The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem

16,687 Views | 288 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by Red Dane
aggielostinETX
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AG
Definitely Not A Cop said:

96AgGrad said:

Manhattan said:

Getting murdered isn't the only way to die either .

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/study-finds-widening-gap-in-death-rates-between-us-areas-that-vote-for-democratic-rather-than-republican-party/

Quote:



Americans living in counties that voted Democratic during presidential elections from 2000 to 2016 experienced larger decreases in death rates than residents of counties that voted for a Republican candidate



So rural areas have less medical access than cities? Got it.


And work.



FIFY
oh no
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AG
So, have we all been convinced it's those evil fascist conservatives with all their god and church-going, job and family responsibility-having, and suburban and rural living, that is causing all the murders in the cities yet? oooh... but the conservative politicians in state houses are holding the cities down! The mayor's hands are tied! All the healthcare and education is for the 'burbs and kept away from the cities!!!! That must be it!! damn red state murderers! Blue states like Vermont are obviously so safe because ...."policies"! No other way to explain it!! ..Plus, there's a murder stat that might make red states look murderous if we pretend it the murderers aren't in the deep blue cities. Must use it!
CSTXAg92
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AG
etxag02 said:

This is a big reality shift away from a common assumption and a popular political narrative that was heavily used in the last election cycle. Unsuccessfully, I might add. Maybe this is why.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
Quote:

Takeaways

  • The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
  • Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
  • Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
  • If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
  • Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Quote:

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it's more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they're only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing dataNew Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.


DatTallArchitect
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Manhattan said:

Tom_Fox said:

Manhattan said:

States have absolute control over cities.


Can those states control the number of blacks living there? If Vermont suddenly became 80% black, it would become the most violent state in the union.


If it had a history of slave ownership, Jim Crow, segregation and institutional racism, maybe. If you dropped a bunch of black people there now it would be fine.
You do realize that the northern states were just as racist as the southern states, if not more so? There were northern states that would hang a black man for the crime of being black and in their state. It was literally illegal for a black person to be in their state and the punishment was death.
2012heisman
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etxag02 said:

This is a big reality shift away from a common assumption and a popular political narrative that was heavily used in the last election cycle. Unsuccessfully, I might add. Maybe this is why.
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
Quote:

Takeaways

  • The murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Donald Trump has exceeded the murder rate in the 25 states that voted for Joe Biden in every year from 2000 to 2020.
  • Over this 21-year span, this Red State murder gap has steadily widened from a low of 9% more per capita red state murders in 2003 and 2004 to 44% more per capita red state murders in 2019, before settling back to 43% in 2020.
  • Altogether, the per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined.
  • If Blue State murder rates were as high as Red State murder rates, Biden-voting states would have suffered over 45,000 more murders between 2000 and 2020.
  • Even when murders in the largest cities in red states are removed, overall murder rates in Trump-voting states were 12% higher than Biden-voting states across this 21-year period and were higher in 18 of the 21 years observed.

Quote:

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it's more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they're only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing dataNew Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state's per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.


27 of the 30 highest murder rates are in Democrat cities in Democrat controlled counties with a Soros prosecutor and Soros judges.

It is the reason that Harris County and Travis County have turned into crime ridden **** holes.

It is the reason Austin has a record murder rate two years in a row after defunding the police by a record amount.

Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick will be fixing the crime problems and death local level Democrats have created in Texas with their soft on crime policies cashless bail and PR bonds.
Dimebag Darrell
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The most violent/depraved/dystopian/apocalyptic cities in this country are under heavy democrat control and have been for generations. Some of them are basically third world warzones. Hell on earth. Great job you guys!

Oh, also, democrats damn near hold a monopoly on murder and violent crime. If you could hypothetically keep dems confined to their houses for just one day, we'd instantly become one of the safest countries in the world...only to revert back again the next day.
annie88
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AG
Holy hell, what an ignorant, incorrect, factually wrong post.
ttu_85
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Central Committee said:

Manhattan said:

11 states haven't adopted Medicaid expansion and 4 out of the top 10 murder states are included in that number.


Almost no correlation. Zero causation.

Big stretch there.
Well, You gotta remember you are debating the one and only creator of the Two Tea Theory of Economics. This was without a doubt the dumbest, most ignorant, post in Texags history.
samurai_science
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-study-debunks-red-state-high-crime-claim-by-hillary-clinton-democrats

Study debunks 'red state murder' claim from Hillary Clinton, Democrats
samurai_science
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-murders-concentrated-in-5-percent-of-counties

US murders concentrated in 5 percent of counties
samurai_science
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https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-red-state-murder-problem-thats-just-a-democratic-driven-myth/

The 'Red State Murder Problem'? That's Just a Democratic-Driven Myth.
samurai_science
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https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2022/10/20/laughable-red-state-murder-problem-claim-debunked-n646114


Laughable 'Red State Murder Problem' Claim Debunked
aggieforester05
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samurai_science said:

https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2022/10/20/laughable-red-state-murder-problem-claim-debunked-n646114


Laughable 'Red State Murder Problem' Claim Debunked
You'd have to be a complete and total moron to ever believe it. There's a Mount Everest sized pile of evidence that irrefutably points to Democrat strongholds being the source of most violent crime in this country. This was a dumb narrative to try to sell, but the DNC propaganda outlets just need to create a headline and their braindead voters and moderates will lap it up like the mindless sheep they are. They could claim the moon is made of cheese and half of the country would believe it.
Pizza
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This is one more example of why OP, and leftist/cm talking points just can't be trusted. Ya'll can't report simple facts, and everything has to be twisted to support your narrative...because nothing straight will support your narrative.

Report shows blue counties have higher murder rate than red, calls out 'flawed' studies promoted by top Dems

"If you look at the analysis on a state-by-state level, it's 34% higher in red states and blue states, according to the most recent data we analyzed, but then when you look at it as a county-by-county level, it is 60% higher in blue counties than red counties."

"Violations of state law are prosecuted largely at the county or city level and, thus, amalgamating data across such units neglects important variation in these different approaches," the study continues.

"Looking at homicide rates by county, states show skewed distributions with many counties having little or no homicides, and a handful of counties with excessively high homicide rates. Thus, state homicide rates can be heavily influenced by a few counties. When those counties have different politics from the rest of the state, it can flip the conclusion about the association between political identifications and homicides."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/report-shows-blue-counties-have-higher-murder-rate-than-red-calls-out-flawed-studies-promoted-by-top-dems

Note: Last year, Dayaratna partnered with fellow Heritage scholars Cully Stimson and Zack Smith and released a study showing that of the 30 American cities with the highest murder rates, 27 have Democratic mayors, and at least 14 Soros-backed prosecutors.
Maroon Dawn
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I'm saving this thread for whenever Manhattan pulls his "show me one thread where I'm defending the Democratic Party and it's policies!"
TXAGBQ76
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As my Statistics GA said "…give me a set of data, tell me what you want the outcome to be, I will give you an answer that supports your premise."
CDUB98
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TXAGBQ76 said:

As my Statistics GA said "…give me a set of data, tell me what you want the outcome to be, I will give you an answer that supports your premise."
Given your class year, your GA may have been my stats prof, cause he said the exact same thing to us.
TXAGBQ76
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Tom Bohannon was his name. He taught bot stat classes i took in summer school
doubledog
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I do not think the OPs cherry picked statistics brings comfort for the family victims in Chicago, Detroit, NYC, DC, LA and most other democratic cities.
annie88
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AG
What absolute cherry picked bunk.
Currently a happy listless vessel and deplorable. #FJB TRUMP 2024.
Logos Stick
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Manhattan said:

Yes, blame the black people and not the fact that segregation "ended" while my parents were in elementary school, and red states still have laws and policies ensuring their residents stay in poverty and make it harder to get out.

Look at the education and healthcare systems in most red states and ask why this is happening.


Lololololololol
Manhattan
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Counties derive their power from the states.
Manhattan
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Maroon Dawn said:

I'm saving this thread for whenever Manhattan pulls his "show me one thread where I'm defending the Democratic Party and it's policies!"


Blue states have a lower murder rates than red states, that's a fact and not even something that has to be defended.

The blue city I live in probably has a lower murder rate than wherever you live.

Democratic city governments are a mess, but pale in comparison of disaster to red state governments.
Central Committee
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AG
Manhattan said:

Maroon Dawn said:

I'm saving this thread for whenever Manhattan pulls his "show me one thread where I'm defending the Democratic Party and it's policies!"


Blue states have a lower murder rates than red states, that's a fact and not even something that has to be defended.

The blue city I live in probably has a lower murder rate than wherever you live.

Democratic city governments are a mess, but pale in comparison of disaster to red state governments.
This is what we call living in an alternate reality. It defies all factual data set not specifically cherry-picked.

Sentence one thoroughly explained per above. Large blue cities in red states push the states into high crime percentages.

Sentence two is undefined, and while possible, unconfirmed.

Sentence three has to be a joke. Most large blue metropolitan areas and states are by far the worst run governments. Chicago. New York. Philly, the state of California. Seattle. Portland. These cities/states were floated by the massive federal government spending during covid, and most are about to come to grips with the reality of massive budget problems. Yes there are one-offs on both sides, but this largely holds true.
Manhattan
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If those cities run into budget problems it will undoubtedly be because they are paying more in federal tax than they are receiving, the opposite of red states.

Quote:


Sentence one thoroughly explained per above. Large blue cities in red states push the states into high crime percentages


then the states should address healthcare, education and poverty.

If NYC was in Texas the murder rate would be over 20/100,000
Central Committee
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AG
NYC has had some great numbers due to Republicans Rudy G. and Bloomberg for a long time. But thanks to Comrade DeBlasio and now Adams, the crime stats are skyrocketing and reverting the days of Koch/Dinkins.

Maybe once NYC slips back into the hellish crime stats of the 70's/80's people will again turn to Republican leadership to once again clean up the city and restore law and order.

Manhattan
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Almost the entire world had a murder drop in the 90s due to crackdowns on leaded paint and gasoline….
UAS Ag
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Manhattan said:

If those cities run into budget problems it will undoubtedly be because they are paying more in federal tax than they are receiving, the opposite of red states.

Quote:


Sentence one thoroughly explained per above. Large blue cities in red states push the states into high crime percentages


then the states should address healthcare, education and poverty.

If NYC was in Texas the murder rate would be over 20/100,000
I love when you compare blue cities to red states...

Completely ignoring that the blue cities IN THOSE red states are the issue - the blue cities receive the vast majority of the federal taxes, while the rest of the red state (which is NOT blue) pays more in taxes while receiving less.

There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Benjamin Disraeli
Manhattan
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So why are the murder rates in Ft. Worth and Tulsa so bad?
UAS Ag
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Manhattan said:

So why are the murder rates in Ft. Worth and Tulsa so bad?
Ah...

The exception proves the rule argument now...

But, even there, you can dig further down into the data and see that it is generally the BLUE AREAS of the red cities that are having the problems, rather than just the entire city itself.

Again...statistics can (and ARE) being used poorly.
akm91
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AG
Something like this?

Anastasia Beaverhaven
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Manhattan said:

So why are the murder rates in Ft. Worth and Tulsa so bad?
Why are D.C. and New Orleans vying for the murder capitol?
akm91
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AG
Manhattan said:

Almost the entire world had a murder drop in the 90s due to crackdowns on leaded paint and gasoline….
akm91
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AG

ord89
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AG
OP was dumb. Thread was winding down and Manhattan shows up and doubles down. Lmao.
 
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