aggie93 said:
FireAg said:
Well, I am specifically using the 538 conglomerate, which consequently, also shows Biden likely defeating Trump in a head-to-head…so I'm not sure there is any real bias there…They also show that RD likely beats Biden in a head-to-head, so I think the polling averages are consistent with those of you who argue "Trump can't beat Biden but RD can"…
After getting egg on their face in 2016, 538 revamped their approach…
What their polling averages show over time is that RD did get a bit of a bump in the polls when he entered the race in late May, and the gap did indeed shrink marginally, but since then, it has widened beyond what it was before he threw his hat in the ring…
Right now, I don't think RD will be the R nominee, and the trend is getting worse…
I also don't think Trump beats Biden in the general, but to be fair, that gap has stayed fairly flat comparatively…
The problem is if RD can't get past Trump in the primary, how he'd likely fair against Biden in the general is a moot point…and frankly, that's the problem as I see it…but I didn't form this opinion off of a gut feel…I'm using data averages from a reputable source…
I can appreciate the fact that you believe that RD is hitting his stride and finding his voice…but you do have a bias there because you are all in on RD…
If the polling gap starts to narrow again, I will be the first one to jump on here and agree with you that he is gaining steam and finding his voice and breaking through the Trump noise…
But it simply isn't what's happening at the moment…
The problem is you are obsessed with the polls and if you have followed campaigns historically you should understand that they are just a data point among many at this stage.
Want an example? DeSantis has had a great week filled with excellent interviews and news campaign wise. Good luck finding it covered on regular news and it's a few stories back on GOP political shows. Why? It's 6 months from Iowa and there are just far more interesting stories. Now you can say DeSantis has to break through but that's very unlikely. People aren't going to pay attention until Iowa is close and Nationally people won't pay attention until after Iowa.
I expect you will continue to post national polls with average breakdowns over and over but it just shows me you either are pushing an agenda or you're new to the game.
Well your assumptions about me are dead wrong, but I do appreciate that you are one of the few here who can express their opinions respectfully...
My only counter to saying that "it's just a data point" is that, statistically, it really isn't because those "data points" in the 538 conglomerate averages actually use multiple data points (in this case, polling results on a given day covering a given period of time prior to that polling date), so they really are the best empirical tool we have available to gain a sense of "where things stand" in the political campaign landscape today, and how they have evolved to this point over the current campaign season...
Because it's an average, I think it is a good representation of what things look like today...
Does that mean they can't evolve and show a tighter gap between Trump and DeSantis in the coming weeks? Of course not, and I will happily point that out should that indeed be what happens... However, what has grabbed my attention in recent weeks is the
widening of the gap between the two... It narrowed slightly right after the DeSantis announcement on May 24th, but the closest the gap has been since May 24th is Trump +26.4% on June 24th...as of today, it's Trump +37.8...On June 1, one week after the DeSantis official announcement, the gap was Trump +29.5%..All of that tells me that it took about 2.5-3-weeks for the DeSantis announcement to bake into the polls, and while it helped a little, any momentum from that has disappeared and then some...
The closest the two have polled since Jan 1, 2023 has been Trump +1.9% on Jan 7, 2023...well before DeSantis officially entered the race...
At this point, currently, it looks to me like the R-primary electorate, in general, simply has not been blown away by DeSantis
and/or (and I personally think it's the "or") the constant Trump media coverage (whether good, bad, or hideous) is drowning out DeSantis... Could a good first debate showing by DeSantis help boost him? Absolutely... However, based on past precedent, I believe the headline that will win the day after that first debate will be "Trump didn't show" as opposed to "DeSantis is a badass"... But I absolutely could be wrong...
At this point, the Trump inertia just seems impenetrable... I am starting to think that for DeSantis to have a truly legit shot at the R-nomination, something is going to have to happen to Trump that absolutely prevents him from being on the primary ballot...
