I get that..but 2016 was at least "close" in the polls going into the actual caucus...

On the mornig of the 2016 Iowa Caususes, Cruz trailed Trump by 4.7 points...that's the "day of" polling average...Trump +4.7...

What was the final result?

Cruz won by +3.3

So there was an 8 point swing on caucus day between Trump and Cruz...EIGHT POINTS...


DeSantis would need a 33 point swing if the caucuses were held today to overcome his polling defecit and merely tie Trump...

I don't know about you, but I think an 8-10 point swing in Iowa on caucus day is probably on the extreme end...I think a 33-point swing is unfathomable...

So let's say DeSantis outperforms Cruz's swing and picks up 10 points on caucus day that isn't being indicated in the polling averages...

He still loses by 23 points...

The Iowa Caucuses have never swung 33 points (vs the polling averages) on caucus day...so it would be, by definition, "unprecedented"...

It has never happened...


With that said, "never" is a HUGE word and I hate using it, because while it has never happened before, there is no guarantee it can't, in a blue moon, happen this once...

BUT...if you are playing the odds...you'd be a fool to bet on DeSantis to win with the current data in front of you, and past precedents...

I absolutley believe that DeSantis will do better in the caucuses than the polling indicates...I believe he will absolutley close the gap...but that's a far cry from winning it... If the polling is even off by "double" what it was off by in 2016, he still loses...

Again, where do you disgree with the voter breakdown.

Quote:

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I see you didn't chime in on this thread to disagree with this breakdown:

A Look Back At Iowa 2016 Caucus | TexAgs

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[url=https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3434270][/url]

Seriously77 said:

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Time for DeSantis crowd to rally around Trump.

this election is about to get real.

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If Trump is the nominee I will reluctantly vote for him. That's about the best you are getting from me.

With voter breakdown specifically, I think you're making too many broad assumptions that have to be close to accurate for DeSantis to have the chance you think he has…

Too many variables in your breakdown…keep it simple…

DeSantis needs to be 33 points better on caucus day than he's showing in the polling average…

I believe he will absolutely be better…I don't see any realistic way for him to be 33 points better…

Even 20 points better than the polling average would be stupid-crazy…it's highly unlikely…

aggie93 said:

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Seriously77 said:

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Time for DeSantis crowd to rally around Trump.

this election is about to get real.

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If Trump is the nominee I will reluctantly vote for him. That's about the best you are getting from me.

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Hey it's ok. Sometimes we gotta hold our nose and vote. It happens.

Tell you what…if DeSantis pulls off the miracle in Iowa, I will gladly post on this thread that polling is complete and total garbage, especially in Iowa…

I don't see that happening though…

FireAg said:

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Let me also add...

If DeSantis does indeed pull off that kind of miracle, in the face of being 33 points down in Iowa polling (remember Cruz was down single digits going into Caucus day in 2016) to actually win the caucuses, it would be a monumental upset, and he would certainly be worthy of much praise for pulling it off...

But until I see a candidate erase a 33 point polling defecit on Caucus day, to win if only be a single point (so a 34-point swing), I simply have no rational reason to believe that is possible...

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Actually there is a rational reason, the polls have gotten less and less accurate with the last several cycles and have become more easily manipulated and politicized than ever. Used to be you had a small number of reliable pollsters who could call people on land lines and get a pretty accurate sample. We are so far from that now I don't know where to begin. Many of these polling companies are relatively new or have been purchased. Each has its own methodology. Primary polls don't count towards ratings so they have nothing to stop them from gaming the data.

That being said I expect Trump will win but I think that we all lose if that happens. Not only because I think DeSantis is a better candidate but because of the way Trump has run his campaign. No debates. Minimal appearances. Very few difficult interviews. Tons of negative ads and outright lies and misinformation about his opponents. If Trump wins Iowa he likely wins the nomination and Haley becomes his VP and this method of campaigning is proven out as the way to do it. After Biden won with his basement campaign we will get more of this not less.

Either way we will know in less than 2 weeks. If DeSantis loses I have a clean conscience about it. He ran an issues based campaign and showed people exactly what he will do. First guy I have donated to in decades. If we want the clown show so be it but I know I did all I could to stop it and I can live with that.

Rockdoc said:

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aggie93 said:

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Seriously77 said:

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Time for DeSantis crowd to rally around Trump.

this election is about to get real.

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If Trump is the nominee I will reluctantly vote for him. That's about the best you are getting from me.

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Hey it's ok. Sometimes we gotta hold our nose and vote. It happens.

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I did for Dole and McCain, and Romney. I was happy to vote for Both Bushes at the time even though my feelings on both have soured considerably (much more on W than his Dad). Unfortunately I was too young to vote for Reagan. I'm 52 and have always had Boomer Presidents since I graduated from A&M. It would just be nice to vote for someone I actually want to be President.

aggie93 said:

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Rockdoc said:

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aggie93 said:

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Seriously77 said:

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Time for DeSantis crowd to rally around Trump.

this election is about to get real.

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If Trump is the nominee I will reluctantly vote for him. That's about the best you are getting from me.

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Hey it's ok. Sometimes we gotta hold our nose and vote. It happens.

---

I did for Dole and McCain, and Romney. I was happy to vote for Both Bushes at the time even though my feelings on both have soured considerably (much more on W than his Dad). Unfortunately I was too young to vote for Reagan. I'm 52 and have always had Boomer Presidents since I graduated from A&M. It would just be nice to vote for someone I actually want to be President.

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Well Harry S Truman was president when I was born, if that tells you anything. I've seen a lot of dirty water under the bridge. You have to go with what you think will help the country. To me, our coming choice is clear.

I agree, but i decided to wait till primaries are over to discuss further.

Ag with kids said:

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Ssounds like MAGA is a bunch of CMs, GOPe, libs, RINOs...

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This is not News.

TRM said:

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Again, where do you disgree with the voter breakdown.

Quote:

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I see you didn't chime in on this thread to disagree with this breakdown:

A Look Back At Iowa 2016 Caucus | TexAgs

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[url=https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3434270][/url]

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I looked through that entire thread and didn't see one poll.

Dismissed.

DeSantis should stay in the fight well after Iowa, even if he comes in second place.

With the health of Trump, and the numerous trials about to begin, who knows what can happen 7 months from now.

DeSantis should remain in the race until the convention.

Another great example of how we all lose if Trump wins in Iowa. It will make this type of behavior normalized going forward where we don't want political opponents to debate and discuss issues. Instead we are pressuring folks into staying in echo chambers.

This is the same night as the DeSantis and Haley debate.

Another media blackout on behalf of Trump.@FoxNews has become a fully propaganda outlet.

Same outlet called themselves “fair and balanced” in the past.

Stop watching Fox News. https://t.co/px1are9JJP

— Robert J Salvador (@RobertJSalvador) January 2, 2024

25 minutes of DeSantis talking Economic policy. Dude knows what he is talking about:

If we don’t nominate this man our party deserves to go extinct. So don’t screw this up.

Choose wisely, America. pic.twitter.com/U4zYt3YkqY

— Dustin Grage 🐊 (@GrageDustin) January 3, 2024

FACT: Republicans can't win the Presidency on their own.
FACT: Trump lost in 2020 with 42% of the Independent vote. It will take more than that to win.
FACT: Trump has lost support in that demographic since 2020.
FACT: DeSantis got 54% of Independent voters in Florida and…

— Conservativa Politica (@ConservativaPol) January 3, 2024

It's a fair point...looking at past performances (and I am not going to debate whether 2020 was stolen or not...I will merely assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump lost 2020 "fair and square")...

I think it is important to note, though, that "past performances" are not always indicators of future outcomes... They certainly should be factored into the equation, but the current polling averages, both in the general, and in battleground states, tell a different tale for now:

2024 GE, RCP Average:

MICHIGAN
Trump 45.8% (+4.8)
Biden 41.0%
.
NEVADA
Trump 47.8% (+4.0)
Biden 43.8%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 48.2% (+5.2)
Biden 43.0%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 46.8% (+4.8)
Biden 42.0%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 45.4% (+1.0)
Biden 44.4%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 45.8%
Biden 45.8% https://t.co/rd8e1MckBM pic.twitter.com/o5Rg4ZwQsM

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 27, 2023

I would also add this point...IMHO, all bets are off if/when the D's swap Biden out for someone else...

In terms of the R nomination at this point, I think it's becoming fairly obvious to R's in the House who is the likely nominee:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-house-gop-leaders-close-ranks-republican-reveals-2024-support

So a RINO is supporting a RINO.

Time to kiss his ass so he can pontificate about how great they are .... before launching into them in 6 months because they won't go along with some crazy **** he comes up with that won't pass legal muster.

FireAg said:

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In terms of the R nomination at this point, I think it's becoming fairly obvious to R's in the House who is the likely nominee:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-house-gop-leaders-close-ranks-republican-reveals-2024-support

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Tom Emmer and Scalise? Trump is diving deeper into the Swamp and getting in bed with more Establishment types every day.

In spite of all of this I keep reading and seeing things from sources in Iowa about how much support DeSantis has. He is so much more organized and ready than Trump it's not even comparable. Haley has very little going on there, it's all TV ads and some late org funded by the Kochs, though they had a lot of defections within their org over the Haley support. Some tremendous passion from DeSantis supporters there. They have over 40k Caucus Commits now and have knocked on most doors 3 or more times and have been staying in touch with their supporters. If someone is hardcore Trump they just let them go and they have focused on the soft commit/undecideds which still make up a huge percentage while making sure to maintain their own hardcore supporters. It's truly a campaign of trying to win over voters one at a time.

Of course it's hard to tell what's real and what isn't be it polls or pundits or anything anymore. Going to find out soon enough. The amount of money Trump and Haley have spent attacking DeSantis is just mind blowing though, over $40 million so far which is double what everyone has spent on Biden and about a third of what has been spent on Trump and Haley.

Trump is very much running a DC based/national campaign where most of his support is from DC pols. DeSantis is very focused on ground game and most of his support is from State and Local officials. Haley is just running a corporate sponsored race that logistically cannot win but is designed to get her the VP nod or be in place if something happens to Trump. The coordination with the Trump campaign is obvious.

There is definitely a part of me holding out hope for DeSantis to pull a huge surprise in Iowa and shift the race but I'm also a realist. There is so much dishonest reporting going on but it's hard to know who all is lying and about what. The way the media has treated this and some of the "conservative" pundits has been beyond disgusting. Fox doing an Iowa Town Hall literally during the Debate is just the ultimate "FU" imo. Absolutely disgusting and the fact they are doing EXACTLY what Tucker did for the first debate when Tucker and Fox apparently hate each other is just chef's kiss, it's basically blatant election interference at this point but they don't care. The irony is the same Trump supporters that scream about 2020 think it is awesome now because they foolishly think these folks will help Trump in November.

I remember when the Trump supporters on here hated Fox News.

Here is an example of some of the optimism I am seeing but as I said I am going to wait and see, I'm still donating to DeSantis monthly though as long as he is in the race.

🚨 IOWA UPDATE 🚨

There’s 1,656 precincts locations for the Iowa Caucuses.

Ron DeSantis just announced he has over 1,500 precinct captains.

That means 9/10 Iowa precincts have a trained captain who is already organized for caucus night.

This is single largest ground… pic.twitter.com/RzyxMGFFzm

— Dustin Grage 🐊 (@GrageDustin) January 3, 2024

🚨 UPDATED IE SPENDING 🚨

RON DESANTIS
• In Support: $34,944,769
• Attacked: $40,277,114 🤑

Net = NEGATIVE $5,332,345 😮

NIKKI HALEY
• In Support: $43,373,701
• Attacked: $15,792,876 😴

Net = $27,580,825 💰🤑💰

Nikki Haley is artificially propped up with a $32,913,170… pic.twitter.com/4UlCxFPznJ

— Dustin Grage 🐊 (@GrageDustin) January 3, 2024

The interesting part is the non-renewals of contracts by the Trump campaign.

TRM said:

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The interesting part is the non-renewals of contracts by the Trump campaign.

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Lots of interesting things. I've seen similar from other sources. That said as much as I am a DeSantis guy I also know that folks like this will try to tell a tale that favors him so the proof will be in the pudding in about 12 days. It's just these stories aren't getting much national pub even if they are getting a lot of local pub in Iowa. Most of the stories I see on DeSantis are Iowa media. Many of the national shows just want to ask him about Trump or polls or his heels and he has to fight to actually talk about issues. So most people just see that outside of Iowa and NH. There is also plenty of reason to be skeptical of the polls. Saw another one showing Trump winning the under 30 vote against Biden. I mean you can believe that if you want but my BS meter is off the charts when you start seeing stuff like that. It's like they are polling a TPUSA convention.

aggie93 said:

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TRM said:

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The interesting part is the non-renewals of contracts by the Trump campaign.

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Lots of interesting things. I've seen similar from other sources. That said as much as I am a DeSantis guy I also know that folks like this will try to tell a tale that favors him so the proof will be in the pudding in about 12 days. It's just these stories aren't getting much national pub even if they are getting a lot of local pub in Iowa. Most of the stories I see on DeSantis are Iowa media. Many of the national shows just want to ask him about Trump or polls or his heels and he has to fight to actually talk about issues. So most people just see that outside of Iowa and NH. There is also plenty of reason to be skeptical of the polls. Saw another one showing Trump winning the under 30 vote against Biden. I mean you can believe that if you want but my BS meter is off the charts when you start seeing stuff like that. It's like they are polling a TPUSA convention.

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my friend at the end of the day it does NOT matter what the national media or Fox is doing or not doing right now.

it all comes down to performance in Iowa.

if Desantis wins or makes is close, it's a new ballgame

DeSantis has done everything possible with the entire deck stacked against him (mostly from Trumpers who want to kneecap him the last 7 months)

One can see from Brett Baier's responses on Twitter that he is feeling pressure for what Fox is doing in giving in kind campaign donations to the geriatric.

LMCane said:

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aggie93 said:

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TRM said:

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The interesting part is the non-renewals of contracts by the Trump campaign.

---

Lots of interesting things. I've seen similar from other sources. That said as much as I am a DeSantis guy I also know that folks like this will try to tell a tale that favors him so the proof will be in the pudding in about 12 days. It's just these stories aren't getting much national pub even if they are getting a lot of local pub in Iowa. Most of the stories I see on DeSantis are Iowa media. Many of the national shows just want to ask him about Trump or polls or his heels and he has to fight to actually talk about issues. So most people just see that outside of Iowa and NH. There is also plenty of reason to be skeptical of the polls. Saw another one showing Trump winning the under 30 vote against Biden. I mean you can believe that if you want but my BS meter is off the charts when you start seeing stuff like that. It's like they are polling a TPUSA convention.

---

my friend at the end of the day it does NOT matter what the national media or Fox is doing or not doing right now.

it all comes down to performance in Iowa.

if Desantis wins or makes is close, it's a new ballgame

DeSantis has done everything possible with the entire deck stacked against him (mostly from Trumpers who want to kneecap him the last 7 months)

One can see from Brett Baier's responses on Twitter that he is feeling pressure for what Fox is doing in giving in kind campaign donations to the geriatric.

---

I agree and I have consistently said the votes are what matter, each of the campaigns are taking very different approaches and the media is doing their best to tilt the scales as well.

BTW, a bit more on Fox. So why do they think that right on the edge of the Caucus that Republicans are most concerned about a Town Halls about "Women's issues"? Seriously? Do you know of any GOP voter driven by whatever that is supposed to mean? Of course not for Trump though, he gets his own Town Hall to compete with the CNN Debate.

They aren't putting a thumb on the scale, they are trying to put a 10 ton weight on the scale if they can.

JUST IN: Fox News will host town halls on "women's issues" with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley next week in Des Moines, Iowa

Haley's town hall is Jan. 8, DeSantis' is Jan. 9

— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) January 3, 2024

Haley has nudged ever so slightly past DeSantis to take over 2nd place nationally...

I honestly expect DeSantis and Haley to swap spots back and forth for #2 in remaining days before Iowa...



DeSantis has no momentum...he is going to need to win Iowa to stay relevant, it appears...

CNN debate should have an empty podium in the middle between Haley and DeSantis for Trump.

aggie93 said:

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LMCane said:

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aggie93 said:

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TRM said:

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The interesting part is the non-renewals of contracts by the Trump campaign.

---

Lots of interesting things. I've seen similar from other sources. That said as much as I am a DeSantis guy I also know that folks like this will try to tell a tale that favors him so the proof will be in the pudding in about 12 days. It's just these stories aren't getting much national pub even if they are getting a lot of local pub in Iowa. Most of the stories I see on DeSantis are Iowa media. Many of the national shows just want to ask him about Trump or polls or his heels and he has to fight to actually talk about issues. So most people just see that outside of Iowa and NH. There is also plenty of reason to be skeptical of the polls. Saw another one showing Trump winning the under 30 vote against Biden. I mean you can believe that if you want but my BS meter is off the charts when you start seeing stuff like that. It's like they are polling a TPUSA convention.

---

my friend at the end of the day it does NOT matter what the national media or Fox is doing or not doing right now.

it all comes down to performance in Iowa.

if Desantis wins or makes is close, it's a new ballgame

DeSantis has done everything possible with the entire deck stacked against him (mostly from Trumpers who want to kneecap him the last 7 months)

One can see from Brett Baier's responses on Twitter that he is feeling pressure for what Fox is doing in giving in kind campaign donations to the geriatric.

---

I agree and I have consistently said the votes are what matter, each of the campaigns are taking very different approaches and the media is doing their best to tilt the scales as well.

BTW, a bit more on Fox. So why do they think that right on the edge of the Caucus that Republicans are most concerned about a Town Halls about "Women's issues"? Seriously? Do you know of any GOP voter driven by whatever that is supposed to mean? Of course not for Trump though, he gets his own Town Hall to compete with the CNN Debate.

They aren't putting a thumb on the scale, they are trying to put a 10 ton weight on the scale if they can.

JUST IN: Fox News will host town halls on "women's issues" with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley next week in Des Moines, Iowa

Haley's town hall is Jan. 8, DeSantis' is Jan. 9

— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) January 3, 2024

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I am convinced you are either a moderator for Texags or actually work for them.(I have No issues with either)

I was the very first poster to log on after the crash in 1999 yet you indicate a full day before me.