nortex97 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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GAC06 said:

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But still up year over year, which means growth.

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OK. Sales are falling when using recent data. Sales growth is falling when using last years data.

This comes back to the thread about Tesla owners living in an echo chamber, of course you focus on the positive while ignoring whats actually going on.

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It's just silliness to debate. The truth is the layoffs/product scale backs etc. reflect that this niche product will wind up topping off even with the mandates and subsidies somewhere around 10 or 20 percent of the market. Heck, sedans sell a lot and Ford/GM etc. basically gave up on them similarly as 'just not worth it' any longer due to the relative decline in market share. If China does ship over more of their cheap EV's maybe it will get to 30 percent, I dunno. Most people who look into these obviously don't like/decide to spend their money on them.

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Good WaPo article on this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/09/ev-democrat-problem/

Quote:

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While the number of EV owners has risen in the past year, the share of Americans saying they would not even consider buying an EV jumped, from 41 percent in 2023 to 48 percent today, according to a Gallup report released Monday. That is, about half of Americans have written off ever owning an EV. (A separate YouGov poll, conducted in 2024 only, found a similar result.)
…
To be clear, among political groups, Republicans are the least interested in buying EVs this year, but they were about equally uninterested last year. In fact, the shares of Republicans saying they already own an EV or would consider buying one rose a few percentage points.

Democrats also report slightly higher ownership rates of EVs than they did last year - but among those who don't yet own one, the percent saying they would never purchase an EV rose 10 points. Other groups with relatively large declines were political independents and college-educated consumers, as well as lower earners (who infrequently buy brand-new cars anyway).

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nortex97 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Well I imagine very few people will buy a $95,000 9,000lb truck. Almost 60% are considering buying an EV, and around 25% are "strongly" considering it. Those are very strong numbers, and it blows up the nonsense spouted here about EV's being rejected.

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When fewer are considering than the year before, and only 7 percent of new vehicle registrations are BEV's, and the leading EV manufacturers are laying off/scaling back product plans…tap dancing about 60% 'thinking about" them really is kind of absurd, imho.

Heck, I'd briefly consider it if I were buying a new car next month, but then dismiss it out of hand for the many reasons I've listed here. But let's face it, eventually the direct-from-CCP EV's will show up (and even Elon has recanted and said he opposes tariffs), and wipe out the domestic/UAW competition. That's been the plan all along.

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China has been able to dump all sorts of sub par crap into the US and people buy it because of price.

However, the automobile is HIGHLY regulated for all sorts of stuff - safety being very high on the list. Can the CCP make their cheap ass EVs AND be able to comply with US safety (and other) regulations?

Dumping sub par **** won't get past the regulators. And while the American public will accept a $12 socket set that needs to be replaced in 2 years, they've become accustomed to great quality in their automobiles (all jokes aside, the vehicles sold in the US today are fantastic compared to 40 years ago). I doubt ****ty quality in a NEW car will sell even the lolpoors. They'll just buy another used beater.

techno-ag said:

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Yup. Sales are down. Growth is down.

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Growth is lower, but still positive.

Driven by your misunderstanding of how substantially different technologies are difficult to adopt by incumbent companies for a variety of reasons and you are looking to them to derive your opinions on the potential success/failure of EVs, when they are the most likely companies to fail in the event that EVs are successful. The fact that they're failing at EVs is not indicative of the failure of EVs.


The questions you should be asking are do the new entrants have a sustainable business, are EVs improving over time, do they have a pathway to competence relative to ICE that will result in EVs being a desirable option for the majority of people. The answers to those questions are yes, yes and yes. Which is why all of you that don't think EVs will ultimately be the dominant vehicle type on the road are not understanding the questions. The overarching question is not what does the last year or quarter look like, it's what has the last decade looked like and what happens if those improvements continue on trend. It is a question about the next 20 years not the next 20 months.

A compounding effect of the EV growth is that at some point over the next 20 years a company is going to solve autonomous driving, and EVs are far more well suited to that than ICE due to lower maintenance and fuel costs.

We've seen this before. They hit more pedestrians than regular cars:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EVs-Twice-As-Likely-To-Hit-Pedestrians-As-Gasoline-Vehicles.html

Ag with kids said:

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techno-ag said:

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Yup. Sales are down. Growth is down.

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Growth is lower, but still positive.

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No one claimed growth was negative. Only sales are negative when measured against the recent data.

From you article

Quote:

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The researchers have conceded that current crash statistics aren't yet robust enough to reach scientific conclusions

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Teslag said:

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From you article

Quote:

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The researchers have conceded that current crash statistics aren't yet robust enough to reach scientific conclusions

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This is one where common sense says it is more likely to have them with EVs because many/most of these accidents are from pedestrians not paying attention (ie posting on Texags with their phone) and the quietness of the EV isn't noticed. I hate the noise makers when driving at low speeds being mandated, but I think they are needed to greatly reduce the risk and liability for the drivers and car makers.

Teslag said:

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From you article

Quote:

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The researchers have conceded that current crash statistics aren't yet robust enough to reach scientific conclusions

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It's statistics, not scientific.

https://open-ev-charts.org/

Millions of gallons of water to…contain a weeks old battery storage fire.

San Diego Firefighters have flown in experts to the Otay Mesa Battery Storage site to study the fire because they don't know how to extinguish it. The 🔥 has already consumed 5 million gallons of water, and firefighters estimate it will take an additional 7-10 days to control,… pic.twitter.com/sVi71XW1Vy

— Amy Reichert (@amyforsandiego) May 23, 2024

Oh California…

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Where you run into problems going forward is that oleaginous California Governor Gavin Newsom's insane renewable energy policies have not only precipitously forced his state into near third-world energy status but are actively endangering his citizens. To meet CA's seemingly immutable NetZero goals and effect this marvelous transition, myriad copies of this very storage facility are being planned, with some permitted already, and a fair amount of them being dumped in the middle of residential areas.

Because "green transition."

Residents of Poway and Escondido have been fighting against a planned "Seguro Battery Storage Facility" for a good while now, and the Otay blaze has just added fuel to their arguments.

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Keep in mind, one of the arguments I've read is that EV batteries will be recycled once depleted of 20 or so percent of their capacity into energy storage applications. They want to put things like this right next to residential areas. Insane.

Call me when an entire town has been abandoned and the fire is still going after 50 years. I assume you also are opposed to coal mining since you seem to hate any development that involves fires that can be hard to put out.

https://www.history.com/news/mine-fire-burning-more-50-years-ghost-town

Colorado has 38 of these.
https://coloradosun.com/2023/08/16/colorado-coal-fire-pit-marshall-fire/

There are many more of these coal seem fires in the US and around the world.

Kansas Kid said:

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Call me when an entire town has been abandoned and the fire is still going after 50 years. I assume you also are opposed to coal mining since you seem to hate any development that involves fires that can be hard to put out.

https://www.history.com/news/mine-fire-burning-more-50-years-ghost-town

Colorado has 38 of these.
https://coloradosun.com/2023/08/16/colorado-coal-fire-pit-marshall-fire/

There are many more of these coal seem fires in the US and around the world.

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Wowzers that is some serious whataboutism. Good thing coal is not part of the New Green Deal.

I have a natural gas line that runs to my house. Is that common and is it flammable? I'll hang up and listen.

Exactly. How many LNG fires have taken 5 million+ gallons of water to extinguish?

Is volume of water the primary metric for measuring the significance of fire? Never heard of that. Residence of Merrimack Valley and San Bruno probably don't care about how much water was used since they are dead.

MaxPower said:

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Is volume of water the primary metric for measuring the significance of fire? Never heard of that. Residence of Merrimack Valley and San Bruno probably don't care about how much water was used since they are dead.

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they let their opinions be heard at the ballot box.

https://www.newswest9.com/article/news/local/as-seen-on-tv/gas-plant-explosion-happens-overnight-in-greenwood-authorities-evacuate-everyone-within-one-mile-radius/513-74407391-1850-4b3b-9107-92f1cabf11ca

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/PLD18FR002.aspx

Get rid of Abbott too?

nortex97 said:

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Exactly. How many LNG fires have taken 5 million+ gallons of water to extinguish?

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Not a lot of water needed to extinguish this but unfortunately many homes destroyed and 8 people killed by nat gas but you seem to believe the greatest hazard to live near is an battery storage facility and neighbors with EVs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bruno_pipeline_explosion

Duh explosions are way better because there's no fire!

Will you at least admit its a much more serious type of fire because it releases its own oxygen?

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Will you at least admit its a much more serious type of fire because it releases its own oxygen?

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Than most common hydrocarbon fires, yes it is. But Nortex is worried about the risk of living near a battery storage facility or a neighbor with an EV. I would be much more worried about an explosion from hydrocarbon or fertilizer storage facilities given the thousands of deaths from those plus releases of hazardous gases.

Versus a well blow out/fire, they can be a lot worse than this storage facility. . Go see what it took to put the genie back in the bottle in Macondo, Kuwait, Piper Alpha, etc….

I know you want to talk about anything but why some of us won't get an EV, but that's not really the point.

Tesla hemorrhaging market share in world's top EV market, slashes model Y production in China. Will Europe join Biden's EV trade war with China?

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China has emerged as the undisputed leader in EV production, exporting over 1.5 million units in 2023 to dozens of markets. The EU is by far China's biggest customer for EVs, importing nearly 500,000 vehicles last year almost a third of China's total EV exports. This dominance gives the EU significant leverage in the current geopolitical climate and it also could make it vulnerable to the escalations.

A full-blown trade war, with the EU mirroring US tariffs, could lead to a significant price hike for European consumers. In contrast to the US which imported a fraction (less than three percent) of the EU total, affordable Chinese EVs, currently a major driver of EV adoption in the region, could become much more expensive. This price increase could impact the EU's ambitious green mobility policy agenda, heavily reliant on the affordability of EVs to achieve mass market penetration.

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I doubt it, but it could have an interesting impact when these tariffs do hit in August.

Tesla settles another death trap lawsuit on the eve of trial.

Quote:

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Tesla Inc. has reached a deal to resolve a lawsuit over the death of a Model S passenger in a fiery 2016 crash, marking the second time in two months the electric-vehicle maker has avoided a jury trial in California over a fatal wreck.

Friday's settlement comes after the automaker in April struck a confidential accord in a high-profile suit over a crash involving Autopilot on the eve of a trial. In that case an Apple Inc. engineer was killed on the way to work in 2018 when his Model X veered off the highway and slammed into a roadside barrier at about 71 miles (114 kilometers) per hour.

While Tesla has drawn a lot of attention from regulatory investigations and litigation over alleged defects with its assisted-driving software, the crash in downtown Indianapolis almost eight years ago involved different issues.

The plaintiffs claimed that driver Casey Speckman lost control of the 2015 Model S when the car suddenly accelerated on its own, hitting a tree and bursting into flames. Speckman's boss, Kevin McCarthy, who was in the passenger seat, allegedly survived the impact but died in the blaze ignited by a battery explosion, according to his family's complaint in state court in San Jose. The suit blamed the "propensity of the vehicle to catch fire, as well as the defective design of the door latch system entrapping him in the vehicle."

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/tesla-settles-another-fatal-crash-suit-ahead-of-california-trial/ar-BB1nd8JB

You started the talk about electric grid battery storage which is anything other than about EVs.

Kansas Kid said:

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You started the talk about electric grid battery storage which is anything other than about EVs.

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You ignored the reference to the claim/hope that EV batteries will wind up recycled as battery storage when they hit 20 percent+ degradation, which is actually a topic we've covered several times in this thread I believe.

nortex97 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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You started the talk about electric grid battery storage which is anything other than about EVs.

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You ignored the reference to the claim/hope that EV batteries will wind up recycled as battery storage when they hit 20 percent+ degradation, which is actually a topic we've covered several times in this thread I believe.

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How many recycled batteries were in the storage facility? Even if they were, I pointed out how you worry about risks like that one as if they are the greatest risk in the world which is so far from reality just like when you say you don't want your neighbors to have an EV because of the fire risk when the real risk of your neighbors house catching fire is from cooking, electrical wiring, and heating systems.

I am just pointing out your fear mongering about EVs and Lithium batteries compared to real risks people should worry about. Are EV sales having struggles, absolutely but the main reasons aren't because of the fire issues or environmental issues you keep raising again and again and again. It is range anxiety, inability to charge at a residence so they don't want long wait times, some poorly designed vehicles, politics, people that just want an ICE and the fact that EVs don't work in every use case.

I don't know how many were recycled in that one. The issue is the risk goes up with older batteries, and also that so many more of these are planned. I don't think I am really making any effort to get you to agree with me, but to share information others might take into account hopefully before putting themselves/loved ones at this greater risk.

Further, while the EVangelists are not arguing for a 100 percent transition, even a sizable shift we are very, very far away from the infrastructure needed.

The U.S. would need an estimated 134.1 million EV charging ports to accommodate an all-electric national vehicle fleet.

Currently, we have 188,600 charging ports.https://t.co/2CaBonK2tr

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) May 28, 2024

How much does the risk go up?

nortex97 said:

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I don't know how many were recycled in that one. The issue is the risk goes up with older batteries, and also that so many more of these are planned. I don't think I am really making any effort to get you to agree with me, but to share information others might take into account hopefully before putting themselves/loved ones at this greater risk.

Further, while the EVangelists are not arguing for a 100 percent transition, even a sizable shift we are very, very far away from the infrastructure needed.

The U.S. would need an estimated 134.1 million EV charging ports to accommodate an all-electric national vehicle fleet.

Currently, we have 188,600 charging ports.https://t.co/2CaBonK2tr

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) May 28, 2024

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Once again, you might want to actually read the articles linked to support your positions.
According to that article from wired, the country needs a 6x increase from today because most charging will be done at home. While I have said I don't think the US will go 100% electric, I think 6x is low but the number in your tweet is absurd and doesn't even pass a basic common sense test. It would imply we need 1 public charger for every 2 vehicles on the road today.

129.4 million residential
3.6 million work
1.1 million public DC fast chargers

One of those "factual but not honest" representations of data.


To be clear, I'm criticizing Frank Luntz.

hph6203 said:

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129.4 million residential
3.6 million work
1.1 million public DC fast chargers

One of those "factual but not honest" representations of data.


To be clear, I'm criticizing Frank Luntz.

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Not factual because he was using the current public chargers and then saying the 140MM+ would be needed which is stating those would all be public chargers as well. This is the usual inflammatory crap found on the internet to get clicks and people like Nortex love to post it to support their positions even when the conclusions are absurd.

They're probably comparing it to pumps. Google says there's about 200,000 gas stations in the US. What's the average number of pumps per station? 6 or 8?

Ag with kids said:

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nortex97 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Well I imagine very few people will buy a $95,000 9,000lb truck. Almost 60% are considering buying an EV, and around 25% are "strongly" considering it. Those are very strong numbers, and it blows up the nonsense spouted here about EV's being rejected.

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When fewer are considering than the year before, and only 7 percent of new vehicle registrations are BEV's, and the leading EV manufacturers are laying off/scaling back product plans…tap dancing about 60% 'thinking about" them really is kind of absurd, imho.

Heck, I'd briefly consider it if I were buying a new car next month, but then dismiss it out of hand for the many reasons I've listed here. But let's face it, eventually the direct-from-CCP EV's will show up (and even Elon has recanted and said he opposes tariffs), and wipe out the domestic/UAW competition. That's been the plan all along.

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China has been able to dump all sorts of sub par crap into the US and people buy it because of price.

However, the automobile is HIGHLY regulated for all sorts of stuff - safety being very high on the list. Can the CCP make their cheap ass EVs AND be able to comply with US safety (and other) regulations?

Dumping sub par **** won't get past the regulators. And while the American public will accept a $12 socket set that needs to be replaced in 2 years, they've become accustomed to great quality in their automobiles (all jokes aside, the vehicles sold in the US today are fantastic compared to 40 years ago). I doubt ****ty quality in a NEW car will sell even the lolpoors. They'll just buy another used beater.

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What they put on the test sled for the Feds may or may not be the same vehicle that comes off the production line. Or even better, they'll buy off our politicians to lower regs for "green" vehicles and slip in crap products and Americans will buy them.