Donghorn said:

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Israel is a fortress. How did it take 6 to 9 hours for an Israeli defense response?

How did Israel not know? 🤔

pic.twitter.com/iorYO8mVnQ

— Patrick Bet-David (@patrickbetdavid) October 15, 2023

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I'm not gonna lie my first thought was exactly this, how did this happen so widespread without any resistance at all, but then my human side kicked in and all I cared about was the atrocities that occurred

It was a well-planned operation by a very small group of people. Most of the fighters likely did not find out until day of which is why they were handed their instructions in a packet.

Zeihan's theory is that Israel was possibly hyperfocused on Hezbollah and didn't view Hamas as big of a threat. Just like 9/11, they will likely be able to put the pieces together after the fact and realized they should have known what was coming.

They had a lot of automated systems that either failed or were taken out, including their warning alert systems. They may have been physically unable to actually call for the response due to hacking or communication jamming. The attack first took out the wall sensors and then the guard towers and automated turrets. It's possible they were relying on those systems more than they should have been. They were also likely a bit understaffed due to the holiday.

They were responding to a lot of different attacks in a lot of different areas simultaneously so there was likely a lot of confusion and fog.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, I'm pretty convinced the Netanyahu government is done once the emergency is over. He was already hanging on by a thread. This failure will absolutely lead to a new government in israel.

Great video explaining the dynamics of politics in Israel and what may be happening.

I actually do in this case. It's parked there for a reason. The sentiment around Washington right now is fafo. People are legitimately pissed off this time.

Everyone knows Hamas and Hezbollah have worked together. Sometimes the public lip service is quite different than what's said and known behind the scenes. Iran knows that we know.

BTHOB said:

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Anybody else starting to think Israel waited too long to start ground operations clearing Hamas out of Gaza?

Seems like public opinion and International pressures are building exponentially against the ground war. Support for eradicating Hamas was greatest shortly after the initial events were disclosed.

I am starting to doubt that Israel will do what they need to do, with the aggressiveness required, anytime soon.

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So….. ground operations? I think minor incursions across the border here and there followed by calls for peace talks. Israel gets punched and is restrained from punching back in a meaningful way.

Nothing changes.

They waited several days in 2008. They also allowed a lot of humanitarian assistance in at that point as well. They may be applying some lessons they learned the last time around. Possible the pre-announced evacuations and invasion was a bit of a feint to get Hamas to start moving around in the open. They've already been able to bomb several tunnel entrances by monitoring the traffic.

Also possible they are actively negotiating for the hostages and/or now have some intelligence as to where they are. A lot of moving parts here.

Anyone know what happened to Steve overnight?

Aaand, Steve is back to normal, so carry on.

Lebanese army has found and dismantled 20 rocket launchers in southern Lebanon which were probably intended for northern Israel https://t.co/zbVYYbMwuJ

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 16, 2023

Fun video on the A10 NSFW (language). I'm pretty sure he has one about the predecessor too.

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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"We have no evidence of Iranian involvement."

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I heard this line, again, trotted out this morning on the way to work.

Such BS. Just about the very first thing that Hamas and everyone else bragged about was how Iran had helped plan the operation for 2-years. Then, suddenly, when the political winds do not favor Iran, "oh no, we had nothing to do with this."

Flat out lies, and our own gov't is supporting the lies.

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So true sounds like you watched the video that within 90 min of the strike. Iran syria and turkey were advised and 3 hours in they were all in a meeting If I remember the video correctly posted about 20-30 pages back

[We've been clear about not derailing from the intent of this thread which is to keep the board updated on the ongoing conflict. You persist in derailing even after a short timeout. This thread has nothing to do with Covid. Try a few days this time -- Staff]

Never mind, absolutely not an isolated appearance, the IDF appears to be adding top attack “cope cages” to a number of Merkava MBTs in the vicinity of Gaza. https://t.co/KJ2IzjHxfA pic.twitter.com/yfKvv5j5WO

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 16, 2023

IDF seems to be adopting the so-called "cope cages" intended to defeat top attack munitions (and drone dropped grenades).

They haven't been very successful for Russia in Ukraine against western weapons but an interesting development

Rumors are the Israel might now be waiting for Biden to arrive sometime later this week before the ground invasion? Worst massacre since Holocaust and the Israeli govt seems more beholden to what world thinks or wants with each passing day

JobSecurity said:

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Lebanese army has found and dismantled 20 rocket launchers in southern Lebanon which were probably intended for northern Israel https://t.co/zbVYYbMwuJ

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 16, 2023

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Do I understand this correctly? Is the Lebanese military in part or in whole at odds with Hezbollah? That could spell problems for Hez if they get involved and suddenly have a massive thorn in their side from Lebanon while trying to contend with Israel.

Part of me feels like Israel is dragging their feet and then unannounced will catch Hamas off guard. There is no way they don't do more damage in Gaza.

jlAG97 said:

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Rumors are the Israel might now be waiting for Biden to arrive sometime later this week before the ground invasion? Worst massacre since Holocaust and the Israeli govt seems more beholden to what world thinks or wants with each passing day

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I agree that Israel shouldn't care what the world thinks, but seeing as how they wouldn't exist if it wasn't for us having their back in every way that matters, they may not have a choice.

Edit to add that hopefully those rumors are just internet people talking out of their asses and Israel is doing what they want how they want.

Yes, Hezbollah is largely detested by much of the population of Lebanon. But they are very violent. As stated before, nothing is as simple as it seems in/about Israel. It's basically a huge Venn diagram of interests/enemies/parties interested in various folks' destruction.

Lebanon still today has a required split in its gov't among christian/moslem groups. The government does not want war with Israel, but cannot control the hezbollah groups on the border. Israel is I suspect doing all they can to prepare for a massive wave of artillery/actions/rockets from Hezbollah once their ground operation does begin in Gaza.

Yes. Lebanon has a civil government with a military of its own that nominally holds control over parts of that nation. Hezbollah is a paramilitary/terrorist and political organization primarily in southern Lebanon. It has an activist political wing and its own large paramilitary force that is currently in a more or less truce with the government military, and is focused on threatening Israel and extorting political concessions through intimidation.
In Lebanon, they caused and maintain most of the political chaos and outright violence when it occurs, but they are at an uneasy truce and power sharing arrangement currently.

GAC06 said:

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Never mind, absolutely not an isolated appearance, the IDF appears to be adding top attack “cope cages” to a number of Merkava MBTs in the vicinity of Gaza. https://t.co/KJ2IzjHxfA pic.twitter.com/yfKvv5j5WO

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 16, 2023

IDF seems to be adopting the so-called "cope cages" intended to defeat top attack munitions (and drone dropped grenades).

They haven't been very successful for Russia in Ukraine against western weapons but an interesting development

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Can anyone explain "cope cages" to me like I'm 5? Are they simply a potential hit to cause an incoming munition to explode prematurely?

Waffledynamics said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Lebanese army has found and dismantled 20 rocket launchers in southern Lebanon which were probably intended for northern Israel https://t.co/zbVYYbMwuJ

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 16, 2023

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Do I understand this correctly? Is the Lebanese military in part or in whole at odds with Hezbollah? That could spell problems for Hez if they get involved and suddenly have a massive thorn in their side from Lebanon while trying to contend with Israel.

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A not insignificant part of Lebanon is against Hezbollah, but they don't have the money, firepower, and numbers to really take Hezbollah on. Iran has done a good job of building up Hezbollah under Lebanon's nose.

I could see them being effective against RPG type munitions as well. It makes the explosion happen away from the vehicle's skin and thus lessens the penetration of the molten metal injection

I think it's basically a screen or cage along the top so a drone can't drop a thermobaric etc. grenade and blow it up easily (among other munitions).

If you look at the combat footage from Ukraine, a lot of kills are from drones dropping grenades.

Waffledynamics said:

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JobSecurity said:

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Lebanese army has found and dismantled 20 rocket launchers in southern Lebanon which were probably intended for northern Israel https://t.co/zbVYYbMwuJ

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 16, 2023

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Do I understand this correctly? Is the Lebanese military in part or in whole at odds with Hezbollah? That could spell problems for Hez if they get involved and suddenly have a massive thorn in their side from Lebanon while trying to contend with Israel.

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My impression has always been that Hezbollah would bury any sort of official Lebanese military.

CDUB98 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Never mind, absolutely not an isolated appearance, the IDF appears to be adding top attack “cope cages” to a number of Merkava MBTs in the vicinity of Gaza. https://t.co/KJ2IzjHxfA pic.twitter.com/yfKvv5j5WO

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 16, 2023

IDF seems to be adopting the so-called "cope cages" intended to defeat top attack munitions (and drone dropped grenades).

They haven't been very successful for Russia in Ukraine against western weapons but an interesting development

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Can anyone explain "cope cages" to me like I'm 5? Are they simply a potential hit to cause an incoming munition to explode prematurely?

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As others have mentioned, many ATGM's are top attack since that's where the armor is thinnest. The idea is to interfere or prematurely detonate those missiles. Perhaps more useful is stopping drones from dropping grenades on them.

There is zero reason for either of them to be there. Just stupid.