UAS Ag said:

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aggie93 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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CREAg87 said:

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It will be interesting to see what the final turnout looks like in that scenario- we'd likely go from a record high year in 2020 to a record low.

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Not a record low. Democrats will turn out in mass to vote against Trump.

No one turns out Democrat voters more than Trump does.

What it would do is depress Republican turnout, giving the Democrats absolute and total control of the government forever.

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More importantly the Dems have already got the mechanisms in place with AI, Mail In, Ballot Harvesting, and micro campaigns targeting voters to assure they will get their folks out. The only question is if Republicans will and if they can convert Independents.

Trump just puts some extra fuel to that fire for Dems and there is a significant fatigue factor with Republicans around him. He has his diehards but there are a LOT of folks that may still vote for him but their enthusiasm is much lower than before. You could see that with the '22 Midterms where consistently Trump candidates underperformed while those Republicans not strongly associated with Trump tended to do fine or very well. It's particularly prevalent in the Suburbs.

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One thing that hasn't really been discussed is how this affects campaign donations.

There will be the Not Trump Republicans that will reluctantly vote for Trump if he's the nominee. But, they're damn sure not going to donate any MONEY to him.

That will really hurt in the general.

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go back the last month in this thread- I have been making that exact point over and over and over again.

the GOP is committing a Banzai charge if they are idiotic enough to nominate Trump.

BMX Bandit said:

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Vivek has no shame. He's a compete charlatan. Sad so many fall for it.

.@VivekGRamaswamy did invite me in. He even called out @RonDeSantis and @NikkiHaley for kicking me out.

He was very nice to me, and I showed up to his event in my Trump hat.

Vivek actually respects free speech and hasn’t embraced the weaponization of government against… https://t.co/aV2f77zg2K pic.twitter.com/wSnFrnHtlH

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) January 13, 2024

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LMAO that is 0657 Saturday morning.

less than 12 hours later Trump goes on his daily insane rants and castigates Vivek calling him a con artist.

Loomer to be excommunicated within a day of posting her picture with new boyfriend Vivek?!

CREAg87 said:

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NEW: President Trump calls out Vivek Ramaswamy—known to many as "Soros Guy"—for being deceitful, disloyal, and not MAGA.

"Vivek is not MAGA."https://t.co/p7tqikUTag pic.twitter.com/AythcSf9sR

— Warlord Max (@MaxNordau) January 13, 2024

Under the bus he goes!

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So which internals are bad that caused this - IA, NH, or both?

just as an aside- look closely at that picture of Ramascamy.

I see "youthful head of tech company in Silicon Valley who won brown noser of his class his senior year in high school"-

I don't see "this is the guy to face down the Iranians"

Interesting… 👀 https://t.co/QljliAwP4k pic.twitter.com/4EMTApXu69

— Dustin Grage 🐊 (@GrageDustin) January 13, 2024

Last IA poll before tha caucus. We'll find out how correct it is on Monday.

Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 14, 2024

Half of Haley’s voters self-ID as independents or Dems, and 77% of them have an unfavorable view of Trump. Possible that her own unfavorable spike w/ caucus-goers is tied to her increasing consolidation of anti-Trump vote

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 14, 2024

Why are the polling independents and democrats. Aren't they ineligible for Iowa Caucus

I am sorry I don't buy that Trump is in a better position than Bush was in 2000. The field had been essentially cleared for Bush. Everyone knew that Bush was the only real choice for the Republicans.

2024 looks nothing like 2000. Nothing. The polls are absolute garbage.

Seriously77 said:

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aggie93 said:

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Seriously77 said:

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DeSantis could have been a major player but that ship has sailed. We need to accept the inevitable, Donald Trump will face Biden for the 47th Presidential race.

No one else can win.

Biden or Trump

Pick your poison

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I will never understand the insistence by so many that we MUST consider the race over before any votes have occurred. If Trump is going to win big so be it, in a month we will have gotten through the first few primaries and it is what it is.

BTW, this isn't an attack against you. It's an attack against the media and the GOP and a number of politicians who have caved to the pressure that Trump has put on them to push this narrative. I still can't believe how many want to nominate a guy who will be 78 years old and not even force him to debate in the primary.

I will say this. If it works for them and we get Trump and he doesn't win or if it ends up being a disaster I will never forget. I already feel like so many folks I used to love to listen to or that were pols I respected are sellouts. The latest is Mike Lee who literally went to fundraisers with DeSantis and is clearly more aligned with him in terms of policy and he comes out a couple days before Iowa and says he has to endorse Trump because it's a binary choice. Coward.

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Okay, support your candidate till the end, I get that.

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We aren't even at the beginning is my point.

Latest Fox poll

Trump
Haley
DeSantis

Takes a lot of money to campaign, soon money will start drying up for the candidates that are statistically falling behind.

DeSantis and Haley need to position with Trump for order and party loyalty as soon as practical. The goal is to beat Biden.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-first-haley-second-desantis-third-highly-anticipated-final-poll-ahead-iowa-caucuses

LMCane said:

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"Loyalty is the most important characteristic of any individual.

that's why I cheated on all three of my wives."

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Loyalty has always been a 1 way street with Trump and always will be. Oh and don't get too popular because there can only be one King. People seem to love it though, just not my thing.

Seriously77 said:

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Latest Fox poll

Trump
Haley
DeSantis

Takes a lot of money to campaign, soon money will start drying up for the candidates that are statistically falling behind.

DeSantis and Haley need to position with Trump for order and party loyalty as soon as practical. The goal is to beat Biden.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-first-haley-second-desantis-third-highly-anticipated-final-poll-ahead-iowa-caucuses

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Results will matter a lot more than polls now.

Seriously77 said:

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Latest Fox poll

Trump
Haley
DeSantis

Takes a lot of money to campaign, soon money will start drying up for the candidates that are statistically falling behind.

DeSantis and Haley need to position with Trump for order and party loyalty as soon as practical. The goal is to beat Biden.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-first-haley-second-desantis-third-highly-anticipated-final-poll-ahead-iowa-caucuses

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Funny that in Trumper world every other candidate is expected to show complete devotion and loyalty to Trump (or The Party because in their eyes Trump = The Party), but Trump himself doesn't owe anybody else anything.

The goal is to position our country's future with the best candidate possible. Right now that's not Trump, so let's let the Primaries play out and hope the voters choose wisely.

Yeah, I don't really buy it, but it is what it is. The ad dollars spent and ground sources paint a different picture than the poll.

Dan Scott said:

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Why are the polling independents and democrats. Aren't they ineligible for Iowa Caucus

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They'd have to register as an R.

This is the one, single poll I felt like would provide some hope for DeSantis going into the caucuses…

He has to go +4 and +32 to pass both Haley and Trump, or a net +36…

Polling missed on Trump/Cruz by +8 Cruz…one of the more notable polling misses of all time in Iowa…

If history were to repeat itself, and a +8 were to fall DeSantis's way, he would pass Haley (and frankly, I still think he edges Haley out)…. I think he still falls well short of Trump, even with a large polling flip his way…. Just see no way possible he flips +32 to pull even to Trump tomorrow…

If he does, it will be an all time shocker…

Absolutely agree…it's now about the actuals…

He needs to do 32 points better than Trump tomorrow to pull even..

Holy **** if he does…that would crown him the comeback king, and it would be unarguable…

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible, though…

aggie93 said:

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LMCane said:

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"Loyalty is the most important characteristic of any individual.

that's why I cheated on all three of my wives."

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Loyalty has always been a 1 way street with Trump and always will be. Oh and don't get too popular because there can only be one King. People seem to love it though, just not my thing.

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1 Samual
6 But when they said, "Give us a king to lead us," this displeased Samuel; so he prayed to the Lord.7 And the Lord told him: "Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king. 8 As they have done from the day I brought them up out of Egypt until this day, forsaking me and serving other gods, so they are doing to you. 9 Now listen to them; but warn them solemnly and let them know what the king who will reign over them will claim as his rights."



God warned the Israelites of the consequences of having a King yet they insisted and the era of Judges ended.


If you want to know the future, study the Old Testament.

PA24 said:

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aggie93 said:

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LMCane said:

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"Loyalty is the most important characteristic of any individual.

that's why I cheated on all three of my wives."

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Loyalty has always been a 1 way street with Trump and always will be. Oh and don't get too popular because there can only be one King. People seem to love it though, just not my thing.

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1 Samual
6 But when they said, "Give us a king to lead us," this displeased Samuel; so he prayed to the Lord.7 And the Lord told him: "Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king. 8 As they have done from the day I brought them up out of Egypt until this day, forsaking me and serving other gods, so they are doing to you. 9 Now listen to them; but warn them solemnly and let them know what the king who will reign over them will claim as his rights."



God warned the Israelites of the consequences of having a King yet they insisted and the era of Judges ended.


If you want to know the future, study the Old Testament.

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What exactly is your specific point here?

He's saying we are demanding a king, so we're going to get one, but he's gonna suck

PA24 said:

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aggie93 said:

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LMCane said:

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"Loyalty is the most important characteristic of any individual.

that's why I cheated on all three of my wives."

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Loyalty has always been a 1 way street with Trump and always will be. Oh and don't get too popular because there can only be one King. People seem to love it though, just not my thing.

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1 Samual
6 But when they said, "Give us a king to lead us," this displeased Samuel; so he prayed to the Lord.7 And the Lord told him: "Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king. 8 As they have done from the day I brought them up out of Egypt until this day, forsaking me and serving other gods, so they are doing to you. 9 Now listen to them; but warn them solemnly and let them know what the king who will reign over them will claim as his rights."



God warned the Israelites of the consequences of having a King yet they insisted and the era of Judges ended.


If you want to know the future, study the Old Testament.

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America was founded on rejecting an earthly king. Let's keep it that way.

https://americainclass.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Common-Sense-Full-Text.pdf

Quote:

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But where, say some, is the King of America? I'll tell you, friend, he reigns above, and doth not make havoc of mankind like the Royal Brute of Great Britain. Yet that we may not appear to be defective even in earthly honors, let a day be solemnly set apart for proclaiming the Charter; let it be brought forth placed on the Divine Law, the Word of God; let a crown be placed thereon, by which the world may know, that so far as we approve of monarchy, that in America the law is king. For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other. But lest any ill use should afterwards arise, let the Crown at the conclusion of the ceremony be demolished, and scattered among the people whose right it is. -Thomas Paine in Common Sense -103

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FireAg said:

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Absolutely agree…it's now about the actuals…

He needs to do 32 points better than Trump tomorrow to pull even..

Holy **** if he does…that would crown him the comeback king, and it would be unarguable…

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible, though…

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Actually it would prove that the polls are propaganda far more than science. At this point with the polling even if he comes within 15 that would be the case since the polls are in the 30 plus range for the most part.

Or not.

If DeSantis comes within 10 this is a case of absolute manipulation. Literally for months the only thing Trump has run on is the polls and every forum DeSantis has had he has had to answer a question about polls. They have avoided talking about issues. Trump has avoided debates. The entire race has been predicated on those polls designed to make Trump inevitable.

If Trump wins by 30 plus then they will prove right that we are just fools and while I won't like it I can accept that much more easily.

If history is any measure, I think DeSantis can be within 15 points tomorrow, and it would not surprise me…within 10 and I will be absolutely surprised, and it certainly raises red flags with regard to polling, but it still doesn't change the outcome ultimately…

I still think DeSantis needs a dub tomorrow to gain momentum…without it, he's treading water at best…but with no dub, he's facing the inevitable as long as Trump is still on the ballot…

If he pulls the dub, even though Iowa is a terrible predictor of R winners in non-incumbent contests, I think a dub really would give him momentum if for no other reason than he'd be the talk of the media in conjunction with how terrible the polling was…

But I fully admit that I'd be shocked if the Des Moines Register, the generally accepted bellwether poll in Iowa historically, is truly THAT wrong…

If it is though, game on…

Phatbob said:

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He's saying we are demanding a king, so we're going to get one, but he's gonna suck

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I am not sayin anything, just quoting scripture that I believe can give us insight.

Leave man alone to his own devices and a reprobate mind takes over, that is also scripture.

We should pray more.

PA24 said:

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aggie93 said:

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LMCane said:

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"Loyalty is the most important characteristic of any individual.

that's why I cheated on all three of my wives."

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Loyalty has always been a 1 way street with Trump and always will be. Oh and don't get too popular because there can only be one King. People seem to love it though, just not my thing.

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1 Samual
6 But when they said, "Give us a king to lead us," this displeased Samuel; so he prayed to the Lord.7 And the Lord told him: "Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king. 8 As they have done from the day I brought them up out of Egypt until this day, forsaking me and serving other gods, so they are doing to you. 9 Now listen to them; but warn them solemnly and let them know what the king who will reign over them will claim as his rights."



God warned the Israelites of the consequences of having a King yet they insisted and the era of Judges ended.


If you want to know the future, study the Old Testament.

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We get the government we deserve. I think you actually made my point honestly.

That said a good question to ask yourself when looking at a candidate is if we had a Parliamentary System would they rather be King or Prime Minister. The King gets all the pomp and circumstance. Everything is named after them. They get the big house and all the trappings. The currency has their picture on it. Outside of truly disgracing themselves they don't lose their position. The Prime Minister lives in a more modest home but has all the real power and is held accountable. They can be pretty easily replaced.

I think far too many of our Presidents would have preferred to be King rather than PM and Trump fits that category. I have zero doubt DeSantis would prefer being PM. Some people crave the idea of having a King though even if they won't admit it.

Phatbob said:

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He's saying we are demanding a king, so we're going to get one, but he's gonna suck

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"We"?

FireAg said:

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If history is any measure, I think DeSantis can be within 15 points tomorrow, and it would not surprise me…within 10 and I will be absolutely surprised, and it certainly raises red flags with regard to polling, but it still doesn't change the outcome ultimately…

I still think DeSantis needs a dub tomorrow to gain momentum…without it, he's treading water at best…but with no dub, he's facing the inevitable as long as Trump is still on the ballot…

If he pulls the dub, even though Iowa is a terrible predictor of R winners in non-incumbent contests, I think a dub really would give him momentum if for no other reason than he'd be the talk of the media in conjunction with how terrible the polling was…

But I fully admit that I'd be shocked if the Des Moines Register, the generally accepted bellwether poll in Iowa historically, is truly THAT wrong…

If it is though, game on…

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I don't disagree with any of that really. Though I do think there are a lot of sinister motives going on in the media. Prior to this election cycle I really thought the MSM was the real problem but now I think the issue is far greater. I just don't have much trust in any of it anymore, I constantly look to facts and try to evaluate how truthful someone or an organization is. I just have been shocked at seeing so many that I trusted to be at least somewhat objective when it comes to conservatives at least completely sell out.

I also think that no matter what DeSantis does, even if he somehow won (which I do not expect) they would make the story about the weather and then talk about the polls in the NH and beyond with little to no reflection on how inaccurate they were in Iowa.

I honestly think a lot of the problem with DeSantis is he simply won't "play ball". I truly think his stance in holding companies like Disney, Blackrock, and Pharma truly accountable and having skins on the wall is the least discussed and most important thing about him. That puts him in direct opposition to all of the media companies and the biggest donors. Disney is a major media company. Blackrock owns part of virtually every major company in the US. Pharma is a huge amount of all advertising on television now and is happy to pay big bucks to sponsor anything.

Or maybe we are just fools that want Trump again and all the polls are right. We will know more tomorrow night. I'm expecting weird delays just like they had in '16 for the Democrats to diminish Bernie winning Iowa last time being also possible. Maybe not. My trust in all of this is just at an all time low and I am skeptical of damn near everything. Oh, and I also put that skepticism towards DeSantis, he just has very rarely shown any signs of being inauthentic and I have looked. Hard.

This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

aggiehawg said:

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This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

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I definitely feel like this is the Carter era all over again. Biden is different personality wise than Carter but policy wise they are kindred spirits. People underestimate just how much damage was done to the country in that time when Carter and the Dems had total control of government. I was just a kid in the '70s (ironically my Dad was stationed at Andrews AFB at the time and I saw Carter a few times). I've mainly just always been a student of history and especially American political history.

I just don't think Trump is remotely like Reagan though I do see parallels with DeSantis. Hell he parrots Reagan all the time, even did with the "pastels" comment in the last debate. Gen X grew up looking up to Reagan as the model.

We will find out soon enough though.

CBS poll.

aggiehawg said:

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CBS poll.

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I blame public "education".

aggiehawg said:

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This is likely before your time but I have been looking back to 1979-1980 time frame for parallels to 2024.

There are several points of contact between what was going on in the country and the world during that time frame. Carter's economy was in the ditch, Iran was acting up, Cold War with USSR (now Russia), America's standing in the world was low after Russia invaded Afghanistan and Carter chose to boycott the Olympics in response.

At home it was a divisive time too with energy crises, inflation and unrest. Americans were dispirited, the time of malaise as it was called. Carter's approval ratings were in the dumpster.

Back then, Reagan was just the actor, few believed he was truly electable. He was viewed as a warhawk, regressive, economic doofus by the elites and chattering classes.

When Frank Luntz very reluctantly admitted he thought Trump would likely win, he was seeing something to bring him kicking and scratching all of the way to such a conclusion.

History may not repeat itself but it can rhyme.

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But, one thing Reagan NEVER had was people that HATED him. Hell, even his enemies LIKED him, even if they hated his policies.

Trump is not like that at all. There is a visceral hate that emanates from his enemies on the left and all their supporters. I've never seen anything like it. I know we had the Bush haters, but they NEVER got this psycho about it.

aggiehawg said:

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CBS poll.

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I didn't realize Hutchinson's extended family was large enough to make up 1% of the voters.