Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

Only to get my property tax payment down.

Might need to hedge a bit before the crash

Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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I don't see how housing market crash is possible. Majority of mortgage holders have super low interest rate and there's no inventory. Hope I'm wrong.

Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

I'm gonna be honest with you, I really only care about my own self interests

Bexar Ag said:

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I'm gonna be honest with you, I really only care about my own self interests

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That is certainly fair. I appreciate your honesty.

I'll be great for property taxes.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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You would think, but here are still houses selling left and right in our 'hood for ridiculous sums of money. I have no idea how people afford these things. Glad we got in before the run-up.

AggieDruggist89 said:

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Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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I don't see how housing market crash is possible. Majority of mortgage holders have super low interest rate and there's no inventory. Hope I'm wrong.

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Same here. Commercial Real Estate is in the toilet, but residential seems a long way from a crash.

There's too much demand vs inventory in Texas. If you're hoping for a massive dip in home values below what they currently are in any of the large Texas markets then you're going to be disappointed. You may see a continued arrest in the previously astronomical increases in home values but you won't see a significant backslide in this state.

Bexar Ag said:

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I'm gonna be honest with you, I really only care about my own self interests

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Which describes the rest of humanity as well.

I don't think you understand the economics for this to happen.

80+% of the existing houses are locked in with interest rates under 4%. With wage inflation, and a lack of housing supply, they have plenty of cashflow to service the low monthly payments and their equity position is fairly protected due to lack of housing supply.

The only way you see a housing crash is with mass job loss where owner's can no longer afford below market mortgage payments and houses are going back to lenders. If this level of job loss happens I would suspect everyone has a job security problem, including you, and you won't be able to execute on the "value buy" you are looking for.

If anything you should be hoping for interest rates to come back down and housing supply substantially to pick up bringing affordability back to the market.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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"Covid spike in housing prices"


This genius votes y'all....

Idk, as someone who just sold, I had to take a little less than I was hoping for (less than 10%) but the interest rates on the new mortgage was nearly triple what I bought it for two years ago. The mortgage on that house would be nearly 30% more a month for the exact same property, assuming they put down the same percentage I did.

I think there will have to be a balancing at some point. I'm not worried about the market collapsing, but I do think there is room to adjust downwards if interest rates stay at the same level. Either prices or rates are eventually going to fall.

Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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Enough people have been doing the same thing as you that the housing market is not likely to crash. The demand is still out there and with the stock market being not as good of an investment lately, real estate is more of an attractive place to put money.

Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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I'm too busy hoping for a stock market crash so that I'll have some buying opportunities.

Also wishing for a major plague so that my preferred vacation spots will be less crowded.

GAC06 said:

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Might need to hedge a bit before the crash

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Don't be blue.

I'm hoping prices come down to where they should be. The growth in value over the last 5 years is not sustainable.

If they raise the interest rates to cool inflation, I would think prices would begin to fall some. But they won't do that because it also increases the payment on our national debt. We have idiots in charge.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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I've seen it correcting in Austin over the past year.

The past decade, you'd only need to think about moving, and you'd start a bidding war in my neighborhood.

But there have been several homes for sale for months, and asking prices dropping. They're still pretty dang high in my opinion, but the prices have started to fall as the interest rate has increased.

All that to say, in 2008-2009, the last time we saw a bubble burst, Texas was a bit insulated compared to the rest of the country. Our prices stagnated, but they didnt crater like we saw in other parts of the country.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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To be fair we thought the same thing in 2008-2009, to a lesser extent in 2014-2015 and definitely in 2020.

I don't think this recession will be the be all end all for the US, but I can't imagine it's gonna be much longer with such a high and ever increasing debt.

It's sounding more & more like the commercial real estate market is what's unstable

There will be some dominoes that fall, and virtually everything could be affected....


But housing demand in Texas is too high for the residential market to crater....


Too many people are moving here to escape idiotic socialist policies they voted for in previous locations...


We can only pray that they've learned their lesson

Ive been waiting for it for a couple of years to buy some rental properties, but I'm coming around to the idea that it's not goign to happen. There's too many people looking for homes. There are several on this thread alone.

Commercial Real Estate is going to burn though. And I think there is going to be a lot of regional banks that crash because of it.

Big crash coming in 5-7 years. Both housing and stock market. Piling up dry powder until that time as it'll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. My $.02.

Franklin Comes Alive! said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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"Covid spike in housing prices"


This genius votes y'all....

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That account is the one always making pot threads.....

Even the average Joe homeowner has some understanding of housing market trends, and forces impacting real estate value.


In 2020:
1) There was a serious shortage of available housing inventory.

2) Subsequently there was significant demand for homes that could not be met.

3) Interest rates dropped to absurdly low levels. I wrote appraisals regularly where homeowners & investors were refi'ing to sub 2%. Most of my work in 2020 consisted of refinances & heloc's, as opposed to purchases. (Guess what those who refid have not done...sold their home.)

4) There were supply chain restrictions/constrictions which delayed new home builds & increased the cost of newly built homes due to the difficulty in obtaining lumber from the canuks, which transferred to new home buyers as increased sales prices. I spoke with project managers & builders regularly who showed me pro formas indicating increases of $50-$80k in the Lumber pack.

4) Inflation, bad government.

The end result was that the law of supply and demand hit the housing market like a mac truck. There was effectively no real supply of homes/inventory to meet demand. Brokers/Listing agents were receiving a wide range of 10-30+ offers on a home within 2 days of it being listed on the Market where I am. Escalation clauses & appraisal gaps came into play. Home prices kept shooting up. Everyone who refid loves their low monthly payments, and doesn't want to sell, so they can buy a more expensive home with an interest rate that is probably double or triple their current rate.

The why of all of this is really interesting, and I'm not taking the time to word vomit it out on F16, but what happened in 2020 is going to be studied for decades.

Woods Ag said:

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Ive been waiting for it for a couple of years to buy some rental properties, but I'm coming around to the idea that it's not goign to happen. There's too many people looking for homes. There are several on this thread alone.

Commercial Real Estate is going to burn though. And I think there is going to be a lot of regional banks that crash because of it.

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But along the same lines as residential, I wonder how much commercial is insulated in Texas. Demand greatly exceeds supply.

I definitely could see a small correction, and stagnation...but we're typically the last to enter and first to exit when the bad times hit.

I am tired of renters.
People don't want to work.
They want to live like dirty pigs.
But for the rest of you: pile up cash and buy at a discount.
Good luck yall.

Yeah, I wasn't referring to Texas alone, but more some of the major cities in the country. Texas will probably be insulated from it moreso than NY, Chicago, LA, SF, Denver, etc etc.

I own two rental properties.

I get 2 to 3 calls EVERY DAY of foreign cash buyers looking to buy one of my houses.

As long as our fiscal policy remains completely insane, housing prices are going to stay flat at least, but more likely to follow inflation.

move to Detroit or Vegas they have some of the lowest housing prices in the country, problem solved!!

Pluralizes Everythings said:

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Home prices kept shooting up. Everyone who refid loves their low monthly payments, and doesn't want to sell, so they can buy a more expensive home with an interest rate that is probably double or triple their current rate.

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100% That's where I'm at. Ideally I wouldn't mind selling but I got a great deal on a place 6-7 years ago that's appreciated by around 50%, and I have a dirt cheap interest rate. Why am I going to move just so I can pay more for less?