Ags77 said:
DeSantis will win because the Dems won't have Trump to get the massive turnout he generates for them and the never Trumper group ( of which I'm in ) is NA in the election tally.
This board has CONSISTENTLY under counted those that won't vote trump.
This.ATM9000 said:
Trump can't win. His message at this point seems to be centered around personal grievances. If that's all he's got, he will get crushed.
DeSantis at least has the potential to win.
Tom_Fox said:I'll pose the same question to you then. What is the plan if Biden beats DeSantis straight up? Without Trump running third party.Ags77 said:
DeSantis will win because the Dems won't have Trump to get the massive turnout he generates for them and the never Trumper group ( of which I'm in ) is NA in the election tally.
This board has CONSISTENTLY under counted those that won't vote trump.
While I agree your concerns are noteworthy they apply to both candidates and would be far worse with Trump. I don't know of any conservative who think DeSantis just wins in a cakewalk. Trump has a habit of pissing people off just because he enjoys it. DeSantis is much more measured and precise. The question isn't who can "beat the cheat" it is who has the best chance. BTW, I think the "cheating" is overstated as it is more about how Democrats know how to manipulate every possible law to their advantage and the GOP doesn't. Ballot harvest where you can. Push the envelope because the Dems will. Trump has done a huge disservice to the Party by talking about cheating so much that he has made many feel like their vote doesn't matter and they might as well quit and sulk in the corner. It pisses me off because this thing is very winnable.LegalDrugPusher said:
Will win the Presidency with flying colors?
I love Trump and DeSantis equally. I really don't care which one it is even though I lean more to DeSantis but I will never have any disregard or negative feelings toward Trump.
But with that being said, why do y'all think that DeSantis will just win without a sweat ?
the cheating states are still going to cheat and it's not going matter that DeSantis is more polished than Trump and a little bit more likable it's not going make one effing difference.
The Democrats the deep state have too much at stake to allow a Republican president, but on top of that having at least one chamber of Congress as well. 2/3 of the control is way more than their willing to give up.
If it is DeSantis on election night, November 2024, it will still come down to the shenanigans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan
Too many of y'all are nave to think DeSantis is just going waltz right into the White House because he's not hated as much as Trump so what if he's not it's not going make any difference. by the time November 2024 rolls around DeSantis will be hated just as much as Trump if not more
I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
it's not a good hypothetical. If you look at how DeSantis delivered Florida this past election, with how many democrats crossed the aisle and voted for him, it's a dumb hypothetical.Tom_Fox said:I'll pose the same question to you then. What is the plan if Biden beats DeSantis straight up? Without Trump running third party.Ags77 said:
DeSantis will win because the Dems won't have Trump to get the massive turnout he generates for them and the never Trumper group ( of which I'm in ) is NA in the election tally.
This board has CONSISTENTLY under counted those that won't vote trump.
not unless conservatives take over the voting boxes in Atlanta, Philly, Phoenix, Detroit, and Milwaukee....shiftyandquick said:
I don't think either Trump or desantis will get the nomination. Bookmark it.
Tom_Fox said:I'll pose the same question to you then. What is the plan if Biden beats DeSantis straight up? Without Trump running third party.Ags77 said:
DeSantis will win because the Dems won't have Trump to get the massive turnout he generates for them and the never Trumper group ( of which I'm in ) is NA in the election tally.
This board has CONSISTENTLY under counted those that won't vote trump.
shiftyandquick said:
I don't think either Trump or desantis will get the nomination. Bookmark it.
Tom_Fox said:I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
Bonfire1996 said:
The only way DeSantis loses the general this go round, with Dems running Biden, is if trump goes 3rd party.
Women vote overwhelmingly based on emotions and for the government safety net. They need daddy government to step in if they suddenly find themselves without a man.Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
Democrats don't win elections because of the takers. Democrats win elections because they lay out a clear plan of action, misguided as I may see it, and by scaring people into believing the republicans not only oppose that plan but want to fundamentally take back things the plan previously achieved for Americans.
This is illustrated by the fact that the democrats most important voting bloc is white women. If white women with at least two years of post-HS education and/or who live in homes with an average annual income >75k didn't vote overwhelmingly for democrats they'd never win another national election. They could win national elections consistently if 30% of those who's main source of income is welfare switched their votes, or in 20% of blacks in the right places switched their votes, or if 15% of Hispanics in the right areas switched their votes. All it would take for democrats to never win again is a shift in affluent white women by 5%, almost anywhere in any combination.
Affluent white women like plans and they fear "going backward". That's really the problem in its most basic form. Minorities and the poor just don't turn out that well. Affluent white women have the power because they turn out and perceive themselves having more to lose.
Tom_Fox said:Women vote overwhelmingly based on emotions and for the government safety net. They need daddy government to step in if they suddenly find themselves without a man.Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
Democrats don't win elections because of the takers. Democrats win elections because they lay out a clear plan of action, misguided as I may see it, and by scaring people into believing the republicans not only oppose that plan but want to fundamentally take back things the plan previously achieved for Americans.
This is illustrated by the fact that the democrats most important voting bloc is white women. If white women with at least two years of post-HS education and/or who live in homes with an average annual income >75k didn't vote overwhelmingly for democrats they'd never win another national election. They could win national elections consistently if 30% of those who's main source of income is welfare switched their votes, or in 20% of blacks in the right places switched their votes, or if 15% of Hispanics in the right areas switched their votes. All it would take for democrats to never win again is a shift in affluent white women by 5%, almost anywhere in any combination.
Affluent white women like plans and they fear "going backward". That's really the problem in its most basic form. Minorities and the poor just don't turn out that well. Affluent white women have the power because they turn out and perceive themselves having more to lose.
Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:Women vote overwhelmingly based on emotions and for the government safety net. They need daddy government to step in if they suddenly find themselves without a man.Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
Democrats don't win elections because of the takers. Democrats win elections because they lay out a clear plan of action, misguided as I may see it, and by scaring people into believing the republicans not only oppose that plan but want to fundamentally take back things the plan previously achieved for Americans.
This is illustrated by the fact that the democrats most important voting bloc is white women. If white women with at least two years of post-HS education and/or who live in homes with an average annual income >75k didn't vote overwhelmingly for democrats they'd never win another national election. They could win national elections consistently if 30% of those who's main source of income is welfare switched their votes, or in 20% of blacks in the right places switched their votes, or if 15% of Hispanics in the right areas switched their votes. All it would take for democrats to never win again is a shift in affluent white women by 5%, almost anywhere in any combination.
Affluent white women like plans and they fear "going backward". That's really the problem in its most basic form. Minorities and the poor just don't turn out that well. Affluent white women have the power because they turn out and perceive themselves having more to lose.
But the thing is, white women who are financially secure vote Democrat at a higher rate that middle class and lower white women. White women are MORE likely to vote Democrat the more money their households have and the more education they have, not less.
But yes, women are statistically more likely to be swayed by emotional pitches than men.
Tom_Fox said:Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:Women vote overwhelmingly based on emotions and for the government safety net. They need daddy government to step in if they suddenly find themselves without a man.Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:I agree with most of that. But isn't it disconcerting that as conservatives we need low voter turnout to win and that if every single American voted we would get smoked because the takers now outnumber the makers?Infection_Ag11 said:
Desantis would beat Biden fairly easily in a general election IMO. Biden was a vote AGAINST Donald Trump for a significant percentage of his voters. Very few of those people will flip their vote to Desantis, but A LOT won't turn out to vote for Biden without the specter of Trump.
Meanwhile, the vast, vast majority of 2020 Trump voters were voting against the liberal political agenda in general. The specific candidate isn't all that important. Sure there are Trump acolytes who voted for the cult of personality absent a previous tendency to vote straight Republican but that number is relatively small, especially compared to the normally indifferent Americans who voted for Biden.
This is also ignoring the very real possibility that Desantis himself generates the sort of political hype train that often forms around young, loud, energetic politicians. I could easily see him generating some extra turnout through voter excitement all on his own.
TLDR: Most 2020 Trump voters will vote for Desantis, A LOT of 2020 Biden voters just won't turn out if Trump isn't on the ballot.
Democrats don't win elections because of the takers. Democrats win elections because they lay out a clear plan of action, misguided as I may see it, and by scaring people into believing the republicans not only oppose that plan but want to fundamentally take back things the plan previously achieved for Americans.
This is illustrated by the fact that the democrats most important voting bloc is white women. If white women with at least two years of post-HS education and/or who live in homes with an average annual income >75k didn't vote overwhelmingly for democrats they'd never win another national election. They could win national elections consistently if 30% of those who's main source of income is welfare switched their votes, or in 20% of blacks in the right places switched their votes, or if 15% of Hispanics in the right areas switched their votes. All it would take for democrats to never win again is a shift in affluent white women by 5%, almost anywhere in any combination.
Affluent white women like plans and they fear "going backward". That's really the problem in its most basic form. Minorities and the poor just don't turn out that well. Affluent white women have the power because they turn out and perceive themselves having more to lose.
But the thing is, white women who are financially secure vote Democrat at a higher rate that middle class and lower white women. White women are MORE likely to vote Democrat the more money their households have and the more education they have, not less.
But yes, women are statistically more likely to be swayed by emotional pitches than men.
That is true because they are removed from the financial consequences of their votes.
Jeeper79 said:Bonfire1996 said:
The only way DeSantis loses the general this go round, with Dems running Biden, is if trump goes 3rd party.
What if people vote against DeSantis the same way they voted against trump? Trump didn't lose because of cheating. He lost because over half this country hates him and they showed up to the polls to make it known. It might not matter who the Dems run.
Tom_Fox said:
If the Republican Party is relegated to purely financial disagreements with the liberals, we have already lost.
Yeah F that! Let's start shooting each other and see who comes out on top. That would be my preference.Infection_Ag11 said:Tom_Fox said:
If the Republican Party is relegated to purely financial disagreements with the liberals, we have already lost.
Again it depends on what you value. If you believe a thriving western economy isn't worth having if abortion, gay marriage, "woke" such and such are pervasive then yeah you're going to hold that view.
My point is that that society is still by far the best one in human history, and the alternative is still a march to the left and either economic fragmentation/collapse or a violent likely authoritarian overthrow. History shows that is what will happen. You either end up like Canada, a South/Central American banana republic or some flavor of economically viable authoritarianism. I'll take Canada myself.
There is no scenario where a Desantis can lose to a Biden in which the GOP as currently constructed can continue to meaningfully guide American politics.
That would get my attention.Infection_Ag11 said:
I understand it's cliche to say "republicans should stop talking about abortion and gays", but that really is the model that has worked for the right side of the aisle across the rest of the western world. Now you may say that's not a fight worth winning and that's fine, but in my view the alternative (continuing to do what they've been doing and losing) is far worse.
He's way more clever, and he's not a petulant child. Maybe that's enough. But I'm not sure he's any more likable..Deputy Travis Junior said:
DeSantis is orders of magnitude more likable than Trump and further he doesn't do dumb **** like that.
Strongly disagree on pulling libs - even moderate ones. DeSantis doesn't build bridges. He fires shots. He'll do better than trump. Maybe even enough to win. But it wouldn't be because he converted libs.BlitzBrother said:
Agree with your points , but think difference is DeSantis keeps moderate Conservatives , get majority of Independents and also pulls in a good number of moderate Liberals - Trump losses those .
Tom_Fox said:I'll pose the same question to you then. What is the plan if Biden beats DeSantis straight up? Without Trump running third party.Ags77 said:
DeSantis will win because the Dems won't have Trump to get the massive turnout he generates for them and the never Trumper group ( of which I'm in ) is NA in the election tally.
This board has CONSISTENTLY under counted those that won't vote trump.
