Bexar Ag said:

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I'm gonna be honest with you, I really only care about my own self interests

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You gotta think about the LGBTQ+, blacks, Hispanics, women's, trans kids interests before your own....

CDUB98 said:

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Only to get my property tax payment down.

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We should be so lucky. The county will probably just hold off on doing assessment until the prices jump back up.

Pluralizes Everythings said:

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Franklin Comes Alive! said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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"Covid spike in housing prices"


This genius votes y'all....

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That account is the one always making pot threads.....

Even the average Joe homeowner has some understanding of housing market trends, and forces impacting real estate value.


In 2020:
1) There was a serious shortage of available housing inventory.

2) Subsequently there was significant demand for homes that could not be met.

3) Interest rates dropped to absurdly low levels. I wrote appraisals regularly where homeowners & investors were refi'ing to sub 2%. Most of my work in 2020 consisted of refinances & heloc's, as opposed to purchases. (Guess what those who refid have not done...sold their home.)

4) There were supply chain restrictions/constrictions which delayed new home builds & increased the cost of newly built homes due to the difficulty in obtaining lumber from the canuks, which transferred to new home buyers as increased sales prices. I spoke with project managers & builders regularly who showed me pro formas indicating increases of $50-$80k in the Lumber pack.

4) Inflation, bad government.

The end result was that the law of supply and demand hit the housing market like a mac truck. There was effectively no real supply of homes/inventory to meet demand. Brokers/Listing agents were receiving a wide range of 10-30+ offers on a home within 2 days of it being listed on the Market where I am. Escalation clauses & appraisal gaps came into play. Home prices kept shooting up. Everyone who refid loves their low monthly payments, and doesn't want to sell, so they can buy a more expensive home with an interest rate that is probably double or triple their current rate.

The why of all of this is really interesting, and I'm not taking the time to word vomit it out on F16, but what happened in 2020 is going to be studied for decades.

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Don't forget the "work from home" boom which made people living in big cities wanting to buy a house for cheap elsewhere.

BluHorseShu said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Only to get my property tax payment down.

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We should be so lucky. The county will probably just hold off on doing assessment until the prices jump back up.

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My county has gone full Dem, starting in 2008. I'm definitely going to get screwed.

My thought at least in Houston is prices will be steady at worst until/unless rates drop again which will make values soar from increasing competition.

Woods Ag said:

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Yeah, I wasn't referring to Texas alone, but more some of the major cities in the country. Texas will probably be insulated from it moreso than NY, Chicago, LA, SF, Denver, etc etc.

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Gotcha.

Definitely some of those cities will feel it. Very similar to Detroit last go 'round.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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It would only be bad for people that foolishly bought in the past two years. For the rest of us we would be fine.

Correction is needed.

New builds ground to a halt during the COVID timeframe as the price of lumber tripled.

As mentioned, you have the vast majority of people in at sub-3% rates and the current 30 years in 7%. No one wants to or can financially move.

So we have very low inventory and still have 1M moving into the state every year. 2020/2021 really messed the fundamentals up for a while.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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New builds ground to a halt during the COVID timeframe as the price of lumber tripled.

As mentioned, you have the vast majority of people in at sub-3% rates and the current 30 years in 7%. No one wants to or can financially move.

So we have very low inventory and still have 1M moving into the state every year. 2020/2021 really messed the fundamentals up for a while.

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Not sure what you saw but the only slowdown in housing starts was in March/April of 2020 when all the lockdowns started. After that it was balls to the wall for two years as sales went through the roof. Yes, prices and building times shot up but most definitely we were completing and selling more houses.

hondotex03 said:

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I don't think you understand the economics for this to happen.

80+% of the existing houses are locked in with interest rates under 4%. With wage inflation, and a lack of housing supply, they have plenty of cashflow to service the low monthly payments and their equity position is fairly protected due to lack of housing supply.

The only way you see a housing crash is with mass job loss where owner's can no longer afford below market mortgage payments and houses are going back to lenders. If this level of job loss happens I would suspect everyone has a job security problem, including you, and you won't be able to execute on the "value buy" you are looking for.

If anything you should be hoping for interest rates to come back down and housing supply substantially to pick up bringing affordability back to the market.

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And then Wall Street will step in and buy everything.

DTP02 said:

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Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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I'm too busy hoping for a stock market crash so that I'll have some buying opportunities.

Also wishing for a major plague so that my preferred vacation spots will be less crowded.

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This. And hoping for a great depression 2.0 so my lazy ass will feel more pressure to get started on that backyard garden my wife has been bugging me about.

Woods Ag said:

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Ive been waiting for it for a couple of years to buy some rental properties, but I'm coming around to the idea that it's not goign to happen. There's too many people looking for homes. There are several on this thread alone.

Commercial Real Estate is going to burn though. And I think there is going to be a lot of regional banks that crash because of it.

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Been looking for 6 months, it hasn't gone down much at all, especially in the area I want to move to (Montgomery County)

Thinking about buying an acre or two and building. Probably be a little cheaper and get what we want. But the issue there is finding land for a reasonable price

A good piece of land, an acre or 2 are going for 100+

2 years ago some of these properties were in the 40's. Fing sucks

Quote:

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Not sure what you saw but the only slowdown in housing starts was in March/April of 2020 when all the lockdowns started. After that it was balls to the wall for two years as sales went through the roof.

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This right here.

I'm just glad I already have a house.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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New homes at that time were building with lumber at 5 times today's price. If you have to sell that home now, you're screwed.

If you live in Texas, I would not expect much of a correction overall, perhaps more of a slow down in rate of increase, given the migration of people from other states.

2023NCAggies said:

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Woods Ag said:

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Ive been waiting for it for a couple of years to buy some rental properties, but I'm coming around to the idea that it's not goign to happen. There's too many people looking for homes. There are several on this thread alone.

Commercial Real Estate is going to burn though. And I think there is going to be a lot of regional banks that crash because of it.

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Been looking for 6 months, it hasn't gone down much at all, especially in the area I want to move to (Montgomery County)

Thinking about buying an acre or two and building. Probably be a little cheaper and get what we want. But the issue there is finding land for a reasonable price

A good piece of land, an acre or 2 are going for 100+

2 years ago some of these properties were in the 40's. Fing sucks

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It's the ingress of people from other states like Cali, Illinois and New York putting pressure on the market.

Texas and Florida are hot areas because we're not governed by liberal idiots.

Woods Ag said:

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Commercial Real Estate is going to burn though. And I think there is going to be a lot of regional banks that crash because of it.

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Thought this for the past couple years,

As soon as they started ****ting down commercial buildings because of covid and shifted to WFH, i felt like that was a poison pill for commercial real estate.

The shutdowns had a number of secondary effects such as lunch crowd spots near commercial office space that shut down, never reopened and are still sitting vacant.

This was discussed on here at the time and some weighed in that a lot of commercial was on 5/7/10 year leases.

So we are starting to see those come up for renewal and waiting to see what is going to happen.

Exactly.. I forget the percentage, but a large majority of them are coming up for renewal in the next year if I remember correctly.

I thought the same thing then. My company at the time just built 5 big office buildings making it a large campus and we were having meetings after everyone went home about how we could potentially reduce our footprint and just have mobile work spaces for when it was necessary to come into the office.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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Im not wishing hardship on people, but it's not my fault people overpaid and over extended. Wanting to buy homes at a reasonable price is not morally wrong.

Feel like you are taking the too big to fail standpoint.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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Especially with libs at the helm

Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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All personal economic decisions are selfish. HTH.

Yep… and it's paid for

Bexar Ag said:

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I'm gonna be honest with you, I really only care about my own self interests

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Based home-shopper.

OP, quit being a little ***** and pull the trigger. Just think about all of the appreciated value you have lost sitting on the sidelines hoping based off of speculation.

Buy what you can afford and join the fun. As of now, this is you:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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Seems kinda selfish.

Yeah, you may save a few bucks on a home but the collateral damage to our economy would be astronomical.

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Im not wishing hardship on people, but it's not my fault people overpaid and over extended. Wanting to buy homes at a reasonable price is not morally wrong.

Feel like you are taking the too big to fail standpoint.

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I feel like you may be too poor to own a house…

Speaking from very recent experience, here's my deal.

Found a very nice property south of BCS, got it for ~75% asking price. 8 beautiful acres, large main house, large shop, MIL house, ag exemption, stocked ponds, etc..

Sold our really nice, well maintained 5 bdrm, 3.5 bath renovated house in League City for way more than I could ever imagine after 4 bids were fighting for it.

Interest rates seem reasonable at ~6.5%.

If you look for value & you have valuable property to sell, you can make great moves in this environment.

We also have a 4x2.5 rental townhome in CS, about to buy as many as possible over the next 2 years. Easy cash flow for college kid maintenance.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Aren't we long overdue for some kind of housing market correction after the covid spike in housing prices?

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When interest rates come down, I expect it'll only make home prices go up again. Or at the very least hold steady. Home prices aren't coming down.

Cheaper to Buy than Rent in Houston

• Do you think it is more expensive to buy or rent a house in Houston?
• Even with the run-up in prices in our market, Houston is one of only four cities in the U.S. where it is less expensive to buy than rent, according to a report from Redfin.
• The other three cities are Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Detroit.
• According to the report, the median monthly single-family rent in Houston was $2,371, while the monthly median mortgage payment was $2,343.
• That's only a difference of $28 per month, but if a homeowner can build equity at the same time, then it seems to be the best option for most people.
• In April, the median home price increased only one-third of a percent on a year-over-year basis, and the market has remained stable.
• "We didn't have a big housing bubble where our prices just increased dramatically in a short period of time. Prices have always increased slightly," said Cathy Treviño, Houston Association of Realtors chair. "This is a good thing, because then when the market shifts, you don't have a sharp decline like Austin, where their home prices rose dramatically in a short period of time, and now they're seeing the prices of homes declining just as dramatically."

Houston tops strongest real estate markets

• Even with all of the negative news these days, Houston ranked first in the nation for residential construction and also added 100,000 square feet of industrial, office, and self-storage space in the past decade.
• A study by StorageCafe and reported by the Houston Chronicle measured the construction of homes, apartments, self-storage facilities, office, retail and industrial space from 2013 to 2022.
• Houston issued 55,600 single-family home building permits during the decade.
• More than 65 million square feet of industrial construction were added during the same period.
• The spike in online shopping, especially fueled by the pandemic, is credited in part with the increased demand for warehouse space in Houston and elsewhere.
• The self-storage category and office sector both ranked second in the nation, with 5.7 million square feet and 27 million square feet added, respectively.
• It was a very Texas-heavy list, as Houston was followed by San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth to round out the top five.

Yeah....but you have to live in Houston

Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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ive been hoping for a rather significant "correction " cheap real estate makes me happy

BluHorseShu said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Only to get my property tax payment down.

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We should be so lucky. The county will probably just hold off on doing assessment until the prices jump back up.

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They can just jack up the values and I'd guess only 10% would protest, meaning even if they lost on the 10% they are still way ahead of the game.

It's not a good time to be mid-20s - 30s and trying to get into a starter house like you probably grew up living in.

I think we are about to see angst and resentment from a bunch of hardworking people that now can't afford a reasonable place to live, commensurate with their efforts.

Developing and redeveloping areas is going to be cost prohibitive due to the credit market and crazy environmental regulations.

So yeah, we might see some angry millennials and Gen Zers at some point, so I hope they have rich parents. Because things are looking to get worse.

So it looks like if you locked in a loan or refied anytime in 2022, I think you probably ran the gauntlet. And you did the absolute best you could possibly do.

Seems like people are focused on getting stabilized where they want to be long term. I think we just saw a great migration from east and west of people scrambling to improve their situation.

So I think thats slowed down, inflation has put a dent in buying power, interest rates are up. Commercial real estate is now becoming an issue.

So I think we see a collapse in residential. People are stuck where they are at because they cant afford to move or sell and buy anywhere new. So the market stagnates for an undetermined length of time.

I think they figure out a way to convert commercial buildings to residential. Probably financed by the government. They'll tie the program to green agenda to get it done.

And all that becomes the dawn of dystopian megacities like in the movie Bladerunner.

Somebody's great-great-granbaby gonna be a nexus 6.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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It's not a good time to be mid-20s - 30s and trying to get into a starter house like you probably grew up living in.

I think we are about to see angst and resentment from a bunch of hardworking people that now can't afford a reasonable place to live, commensurate with their efforts.

Developing and redeveloping areas is going to be cost prohibitive due to the credit market and crazy environmental regulations.

So yeah, we might see some angry millennials and Gen Zers at some point, so I hope they have rich parents. Because things are looking to get worse.

So it looks like if you locked in a loan or refied anytime in 2022, I think you probably ran the gauntlet. And you did the absolute best you could possibly do.

Seems like people are focused on getting stabilized where they want to be long term. I think we just saw a great migration from east and west of people scrambling to improve their situation.

So I think thats slowed down, inflation has put a dent in buying power, interest rates are up. Commercial real estate is now becoming an issue.

So I think we see a collapse in residential. People are stuck where they are at because they cant afford to move or sell and buy anywhere new. So the market stagnates for an undetermined length of time.

I think they figure out a way to convert commercial buildings to residential. Probably financed by the government. They'll tie the program to green agenda to get it done.

And all that becomes the dawn of dystopian megacities like in the movie Bladerunner.

Somebody's great-great-granbaby gonna be a nexus 6.

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The thing that makes it so ****ty is apartments aren't affordable. It's like people have nowhere to turn for decent affordable housing now.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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It's not a good time to be mid-20s - 30s and trying to get into a starter house like you probably grew up living in.

I think we are about to see angst and resentment from a bunch of hardworking people that now can't afford a reasonable place to live, commensurate with their efforts.

Developing and redeveloping areas is going to be cost prohibitive due to the credit market and crazy environmental regulations.

So yeah, we might see some angry millennials and Gen Zers at some point, so I hope they have rich parents. Because things are looking to get worse.

So it looks like if you locked in a loan or refied anytime in 2022, I think you probably ran the gauntlet. And you did the absolute best you could possibly do.

Seems like people are focused on getting stabilized where they want to be long term. I think we just saw a great migration from east and west of people scrambling to improve their situation.

So I think thats slowed down, inflation has put a dent in buying power, interest rates are up. Commercial real estate is now becoming an issue.

So I think we see a collapse in residential. People are stuck where they are at because they cant afford to move or sell and buy anywhere new. So the market stagnates for an undetermined length of time.

I think they figure out a way to convert commercial buildings to residential. Probably financed by the government. They'll tie the program to green agenda to get it done.

And all that becomes the dawn of dystopian megacities like in the movie Bladerunner.

Somebody's great-great-granbaby gonna be a nexus 6.

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The thing that makes it so ****ty is apartments aren't affordable. It's like people have nowhere to turn for decent affordable housing now.

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Sounds like you are headed for tent living in Austin….or L.A. to get your weed.

Bexar Ag said:

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Anybody else hoping the housing market crashes to jump in?

I thought I would've had a house by now, tired of apartment living but the market needs to fall first

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before I started my remote work from Israel I sold my townhouse in Maryland three months ago- made a nice little profit before the inevitable crash in the economy

the only decision now is-

do I buy property in the Free State of Florida or just keep investing in bonds at 5.3%