Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to Rapier108 • 8:58a, 7/12/24
AG
For a guy who doesn't believe in polls you sure enjoy coming over to post one each time it can sound scary about Trump.

Anyway (as our president would say), most of the senate polls this week are actually good news, showing incumbents on the Dem side too close for comfort if not losing, I don't believe for a second Cruz is only up 2 on the communist here:

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AggieUSMC
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9:23a, 7/12/24
AG
Biden could have a stroke on the stage at the next debate and the race will still be close. That's how polarized we are these days.
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SA68AG
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9:27a, 7/12/24
AG
Never underestimate just how many people despise Trump.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 9:27a, 7/12/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
Biden could have a stroke on the stage at the next debate and the race will still be close. That's how polarized we are these days.

Because the media has created the divisiveness in this country, intentionally, led by Obama going back to 2010. It became all white people are racist, xenophobes, evil people.

It's sickening.
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B-1 83
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 9:29a, 7/12/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
Biden could have a stroke on the stage at the next debate and the race will still be close. That's how polarized we are these days.
I honestly thought they might pull a "Dave" moment last night……. It's still not to late.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Rapier108
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:39a, 7/12/24
I don't, but you people love them.

I guess you only want polls to be posted if they are pro-Trump.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Rockdoc
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:47a, 7/12/24
AG
nortex97 said:
For a guy who doesn't believe in polls you sure enjoy coming over to post one each time it can sound scary about Trump.

Anyway (as our president would say), most of the senate polls this week are actually good news, showing incumbents on the Dem side too close for comfort if not losing, I don't believe for a second Cruz is only up 2 on the communist here:


Looking good!
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nortex97
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:22a, 7/12/24
AG
Rapier108 said:
I don't, but you people love them.

I guess you only want polls to be posted if they are pro-Trump.
It's just an interesting bit. "You people" made me laugh again. I'm fine with whatever polls being posted, no desire to police the internet/board/thoughts of others...you're consistent, clearly, gotta give you that.

To the extent you/anyone cares, I think I've stated this somewhere up thread but I primarily value polling as useful to indicate (a) where to spend money on state-level races, (b) macro views of trends nationally (aggregate swings like RCP/538 etc), and (c) battleground states where likely voters are used by quality pollsters not pushing an agenda. And yes, I think there are good pollsters, for various reasons we can message about/discuss offline if you want. I don't personally think it's meaningless on the basis of frustration over 2020 or 2022 etc.

The Democrat-NPR poll you posted had a D+6 sample size (and likely heavy on the coastal states for sampling), was of 1174 registered voters. That is…pure propaganda, imho, but whatever.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:29a, 7/12/24
AG
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?
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rgag12
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 10:35a, 7/12/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?


The conclusion from people I talk to that aren't republicans is this:

Both these candidates are god-awful. Trump is an awful human being in general, and Biden doesn't have it all there mentally. Biden still gets the vote though because Trump is still Trump.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 10:37a, 7/12/24
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?
I do not believe these polls, I think it is a lot better for Trump than what they are leading on.

Which is good, every time a poll comes out with it close or Biden ahead is a good thing for Rs. Gives Biden ammo to stay in the race.

We all know this one is over barring some miracle or major cheating.
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LMCane
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In reply to Rockdoc • 10:40a, 7/12/24
Rockdoc said:
nortex97 said:
For a guy who doesn't believe in polls you sure enjoy coming over to post one each time it can sound scary about Trump.

Anyway (as our president would say), most of the senate polls this week are actually good news, showing incumbents on the Dem side too close for comfort if not losing, I don't believe for a second Cruz is only up 2 on the communist here:


Looking good!
look closely my friend - all those polls are from the Remington Firm. A Republican pollster.

this one is better

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Tea Party
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In reply to rgag12 • 10:51a, 7/12/24
rgag12 said:
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?


The conclusion from people I talk to that aren't republicans is this:

Both these candidates are god-awful. Trump is an awful human being in general, and Biden doesn't have it all there mentally. Biden still gets the vote though because Trump is still Trump those independents vote on emotion rather than logic.
FIFY
Learn about the Texas Nationalist Movement
https://tnm.me
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Barnyard96
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In reply to rgag12 • 11:55a, 7/12/24
AG
rgag12 said:
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?


The conclusion from people I talk to that aren't republicans is this:

Both these candidates are god-awful. Trump is an awful human being in general, and Biden doesn't have it all there mentally. Biden still gets the vote though because Trump is still Trump.


So Biden is a good human being?
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 12:07p, 7/12/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
rgag12 said:
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?


The conclusion from people I talk to that aren't republicans is this:

Both these candidates are god-awful. Trump is an awful human being in general, and Biden doesn't have it all there mentally. Biden still gets the vote though because Trump is still Trump.


So Biden is a good human being?
This is what drives me absolutely insane. On what planet does Joe Biden get the moral high ground award. The dude has been a corrupt, racist, vile POS for over 4 decades with a record to prove it, yet he gets a blanket pass on ethics and decency. Give me a ****ing break.
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LMCane
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1:22p, 7/12/24
As I have been stating for 15 days now, everyone must pray to the Hindu Gods that Biden remains the nominee:

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TyHolden
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1:52p, 7/12/24
AG
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policywonk98
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In reply to LMCane • 2:01p, 7/12/24
AG
It's true. People underestimate how powerful the sympathy vote for Ol Joe will be if he steps aside to "save democracy" and the first Blackish Female President is up to bat. Joe was a joke of a Senator and VP clearly having early stage problems in 2020 and the Dem machine still got fully behind him and shoved Bernie into the ditch back in 2020.

Absolutely in the realm of posssibiltiy that the entire media-political-military-industrial complex will get behind a political hack like Harris and they will ride the sympathy train of "Let's do this for Ol Joe" horse laughing all the way back into the Oval Office. They hate and fear Trump and his appeal to the working class voter that much.


These polls may look very different if he gets out soon and the Dems have the time to craft a sympathetic narrative for their convention week. They have the last convention before the Labor Day season push. They have the advantage as far as timing.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to rgag12 • 2:23p, 7/12/24
AG
rgag12 said:
Barnyard96 said:
How does a poll with 70% independents stating Biden is mentally unfit, break +2 for Biden?

I wonder how the poll "who is your neighbor voting for" breaks?


The conclusion from people I talk to that aren't republicans is this:

Both these candidates are god-awful. Trump is an awful human being in general, and Biden doesn't have it all there mentally. Biden still gets the vote though because Trump is still Trump.


This is just plain stupid. POLICIES should matter. Having a POTUS that is mentally 100% HERE matters. Abdicating leadership to cabinet and departments of matters!

STUPID!!! We can't have our foreign policy run by people who aren't accountable / weren't voted in!!!

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MemphisAg1
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:23p, 7/12/24
AG
Yep, I can see it now... a "comeback" story for Kamala and the Dems.

The media would eat it up, spread it like wildfire, and return the focus to "stop Trump to save our democracy."

This one's not over by a long shot.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 2:59p, 7/12/24
AG
Agree, Kamala is no stranger to come from behind long shots
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LMCane
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7:17p, 7/12/24
538 claiming Biden 54% to 46% will win Wisconsin, even though the polls currently have Trump +2

and coincidentally..



so we are supposed to believe Pelosi, Clyburn, Clooney and 19 House Democrats all publicly asking Biden to drop out are wrong, and this poll is correct instead?
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BoDog
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7:30p, 7/12/24
AG
The poll is likely taking into account the 130k ballots out of Milwaukee that appeared in the middle of the night. Dead serious.

We are still playing checkers while the corrupt and evil libs are playing chess.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 7:56p, 7/12/24
AG
He's really on a tear tonight/today. Even ripping his old site, and Kamala's odds;





This is great entertainment.
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aggiehawg
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1:57p, 7/13/24
AG
Historical perspective:

Quote:
So, let's again look at the 2024 Presidential election fundamentals, and what they portend for the future:
  • The RealClearPolitics national average now gives a 2.9% edge to Donald Trump. Trump is also leading by 4.1% in the average of the battleground state polls. Both of these averages are slightly down from Trump's high point of a few days ago (as a result of two polls that are slightly suspicious). New states, including Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia, that are usually safe Democrat, are now becoming battleground states. Heavily Democrat New York is also closer than expected.
  • Donald Trump has had an edge in the national polling average since September of 2023. In 2016 and 2020, Trump was consistently down in the polling average, often by a lot, to both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. And in those prior races, his support in the polls was consistently underestimated. So far, Trump has even polled better against Joe Biden than Ronald Reagan did against Jimmy Carter in the 1980 cycle.
  • Biden's RealClearPolitics national job approval rating is still averaging roughly 40%, which is unchanged from what it was before the debate. This number is similar, or even lower, to the approval ratings of former Presidents George H. W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford in the last year of their presidencies. All three men lost their re-election campaigns. It is also lower than was Donald Trump's in 2020.
  • Donald Trump's retrospective job approval ratings as President are far higher than are Joe Biden's:
Quote:
More registered voters believe former President Donald Trump would do a better job than President Joe Biden tackling two of the top issues of the 2024 campaign, the economy and immigration, according to an exclusive poll by USA TODAY/Suffolk University taken after Biden's disastrous debate with Trump. The poll also found voters view Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, more capable of handling national security issues and dealing with China.
LINK
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oh no
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:29p, 7/13/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Trump has even polled better against Joe Biden than Ronald Reagan against Jimmy Carter in the 1980 cycle.
wow. It's almost like the majority of Americans don't actually want to destroy this thing and give socialism a try. No wonder the mass migrant importation is necessary for the political elites in this regime.
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TyHolden
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3:41p, 7/14/24
AG
like Reagan now....

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nortex97
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In reply to TyHolden • 3:57p, 7/14/24
AG


Acceptable.
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Legend
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:59p, 7/14/24
AG
nortex97 said:


Acceptable.

Accurately predicted every election since 2022???
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Legend • 4:02p, 7/14/24
AG
It has Trump winning Rhode Island and Connecticut.
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Rapier108
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:04p, 7/14/24

[This will be our last warning to you about derailing threads. Either contribute to the discussion or don't post. Do it again and take a long vacation -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
mlb87
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4:28p, 7/14/24
AG
I think everyone is getting way too cocky. The dems seemed to always find the votes.
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TyHolden
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In reply to mlb87 • 4:29p, 7/14/24
AG
mlb87 said:
I think everyone is getting way too cocky. The dems seemed to always find the votes.
yeah, it will just take longer to count the votes in the blue cities....
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mlb87
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In reply to TyHolden • 4:31p, 7/14/24
AG
TyHolden said:
mlb87 said:
I think everyone is getting way too cocky. The dems seemed to always find the votes.
yeah, it will just take longer to count the votes in the blue cities....


Exactly. There are always several cities in swing states that always just take as long as needed to "find the votes".
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Kentucky Jeff
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In reply to SA68AG • 4:38p, 7/14/24
SA68AG said:
Never underestimate just how many people despise Trump.

If it was underestimated yesterday...I can assure you that people have a good read on the situation now.
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