cecil77 said:

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Zobel said:

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i mean... this exact same argument was made about gasoline engines. and gasoline required a whole lot more specialized and dedicated infrastructure than electricity does today.

by this argument we should never make a prediction about the future because all of them are wrong, in the long run. the era of the gasoline automobile is not much past the century mark.

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Not, not at all. I said nothing about gasoline engines and the future. The point is smug "it's the future (and anything else is NOT the future)" denigrations " toward anyone with a differing views are fruitless.

And I repeat, what future? If you mean 20 years, why should I care? If you mean 50 years, why should you care? ("care" as to today's personal transportation choice) The entire "it's the future" argument is useless, and certainly not persuasive - EVEN IF PROVEN CORRECT OVER TIME.

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It will be relatively obvious that the majority of miles driven will be electric in the future by anyone that has a passing interest within 5 years. It will be an accepted eventual reality by basically everyone within 10 years.

It is functionally 2002, on the precipice of the release of the Motorola Razr, and someone is telling you that in the future the vast majority of people's interaction with a computer is going to be on their phone. That would sound absurd in 2002, by 2007 it seemed plausible, by 2012 it was an obvious eventuality.


There are a lot of people that post on this thread that think they can understand where things are going by passive osmosis. We are not yet to that stage of the technology. It will happen within 5 years, because all of the technology necessary will be in place to make it seem plausible.

GAC06 said:

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bobbranco said:

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Y

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So you don't own an EV. HTH

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herp no derp

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Electric Vehicle (EV) Definition

An EV is defined as a vehicle that can be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery and is capable of being charged from an external source. An EV includes both a vehicle that can only be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery (EV) and a vehicle that can be powered by an electric motor that draws electricity from a battery and by an internal combustion engine (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle).

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https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/12660

Teslag said:

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bobbranco said:

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Yet here you are, totally not being obsessed on a thread dedicated to a car you don't even own.

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I will never buy an electric powered vehicle.

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Thread title.
No I don't own a Tesla.
I do own an EV.

You drive a hybrid. Interesting you are clinging to Biden's definitions, how green of you

If you read carefully. They are VT's. But some don't read.

And if thinking critically it predates your guy FJB.

You drive a hybrid. Biden isn't my guy. Try again.

An EV. Sorry. Not sorry.

Fair answer. Thanks. But we can't build enough power plants in ten years for EVs, to predominate vehicles. At least not year round in all locations. Off peak can handle a lot, but it's not enough.

cecil77 said:

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Fair answer. Thanks. But we can't build enough power plants in ten years for EVs, to predominate vehicles. At least not year round in all locations. Off peak can handle a lot, but it's not enough.

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If you are worried about not having enough power for EV growth, you must really have no faith in the American system and lord knows how we will satisfy all of the data centers which will dwarf EV demand.

ETA. It is a moot point because there is no scenario where EVs will be the predominate vehicles in the US in 10 years.

That's timing on public perception. To get to actual majority miles electric you're probably talking about 2040 at the earliest. The amount of energy add necessary is a drop in the bucket compared to the energy add that China is presently doing. It's a matter of will to do it, not capability, and as pointed out the interest in adding production is going to be driven by AI training compute. EV demands are a tag along.

In the next 5 years I'm expecting:

->20,000 V4 Superchargers deployed by Tesla (500 kW charging output). Deployments beginning Q1 next year.
-Vehicles that can take advantage of that charge rate (<15 minute charging, 10-80%). Would not be surprised to see vehicles accepting >300 kW next year.
-Demonstration of driverless vehicles within two years. Tesla launch of self driving ride hailing service next year with driver in seat.
-Licensing of self driving software to other OEMs announced within the next 18 months, to be integrated by 2028 model year.
-Approval in Europe and China for supervised self driving software within 18 months
-More than 1 million autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads by 2030
-More than 10 million autonomous vehicles by 2035.
-~15,000 Tesla Semis by EOY 2026, majority of miles autonomous with human monitoring


Related, but non-vehicle
-Humanoid bot doing functional (not quality) work in Tesla's factory next year, I assume in either Giga Nevada or their Megapack factory in Lathrop before the end of next year.
-Bot doing functional, quality work in Tesla's vehicle factories by 2030. Would be unsurprised if by 2035 they have vehicle manufacturing lines that are basically devoid of human labor.
->200 GWh Megapack annual production by 2030



Genuinely believe that we could be on the precipice of an acceleration that will dwarf the late 1800's increase in productivity. Dwarf the increase in productivity achieved by the computer revolution and internet revolution.

I stand by my opinion that majority of cars sold in the US will be EVs by 2030. That doesn't mean majority on the road but majority by sales.

It is just a better product for 95% of people. I remember people who said they would never give up their blackberry. Once they saw and tried out an iphone, it just was a better product that can do more and do it better.

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I stand by my opinion that majority of cars sold in the US will be EVs by 2030. That doesn't mean majority on the road but majority by sales.

It is just a better product for 95% of people.

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I would feel safe betting against that. There's a significant amount of people that would be hampered by an EV and we will need massive leaps in range/recharge seed before they are ready for a majority. People that actually use trucks for truck things or tow over 100 miles for starters should avoid EV trucks.

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Fair answer. Thanks. But we can't build enough power plants in ten years for EVs, to predominate vehicles. At least not year round in all locations. Off peak can handle a lot, but it's not enough.

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i don't think this is correct, but i did some math.

average american drives 14,000 miles per year.

EV seem to be on the range of 300 W-h per mile, so that is 4,200 kWh per person per year.

there are around 233 million licensed drivers. so that's 978.6 billion kWh if its all electric. seems like somewhere between 7-9% of cars are EVs though, and we're talking about a delta. so let's reduce that number by 5% just to be conservative - call it 930 billion kWh.

the US grid made 4,178 billion kWh in 2023. so this is an increase of 22%.

using the last reported EIA numbers (here) for natural gas only the total blended capacity factor on average in 2024 was something like 45% on a capacity of 500,000 MW. let's say that 80% total fleet capacity is the achievable max. going from 45% to 80% capacity adds an additional 1600 billion kWh, over 1.5 times the amount required to power every mile driven in the US. from current installed nat gas generation alone.

is 80% total utilization realistic? probably not. but the capacity exists on paper, by far.

GAC06 said:

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You drive a hybrid. Biden isn't my guy. Try again.

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There battery EVs like the Teslas. Then there hybrid EVs like the Prius. When someone says 8-10% of all new car sales are EVs, they are including the hybrids.

It's kind of amazing that you can post on this thread so much and be so consistently wrong.

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales#:~:text=Propelled%20by%20big%20manufacturer%20incentives,new%20car%20sales%20in%20America.

Zobel said:

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Quote:

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Fair answer. Thanks. But we can't build enough power plants in ten years for EVs, to predominate vehicles. At least not year round in all locations. Off peak can handle a lot, but it's not enough.

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i don't think this is correct, but i did some math.

average american drives 14,000 miles per year.

EV seem to be on the range of 300 W-h per mile, so that is 4,200 kWh per person per year.

there are around 233 million licensed drivers. so that's 978.6 billion kWh if its all electric. seems like somewhere between 7-9% of cars are EVs though, and we're talking about a delta. so let's reduce that number by 5% just to be conservative - call it 930 billion kWh.

the US grid made 4,178 billion kWh in 2023. so this is an increase of 22%.

using the last reported EIA numbers (here) for natural gas only the total blended capacity factor on average in 2024 was something like 45% on a capacity of 500,000 MW. let's say that 80% total fleet capacity is the achievable max. going from 45% to 80% capacity adds an additional 1600 billion kWh, over 1.5 times the amount required to power every mile driven in the US. from current installed nat gas generation alone.

is 80% total utilization realistic? probably not. but the capacity exists on paper, by far.

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How about the increased usage from data centers and population growth over the same time period?
Also, would need to know what % of capacity is nearing end of life and will need replacement?
Also, to achieve 80% capacity would require very efficient load management and regulation of when EVs could charge.

GAC06 said:

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It's kind of amazing that you can post on this thread so much and be so consistently wrong.

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales#:~:text=Propelled%20by%20big%20manufacturer%20incentives,new%20car%20sales%20in%20America.

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People say that all the time on here. My statement stands.

yeah, man. if you increase demand you need more capacity. are you making similar arguments that we can't build enough power plants in 10 years to meet the current AI demands, so we shouldn't do AI? because it's at least as true - probably more.

the bit about load management is important, but is actually a huge benefit of EVs in that you can time the charging load, which is the only real way to increase capacity factor (use during off-peak). no need to do it by regulation - do it by time-based pricing. market problems need market solutions.

building out refineries, pipelines, and gas station infrastructure was a bigger challenge than generation and charging infrastructure for EVs.

techno-ag said:

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GAC06 said:

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It's kind of amazing that you can post on this thread so much and be so consistently wrong.

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales#:~:text=Propelled%20by%20big%20manufacturer%20incentives,new%20car%20sales%20in%20America.

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People say that all the time on here. My statement stands.

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Your statement stands 100% dead ass wrong.

techno-ag said:

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GAC06 said:

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It's kind of amazing that you can post on this thread so much and be so consistently wrong.

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales#:~:text=Propelled%20by%20big%20manufacturer%20incentives,new%20car%20sales%20in%20America.

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People say that all the time on here. My statement stands.

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It's not your statement. It's bobbranco's statement that he was arguing in the last couple of pages. You adopt acceptable commentary from others, so that you can be in group, and you pound it into the ground. What you don't recognize is that the reason he was arguing that hybrid is an EV was to troll people, not talk about actual data reporting.

9 times out of 10 when an article discusses "EV" (abbreviated) market share, or mentions abbreviated "EV" or says the words "electric vehicle", it is talking about BEV vehicles. The 1 time out of 10 you see EVs and hybrids combined into a singular percentage labeled "EV" (abbreviation for electrified vehicle, rather than electric) is when the article is discussing the Chinese vehicle market, because that's how the Chinese talk about vehicles, because they want to maximize the perception they are further reducing emissions. They also call them NEVs. If you want to adopt the language of the Chinese, feel free, but just recognize that's what you're doing. One of the first things the communists do is get you to adopt their language, and y'all are both on the path to being blue haired genderless goo in short order.


In the U.S. the EV market share is 8.9% as of Q3 2024 (will be higher in Q4).
In the U.S. the hybrid market share (Plug-in + hybrid) for Q2 2024 was 21.9%, Q3 numbers TBD (not looking hard for them, because it's not the central point.)

BEVs are likely going to be >9% of the market by year end, because Tesla is on track to have a record quarter.

https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

I figured out when I might buy one. I think when I'm too old to travel on road trips. I think plugging in a car might be easier than getting gas at that point too. I also think the self driving aspects will be better by then (10 -15 years).

Self driving will be "holy **** I don't want a car without it" good by next summer.



Update for the people worried about battery health.

Odometer fraud is shooting up:

According to the latest data from CARFAX — 2.14 million cars may have had odometer rollbacks in 2024 — up 82,000 from last year and 18% since 2021.

The reasons?

Technology has made rolling back an odometer easier than ever — and is often done to…

— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) December 13, 2024

hph6203 said:

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Self driving will be "holy **** I don't want a car without it" good by next summer.



Update for the people worried about battery health.

Odometer fraud is shooting up:

According to the latest data from CARFAX — 2.14 million cars may have had odometer rollbacks in 2024 — up 82,000 from last year and 18% since 2021.

The reasons?

Technology has made rolling back an odometer easier than ever — and is often done to…

— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) December 13, 2024

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That's a little harder to get away with now that dealers and service providers record the mileage each time a car's in the shop.

I hope you aren't expecting him to admit he is wrong on his stats.

https://electrek.co/2024/12/10/after-buying-an-ev-less-than-1-drivers-go-back-gas-cars/

EV sales will be over 50% in 2030. Wait til people use FSD

Devastating

LA to San Diego, 3 hour 18 minute drive with no driver input.



V4 Posts on V3 cabinet can charge at up to 325 kW. Tesla is retrofitting V4 posts at V3 locations. Would permit 10-80% in potentially <15 minutes on future vehicles. Announcement of V4 also suggested Tesla intends to accelerate the rate at which they're installing Superchargers.

@cybertruck can now charge up to 325kW on select V4 Supercharger posts. Rollout in progress.

— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) December 14, 2024

Medaggie said:

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https://electrek.co/2024/12/10/after-buying-an-ev-less-than-1-drivers-go-back-gas-cars/

EV sales will be over 50% in 2030. Wait til people use FSD

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Are you including hybrids in that 50%?

My family has 2 EVs and will have a 3rd in about 2 months getting rid of our last ICE car. I vote R and voted for DJT. I don't buy it because of some environment angle. I don't get any subsidies. I do not have it for any virtual signaling. I don't have any corny license plate.

Teslas are just a much better product than any ICE under 100K.

When I got my first Tesla, it was the best car I have ever driven but I still felt an ICE was always going to be in our garage. But with the faster charging and Superchargers everywhere I need to go, an ICE is not necessary. I spend about 1-2 hrs a year supercharging which is a heck less than pumping gas at 3x the price of chome charging.

I dare to say that 95% Americans would rarely pump gas if their tank was filled every morning that they wake up.

EVs primarily Teslas will be 50% of new sales by 2030. Wait until the Chinese come into the market with their 25K car that would smoke a BMW.

I feel for those poor saps who buy into the relentless hype about EVs and then get stuck this winter. North of the Mason-Dixon Line can be particularly rough I bet.

https://qz.com/evs-electric-cars-winter-charging-tesla-bmw-nissan-1851716562

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The lithium-ion batteries that power EVs struggle in cold weather and can often see a significant reduction in their range.

This proved disastrous in January during a Chicago cold snap, when Tesla (TSLA) drivers were lining up for hours to charge their cars.
…
The Vaziri Law Group did a study to see which EVs are most unreliable in the cold, looking at the different electric car's battery range reduction, average accidents during winter over three years, average charging time, and battery capacity.

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techno-ag said:

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I feel for those poor saps who buy into the relentless hype about EVs and then get stuck this winter. North of the Mason-Dixon Line can be particularly rough I bet.

https://qz.com/evs-electric-cars-winter-charging-tesla-bmw-nissan-1851716562

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The lithium-ion batteries that power EVs struggle in cold weather and can often see a significant reduction in their range.

This proved disastrous in January during a Chicago cold snap, when Tesla (TSLA) drivers were lining up for hours to charge their cars.
…
The Vaziri Law Group did a study to see which EVs are most unreliable in the cold, looking at the different electric car's battery range reduction, average accidents during winter over three years, average charging time, and battery capacity.

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Thanks God that Norway is south of the Mason Dixon line since a large majority of their new car sales are EVs. It would cripple their country if it ever gets cold or snowy there.

https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest#:~:text=Norway%20is%20the%20world%20leader,to%2080%25%20in%2012%20years.

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EVs primarily Teslas will be 50% of new sales by 2030.

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Again, are you including hybrids in this 50%?

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Wait until the Chinese come into the market with their 25K car

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Trump is president until 2029 and there is zero chance he allows the Chinese to flood the auto market with cheap EV'. It's directly opposed to his plan for American business and trade.

Kansas Kid said:

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techno-ag said:

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I feel for those poor saps who buy into the relentless hype about EVs and then get stuck this winter. North of the Mason-Dixon Line can be particularly rough I bet.

https://qz.com/evs-electric-cars-winter-charging-tesla-bmw-nissan-1851716562

Quote:

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The lithium-ion batteries that power EVs struggle in cold weather and can often see a significant reduction in their range.

This proved disastrous in January during a Chicago cold snap, when Tesla (TSLA) drivers were lining up for hours to charge their cars.
…
The Vaziri Law Group did a study to see which EVs are most unreliable in the cold, looking at the different electric car's battery range reduction, average accidents during winter over three years, average charging time, and battery capacity.

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Thanks God that Norway is south of the Mason Dixon line since a large majority of their new car sales are EVs. It would cripple their country if it ever gets cold or snowy there.

https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest#:~:text=Norway%20is%20the%20world%20leader,to%2080%25%20in%2012%20years.

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Their infrastructure is likely different than Chicago's. Also people don't drive as much over there. They're big into trains and such in Europe. Finally, I bet snowplows and emergency vehicles remain internal combustion.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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EVs primarily Teslas will be 50% of new sales by 2030.

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Again, are you including hybrids in this 50%?

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Wait until the Chinese come into the market with their 25K car

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Trump is president until 2029 and there is zero chance he allows the Chinese to flood the auto market with cheap EV'. It's directly opposed to his plan for American business and trade.

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Good points.

I'm guessing the main issue in Chicago was people owning EV's without the ability to charge at home. Charging and preconditioning at home makes cold weather pretty much a non issue. It's dumb to own an EV without being able to charge at home, for now.