There is a definite bubble out there and something not mentioned in this video is banks are pulling back on making loans that absorb negative values on prior cars. Essentially someone is upside down on their 2 year old car and want to trade it in for another car and have the bank just add the money to the note. They aren't playing anymore because defaults are rising and that isn't going to get better with recessionary pressure and rising interest rates. The folks who live on the edge are going to get hammered.
The question is how that plays out for the responsible folks looking for opportunities. I think there will be some real opportunities for lightly used vehicles in the next couple of years as a lot of those cars get reposessed or just turned in. The issue might be how stable supply chains can remain and there will also be some cars that are at risk. For instance any European made car is bound to get very expensive because of energy prices over there and that's going to cause some havoc. European made in the US or Mexico/Canada will be fine.
I've got a more mixed view on cars than some here as I don't play to either extreme. Four drivers and four cars now (one kid in HS and another in college). Got a 2015 F150 Lariat and a 2013 Nissan Altima fully paid off. Have a 2013 F150 my college son has that I cosigned for a 2 year note for him even though we had the cash to pay it off (he put up half) so he could build credit that we are halfway through. Barring something unforseen that's his vehicle and I'm done once he graduates for him. Don't really consider that a loan as I could pay it off tomorrow and might at any time. The rib has a 2020 Hyundai Pallisade that's the family driver for road trips and keeps her happy and she makes good money herself, we took out a 1.9% 5 year note on it with a good down payment. Will pay it off in the next couple of years and plan to keep it for around 9 total as well. It's good for everyone for her to have a nice vehicle in great mechanical shape that all of us can travel comfortably in.
Side note, It's an outstanding vehicle and anyone that has an old perception on Hyundai or Kia just hasn't looked at them recently. We looked at Mercedes and Lexus and she had had 2 Acuras prior (owned each for 9 years) and the Hyundai blew them away for a good deal less. 2 years in and some ski trips and it's still like new, great vehicle.
The next car I will rotate out will be the Altima in a couple of years. When he goes off to school he wants a truck as he is a mountain biker and he's been saving since forever, plan to do a "loan" similar to my older son to build his credit. Ideally would like a Tacoma but those things keep insane value so it may be tough to swing it. I'll keep watching the market on them and hoping for a dip in the next 18 months to take advantage of but we will see.
I'll keep driving my F150 until the wheels fall off I think though. Love that truck and it does everything I need. I really only drive about 10k miles a year on it now as well and it's long since paid off so the incentive of going out and buying a replacement at $70-80k just isn't there. If I did replace it I would probably buy a used one or maybe even a Classic just for fun since I don't really put the miles on anymore. Saw a '70 F100 with "Three on the Tree" that looked like a blast the other day, good mechanical shape with everything working and clean but not showroom which fits me fine. First vehicle I ever drove was my Gradad's '53 Chevy Pickup with "Three on the Tree" and I always thought it was cool as hell, love looking under the hood and seeing a lot of simplicity and room. Nice thing about a truck like that is if you take care of it it should maintain value.
As for those saying these threads always turn into guys bragging about making money and driving older paid off cars, how is that a bad thing? I personally love thinking about being smart with your money and buying what you need as a "humble brag" is a hell of a lot better than folks caught up in material wealth. I hope if younger folks come on threads like this they think about that. Few things can make your life as miserable than debt and especially debt on something that you don't really need in terms of a car that costs twice what would fulfill your actual needs.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan