Why empires fall

6,006 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by PA24
fc2112
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Empires rise and fall. It is interesting to look at past empires falling and see the similarities to today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire

Quote:

The Roman Empire lost the strengths that had allowed it to exercise effective control over its Western provinces; modern historians posit factors including:

1. The effectiveness and numbers of the army
2. The health and numbers of the Roman population
3. The strength of the economy
4. The competence of the emperors
5. The internal struggles for power
6. The religious changes of the period
7. The efficiency of the civil administration
8. Increasing pressure from invading barbarians outside Roman culture

I posit that we are clearly seeing #2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 happening in America today.

We still have the strongest army in the world, but we're trying like hell to neuter it. The US is still a very strong economy, but our deficit spending is well on the way to crippling us.

Not sure what the fall of America looks like. A loss of freedom in the world, for sure, as the ascendent plower is clearly China. The loss of territorial integrity is often the first steps in the fall of most empires, and we can clearly see that on our southern border. In fact, our federal government is encouraging it.
doubledog
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When "Empires" stop expanding, they generally begin to decline.

I never view the U.S. as an empire, am I wrong?
Slicer97
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AG
"The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a 'warm body' democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as 'Bread and Circuses.'

'Bread and Circuses' is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader; the barbarians enter Rome."

Robert A. Heinlein
AgFormerlyInIrving
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AG
Sorry - not an attempt to derail - but I thought I was in the baseball forum and read as "why umpires fall." Was looking forward to video.
Kozmozag
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The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?
magnumtmp
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AG
doubledog said:

When "Empires" stop expanding, they generally begin to decline.

I never view the U.S. as an empire, am I wrong?


I think you're correct in that the US is not an empire by the common definition. We don't conquer land areas to rule over them. We do absolutely have a huge global influence. We are an economic empire instead of a land mass empire.
TresPuertas
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AG
another tell tale sign that's pretty consistent is at the very end of an empire's life span there is a societal debate about gender. it's a pretty accurate marker of the end of an empire because nobody is discussing real problems in society.
MouthBQ98
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AG
Gradual cultural shifts from absorbing or encompassing too many diverse peoples over time without adequately Romanizibg them into a common polity and super culture. Regional cultures developed from these populations that were only nominally and administratively Roman and when the central administration showed weakness, the larger empire gradually fractured and broke down. There were attempts at semi-autonomy or reorganization but they were ultimately inadequate in the west excepting the occasional dynamic leader.
Tom_Fox
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I cannot believe we were stupid enough to think that we are smarter than the founding fathers and converted the US into a "warm body" democracy.

It is the root cause that ended this nation as we know it.
magnumtmp
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AG
Kozmozag said:

The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?


Kingship/Dictator if Aristotle is right.

Jeeper79
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AgFormerlyInIrving said:

Sorry - not an attempt to derail - but I thought I was in the baseball forum and read as "why umpires fall." Was looking forward to video.
I'd watch that video.
fasthorse05
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Tom_Fox said:

I cannot believe we were stupid enough to think that we are smarter than the founding fathers and converted the US into a "warm body" democracy.

It is the root cause that ended this nation as we know it.
Any Democrat will tell we've solved all of the cultural and poverty problems in the last 50 years by spending a little more than $5 trillion on these problems.

Obviously, that comment is staggering satire, but since the "just spend money out the ass" crowd only wants to spend more money, it should make some folks question how much it helps.
Jeeper79
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magnumtmp said:

Kozmozag said:

The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?


Kingship/Dictator if Aristotle is right.


Roman citizens didn't have semi-automatic rifles. We're not becoming a monarchy unless the right chooses it.
fc2112
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magnumtmp said:

We don't conquer land areas to rule over them.


Jeeper79
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AG
Jeeper79 said:

magnumtmp said:

Kozmozag said:

The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?


Kingship/Dictator if Aristotle is right.


Roman citizens didn't have semi-automatic rifles. We're not becoming a monarchy unless the right chooses it.
I'll amend my previous statement. I don't think think the right is above choosing a monarch if that monarch provided everything they wanted. The past few years have shown that the GOP is very ok with government oversight as long as it's oversight they like.

That's not to say they would, either. Just that it's still somewhere within the vast realm of possibility.

Now libertarians… They're not going down without a fight.
Jeeper79
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AG
I also don't think a true monarchy can last in a nation with a big middle class.
PA24
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If you believe in Christianity then you believe in God's everlasting covenant with Israel.
With that, great empires were created to either punish or reward Israel. Once that role is complete, God is done with them. He leaves them to their on devices or reprobate minds.
Babylonian
Assyrian
Greek
Romans
Ottoman
American?

America's support to Israel is the sole reason Israel is one of the most power nation' on earth. The stage is set.




Jeeper79
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AG
PA24 said:

If you believe in Christianity then you believe in God's everlasting covenant with Israel.
With that, great empires were created to either punish or reward Israel. Once that role is complete, God is done with them. He leaves them to their on devices or reprobate minds.
Babylonian
Assyrian
Greek
Romans
Ottoman
American?

America's support to Israel is the sole reason Israel is one of the most power nation' on earth. The stage is set.





God's everlasting covenant with Israel is an Old Testament construct. Not to dismiss it outright, but one of the pillars of Christianity that distinguishes it from Judaism is that non-Jews are equally deserving of God's Grace and salvation. The distinction between Jews and non-Jews is, at the very least, severely diminished, if not dropped altogether. That includes us.
BlueSmoke
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Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.
Nobody cares. Work Harder
DrEvazanPhD
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Jeeper79 said:

magnumtmp said:

Kozmozag said:

The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?


Kingship/Dictator if Aristotle is right.


Roman citizens didn't have semi-automatic rifles. We're not becoming a monarchy unless the right chooses it.
The Roman Empire didn't really believe it was a monarchy until well after Augustus. The "principate" model had those in power fostering the illusion of the "first citizen" or "first among equals," which for the general public largely went unnoticed. The senate and ruling classes, however, knew who was in charge.
YouBet
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fc2112 said:

Empires rise and fall. It is interesting to look at past empires falling and see the similarities to today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire

Quote:

The Roman Empire lost the strengths that had allowed it to exercise effective control over its Western provinces; modern historians posit factors including:

1. The effectiveness and numbers of the army
2. The health and numbers of the Roman population
3. The strength of the economy
4. The competence of the emperors
5. The internal struggles for power
6. The religious changes of the period
7. The efficiency of the civil administration
8. Increasing pressure from invading barbarians outside Roman culture

I posit that we are clearly seeing #2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 happening in America today.

We still have the strongest army in the world, but we're trying like hell to neuter it. The US is still a very strong economy, but our deficit spending is well on the way to crippling us.

Not sure what the fall of America looks like. A loss of freedom in the world, for sure, as the ascendent plower is clearly China. The loss of territorial integrity is often the first steps in the fall of most empires, and we can clearly see that on our southern border. In fact, our federal government is encouraging it.


Only thing I would question here is chinas ascendency. This doesn't have to be a zero sum game of empires. They are worse off than we are by any objective measure.

The rest of the world is a complete mess. What you are seeing is the entire world slowly collapsing, frankly. Negative birth rates everywhere the intelligent and advanced cultures exist. The lesser cultures who are still breeding aren't going to rise up and take the mantle other than maybe lead some areas to chaos and destruction.

It looks to be a general retreat to regional powers and more isolation.
fc2112
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Yeah, perhaps so on China. But I don't think there is much debate they are soon to be the world's dominate economy. They are already basically buying large swarths of Africa and South America.
Jeeper79
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AG
YouBet said:

fc2112 said:

Empires rise and fall. It is interesting to look at past empires falling and see the similarities to today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire

Quote:

The Roman Empire lost the strengths that had allowed it to exercise effective control over its Western provinces; modern historians posit factors including:

1. The effectiveness and numbers of the army
2. The health and numbers of the Roman population
3. The strength of the economy
4. The competence of the emperors
5. The internal struggles for power
6. The religious changes of the period
7. The efficiency of the civil administration
8. Increasing pressure from invading barbarians outside Roman culture

I posit that we are clearly seeing #2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 happening in America today.

We still have the strongest army in the world, but we're trying like hell to neuter it. The US is still a very strong economy, but our deficit spending is well on the way to crippling us.

Not sure what the fall of America looks like. A loss of freedom in the world, for sure, as the ascendent plower is clearly China. The loss of territorial integrity is often the first steps in the fall of most empires, and we can clearly see that on our southern border. In fact, our federal government is encouraging it.


Only thing I would question here is chinas ascendency. This doesn't have to be a zero sum game of empires. They are worse off than we are by any objective measure.

The rest of the world is a complete mess. What you are seeing is the entire world slowly collapsing, frankly. Negative birth rates everywhere the intelligent and advanced cultures exist. The lesser cultures who are still breeding aren't going to rise up and take the mantle other than maybe lead some areas to chaos and destruction.

It looks to be a general retreat to regional powers and more isolation.
China's ascendency is predicated on their ability to trade with other countries, but they've played dirty and those other countries are taking their toys back. It won't break China, but it could cap them. They're one of the biggest, most influential countries in the world, but we're still #1, and I feel more likely that we'll keep that title than I did 10 years ago.

As for the rest of the world… There's a global recession. These things suck, but they do happen. And we will eventually get out of it. These things are cyclical. The short term is hard, but I'm still optimistic for the long term.
Urban Ag
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AG
fc2112 said:

magnumtmp said:

We don't conquer land areas to rule over them.



Revolution is not conquering.
Texas joined of its own will and peacefully.
Mexico had it coming and we did that territory a huge favor. Same for Puerto Rico.
Much of the country was simply purchased (Mexico, Russia, France, Spain)
Some territory was conquered, I guess, but the natives were constantly conquering and enslaving each other so I see no issue here.

If we were truly a conquering Imperialist nation we'd own Japan, every island from Oahu to Okinawa, half of Korea, half of Germany, Italy, Sicily, much of North Africa, whatever we wanted in France, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Belgium, whatever we wanted in the Caribbean, etc.
Ags4DaWin
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This is even more true when combined with the Pareto Principle.

20% of people create 80% of the wealth. When the unproductive 80% realize they can via taxation and threat of governmental force gain unlimited access to the production of the 20% society degrades.
rocky the dog
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AG
Elections are when people find out what politicians stand for, and politicians find out what people will fall for.
FIDO95
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AG
The genius of the American founding was in the idea that individuals were capable of self-governing. A government of the people, by the people, for the people. That system requires individuals to be guided by a moral code which embraces responsibility and merit. Power was diluted at the top and towards more localized governmental bodies and then all the way to the individual.

The luxury that that system has produced has created a citizenry more interested in rights then responsibility. We have a society/culture that idolizes victimhood and in doing so have generated a generation of individual unable to govern themselves. As such, these individuals generate demands for the government to govern them in the form of free healthcare, free housing, and more recently, free funding.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
LMCane
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Ray Dalio has been posting youtube videos about the coming downfall of the american empire where he demonstrates the last 6 empires and how they rose and fell

we are clearly on the way down and India/China are on the way up
Science Denier
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PA24 said:

If you believe in Christianity then you believe in God's everlasting covenant with Israel.
With that, great empires were created to either punish or reward Israel. Once that role is complete, God is done with them. He leaves them to their on devices or reprobate minds.
Babylonian
Assyrian
Greek
Romans
Ottoman
American?

America's support to Israel is the sole reason Israel is one of the most power nation' on earth. The stage is set.
Jesus put the Jews and Gentiles on equal terms. Everyone is equal if they repent and believe in Jesus. I'm not anywhere close to being an expert and this does give me some confusion.

Does this mean that since most of Israel does NOT accept Jesus as the son of God, they no longer receive God's protection over all others?
LOL OLD
Bellards Boys
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Empires fall because the empire says yes to sin, and no to God. America was a blessed and prosperous Empire when it held the Bible dear.

As one old Preacher said, "It is back to the Bible, or back to the jungle". Today, the jungle stretches from sea to shining sea :>(


America traded The Lord God many moons ago and now the chickens are home to roost.
American Hardwood
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AG
I'm not an expert on the subject, but God made an eternal promise to Israel. Also, Israel has a role to play in the end times according to Revelation. So if they have a role to play, they must still exist to do so.
ElKabong
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I think we have all these covered.


"The five marks of the Roman decaying culture:

Concern with displaying affluence instead of building wealth;

Obsession with sex and perversions of sex;

Art becomes freakish and sensationalistic instead of creative and original;

Widening disparity between very rich and very poor;

Increased demand to live off the state."

Edward Gibbon


UTExan
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Kozmozag said:

The fall is happening. The question is, what do we evolve into?


A largely androgynous society dominated by women. I read one news story indicating only ~30 % of younger adult US males are in a relationship right now (married/SO) compared to 60% of US females, many of whom are opting for same sex relationships. The downside is that we have a large population of single young men without emotional attachment and without intimate partners. That's not healthy and maybe why some societies opt for arranging marriages.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
IndividualFreedom
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Quote:

Robert A. Heinlein
That quote sounds good in all, but democracy is a verb. It is the action of the people. China is a democracy. Russia is a democracy. Raise of hands that want a communistic "Democracy"? OK, hard core enemy can put their hands down.

The term is being used by the enemy of our nation as a misunderstood buzz word to garner the attention of their voters and prospect voters (aka ideological slave state).
UTExan
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American Hardwood said:

I'm not an expert on the subject, but God made an eternal promise to Israel. Also, Israel has a role to play in the end times according to Revelation. So if they have a role to play, they must still exist to do so.


Hosea 5:15 is a bit more explicit where the Lord basically reveals the Second Coming as a rescue operation for Israel in T. D. Ice's words:

Hosea 5:15
New King James Version
15 I will return again to My place
Till they [a]acknowledge their offense.
Then they will seek My face;
In their affliction they will earnestly seek Me."
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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