Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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I think it's hyperbole myself...but I do think there is some underlying truth in it because, if it can be done to Trump, it can be done to anyone...and as hawg points out, there's literally nothing to stop up...

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And that is still not any kind of a reason to vote for Trump.

I agree that they will try with whomever is the GOP nominee, though.

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Cool...he's going to be the R nominee...so I guess your choices are 3rd party or stay home...

Those are certainly your right...

But if you want to vote R in the general, Trump will be the name at the top unless something drastic and unprecedented happens to him...and again, nothing prevents him from being on ballots if he is in jail...

So it really would have to be something extreme...

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There is another option. R down ballot and no Presidency vote. I think that will happen quite a bit, if he is the nominee and there is no reasonable 3rd party option.

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And that is going to change our nation's path how exactly? Everyone always marvels at the power of down-ballot, but when has that ever actually shifted the inertia in this country?

The biggest inertia shift we've had in modern times has been 2016, which then led to the conservative control of SCOTUS, which is pretty much the only firewall still trying to keep our forefather's Republic from driving off the cliff...

But it took POTUS candidate coattails down ballot to make that happen...

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It adds a data point, just like any other vote. My vote would be one of millions, but my vote for down ballot and not for President might send the message that Trump is the WRONG direction. If anyone cares to look into the numbers, it says I won't vote for a Democrat, but I also won't vote for an incompetent grifter, either. They are not owed my vote just because they aren't Joe Biden... give us better options and earn my vote.

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and this is exactly what happened in 2020 when Trump lost by 6 million votes but the GOP candidates in the House GAINED seats.

of course, the response by Trumpers is "well cheating!!"

FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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And let me add this...

If they can use lawfare against Trump to keep him out of office...what makes anyone think that the establishment can't use the same tactics against any other non-establishment candidate, including Ron DeSantis?

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They can TRY. And they will.

Is that a reason to vote for Trump?

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You don't seem to get it...there is nothing to stop them from doing it, and nothing to stop them from being successful at it...

Voting for Trump or voting for DeSantis isn't even the argument...if the establishment doesn't want you in office because you are a threat to their vision of this nation (and the global, progressive society at large) there is quite literally nothing to stop it...outside of armed conflict and redoing this thing called 'America' from scratch...

Our laws are being used against us, and the media is absolutley pushing only one side of the narrative (as they did with Steelem, quid pro quo, Jan 6, Floyd, Covid, and the persecution that Trump has specifically endured since being removed from office)... I know hawg hopes it doesn't get to soem sort of civil conflict, but I frankly see no other recourse to stop it...

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So, then it's all over. What's there to talk about then? You've already stated we're in checkmate.

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I make no inferences otherwise...I believe we are as close to checkmate as we have ever been...

I am holding out hope that Trump would have a big enough lead going into election day 2024 that it would make the steal damn near impossible to pull off (at least in the same manner as the last time), but that also assumes Biden is the opponent, which I am still not yet willing to assume... So there are still too many variables for me to be 100% confident...but my confidence level, based on data available today, is at about 80%... I would have said 99% if Trump had not passed Biden in polling a few months back...and I think that has the DNC looking for a suitable alternative (and the Newsom trial balloon didn't get the results they had hoped for)...

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Cool, so not voting Trump won't matter. We've lost already.

LMCane said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Phatbob said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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I think it's hyperbole myself...but I do think there is some underlying truth in it because, if it can be done to Trump, it can be done to anyone...and as hawg points out, there's literally nothing to stop up...

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And that is still not any kind of a reason to vote for Trump.

I agree that they will try with whomever is the GOP nominee, though.

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Cool...he's going to be the R nominee...so I guess your choices are 3rd party or stay home...

Those are certainly your right...

But if you want to vote R in the general, Trump will be the name at the top unless something drastic and unprecedented happens to him...and again, nothing prevents him from being on ballots if he is in jail...

So it really would have to be something extreme...

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There is another option. R down ballot and no Presidency vote. I think that will happen quite a bit, if he is the nominee and there is no reasonable 3rd party option.

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And that is going to change our nation's path how exactly? Everyone always marvels at the power of down-ballot, but when has that ever actually shifted the inertia in this country?

The biggest inertia shift we've had in modern times has been 2016, which then led to the conservative control of SCOTUS, which is pretty much the only firewall still trying to keep our forefather's Republic from driving off the cliff...

But it took POTUS candidate coattails down ballot to make that happen...

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It adds a data point, just like any other vote. My vote would be one of millions, but my vote for down ballot and not for President might send the message that Trump is the WRONG direction. If anyone cares to look into the numbers, it says I won't vote for a Democrat, but I also won't vote for an incompetent grifter, either. They are not owed my vote just because they aren't Joe Biden... give us better options and earn my vote.

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and this is exactly what happened in 2020 when Trump lost by 6 million votes but the GOP candidates in the House GAINED seats.

of course, the response by Trumpers is "well cheating!!"

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But...the COATTAILS!!!

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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And let me add this...

If they can use lawfare against Trump to keep him out of office...what makes anyone think that the establishment can't use the same tactics against any other non-establishment candidate, including Ron DeSantis?

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They can TRY. And they will.

Is that a reason to vote for Trump?

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You don't seem to get it...there is nothing to stop them from doing it, and nothing to stop them from being successful at it...

Voting for Trump or voting for DeSantis isn't even the argument...if the establishment doesn't want you in office because you are a threat to their vision of this nation (and the global, progressive society at large) there is quite literally nothing to stop it...outside of armed conflict and redoing this thing called 'America' from scratch...

Our laws are being used against us, and the media is absolutley pushing only one side of the narrative (as they did with Steelem, quid pro quo, Jan 6, Floyd, Covid, and the persecution that Trump has specifically endured since being removed from office)... I know hawg hopes it doesn't get to soem sort of civil conflict, but I frankly see no other recourse to stop it...

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So, then it's all over. What's there to talk about then? You've already stated we're in checkmate.

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I make no inferences otherwise...I believe we are as close to checkmate as we have ever been...

I am holding out hope that Trump would have a big enough lead going into election day 2024 that it would make the steal damn near impossible to pull off (at least in the same manner as the last time), but that also assumes Biden is the opponent, which I am still not yet willing to assume... So there are still too many variables for me to be 100% confident...but my confidence level, based on data available today, is at about 80%... I would have said 99% if Trump had not passed Biden in polling a few months back...and I think that has the DNC looking for a suitable alternative (and the Newsom trial balloon didn't get the results they had hoped for)...

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Cool, so not voting Trump won't matter. We've lost already.

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I think you will be in the minority with that stance, but you are absolutely within your right to do so...I don't fault anyone who chooses that path...I just think that things are so bad now, that a lot of people are going to hold their nose and vote Trump...

Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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Ag with kids said:

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FireAg said:

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I think it's hyperbole myself...but I do think there is some underlying truth in it because, if it can be done to Trump, it can be done to anyone...and as hawg points out, there's literally nothing to stop up...

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And that is still not any kind of a reason to vote for Trump.

I agree that they will try with whomever is the GOP nominee, though.

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Cool...he's going to be the R nominee...so I guess your choices are 3rd party or stay home...

Those are certainly your right...

But if you want to vote R in the general, Trump will be the name at the top unless something drastic and unprecedented happens to him...and again, nothing prevents him from being on ballots if he is in jail...

So it really would have to be something extreme...

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And again, none of that is a reason to vote FOR Trump.

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I hope you understand that I am not personally trying to convince you to "vote for Trump"...thought I had been clear on that stance previsouly, as frankly, I can't give an amazing reason to do so in the general other than he will be the only viable alternative to Biden...

Leave it blank and vote for R's down ballot...totally you're right...

FireAg said:

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I didn't say it was a good theory…I simply haven't been able to find a better one, but I'm open to other suggestions…

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Hey, who knows with the Dems and politics in the 21st Century, but I don't think even they would be so stupid to put up Jill.

Biden will be definitely replaced, and Newsom has been my thought for his replacement for a long time. But as mentioned above, even most Lib MSM mouthpieces are having a hard time complimenting him after last week's debate. (Sidenote, does anyone think Trump would have pulled off that performance against Newsom?)

So who's up next? I honestly don't know. I think the Dems are scrambling right now and waiting to see whether the Rep nominee will be Trump or DeSantis/Haley. And yes, I think they'll wait until possibly the Primaries have started and then pull some shenanigans to remove Biden from the card. They need that time to figure out who they're running against so they can pivot to who they think will be the best option.

All 3 of the top R's poll ahead of Biden currently...

In order:

Haley (+4)
Trump (+1.7)
DeSantis (+0.8)

So I do think it is inevitable that they replace Biden...just not sure how...

Did you see the thread aggie93 started (maybe last week?) on a potential mechanism for them to do it? It was an interesting material he posted.

Quote:

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The ideal time to complete that process would be during the Democratic National Convention in August. Delegates are awarded to candidates during primaries throughout the first half of the year, but they won't elect a candidate for president until they vote during that convention.

If Biden wins a majority of delegates but wants to step down, he could use a speech prior to the convention or even during the week to endorse another candidate.

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Quote:

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Under Democratic Party rules, pledged delegates are not required to vote for the candidate they represent but are told to "reflect the sentiments of those who elected them," so an endorsement from Biden would be very influential.

If there are multiple candidates, but a majority voted in line with Biden's wishes, that candidate would become the Democrats' presidential nominee. This would be a variation on what is usually called a contested convention.

If Biden fails to convince a majority in this hypothetical, and no candidate wins the first ballot at the convention, a brokered convention would take place. Delegates are released from their pledges, so leading figures in the nominating process, like party leaders and congresspeople, would try to persuade delegates to support their preferred candidate instead.

Rounds of voting would take place until one candidate reaches a majority.

Even the cleanest version of this process is messy. Biden would have to decide between endorsing his own vice president, who is officially next in line for his job but unpopular with voters, or a less known and untested alternative.

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Quote:

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Contested and brokered conventions are rare in the modern era. The last convention that approached "contested" status was the 1980 Democratic race, when Sen. Ted Kennedy tried to take the nomination from President Jimmy Carter. Republicans also came close in 1976; that contest was between then-Gov. Ronald Reagan and President Gerald Ford. Both parties had brokered conventions in 1952.

This all makes a second Biden run the most likely outcome in 2024. If a candidate wants to change that, they would need to act now and accept that they are taking on an unprecedented challenge.

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LINK

Exactly hawg,, something along those lines is what I'm envisioning.

And I think its silly for that article, considering what we've seen take place over the past decade in US politics, to almost brush aside the thought of a contested or brokered convention as unlikely.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Exactly hawg,, something along those lines is what I'm envisioning.

And I think its silly for that article, considering what we've seen take place over the past decade in US politics, to almost brush aside the thought of a contested or brokered convention as unlikely.

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Agreed. After watching how smoothly the dem establishment cleared out Buttigeg, Warren, Bloomberg and Klobuchar to make sure Biden would beat Bernie (still holding out hope the Republican establishment is smart enough to do this after Iowa) I have no doubt this is already planned and will be rolled out prior to the convention. Just a question of who it will be.

DeSantis lives rent free in Trump's head. Might be a tongue-in-cheek comment, but with Trump, it is impossible to tell one way or the other.

Trump weighs in on FSU being left out of CFP pic.twitter.com/dS6eysR8kG

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) December 4, 2023

aggie93 said:

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Foreverconservative said:

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FireAg said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Despite all of claims there is no Plan B and Biden will be the nominee for the Dems, I don't think that actually happens.

So in the end, how well Trum polls against Biden would be moot. Ditto for Haley.

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I'm with you...I truly think the DNC wants to pivot to a different candidate...but I think the Newsom debate test balloon failed to generate any momentum...

Part of me has been wondering if they would try to swap Dr. Jill for Grandpa Joe...We've certainly seen spouses assume the ticket (or seat) from the deceased...could they do the same for the election and just put Dr. Jill on the ballots instead?

They're running out of time to make a change, though...unless they were to pass new rules at the convention to facilitate the swap at that point...

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Their only choice left is to have a brokered convention, with all the state deadlines they have missed. The last one was in 1924 and was a losing race for the D's.

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All they have to do is get Joe to die or drop out. There is plenty of momentum to find an alternative, it's just who. When you have the MSM carrying water for you that helps tremendously because they can hide how the sausage gets made and most Dems really don't care, they have shown they will vote for terrible candidates without hesitation. It's not like Republicans are much better.

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This late in the campaign even dying doesn't avoid a brokered convention. Too many state ballot deadlines have passed and even the knuckleheads down in Florida are saying they are not going to allow anyone else on the primary ballot, which is their right evidently according to the court. The DNC's definition of a free and fair election is a contradiction in terms. If the end up in a brokered convention they will just buy off delegates just like they did against Bernie for Hillary. I'll never forget that look on the old socialist face live on TV when he got 86'd in 2016.

Quote:

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This late in the campaign even dying doesn't avoid a brokered convention. Too many state ballot deadlines have passed and even the knuckleheads down in Florida are saying they are not going to allow anyone else on the primary ballot, which is their right evidently according to the court. The DNC's definition of a free and fair election is a contradiction in terms. If the end up in a brokered convention they will just buy off delegates just like they did against Bernie for Hillary. I'll never forget that look on the old socialist face live on TV when he got 86'd in 2016.

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They did the same thing to Hillary in 2008 with the superdelegates going for Obama. Hillary had been working those connections for decades and they bailed on her for the shiny new object, Obama. Then by 2016, DWS had so badly managed the DNC's fundraising, they were broke. So Hillary funded them. She was now owed twice to get the nomination and burn Bernie.

Foreverconservative said:

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aggie93 said:

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Foreverconservative said:

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FireAg said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Despite all of claims there is no Plan B and Biden will be the nominee for the Dems, I don't think that actually happens.

So in the end, how well Trum polls against Biden would be moot. Ditto for Haley.

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I'm with you...I truly think the DNC wants to pivot to a different candidate...but I think the Newsom debate test balloon failed to generate any momentum...

Part of me has been wondering if they would try to swap Dr. Jill for Grandpa Joe...We've certainly seen spouses assume the ticket (or seat) from the deceased...could they do the same for the election and just put Dr. Jill on the ballots instead?

They're running out of time to make a change, though...unless they were to pass new rules at the convention to facilitate the swap at that point...

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Their only choice left is to have a brokered convention, with all the state deadlines they have missed. The last one was in 1924 and was a losing race for the D's.

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All they have to do is get Joe to die or drop out. There is plenty of momentum to find an alternative, it's just who. When you have the MSM carrying water for you that helps tremendously because they can hide how the sausage gets made and most Dems really don't care, they have shown they will vote for terrible candidates without hesitation. It's not like Republicans are much better.

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This late in the campaign even dying doesn't avoid a brokered convention. Too many state ballot deadlines have passed and even the knuckleheads down in Florida are saying they are not going to allow anyone else on the primary ballot, which is their right evidently according to the court. The DNC's definition of a free and fair election is a contradiction in terms. If the end up in a brokered convention they will just buy off delegates just like they did against Bernie for Hillary. I'll never forget that look on the old socialist face live on TV when he got 86'd in 2016.

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Right, the Dems just don't care if they have a Brokered Convention or even have a choice in who they vote for. They will just get in line. So until Biden is actually nominate at the Convention next Summer he can be replaced and can be done very quickly and with little outrage. It's how they roll.

The GOP isn't a lot better btw. I mean how many are screaming that we should suspend the primaries and just nominate Trump or give him all our money. We get the process we deserve.

🚨 🚨THIS IS HOW YOU HELP THE MIDDLE CLASS🚨🚨@RonDeSantis telling the nation that community banks (who primarily finance new small business for middle class folks pursuing the American Dream) have gotten WHACKED by Dodd Frank and other banking regulations.

SUPER IMPORTANT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/zEotEZIiCr

— Nate (@BurningDoor99) December 4, 2023

He is spot on there. Especially regarding Dodd-Frank.

Old May Banker said:

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He is spot on there. Especially regarding Dodd-Frank.

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Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley and the CFPB are all garbage.

When you MAGA types are whining about his looks, or his shoes, it is now his voice. You people don't care about policy or substance. Actually since Trump has no style, not sure what you actually care about except an old man.

Thanks for once more proving what most people think about MAGA is correct.

PA24 said:

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Cant stand to listen to his whiney voice. Going to enjoy watching him fall from grace after he drops out.

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Please list his policies that make you feel this way.

I agree, DeSantis isn't hot enough to be president.

PA24 said:

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Cant stand to listen to his whiney voice. Going to enjoy watching him fall from grace after he drops out.

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Why would you enjoy watching the most effective conservative legislator in a couple decades "fall from grace"? Almost as if your loyalty is only to one conman and nothing else. I think there's a name for that…

PA24 said:

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Cant stand to listen to his whiney voice. Going to enjoy watching him fall from grace after he drops out.

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I'm glad PA24 is just confirming what we all know to be true. He's not concerned with what's best for the country or even concerned with Trump winning really. He's simply a troll concerned with defeating DeSantis and beating all of the DeSantis supporters on this board so he can laugh at him and us. He's a superficial voter basing his vote on "feels".

So Trafalgar has had a lot of outlier polling and isn't releasing internals and has heavily favored Trump. They missed badly in '22 as well. Then literally right at the deadline for the next debate they just gave Christie a huge bump poll that magically is going to qualify him for the debate. BTW Trafalgar also "saved" Burgum for the first debate and "saved" both Christie and Scott for the last debate. The goal is a crowded stage.

They are all totally legit though folks. BTW, I am hearing internals in Iowa are around 38-28 Trump and that's not a DeSantis internal. I generally don't like to post things without good sourcing but most of these polls are complete garbage and they are being treated like Gospel. A National poll btw has zero accountability because they will never be truly tested by the votes or by the time they are they can easily be said that things changed. I have no trust in any of this stuff.

If you needed more proof that Trafalgar was a piece of trash scam poll, just look at this.

The only poll all year to have Christie at 6% is this one, just before the deadline.

The polls are a scam. Have been for a few years now. https://t.co/fZjAx6WJxb

— Max Twain (@MaxTwain24) December 4, 2023

Rapier108 said:

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When you MAGA types are whining about his looks, or his shoes, it is now his voice. You people don't care about policy or substance. Actually since Trump has no style, not sure what you actually care about except an old man.

Thanks for once more proving what most people think about MAGA is correct.

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Let this troll ramble on. He is doing more to make Trump look bad to fence setters than anything we could say.

Christie still needs a 2nd qualifying state poll to make it in, but the this poll is an outlier (if you believe earlier polls)

aggie93 said:

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🚨 🚨THIS IS HOW YOU HELP THE MIDDLE CLASS🚨🚨@RonDeSantis telling the nation that community banks (who primarily finance new small business for middle class folks pursuing the American Dream) have gotten WHACKED by Dodd Frank and other banking regulations.

SUPER IMPORTANT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/zEotEZIiCr

— Nate (@BurningDoor99) December 4, 2023

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DeSantis gets it. Not only does he embrace capitalism, he understands what makes it go. His words about small business are 100% truth and music to my ears. If he manages to get elected, there is almost no overstating the amount of good he could do for small business and the economy overall. If there is any sanity left in this world, he will be the nominee.

What's sad is that in 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster who really saw Trump had a chance of winning. Everyone else pretty much had Hillary as a lock.

Then in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they were way off, sometimes embarrassingly so. Some of their predictions in 2022 for the MAGA candidates were so bad they should have just closed up shop for good after the election.

Rapier108 said:

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What's sad is that in 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster who really saw Trump had a chance of winning. Everyone else pretty much had Hillary as a lock.

Then in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they were way off, sometimes embarrassingly so. Some of their predictions in 2022 for the MAGA candidates were so bad they should have just closed up shop for good after the election.

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Did you stop to consider the election fraud is something pollsters cannot detect?

aggiehawg said:

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Rapier108 said:

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What's sad is that in 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster who really saw Trump had a chance of winning. Everyone else pretty much had Hillary as a lock.

Then in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they were way off, sometimes embarrassingly so. Some of their predictions in 2022 for the MAGA candidates were so bad they should have just closed up shop for good after the election.

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Did you stop to consider the election fraud is something pollsters cannot detect?

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Bingo

If DeSantis wins Iowa, I will hold my nose and vote for the little fellow.
But he is not going to win Squat, not even his home state.

It is an obvious race between Biden and Trump

PA24 said:

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If DeSantis wins Iowa, I will hold my nose and vote for the little fellow.
But he is not going to win Squat, not even his home state.

It is an obvious race between Biden and Trump

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He might be able to pull it out. I'm watching closely. DeSantis is doing better in his interviews lately, in my view.

Hope his PACs can get their acts together.

aggiehawg said:

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Rapier108 said:

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What's sad is that in 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster who really saw Trump had a chance of winning. Everyone else pretty much had Hillary as a lock.

Then in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they were way off, sometimes embarrassingly so. Some of their predictions in 2022 for the MAGA candidates were so bad they should have just closed up shop for good after the election.

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Did you stop to consider the election fraud is something pollsters cannot detect?

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I know you think that the fraud was so massive that it swapped 40-50+ million votes, but it didn't.

The fraud was very specific and targeted in the locations necessary to flip the EC, but not so big enough to obviously stand out. There was no reason to flip votes in California, New York, or Illinois, or numerous other Democrat states, but they still had higher turnout in 2020 because no one turns out Democrat voters more than Trump. Don't forget that Republicans did better in New York and California in 2022 because the state parties turned the Democrat Party's tactics against them and won numerous competitive districts.

If you really think Trump, or Lake, or Oz, or any other Trump candidate was going to win by 10, 20, 25+ points in states which are always close regardless of who is running and who wins, then this is a pointless discussion.

Rapier108 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Rapier108 said:

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What's sad is that in 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster who really saw Trump had a chance of winning. Everyone else pretty much had Hillary as a lock.

Then in 2018, 2020, and 2022, they were way off, sometimes embarrassingly so. Some of their predictions in 2022 for the MAGA candidates were so bad they should have just closed up shop for good after the election.

---

Did you stop to consider the election fraud is something pollsters cannot detect?

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I know you think that the fraud was so massive that it swapped 40-50+ million votes, but it didn't.

The fraud was very specific and targeted in the locations necessary to flip the EC, but not so big enough to obviously stand out. There was no reason to flip votes in California, New York, or Illinois, or numerous other Democrat states, but they still had higher turnout in 2020 because no one turns out Democrat voters more than Trump. Don't forget that Republicans did better in New York and California in 2022 because the state parties turned the Democrat Party's tactics against them and won numerous competitive districts.

If you really think Trump, or Lake, or Oz, or any other Trump candidate was going to win by 10, 20, 25+ points in states which are always close regardless of who is running and who wins, then this is a pointless discussion.

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I have never said that.

I know just how targeted the fraud was in a few swing states. In a few select cities/counties in those states. And it happened again in 2022. Just a different method, such as in Maricopa County. Ballot definition files were altered. That can only happen by design. Then again, Maricopa County has over 12,000 different ballot definition files since they have county-wide voting. Even the expert witness for Maricopa County admitted as much. (While he appeared by zoom, from a nearby location and was clearly reading his responses from another computer. In short, Lake won as did Hamadeh.)

Now stories are coming out in PA for 2022. Some of those are actually at the primary level. Did the Dems select the primary opponents to cover up for the general election results, too? Pretty easy to do if they have a mind to do. And we know they definitely have a mind to do so.

So continue to act like election integrity does not matter one whit and DeSantis can win in a general all you wish. Doesn't make it even close to the truth. My batting average on this subject has (unfortunately) been very high.