First of all who is "They"?

Because "They" seem to be in turmoil

LMCane said:

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so are we going to keep posting polls here in the "Official" thread or move to the newly created Harris/Trump Polls thread?

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We should stay here. This thread has all of the pulling at State level too and is being moderated keeping the conspiracy and cheat crap out of it.

Harry Enten is pretty great even though he works for CNN. let's pray this is correct.

CNN's Harry Enten Sounds Alarm On How 'Difficult' It'll Be For Kamala Harris To 'Beat Donald Trump' pic.twitter.com/tLui8t5mDN

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 23, 2024

The polls aren't really reflecting the fact that like Trump, Harris will have people who vote for her because she's a liberal. That percent is what, 35-40%? Trump has as similar number? Then some will vote for others (5%)?

This will come down to which candidates the independents can stomach. Harris polled horrifically with independents in the primary when she was knocked out in 2020.

Republicans need to be playing an ad where she was named border czar, show headlines of border crisis, cut to interview of her saying she hasn't been to the border but also hasn't been to Europe, and then cue her laughing. Drive up her negatives (which is already really high).

As long as Trump keeps up this strategy of shutting his mouth (as much as possible), polling should be good to him.

FireAg said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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How bad was Biden doing that they chose Harris? lol

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Their internals had to be significantly worse…

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I do not believe they had a choice. I think the polls were about the same internally.

They had to force him to withdraw because he can barely function and the gig was up, could not campaign. Even though polling was probably similar, but they need a younger candidate that can get out there and campaign to close it at least a little bit or at least have a chance.

I think they saw the down ballots possibly put in danger if Biden could not campaign and fund raise.

I believe this cost them a couple seats in the senate. Arizona, Ohio, Montana are likely gone. And take your pick of one or two from Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Nevada and New Mexico. I think it ends up 54-46. Which is one of the worst scenario's for Ds

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Republicans need to be playing an ad where she was named border czar, show headlines of border crisis, cut to interview of her saying she hasn't been to the border but also hasn't been to Europe, and then cue her laughing. Drive up her negatives (which is already really high).

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LOVE THIS

check this out boys- probably not an exact accurate score as of July 23 but pretty interesting that Trump is doing BETTER in Wisconsin now against Harris than he was against Biden a week ago

DDHQ Polling Average Update: 2024 Presidential (Wisconsin)

🟥 Donald Trump (R): 48.7% (+1.8)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 46.9%

This is R+0% since last week.

This average is based on 7 polls.https://t.co/LdspYQGn4V

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 23, 2024

Everyone agree that if Trump has even a 1 or 2% national lead that is a pretty big Electoral College win?

#New General Election Poll

🔴 Trump 49% (+5)
🔵 Harris 44%

FAU B+ - 711 LV - 7/21 pic.twitter.com/ceuxwKSKJ0

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024

I think that's the general consensus with the way votes would be spread out across the swing states if Trump actually won the popular vote.

We are going to see things all over for a bit. That's why I think we need to wait a week or two to let things settle a bit. Trump is on a high from the assassination goodwill and the convention but Harris is in a honeymoon stage. The 40% on each side are settled, but the 20% may have a lot of movement

If Trump begins polling at near 50% nationally, that would be a big deal for him. I've always considered 47% to be his ceiling... even for 2024 against Biden.

You are…correct.

This is the 'boss' at Trump's primary polling outfit, fwiw;

Trump pollster agrees with me. https://t.co/J5bx6nPYha pic.twitter.com/uHxlD9J1RQ

— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) July 23, 2024

I expect to see some wild swings/numbers over the next couple weeks, and some hot takes on those numbers of course. Everyone should probably brace for whatever the 'narrative' will be and various 'hot takes' around that but recognize it for what it is, imho.

Why would Trump have a bad debate against Harris?

Trump would do well to adopt the strategy he unveiled in the first part of his acceptance speech as wanting to be everyone's president and lay off strident personal attacks and focus on issues.

.@Reuters National Poll:

🔵Harris 42% (+4)
🔴Trump 38%
🟡Kennedy 8%.@Ipsos, 1,018 RV, 7/22-23 https://t.co/qk43H0kS8Q

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024

No surprise the "polls" are already showing Harris gaining and/or leading. Gotta set the narrative for the inevitable "win" amid all the irregularities on election night.

They bought that poll


Real clear has them all


https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

2024 General Election: Morning Consult

🟥Trump 47%
🟦Harris 45%

RCP Avg: Trump +1.9

This Day In History:
July 23, 2020: Biden +8.7
July 23, 2016: Clinton +2.0

More:https://t.co/Y148bbWvd5#poll #politics #election2024 #Trump #Harris #vote #polling @MorningConsult

— RealClearPolling (@RCPolling) July 23, 2024

CNN's Enten: Trump Now At His Highest Favorability Rating Ever, Running Five Points Ahead Of 2020 Election Resultshttps://t.co/f2OnFz1nqk

"The fact is, if you've got a tie in the national popular vote, that is probably not good enough if you're Kamala Harris." pic.twitter.com/jF29rgTAxI

— RCP Video (@rcpvideo) July 23, 2024

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

PJYoung said:

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SA68AG said:

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Trump would do well to adopt the strategy he unveiled in the first part of his acceptance speech as wanting to be everyone's president and lay off strident personal attacks and focus on issues.

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Except that's impossible for him.

He started off great and then went off script at the RNC and started rifting and SURPRISE! went right back to his old playbook of personal attacks. Trump's worst enemy is Trump.

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thats why a lot of people liked him in 2016. he talked crap to those that talked crap to conservatives since 2008.

so he may be his own worst enemy with 5% of potential voters, but his attitude and demeanor gain 5% from somewhere else.


i think he already has the 'i love trump' crew. if he can gain a few of the self proclaimed concerned moderates .. hell yes!

2024 National GE, Among Definitely Voters:

Harris 47%
Trump 47%
.
Harris 45% (+2)
Trump 43%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 0%
Oliver 0%

.@maristpoll/@NPR/@NewsHour, 1,117 RV, 7/22 https://t.co/1iie4NxeKd

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024

Barnyard96 said:

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Why would Trump have a bad debate against Harris?

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It's probably an anticipation that after the 'fair' debate in round 1 (when the leviathan was beginning the push to expel Biden), we can expect the questions/moderators/format to return to the norm of the past 30 years and heavily favor the Democrat.

Trump's first debate was so thoroughly one sided/dominant it is functionally impossible, in other words, to match in round 2 vs. Kamala or anyone else, especially after a few weeks of 'mixed' polls etc. The networks will want to show an 'energized' crowd and 'youthful' Kamala, likely pushing somehow that Trump was/will be 'bullying' her.

nortex97 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Why would Trump have a bad debate against Harris?

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It's probably an anticipation that after the 'fair' debate in round 1 (when the leviathan was beginning the push to expel Biden), we can expect the questions/moderators/format to return to the norm of the past 30 years and heavily favor the Democrat.

Trump's first debate was so thoroughly one sided/dominant it is functionally impossible, in other words, to match in round 2 vs. Kamala or anyone else, especially after a few weeks of 'mixed' polls etc. The networks will want to show an 'energized' crowd and 'youthful' Kamala, likely pushing somehow that Trump was/will be 'bullying' her.

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Trump has already came out and said it should be on Fox now with the Dems latest Shenanigans

Captn_Ag05 said:

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2024 National GE, Among Definitely Voters:

Harris 47%
Trump 47%
.
Harris 45% (+2)
Trump 43%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 0%
Oliver 0%

.@maristpoll/@NPR/@NewsHour, 1,117 RV, 7/22 https://t.co/1iie4NxeKd

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 23, 2024

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This was the only poll that had Biden up +2, on 7-9. LmAo

RFK pulling more from Trump is a joke at this point. Of his votes I am willing to bet 75% or more are DEM supporters, lean Dem independents.

Worked against Hillary.

Polls are fun.

Dems broadcasting that they're going to lean on any poll that highlights Harris leading Trump so they can slip their election cheating under the rug….not fun.

They're stealing the **** out of this election. 2020 was a prude Baptist girl compared to what's coming in November

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time this cycle, Donald Trump has taken a lead in the Marist Poll.

And for those wondering:

It was a D+6/D+5 sample (It was D+1 in 2020). pic.twitter.com/sMoUKS8qSg

— Real Political Data (@RealPData) July 23, 2024

normalhorn said:

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Polls are fun.

Dems broadcasting that they're going to lean on any poll that highlights Harris leading Trump so they can slip their election cheating under the rug….not fun.

They're stealing the **** out of this election. 2020 was a prude Baptist girl compared to what's coming in November

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Yep. They are not exactly being shy about it either. WI supreme court ruled in favor of unmonitored drop boxes. Gee, I wonder what possible logical reason you would do that? Must be to help insure free and fair elections!

For over a year now, I've been assuming that Harris would be the eventual nominee, and the DNC simply has to figure out how to make 93MM votes appear. They (the media) can't tout her as being exponentially more popular than PedoJoe and not have her come up with less than 81 million votes.

normalhorn said:

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Polls are fun.

Dems broadcasting that they're going to lean on any poll that highlights Harris leading Trump so they can slip their election cheating under the rug….not fun.

They're stealing the **** out of this election. 2020 was a prude Baptist girl compared to what's coming in November

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I do not see that in this election right now, it is too far of a gap to close and huge risk

2020 you had the cover of COVID, Twitter and Facebook. You have none of that this election, on top of that you have 3 DEM third parties taking votes. You also now have a pissed off Billionaire in Musk who is likely pouring in 50+ million a month for the Rs and he now controls Twitter.

Plus there are reports that a good portion of their mega donors are not contributing and are not happy about Harris at the top.

You have to have a lot of money to get a large cheat orchestrated, and at best they will be lucky to break even with the Rs on cash raised this election. Trump has probably raised over 200 million this month

Kamala Harris up only 2% in a poll that had 13% more Democrats than Republicans (426 D vs. 376 R).

Lots of spin with these polls, but behind closed doors the Democrats can't be feeling too optimistic. https://t.co/Cc93XZ3kZd pic.twitter.com/3meH2gqxFP

— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) July 23, 2024

NEW NPR/PBS/MARIST POST-DROPOUT POLL

Trump is winning:

- Double haters by 7
- 34% of black voters
- 39% of Latinos
- Independents (both genders) by double digits
- Suburban voters by 8
- 46/45 overall

This same pollster had Harris winning 50/49 not long ago pic.twitter.com/K3r9tA1Y6p

— 29 years and counting (@jheiser41261) July 23, 2024

Trump has 34% of the black vote in the NPR/Marist Poll, leads among whites by the same margin he led Biden, and among indies by a larger margin than he led Clinton.

The partisan advantage is D+6.

SMH.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) July 23, 2024