some bump, but this is 100% a narrative justifying dumping Biden and justifying selecting Harris without an open convention.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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A second NH out today poll showing a shift to Harris compared to Biden. NH is one of those states that really doesn't matter. If Trump were to win it, it would be a huge electoral blow out.

St. Anselm College @nhiop poll of New Hampshire voters

Harris 50
Trump 44
RFK, Jr 3

In June the same poll had Biden up 44-42 over Trump.#nhpolitics

— James Pindell (@JamesPindell) July 25, 2024

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NH may be the weirdest voting state in the nation and they simply don't like trumps Republican Party and will look for any excuse to go elsewhere.

Rockdoc said:

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TX04Aggie said:

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Yeah I am not surprised by the honeymoon bump….

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Yep give it a few days. Especially after she opens her mouth about policy, if she dares talk about it. Border czar indeed!

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This, she is still on the first date. A bit down the road the blemishes will start to show.

I remember Hillary was ahead in the polls, right up until part of the way through election day.

one safe place said:

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Rockdoc said:

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TX04Aggie said:

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Yeah I am not surprised by the honeymoon bump….

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Yep give it a few days. Especially after she opens her mouth about policy, if she dares talk about it. Border czar indeed!

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This, she is still on the first date. A bit down the road the blemishes will start to show.

I remember Hillary was ahead in the polls, right up until part of the way through election day.

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Most don't remember this but Hillary started losing her lead when the FBI came out and performed a press conference declaring the FBI was not going to prosecute her for those emails. That was about 2 weeks prior to the Nov. 2016 election.

Also, there was a surge of working class men who toppled Hillary's numbers. I interviewed Dick Morris right before the Nov 2026 election. He sounded like Steve Bannon back then.

My piece on Dick Morris is here.

Independents Only-
Trump: 53% (+20)
Harris: 33%
Someone Else: 9%
Not Sure: 5%

Consistent with our prior Biden results. Inflation & Invasion are the dominant issues. https://t.co/ezJLmxWVnV

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 26, 2024

LOL. This is pretty funny:



These guys (who have nothing to do with Scott of course any longer) are really knocking the Reuters/Ipsos 'Harris is leading/outperforming Biden' poll:

Anyone who wonders whether to believe polls like ours, with Trump beating the snot out of Harris, or those with Harris slightly up... know this:

The betting odds haven't changed: pic.twitter.com/4s2JztltMB

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) July 26, 2024

I'm not seeing any solid data supporting Harris suddenly ticking upward.

how much did Trump lose Michigan by in 2020?

this is pretty much becoming a must win state at this point. here is some good news.

anyone know the final polling average in 2020? was it like Biden +6?

DDHQ Polling Average Update: 2024 Presidential (Michigan)

🟥 Donald Trump (R): 49.6% (+2.0)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 47.6%

This is R+1.8% since last week.

This average is based on 4 polls.https://t.co/kQIP0QRvOr

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 25, 2024

Twice an Aggie said:

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A lot of the newer polls being released are not the same as those from before. Moving from Dem +1 to Dem +5/Dem +6 doesn't mean the polls actually shifted 4 pts. I can poll Rep +3 and shift them the other way.

Harris will get some bump, but this is 100% a narrative justifying dumping Biden and justifying selecting Harris without an open convention.

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QFT...

To give Kamala a perceived boost now that she is in the race, pollsters with an agenda are skewing the results.

The current makeup of voters is somewhere pretty much in the middle when it comes to R to D. My guess is somewhere between D+1 to R+2, leaning a little more towards the R+1.

At this point, the polls are all over the place, and there definitely appears to be some manipulation going on with several of them.

LATEST POLLING/ELECTORAL COLLEGE IMPACT

Who needs a 2000 word diatribe when two pictures can say the same thing? :) pic.twitter.com/FKr3TBOizL

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) July 26, 2024

SIAP

The latest NYT poll writeup quotes the woman who was convicted of planting a severed finger in her Wendy's chili https://t.co/ua52hBfyvc pic.twitter.com/Q1uD7Px1S8

— Gilad Edelman (@GiladEdelman) July 25, 2024