bobbranco said:

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Yes, the technology increases cost not only for the conduit but also for the vehicle.

I am no arguing any real position other than this autonomous vehicle dream will remain a dream for a while and will be technologically difficult and expensive.

A closed system is ideal for autonomous vehicles. Trains operating in closed system and within systems that only have autonomous trains are the safest. Safety is the goal. Breakdowns, failures, nature such as animals and weather with the resulting accidents will continue within this closed system. This idea that cars can share the road with pedestrians, other non-autonomous vehicles, animals, weather, wind, grandma drivers, idiots, etc is a dream.

The technology is great and unfortunately is deceptive with many characters as honest as Elizabeth Holmes.

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ran over a woman and dragged her 40 feet under the car

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After the news broke that they had hit the woman and lied about it and had their driverless operation pulled from the market it was reported that they were currently operating with two remote operators per vehicle

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And contrary to your contention transportation experts state that the freeway operation of autonomous vehicles will be more difficult and indeed is more complex because of increased speeds. Even with the assistance of LOL remote operators.

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If you would like to know more about the current state of autonomous cars I'd be more than happy to answer any questions you might have.

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I've been reading for years about the technology revolution taking over and changing the world. Technology advances are great but get accustomed to the let downs I've seen. All of this hype is cool science fiction. Bladerunner was a great movie by the way. That setting was 5 years ago.

And I remember all of the $30,000 millionaires puffing out their chests bragging about putting deposits on Teslas and assembling their small fleet of self-driving Ubers. How's that working out for them? LOL.

And thanks, I don't need to read any more fan boy Popular Mechanics from you. I was burnt out on that crap years ago.

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Well said. So much hype on here really has to be looked at through a sober lens.

We are not a gasoline free society and we're not close. Internal combustion engines aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

We're nowhere near full autonomous driving everywhere.

What's amazing is the vitriol true believers express when someone points out these simple facts.

Very clear you don't actually follow this topic and are just relying on the "hasn't happened, won't happen" default mode that many people have.

It's not the lack of belief in the technology, it's the lack of depth of the commentary and the associated arrogance that comes with that lack of depth and understanding. It's not constructive/lacks utility.


Kind of like his comment that it seems deceptive that an autonomous vehicle has a remote operator. If it didn't need a remote operator to resolve fail states it wouldn't be a debate about whether or not autonomous vehicles are going to happen soon, because they would already be here.

hph6203 said:

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It's not the lack of belief in the technology, it's the lack of depth of the commentary and the associated arrogance that comes with that lack of depth. It's not constructive/lacks utility.

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Well said. You can't just say, "It's coming! Just wait! It's going to be great."

Indeed.

Yeah, that 1,000 word post explaining the history of Cruise's issues and the current state of the market is just saying "It's coming, it's gonna be great." His initial entrance into the topic was "What about trains?" and then "You don't understand trains, you must be dumb, I don't have time to explain." He has since engaged on a deeper level, but in doing so is showing he doesn't actually follow the topic.

Kind of like his criticism that it's deceptive to have a remote operator on autonomous vehicles, without the self reflection to understand that if they didn't have a remote operator his counter statement that they won't get here would be refuted by the fact that they are, in fact, here.

The reason I have confidence in the technology progressing faster than people expect? Because 24 months ago Tesla decided to begin development on a new build of their software that removed the manual directives to the car when it experiences an event, and shifted to recording and analyzing human driver input in tandem with their visual perception system and married the analyzed controls with the perception, rather than capturing the perception and manually describing the controls necessary to navigate the situation.

After another ~6 months that system had exceeded the capabilities of the manually coded systems that Tesla had been developing for 10 years prior, 4 months after that it was released to the public in wide release. Today it drives three times farther between interventions, and their AI team lead says that by the end of this month they will release a build that goes 3x further still and will add the ability for the car to reverse increasing the number of scenarios it can navigate without intervention.

If accurate that's a 9x improvement in capabilities from a comparative baseline work that took 10 years to develop. Even considering that rate of improvement, Tesla has not as of yet deployed their massive compute cluster that will significantly increase their training capabilities. They have significantly reduced the time to iterate by dumping 10 years of work for a 2 year old system.

Yep. Dreamers gonna dream.

hph6203 said:

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a remote operator

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Nice. Human cheat codes. That's the ticket.

Lawsuit was thrown out by the judge. Try again.

Always divorced from reality.

bobbranco said:

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1. I am curious if you have been in a Tesla or other automakers latest driver assist systems?

2. That said, I also think getting the last 1-2% of driving a car to full autonomy is going to be a real challenge and it must be mastered to remove the driver/steering wheel.

3. The vehicle sees 360, doesn't get distracted by a nagging passenger, phone, etc but can be taken over quickly if the situation requires it. It also can react quicker than I or any human can to things like a car stopping suddenly in front of you.

4. We kill 43k per year in this country in vehicle accidents and almost all are driver error.

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1. I have considered renting a Tesla for a week and trying one. I've been in plenty of Uber and Lyft Teslas but never one that was operated in autonomous mode. And with that I've had the opportunity to quiz the drivers about there experience with FSD. Never had a driver have glowing schoolgirl like stories about their FSD.

2. The fact that the experimental taxis continue to have monitoring by humans (I may be mistaken) is dishonest and not autonomous.

3. Yep. I hate my 'adaptive cruise control'. It works great if jackasses don't cut in front of you or something enters the highway.

4. Agreed autonomous vehicles will reduce accidents. It's not happening anytime soon.

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You get no argument from me that we don't have autonomous cars at this point and as I said, I think it is 10-20 years away but I wouldn't be surprised if it was quicker because the rate of improvement in the area is impressive. I just think that last 1-2% that has to be solved will take a lot more time than the optimists think.

The new version of the Tesla FSD does pretty good on 3 now. It either slows down or, if possible, changes lanes.

If you rent the Tesla, I think it will give you an idea of what it is like but I don't think you will be disappointed because the charging experience will likely not be good without a home charge solution and FSD takes a little time to learn.

As for the improved accident rates, I am contending that even with the current driver assists in the market, they save a lot of lives especially when used properly and not like some idiots do.

If you have a million cars on the road, that are highly competent, but not perfect, and the result is you need 1,000 remote operators diagnosing and correcting instances where the car can't determine the next action necessary, and the service is profitable to the provider, is that an improvement in the cost to operate vehicles, or is it the same? If it results in a halving of the total number of crashes on the road, is that an improvement or is that the same?

Humans are not infallible drivers, they make mistakes as well, the goal is to create a system in tandem with humans that reduces the rate of errors and the significance of those errors. You have a belief that the standard is "This car will never have a problem, will never cause an accident, it will perform absolutely perfectly at all times." Which is not the standard or even the goal. Errors will happen.


You say I am "divorced from reality" and so far my statements on the topic are that it is extremely hard, the rate of progress is accelerating, and that if the metric of completion is "never" or "decades, but only if the government dictates an environment that permits it" and my counter argument is "It will happen faster than you think it will." You have absolutely no idea what my expectations are other than they are more optimistic than what you have.

No Spin Ag said:

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Premium said:

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In

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Although that's not my cup of tea, I always have respect for someone who takes pride in what they have.

Also, nice house. Bonus points for the basketball hoop.

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Have you ever driven an 845 hp, 7000 lb, electric vehicle that goes 0-60 in 2.6 seconds? Might change your mind!

that's why I own a rivian truck now. launching from 0-60 in 3 seconds changed my mind about owning one.. and now, having not been to a gas station in six months, I'm still really enjoying the hell out of it.

Have fun here's an electric vehicle that may fulfill your fantasies.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tesla-crash-france-fire-4-deaths-investigation/

T&P.

NEWS: Anthony Levandowski, who co-founded Google's Waymo, says @Tesla has a huge advantage in data in the self-driving race.

"I'd rather be in Tesla's shoes than in Waymo's shoes; Tesla already has cars on the road, some of which use semi-autonomous features for tasks such as… pic.twitter.com/4uaOoyjqw4

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 15, 2024

6 lane highway, 45 mph cross traffic speed limit. No mandatory stops either direction for quite a ways, so you know it's likely they're going faster than that.

Better than I'd expect at this point, so I know it's probably better than most of you'd expect. Either that or my optimism is lower than yours!

FSD for Cybertruck is a game changer. Steer by wire is also a game changer.

This thing is fail right out of the gate. "Camping out" mid-median on an unprotected left turn is a total no-go from a safety perspective.

I can now put a "Kitt" from "Knight Rider" costume on my Rivian for Halloween, which is pretty cool.

Would never ride in a car with you if you think the only way to approach that problem is to zoom across 3 lanes of traffic into the flow of traffic on the other side. Attempting to make that maneuver regularly at that intersection is way more dangerous for you as a human driver and for a software system.

The actual safe thing to do in this scenario is to avoid that intersection entirely and not attempt to do either maneuver, but this is a test of the edges of it's capabilities.

hph6203 said:

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Would never ride in a car with you if you think the only way to approach that problem is to zoom across 3 lanes of traffic into the flow of traffic on the other side. Attempting to make that maneuver regularly at that intersection is way more dangerous for you as a human driver and for a software system.

The actual safe thing to do in this scenario is to avoid that intersection entirely and not attempt to do either maneuver, but this is a test of the edges of it's capabilities.

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Evidently you don't read TexAg's Automobile Forum... some Aggie dude switching 4 lanes....

Where did I say zoom across? If it's never gonna open safely both ways for a safe left, make a right turn and then find another safer option to head back the other way.

Not camping out is drivers ed 101.

But cool, don't worry about an invite to ride with me.

Fair enough.

If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

techno-ag said:

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https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tesla-crash-france-fire-4-deaths-investigation/

T&P.

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https://www.kwch.com/2024/09/14/3-dead-3-hurt-after-fiery-crash-near-k-96-13th/





https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2024/10/18/driver-killed-after-fiery-crash-into-tree-near-hobby-airport/

T&P

Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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It took me a while to get used to my Corvette's variable input steering tied to the speed of the car. Once I did, I loved it but I know some that still don't like it. This is why we need choice in the marketplace because there are virtually no universally loved vehicle features.

Steering is one of those things that is subjective. It largely depends on the vehicle, application, and driver's preferences. A full manual rack is going to give you the best feeling in say a lotus elise, but full electric variable steering is going to be preferential in a Rolls Royce Ghost.

What might be great in a daily driver might suck in your weekend sports car. I've definitely grown to appreciate the lane centering system in my wife's Highlander and can certainly see the appeal of FSD for a commuter. Doesn't mean I'd want every vehicle I own to drive itself.

ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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I don't know, was loving my wife's BMW XM but after driving the Cybertruck for 3 days that feels like ancient technology. SBW is also different than electric steering, there is nothing out that is like it.

ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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The original design of the F-16 sidestick was completely rigid. The stick uses strain gauges to measure the force applied, so no movement is necessary to do this.

However, pilots did NOT like that because they got zero feedback about how the sidestick was moving.

So, they added a small bit of movement for the sidestick even though it has no input towards the control laws. They still use the force applied as the input.

tl;dr
People like feedback.

Ag with kids said:

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ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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The original design of the F-16 sidestick was completely rigid. The stick uses strain gauges to measure the force applied, so no movement is necessary to do this.

However, pilots did NOT like that because they got zero feedback about how the sidestick was moving.

So, they added a small bit of movement for the sidestick even though it has no input towards the control laws. They still use the force applied as the input.

tl;dr
People like feedback.

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There is equivalent feedback. Power Steering is to Manual Steering as SBW is to Power Steering. Plenty of feedback but so much better in all aspects.

Premium said:

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Ag with kids said:

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ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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The original design of the F-16 sidestick was completely rigid. The stick uses strain gauges to measure the force applied, so no movement is necessary to do this.

However, pilots did NOT like that because they got zero feedback about how the sidestick was moving.

So, they added a small bit of movement for the sidestick even though it has no input towards the control laws. They still use the force applied as the input.

tl;dr
People like feedback.

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There is equivalent feedback. Power Steering is to Manual Steering as SBW is to Power Steering. Plenty of feedback but so much better in all aspects.

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A friend of mine swears by his manual steering and how much better it is. He isn't wrong just like someone that says the like brunettes over blondes. To each his own just like if you prefer ICE vs EV or vice versa.

Kansas Kid said:

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Premium said:

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Ag with kids said:

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ntxVol said:

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Premium said:

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If you use steer by wire for 2-3 days and go back to your regular vehicle you'll not like what you have. It's huge, like the difference between power steering and manual steering it's a huge leap in engineering.

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I'm not convinced this is the case. Obviously, feedback differs between the two, maybe some prefer the feeling of being connected with the vehicle?

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The original design of the F-16 sidestick was completely rigid. The stick uses strain gauges to measure the force applied, so no movement is necessary to do this.

However, pilots did NOT like that because they got zero feedback about how the sidestick was moving.

So, they added a small bit of movement for the sidestick even though it has no input towards the control laws. They still use the force applied as the input.

tl;dr
People like feedback.

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There is equivalent feedback. Power Steering is to Manual Steering as SBW is to Power Steering. Plenty of feedback but so much better in all aspects.

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A friend of mine swears by his manual steering and how much better it is. He isn't wrong just like someone that says the like brunettes over blondes. To each his own just like if you prefer ICE vs EV or vice versa.

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Power steering is safer than manual steering, I think you'll find the same in comparing power to SBW.

I'm not questioning which is safer but I wouldn't ban people driving manual steering if they prefer. There are a lot of things we allow car owners to choose that aren't the safest option. I don't want a nanny state making all the decisions on my behalf.