XXXVII said:

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captkirk said:

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Didn't go well for the terrorist

#BREAKING: New bodycam footage from a terrorist raid in an Israeli town shows the moment that the @IDF showed up. pic.twitter.com/1cI3xMhhII

— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) October 15, 2023

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Perfect.

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Abu Hajjar Part II.
Didn't get to roll though

HumpitPuryear said:

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Stlkofta said:

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-slated-to-make-late-night-statement-after-meeting-with-netanyahu-for-eight-hours/

Quote:

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is slated to make a late-night statement from the US Embassy's branch office in Tel Aviv after meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet for nearly eight hours at the IDF's Kirya military headquarters nearby.

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Say one thing in public. Ask for something else in private.

I don't know how you can possibly ask the Israelis to deal with a ridiculous concept of "proportionality" after what happened on October 7.

But here we are, trying to tell Israel to treat Hamas and Gaza with kid gloves.

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Israel dithered and Hamas and Iran will benefit as will Jordan, Syria, and Egypt because the Gazans will stay where they are. If the offensive is called off Iran is going to crow about it. Hamas will be seen by Palestinians as having stared down the IDF. Imagine how China will interpret this weakness as they look across the straight towards Taiwan. Weakness put the world in this situation and weakness will make it worse.

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Israel will not dither.
Not going to happen.

JobSecurity said:

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The Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon has stated that Israel and the United States should take the Warnings issued earlier by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian very Seriously.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2023

The Official International Broadcasting Radio Network of Iran, “The Victory of God is near.” https://t.co/40BxlHPNdS

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2023

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What are the odds the Russians actually helped those nutters make a nuke?

OR

What are the odds they have a dirty bomb ready to go off in Tel Aviv?

deddog said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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Stlkofta said:

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-slated-to-make-late-night-statement-after-meeting-with-netanyahu-for-eight-hours/

Quote:

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is slated to make a late-night statement from the US Embassy's branch office in Tel Aviv after meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet for nearly eight hours at the IDF's Kirya military headquarters nearby.

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Say one thing in public. Ask for something else in private.

I don't know how you can possibly ask the Israelis to deal with a ridiculous concept of "proportionality" after what happened on October 7.

But here we are, trying to tell Israel to treat Hamas and Gaza with kid gloves.

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Israel dithered and Hamas and Iran will benefit as will Jordan, Syria, and Egypt because the Gazans will stay where they are. If the offensive is called off Iran is going to crow about it. Hamas will be seen by Palestinians as having stared down the IDF. Imagine how China will interpret this weakness as they look across the straight towards Taiwan. Weakness put the world in this situation and weakness will make it worse.

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Israel will not dither.
Not going to happen.

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They already have. They've given deadlines and did nothing. World press is against them and is putting Palestinian suffering front and center. The US president is making a personal trip to dissuade them. We know nothing is kicking off before Thursday because IDF isn't going to start an invasion while the president is visiting. And it's absolutely foolish to announce the trip ahead of time.

Is the four-screen live video now down?

Take over the surface and wait the out. Pretty damned simple.

HowdyTAMU said:

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Is the four-screen live video now down?

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It's up but only 1 view of Gaza now, 3 Israel views it looks like

Agreed - they already worked the deal with Blinken. Just to delay and give Biden a photo opp IMO. Wish him well in not starting WWIII.

I've posted the link earlier. It's gopro videos from dead hamas. Viewer discretion is advised.

Ps. I was in ERs for 8 years, and it made me cringe.

https://t.me/southfirstresponders

Eta: all of these hamas fighters met their maker

Trying to kill Hamas while keeping this war from expanding into Hezbollah and the Arab street. Half the people in Gaza are under the age of 18 so there are a ton of children in there that Hamas is hiding behind, not to mention the hostages. Awful situation.

We'll find out if it's going to work but the US is at a minimum trying to create the optics that other Arab countries were able to gain some humanitarian concessions from Israel in exchange for staying out of the conflict, and the US was the broker of the deal. I suspect it will work with more US friendly middle eastern countries who also have it in their own interest to not let an Iranian proxy stir up a regional conflict. The Saudis, Jordanians, Egyptians, etc need some sort of win so they can tell their people they "opposed the Zionists" or whatever phrasing they like to use.

Israel is saying they are taking more time to reinforce their border with Lebanon so they don't get caught with their pants down right after they start the ground invasion of Gaza. That is probably also a valid reason for the delay.

I doubt any of this surprised Israel. They were probably smart enough to shut off water/power and implement a full blockade so they had something they could negotiate with, knowing Biden and team would show up asking for some sort of appeasement. This isn't Netanyahu's first rodeo and Israel also doesn't want to be stuck holding the bag of a humanitarian crisis with 2MM people who hate them - so "agreeing" to let other countries foot the bill for humanitarian aid is probably not a terrible outcome for Israel.

Iran will still try to be the turd in the punch bowl. It's too bad we are fighting a proxy war with Russia because, absent that, they would probably have been able to help keep Iran on the sideline. But, given the current fact set, it's in Russia's best interest for Iran to stir up trouble and distract the US with a conflict in Israel at the exact moment opposition to Ukraine support is building within the US. It definitely provides the military industrial complex an alternative location to spend money.

2000AgPhD said:

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I am usually not much of an optimist, but I see nothing wrong with Israel letting Hamas and the Gazans starve and live without water and electricity for a few more days while they continue to pound infrastructure before going in. How long did the alliance pound Iraq in Gulf I before going in - a month?

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I doubt the Hamas fighters are any where close to starving yet. They had a long time to plan for this attack, knew and intended for Israel to react, and are sitting in their tunnels stockpiled with food, water, and weapons. Ready for the Jews to come in so they can die for Allah in glorious battle while hoping their own people suffer as much as possible so that the rest of the Arab world joins in and the world burns.

As someone else posted, I see shutting off something like the water more a negotiating tactic than intended to degrade Hamas' ability to fight. Took away something that can then give back. But a delicate balancing act because the civilians are taking the brunt of it which is what Hamas wants hoping the violence then spreads to the rest of the Arab world.

One of the Audionix feeds is now Hamas propaganda. No audio, but showing all the devastation and displaced people.

JW said:

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anything less than total defeat and we will be doing this again in 5-10 years.

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POTD just before 0800

Thankfully, that one Audionix stream is back to watching the Gaza skyline rather than propaganda.

Iran does not have working nuclear weapons. If they do, it is a very small number.

They are provoking a nation with somewhere between 200-400 weapons and both first/second-strike capabilities. On top of that, the Samson doctrine.

Are they really that insane?

JW said:

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anything less than total defeat and we will be doing this again in 5-10 years.

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It'll definitely happen again. People who think there's going to be some kind of complete extermination, even of just Hamas, aren't being realistic I don't think. The emperor in Star Wars can say "Wipe them out, all of them.." but in the modern western world, including Israel, this will diminish quickly for practicality's sake. Hostage negotiations, outside pressure and interference from the UN and the US, promises of this and that to deescalate, concerns over a wider war, etc. will end this way before it should in my opinion. It just seems like in the modern world the attitude is always to do the least you can to put things off a little longer instead of really fixing anything. I will be shocked if at some point before they're done we don't hear "They've reached an agreement.."

I'm thinking that Israel wants to hit them so hard that it will take multiple generations to rebuild to what Hamas is today in strength. Not only just in people numbers, but also infrastructure.

In this way, it will take more than 10-15 years for it to happen again, but in general, yes, I agree, it will happen again. Has been for millennia.