Muh Polls

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LMCane
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9:15a, 7/15/24
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LMCane
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9:36a, 7/15/24
LMAO

NBC News topline reported Biden 40 Trump 37 when it was really Trump 40 Biden 37 so all the polling was incorrect by 6 points

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LMCane
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11:06a, 7/15/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to LMCane • 11:06a, 7/15/24
AG
Was that the poll that the left was cheering about just a few days ago?
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LMCane
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1:36p, 7/15/24
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LMCane
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 1:36p, 7/15/24
SwigAg11 said:
Was that the poll that the left was cheering about just a few days ago?
correct! but it is more that the NBC analysis fed into the statistics for a lot of the other polls
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to LMCane • 1:44p, 7/15/24
AG
LMCane said:
Shocking that all the sheep on the left mirror what their media masters feel should happen.
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LMCane
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1:49p, 7/15/24
From Nate Silver

Last update: 2:00 p.m, Monday, July 15: A series of YouGov state polls today shows bad numbers for Biden plus, one of the few good numbers for him from yesterday turned out to be a pollster's typo.

Biden's average projection is now 238 electoral votes, his lowest number to date.

Note that almost none of this data yet takes into account the effects of the attempted assassination against Donald Trump.
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Science Denier
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In reply to LMCane • 1:53p, 7/15/24
AG
Quote:
A series of YouGov state polls today shows bad numbers for Biden plus, one of the few good numbers for him from yesterday turned out to be a pollster's typo.
Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh. That is pretty damn good!!
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nortex97
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:40p, 7/15/24
AG
Yeah I don't want to call 'peak Trump 2024' for this weekend's numbers coming up but it is tough to see how it could get much better at this point;
Quote:
As things stand, Trump is in position to win an electoral landslide. Pennsylvania, once reasonably believed to be a lost cause, has come full circle, and now this is just the latest of many polls showing the former president up big there. Nevada remains a very interesting contest as well, with it being a reliably blue state for years. Things have obviously changed there, and Trump has consistently led there for many months.

Perhaps the biggest news of the day polling-wise was a survey that Trump is losing in, though. According to the newest Times/Sienna poll, Trump is only down three points in Virginia, a state he lost by 10 points in 2020.
It's possible that his getting shot by a deranged leftist in Penn helped him there disproportionately. But Virginia?



Quote:
To put it succinctly, if Trump is only down three points in a state like Virginia, he's going to cruise to re-election. That is the kind of margin that spells doom for Democrats across the allotment of the purple states. If Trump were to pick Glenn Youngkin as his running mate (that answer will come within hours of this article being published), it would lock the election up, in my opinion.
(Edit to add: I hit post too soon, but of course Trump didn't take my own advice freely offered to pick Youngkin.)
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nortex97
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5:53a, 7/16/24
AG
Young voters abandoning democrats in droves;

Quote:
Daniel Cox aka The Liberal Patriot wrote Monday, "A mounting number of polls suggest that young voters are shedding their Democratic attachments" and that "the way young people relate to the two major political parties is undergoing a momentous change."

A recent Pew study found that "young Americans are evenly divided between the parties: 47 percent lean towards or identify as Republicans and 46 percent identify as Democrats."

Look at these other numbers from Gallup. They're unsustainable for the so-called Party of Youth.


More at the link.
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Science Denier
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:32a, 7/16/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Young voters abandoning democrats in droves;

Quote:
Daniel Cox aka The Liberal Patriot wrote Monday, "A mounting number of polls suggest that young voters are shedding their Democratic attachments" and that "the way young people relate to the two major political parties is undergoing a momentous change."

A recent Pew study found that "young Americans are evenly divided between the parties: 47 percent lean towards or identify as Republicans and 46 percent identify as Democrats."

Look at these other numbers from Gallup. They're unsustainable for the so-called Party of Youth.


More at the link.
1. K-12 teaches kids socialism is great
2. College students are reinforced
3. Young kids start off huge libs
4. Real world teaches these kids that socialism sucks.
5. Real world teaches them that law and order are important
6. Real world teaches them that competition and winning is how they will get wealth
7. They convert.

Only reason the numbers for the libs are as high as they are being reported is that there are way more art history majors living off their parents and the government than in the past.
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oh no
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7:40a, 7/16/24
AG
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:41a, 7/16/24
local news radio here in the DMV (DC/Maryland/Virginia) reported this morning

Trump leading Biden in Virginia but within margin of error

and obviously these guys are lefties at all the 24 hour news radio stations.
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Science Denier
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In reply to oh no • 7:46a, 7/16/24
AG
oh no said:


Trump is living proof of what the establishment republicans fear. Standing up to the media is a winning strategy. The establishment loves the parties, the hobnobbing and the inside power they get by giving the media their lower. Trump showed the Republican voters they don't have to take that from their politicians.

Yea, the first guy thru the wall gets bloody. But hopefully the wave continues and the number of republicans with an actual backbone takes over the party.
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Barnyard96
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8:38a, 7/16/24
AG

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2023NCAggies
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11:56a, 7/16/24
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

There is a new poll on here 3w insights. Polled 2,426 likely voters with a +4 lead for Trump

Do not know much about this poll but it is a Dem polling company, for a Dem pac.

If it is +4 with that many LV polled and a Dem polling station, this is going to be a blowout by Trump
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LMCane
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12:46p, 7/16/24
Representative Adam B. Schiff, the California Democrat who is running for Senate, warned during a private meeting with donors on Saturday that his party was likely to suffer overwhelming losses in November if President Biden remained at the top of the ticket, according to two people with direct knowledge of Mr. Schiff's remarks at the meeting.

If Mr. Biden remained, not only would he lose to former President Donald J. Trump, he could be enough of a drag on other Democratic candidates that the party would most likely lose the Senate and miss an opportunity to win control of the House, Mr. Schiff said at a fund-raiser in New York.

"I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose," Mr. Schiff said during the meeting, according to a person with access to a transcription of a recording of the event. "And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House."

www.hotair.com
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 4:32p, 7/16/24
AG
I grew up on WMAL and the morning zoo…

330?

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oh no
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 4:39p, 7/16/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:

hung cao is awesome for VA. Same with Lt Gov Robinson running for governor in NC. How are these guys not receiving tailwind from Trump's surges (and for Cao, tailwind from youngkin success) in these polls?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to oh no • 4:45p, 7/16/24
AG
Voting Kaine and a 3rd party Pres is my guess
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oh no
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 5:56p, 7/16/24
AG
But Why? If VA can elect Youngkin and have Trump leading in polls, why isn't Hung Cao kicking ass there? He's great!
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to oh no • 5:59p, 7/16/24
AG
oh no said:
Barnyard96 said:

hung cao is awesome for VA. Same with Lt Gov Robinson running for governor in NC. How are these guys not receiving tailwind from Trump's surges (and for Cao, tailwind from youngkin success) in these polls?
I live in Virginia and haven't heard Cao's name. Kaine on the other hand is a national name with big name recognition.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 6:03p, 7/16/24
AG
Just spent a week there. Great state. Will visit again.
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oh no
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 6:05p, 7/16/24
AG
Kaine is a career politician and was on Killary's presidential ticket. Hung is a bad ass. R's need to invest.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to oh no • 6:06p, 7/16/24
AG
Easy name to market.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to oh no • 6:10p, 7/16/24
AG
oh no said:
Kaine is a career politician and was on Killary's presidential ticket. Hung is a bad ass. R's need to invest.
Before he was Hillarys VP he served as Lieutenant Governor and Governor of Virginia and was also the DNC chair. He's extremely well known in VA.
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oh no
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 6:19p, 7/16/24
AG
DCAggie13y said:
oh no said:
Kaine is a career politician and was on Killary's presidential ticket. Hung is a bad ass. R's need to invest.
Before he was Hillarys VP he served as Lieutenant Governor and Governor of Virginia and was also the DNC chair. He's extremely well known in VA.
like I said, career politician
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TequilaMockingbird
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9:48p, 7/16/24
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will25u
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10:05p, 7/16/24

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oh no
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11:16p, 7/16/24
AG
So how does Trump lead all these polls in NC, and NC is swinging from leaning to likely R or whatever, yet Lt Gov Robinson is behind in polls for NC gov?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to will25u • 12:28a, 7/17/24
That forecast has Trump at 268 with just the "lean" and "likely" states.

If that map holds and he flips back the NE 2nd district with the Dems pulling out all the stops in the midwest (sweeping PA, MI, WI)...Electoral College tie.
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nortex97
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In reply to oh no • 5:58a, 7/17/24
AG
Robinson is running against an incumbent who is fairly popular and not demented/treasonous.

The VCU poll in VA was also just 'adults' I think. The Silver bulletin, if you click on Virginia, still has Biden up a couple. It's a tough pull for Trump, and why I favored putting Youngkin on the ballot, but oh well, the upper Midwest matters a lot too.
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LMCane
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In reply to oh no • 8:16a, 7/17/24
oh no said:
But Why? If VA can elect Youngkin and have Trump leading in polls, why isn't Hung Cao kicking ass there? He's great!
maybe because Cao has zero electoral success, is not that well known, and Kaine was the VP candidate in 2016?
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LMCane
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In reply to oh no • 8:16a, 7/17/24
oh no said:
So how does Trump lead all these polls in NC, and NC is swinging from leaning to likely R or whatever, yet Lt Gov Robinson is behind in polls for NC gov?
because people like Trump better than Robinson. not everyone is a hard core Christian.
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