ac04 said:
newsletter from a very respected industry consultant
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Let's take a stroll down memory lane and see what we can learn from past beer brand deaths… and no, I'm not saying Bud Light is dying- even though it is damn sick right now… just what can we learn from history.
When I first started working with beer distributors, I worked with a few of these folks and saw first-hand the challenges that confronted them and more importantly, what drove the demise of what were once big brands.
Old Style once ruled Chicago. Hudepohl the same in Cincinnati. Rainer, Olympia, Stroh, PBR… the list is long. They owned the bars… their signage ruled.
But then it started. It wasn't the result of some grand marketing scheme, it wasn't really driven by anyone, it just started happening. It no longer was "cool" to be seen drinking these products in young, adult bars. In fact, it was decidedly uncool to be seen with one in your hand.
No one told the consumer this… it was basically just a social contagion that silently spread through these bars. You could still go into the corner bar and have one with all the old guys but in the hip and happening places you didn't want to be seen with an Old Style in your hand. Not getting laid that way.
That once powerhouse brand Budweiser once 1 in 4 of every beer consumed was a Bud also went through this exact process. In recent years it kind of made a full circle and became "retro-cool" in some of these bars… following the PBR model.
But for these brands, that was that. These brands went from powerhouse brands that people were once proud to drink, to brands that were mostly value-driven and consumed off-premise or in small and likely dying corner bars and taverns.
ABI and Bud Light face a similar but slightly different situation. These historic brand demises were a natural occurrence as people's tastes and perceptions change. But Bud Light's situation is driven by other forces.
So it's not the young, adult bars that are the canary in the coalmine but of course if Bud Light loses these, it's lights out - but high volume sports and blue collar bars. It seems in many of these bars a Bud Light drinker is likely to be verbally harassed by other patrons.
If this drives a larger social movement where it becomes "un-cool" to drink Bud Light or for that matter any ABI product it will be very bad news for ABI distributors across the land.
And just like Old Style, Hudepohl, and yes even Bud once it starts there is no force that will stop it. No amount of advertising or marketing will change this. It is an organic process driven by no one. It is diffuse and like the tide, no matter what you do it ain't going to change much.
Will this happen? It's already happening… the only question is the degree and whether it sticks. And if it sticks, it will be a self-inflicted brand suicide that has no peer in modern times.
Those old Schlitz execs are looking down from heaven with smiles on their faces as they no longer are the title holders of the biggest screwup in the history of beer. Heck, this might turn out to be the biggest screwup of any consumer product. Real men of genius.
And as ABI is learning, they are now in the game and no matter what they do, someone will be pissed at them. They had better accept this and decide who they'd rather piss off. My vote would be the alphabet people but ABI isn't listening to me.
I've reached out to them to try to help them through this I'm a mercenary remember. But the window is quickly closing on the opportunity to turn this thing around and I don't see they yet even understand the essence of what they did. Thus, my bet is on more mistakes and stupidity.
And I can't decide whether to laugh or cry at their hiring some conservative lobbyists to help them keep conservative Washington politicians on their side. I think the number of beer drinkers whose brand choices are influenced by ANY politician is rather small. But what do I know? Trump Jr's attempt to support Bud Light only served to damage his standing.
This is the first time many almost all? of these folks ever faced challenges like this. This is their turn in the barrel and so far, they certainly aren't rising to the occasion.
And lastly, I have to beat up my friend Harry for his cowardice. No, not his and Benj's dancing around this as to not lose all those ABI subscriptions that is bad enough.
But Dylan Mulvaney is a guy. HE is a male. From the moment that Y chromosome sperm sealed the deal it was set he was a he.
HE is not a SHE. And no amount of facial surgery, boob implants, or even cutting off the old pecker will change this reality.
Over the weekend Dylan said he wished it to become against the law to say what I just did.
But bowing down to our modern day Khmer Rouge just shows a surprising lack of character. Just like ABI is finding, this truly is a war and whether you like it or not, you will be forced to choose sides. No way around it.
And this has nothing to do with being gay or lesbian.
But calling a guy a she in an attempt to placate those who can't be placated is the wrong path to take.
jc
There is a giant gaping hole in that story and that is Miller Lite and the ensuing rapid rise of the American Light Lager 'diet beer'. The concept of a beer that could 'taste great' and be 'less filling' found a perfect resonance with an American consumer that wanted a party beer that could be consumed in large quantities with less 'consequences' around the belly. It is no coincidence that all of the 'old style' beers ALL began to slide at the same time Miller Lite made the scene and all of the other light lagers that soon followed.
The writer of this synopsis makes it sound like the demise of old brands was organic, but it was not. They were replaced by a style that better fit the mass consumer. It is no surprise that the big 3 light lagers took that crown and have never shown any signs of giving it up. If the consumer were as fickle as the writer suggests, these brands should have ebbed and flowed on the same tides that he claims for old beers. They haven't.
The only thing to put a dent into the big brands has been the rise of craft brewing that has been eating away at the edges of their market share. But there is a limit to the amount of damage the craft beers can do because they aren't really competing for the same type of drinker. That isn't to say that craft drinking hasn't affected the market because it has, but there will always be a core market for people that want a cheap and easy party beer.
I will say though that there is a bit of truth I think in that, beers like Coors Banquet, Miller High Life, Schlitz, PBR, even Bud heavy, etc. are all considered 'old beers' and only old people drink them, but I think a clever advertising campaign right at this moment might reintroduce younger drinkers to these beers, which in my opinion are much better than their light counterparts. Make them retro-cool again.
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I am convinced *Cobra Kai* introduced a whole new generation to Coors Banquet and helped revive its popularity.
This is exactly what I am talking about in my last paragraph.