Kansas Kid said:

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Teslag said:

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Same for my nieces in the DFW area. They made the comment that there's no point in getting a drivers license since using ubers to get around was cheaper than insurance and a car for their age. When they broke the numbers down it was actually hard to argue their point.

---

How long do they spend waiting on the Uber? If you think it is hard doing a long distance trip in an EV, how are they going to do it relying on Ubers and no license?
This also shows how much less often the younger generation gets together in person than those of us of an older vintage.

---

I never owned a car until I was a senior in college. Until then, I just walked everywhere. Occasionally took a bus. There were only a couple of times (to get my computer repaired, and to buy some shoes for a KINE 199 class) when I needed to ask someone for a ride.

But college campuses and the immediate vicinity tend to be highly walkable compared to most of the US. It would be hard to live in most of Houston without a car. Even when I walked to work, I still needed a car to go shopping.

techno-ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Urban dweller incapable of thinking of use cases she personally does not have thinks that cars are unnecessary.

Also, weirdly teleological - EVs can’t just be a piece of technology, they have to be “about” something. https://t.co/xQTbzj7a8S

— Peter Hague PhD (@peterrhague) January 30, 2024

Posting mainly because I laughed.

---

Build cities for people, not cars? Why not both?

---

I've done the math.

Building a city for people (i.e., not requiring personal vehicles) requires a relatively high population density. Let's say it takes a population of 10,000 to economically support a set of "essential" businesses: a grocery store, a bank, a barbershop, and a couple of restaurants. If you want an adequate number of people within a 15-minute walking distance (about 3/4 mile), that works out to a population density of 5659 people per square mile. Which is feasible: For example, it's less than Staten Island's 8618 people per square mile.

However, typical suburban development only has about 2000 people per square mile. And a large obstacle to higher density is parking for cars. Not just the massive lot at Walmart, but the expectation that every house have a garage and a driveway. It adds up.

BonfireNerd04 said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Teslag said:

---

Same for my nieces in the DFW area. They made the comment that there's no point in getting a drivers license since using ubers to get around was cheaper than insurance and a car for their age. When they broke the numbers down it was actually hard to argue their point.

---

How long do they spend waiting on the Uber? If you think it is hard doing a long distance trip in an EV, how are they going to do it relying on Ubers and no license?
This also shows how much less often the younger generation gets together in person than those of us of an older vintage.

---

I never owned a car until I was a senior in college. Until then, I just walked everywhere. Occasionally took a bus. There were only a couple of times (to get my computer repaired, and to buy some shoes for a KINE 199 class) when I needed to ask someone for a ride.

But college campuses and the immediate vicinity tend to be highly walkable compared to most of the US. It would be hard to live in most of Houston without a car. Even when I walked to work, I still needed a car to go shopping.

---

I hope you had a friend in college with a car. I can't imagine not having one for the spontaneous road trip. Those were some of my favorite times in college.

I had friends that didn't have cars at A&M but they did have a drivers licenses and all wanted one but their parents wouldn't buy them one. I guess I was their unpaid Uber driver and I didn't realize it until now. Can I still send them a bill?

Teslag said:

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Form 71% to 60%?

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710 cars to 600?

California; bad news for BEV adoption/sales.

Quote:

---

The popularity of electric vehicles in America has been on a remarkable rise in recent years, but the final two quarters of 2023 were sobering for automakers. Even in California, the strongest market for EVs in America, sales of fully electric vehicles shrank in the second half of the year.

Although the market share of new EVs grew by five percent in 2023 as compared to 2022, its final quarter of the year was less positive. In Q4, 10 percent fewer new EVs were registered than in the third quarter of the year. Worse still, registrations in Q3 were down (very slightly) as compared to Q2.

"When I think about California's overall adoption, this is just part of this transition," Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, told Autonews. "But if we see more quarters like this, it will be indicative of a slowdown."

---

Oops

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/28/us-auto-industry-rose-8-in-4th-quarter-while-ev-industry-grew-29/

Quote:

---

The US auto industry continues to grow following its long recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic and economic shutdown of 20202021. In the 4th quarter of 2023, US auto sales rose 8% compared to the 4th quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, pure electric vehicle (BEV) sales rose by 29%. So, despite the narrative about people not wanting electric vehicles or buying electric vehicles, EV sales growth has been much stronger than normal auto sales growth. Don't believe all the EV anti-hype.

---

"However, typical suburban development only has about people per square mile. And a large obstacle to higher density is parking for cars. Not just the massive lot at Walmart, but the expectation that every house have a garage and a driveway. It adds up."


Hmm, not going to argue with your math, but suburban areas during the industrial revolution were not too different just prior to the development of early ice or bev vehicles. Horses and horse & carriage required more room than the new mechanized urban transportation. Most residential areas required a mews as supplement to the local transportation network to accommodate for the need. You won't see a secondary and separate transportation such as an alley or mews in modern suburban development , just mot necessary anymore. Suburbia could be denser but not much more than 4DU/acre with out going to multifamily DU density. Automobiles start becoming a problem at that density, but I've seen elegant solutions, they still create some sterile micro environments...but there is always a compromise.

Who doesn't want to live in a walkable community, trouble is most of us don't want to limit our freedom to move about long distances on a whim without utilizing a collective mode of transportation, we all want our cars. Enter Musk and the RoboTaxi.....

I completely understand the desire for SPACE; but that is what God made the weekend house for...until now with our remote employment and gig economy.

As an urban designer (not a planner) if find sprawl to be fairly hideous. Unfortunately modern Urban Planning requires a collaboration of public, private and corporate interest, many times with divergent requisits. So, its Design by Committee and that's how a horse winds up looking like a camel. There are plenty of examples where strong individuals of each one of those camps have carried enough weight to propel a good urban models, even today.

Incoming shortly is an article about the Tesla recall because of the font size being too small for warnings. I am so glad the regulators are going after really important safety maters.

I am shocked it hasn't already been posted.

I'll save the usual suspect the time...


ANOTHER RECALL. DEVASTATING.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/business/tesla-recall-font-size/index.html

Quote:

---

Tesla is recalling 2.2 million of its vehicles on US roads because the font size of the warning lights on its display is too small, according to federal safety regulators.

---

Not relevant to what I posted, despite Troy Teslike's obviously unbiased non-propaganda.

nortex97 said:

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Not relevant to what I posted, despite Troy Teslike's obviously unbiased non-propaganda.

---

EV's outpacing ICE 4th quarter sales isn't' relevant? Your intent was to make it sound like EV sales were slowing. But you didn't bother to see if ICE sales were also slowing.

Typical.


Also you of all people saying something is propaganda might be one of the least self aware things ever posted on the internet ever in the history of ever.

There are some EV makers that are far more concerned about selling to investors than they are about selling cars. Be wary.

Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Not relevant to what I posted, despite Troy Teslike's obviously unbiased non-propaganda.

---

EV's outpacing ICE 4th quarter sales isn't' relevant? Your intent was to make it sound like EV sales were slowing. But you didn't bother to see if ICE sales were also slowing.

Typical.


Also you of all people saying something is propaganda might be one of the least self aware things ever posted on the internet ever in the history of ever.

---

Nortex only posts from totally non-biased sites.

sam callahan said:

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There are some EV makers that are far more concerned about selling to investors than they are about selling cars. Be wary.

---

Agreed. A lot of those startups are going to cease to exist shortly. This is similar to the early days of the automobile when way more companies failed than succeeded. A lot of investors are going to regret trying to buy the next Tesla.

Teslag said:

---

nortex97 said:

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Not relevant to what I posted, despite Troy Teslike's obviously unbiased non-propaganda.

---

EV's outpacing ICE 4th quarter sales isn't' relevant? Your intent was to make it sound like EV sales were slowing. But you didn't bother to see if ICE sales were also slowing.

Typical.


Also you of all people saying something is propaganda might be one of the least self aware things ever posted on the internet ever in the history of ever.

---

Your ability to discern my intent is highly suspect. You also fall for Kiev war propaganda, vaccine propaganda, and Tesla propaganda continuously. So I reject your higher ground to criticize me for calling out propaganda.

I have to do some work so I will allow you the next twelve angry posts.

Did EV 4th quarter sales growth year over year outpace ICE? Yes or no.

Dude...the slowdown is for non Tesla vehicles...you can't blame the legacy makers for abandoning the market they aren't designed to exist in. Their technology isn't suited for BEVs, so they have to invest orders of magnitude more for an entirely new platform that only shares a few components with their customary technoecosystem. They seem to have given it a try but just can't do it, all they do is lose large sums money with each vehicle and the dealer network is the yolk about their necks. So they are left with a stop gap measure of expanding their hybrid models that are neither ICE nor BEV.

Hell, they can't even sell their cash cow, the light truck which the government has mandated to be behemoths on the road.

The days of the large displacement engine are at the end of their life span, making them more efficient is only possible by increasing their complexity and we all know that complexity just makes them less reliability.

At least Ford has a implemented a plan to dedicate resources to each method, the ice division which i assume will include hybrids and the electric division and of course the commercial division for large scale ice vehicles. If they survive they may be the only legacy manufacturer to do so if legislation prohibits the import or highly tariffed Chinese vehicles.

Kansas Kid said:

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sam callahan said:

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There are some EV makers that are far more concerned about selling to investors than they are about selling cars. Be wary.

---

Agreed. A lot of those startups are going to cease to exist shortly. This is similar to the early days of the automobile when way more companies failed than succeeded. A lot of investors are going to regret trying to buy the next Tesla.

---

Yes, but it depends on which market they want to first put their foot in to establish a beachhead.

Canoo out of Oklahoma is banking on delivery vehicles and light pick-ups for foreign and domestic markets. Once they have established a market segment they can exploit, they will expand the fleet. I think Canoo has a good chance, they have started building and selling delivery vehicles, IIRC, the Postal Service is one of their customers.

Tesla has done it by emulating the Apple model and beginning with an upscale sportster, but Tesla is much more than a BEV manufacturer.

Aptera is going to try it with a 3wheeler solar power BEV designed for urban transportation.

UPS has made an investment on EU's Arrival...but it looks to be running out of cash.

Amazon is investing in Rivian to build its delivery fleet. Rivian seems to have a good chance to survive and has made its beachhead on the light truck and delivery BEVs.

Volvos' (Chinese Geely Motors) Polestar is so far, unsuccessfully, trying it with their high-end cars. Not likely to survive but their tech is worth cannibalizing.

Teslag said:

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ANOTHER RECALL. DEVASTATING.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/business/tesla-recall-font-size/index.html

Quote:

---

Tesla is recalling 2.2 million of its vehicles on US roads because the font size of the warning lights on its display is too small, according to federal safety regulators.

---

---

Thanks. There are so many recalls, at least one a week it seems like. Really you're buying a computer more than a car. A glitchy, unsafe computer.

techno-ag said:

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Teslag said:

---

ANOTHER RECALL. DEVASTATING.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/business/tesla-recall-font-size/index.html

Quote:

---

Tesla is recalling 2.2 million of its vehicles on US roads because the font size of the warning lights on its display is too small, according to federal safety regulators.

---

---

Thanks. There are so many recalls, at least one a week it seems like. Really you're buying a computer more than a car. A glitchy, unsafe computer.

---

I know. Having the font size that the regulators don't approve of is a massively unsafe condition that will kill millions if uncorrected. I really think they need to change to Time New Roman because the current font is a ticking time bomb.

techno-ag said:

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Teslag said:

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ANOTHER RECALL. DEVASTATING.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/business/tesla-recall-font-size/index.html

Quote:

---

Tesla is recalling 2.2 million of its vehicles on US roads because the font size of the warning lights on its display is too small, according to federal safety regulators.

---

---

Thanks. There are so many recalls, at least one a week it seems like. Really you're buying a computer more than a car. A glitchy, unsafe computer.

---

Or Big Brother is picking on someone...

Helvetica Bold or GTFO!

Well this is a new angle.

Quote:

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Electric vehicles that typically weigh more than gasoline-powered cars can easily crash through steel highway guardrails that are not designed to withstand the extra force, raising concerns about the nation's roadside safety system, according to crash test data released Wednesday by the University of Nebraska.

---

Quote:

---

Electric vehicles typically weigh 20% to 50% more than gas-powered vehicles thanks to batteries that can weigh almost as much as a small gas-powered car. And they have lower centers of gravity. Because of these differences, guardrails can do little to stop electric vehicles from pushing through barriers typically made of steel.

Last fall, engineers at Nebraska's Midwest Roadside Safety Facility watched as an electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the facility's testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport. The nearly 4-ton (3.6 metric ton) 2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side.

---

Video at LINK

aggiehawg said:

---

Well this is a new angle.

Quote:

---

Electric vehicles that typically weigh more than gasoline-powered cars can easily crash through steel highway guardrails that are not designed to withstand the extra force, raising concerns about the nation's roadside safety system, according to crash test data released Wednesday by the University of Nebraska.

---

Quote:

---

Electric vehicles typically weigh 20% to 50% more than gas-powered vehicles thanks to batteries that can weigh almost as much as a small gas-powered car. And they have lower centers of gravity. Because of these differences, guardrails can do little to stop electric vehicles from pushing through barriers typically made of steel.

Last fall, engineers at Nebraska's Midwest Roadside Safety Facility watched as an electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the facility's testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport. The nearly 4-ton (3.6 metric ton) 2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side.

---

Video at LINK

---

Wowzers!

aggiehawg said:

---

Well this is a new angle.

Quote:

---

Electric vehicles that typically weigh more than gasoline-powered cars can easily crash through steel highway guardrails that are not designed to withstand the extra force, raising concerns about the nation's roadside safety system, according to crash test data released Wednesday by the University of Nebraska.

---

Quote:

---

Electric vehicles typically weigh 20% to 50% more than gas-powered vehicles thanks to batteries that can weigh almost as much as a small gas-powered car. And they have lower centers of gravity. Because of these differences, guardrails can do little to stop electric vehicles from pushing through barriers typically made of steel.

Last fall, engineers at Nebraska's Midwest Roadside Safety Facility watched as an electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the facility's testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport. The nearly 4-ton (3.6 metric ton) 2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side.

---

Video at LINK

---

First I have heard of this but it makes sense if you are testing 8000 lbs vehicles.

Also from the article
The facility has seen this problem before. In the 1990s, as more people began buying light-weight pickups and sport utility vehicles, the Midwest Roadside Safety Facility found that the then-50-year-old guardrail system was proving inadequate to handle their extra weight. So, it went about redesigning guardrails to adapt.

"At the time, lightweight pickups made up 10-to-15% of the vehicle fleet," Stolle said. "Now, more than 50% of vehicles on the road are pickups and SUVs."

The test was on the Rivian which is among the heaviest EVs at 7000-8000 lbs. I assume the sedans and crossover EVs wouldn't have this issue since they are 4,500 to 5,500 which is similar to many of the vehicles already on the road. The lower CG may cause some other stress differences which would also change performance of the barriers.

Volvo has pulled the plug on its EV unit, Polestar, and may try to sell it.

Renault has scrapped listing its EV unit, Ampere.

Reality checks being cashed everywhere.

YouBet said:

---

Volvo has pulled the plug on its EV unit, Polestar, and may try to sell it.

Renault has scrapped listing its EV unit, Ampere.

Reality checks being cashed everywhere.

---

There will be a lot of EVs that will go the way of the Edsel, the Chevy SSR, Cadillac XLR, Jaguar X type, Pontiac Aztek, and Dodge Prowler. A lot of the new EVs are crap like almost everything built in the 80s when Detroit rapidly tried to make fuel efficient cars to meet CAFE standards and compete with the Japanese small cars.

Kansas Kid said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Volvo has pulled the plug on its EV unit, Polestar, and may try to sell it.

Renault has scrapped listing its EV unit, Ampere.

Reality checks being cashed everywhere.

---

There will be a lot of EVs that will go the way of the Edsel, the Chevy SSR, Cadillac XLR, Jaguar X type, Pontiac Aztek, and Dodge Prowler. A lot of the new EVs are crap like almost everything built in the 80s when Detroit rapidly tried to make fuel efficient cars to meet CAFE standards and compete with the Japanese small cars.

---

I really want to be on the wall at Dodge who previously announced scrapping of all ICE engines and going 100% EV. Considering the demo (lower to middle class) that buys their cars they can't be feeling good about it right now.

YouBet said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Volvo has pulled the plug on its EV unit, Polestar, and may try to sell it.

Renault has scrapped listing its EV unit, Ampere.

Reality checks being cashed everywhere.

---

There will be a lot of EVs that will go the way of the Edsel, the Chevy SSR, Cadillac XLR, Jaguar X type, Pontiac Aztek, and Dodge Prowler. A lot of the new EVs are crap like almost everything built in the 80s when Detroit rapidly tried to make fuel efficient cars to meet CAFE standards and compete with the Japanese small cars.

---

I really want to be on the wall at Dodge who previously announced scrapping of all ICE engines and going 100% EV. Considering the demo (lower to middle class) that buys their cars they can't be feeling good about it right now.

---

Agreed. Most of the legacy guys went overboard on EVs and then most of what they built in that space is crap because they tried to take their existing platforms and just electrify them rather than starting from the ground up.

EVs aren't going away but they aren't going to be the lions share of the market at least in the US and developing countries. Europe maybe but they have shown a willingness to do stupid stuff many, many times.

As usual on this thread, a lot was left out of his post and a link wasn't provided. Volvo is divesting Polestar to its parent company as Volvo's in house EV sales are soaring…

Quote:

---

Turning back to Volvo's financial performance, one area driving results was something of a surprise: Volvo said EV deliveries jumped 70% in 2023 to more than 113,000 vehicles. That represents 16% of total global sales.

Volvo also said it increased its EV market share by 34% compared to 2022. The EV growth is surprising given some of the hiccups automakers are seeing with EV growth, even Tesla (TSLA), which says it will grow at a slower rate than it has in the past.

---

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volvo-stock-surges-on-strong-sales-and-ev-deliveries-will-no-longer-fund-polestar-214522880.html

Sub-20 minute charging is here. Sub-15 minute likely by or near the end of the decade as battery manufacturers start adding silicon to their batteries.

Wow, the refreshed Taycan can charge at a constant ~300 kW speed up to 62% before dropping off. Then at 200kW until 75%. That’s an incredible charging curve. https://t.co/1JODMzRSRJ

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 3, 2024

Real world range test of a refreshed Model 3. EPA range 333 miles, real world range 327 miles in 56 degree weather.




Tesla also cut COGS by nearly 10% last year with further reductions expected this year.

It appears most $TSLA WS analysts suffer from Pavlov’s Dog Theory when they hear “price cuts” they start salivating but in fear of margins vs doing the critical thinking around COGS deflation happening faster than price. Btw this has been true since the latter have of Q2 last… pic.twitter.com/DzwlIE2rPT

— Jeff Lutz 🔋 (@thejefflutz) January 28, 2024

When Henry Ford launched his car he didn’t insist that the government shoot all the horses to ensure the success of his new product.

It was better so people bought it.

EVs aren’t better so people aren’t buying them.
https://t.co/uwt7fgMOq0

— Graham K (@GrahamLKeegan) February 3, 2024

Quote:

---

Likewise, Volvo announced that it would stop funding its EV unit, Polestar, and might even offload its 48pc stake on other shareholders, including China's Geely. Last September, Volkswagen said it was cutting production of two of its flagship EV models, while in November, Ford said it was scaling back its battery plant in Michigan.

It looks like all those "well-paid green jobs" are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have "invested" in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that's great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

---

Quote:

---

Finally, they have to pay out even more to keep alive the factories making a product that no one wants. It's a vicious cycle, and once it starts it is very hard to stop.

The one relief for the UK is that our political and administrative class was too inept to pour even more money in, despite the best efforts of the former PM's Theresa May and Boris Johnson to splurge a few tens of billions into the "race for EVs" and the endless warnings that we risked "getting left behind'". We will be spared the worst of the pain ahead.

In reality, the volte-face on the electrification of the auto industry is underway. Major manufacturers have started to pull back, but all the grand projects for battery factories, for shiny new EV plants, and for charging infrastructure, will inevitably be scrapped very soon.

Billions of taxpayer's money will have been wasted. We should draw the lesson from that, as bitter as it might prove. The Government never knows what the industries of the future will be and should leave it to entrepreneurs and customers to work that out.

---

nortex97 said:

---

When Henry Ford launched his car he didn’t insist that the government shoot all the horses to ensure the success of his new product.

It was better so people bought it.

EVs aren’t better so people aren’t buying them.
https://t.co/uwt7fgMOq0

— Graham K (@GrahamLKeegan) February 3, 2024

Quote:

---

Likewise, Volvo announced that it would stop funding its EV unit, Polestar, and might even offload its 48pc stake on other shareholders, including China's Geely. Last September, Volkswagen said it was cutting production of two of its flagship EV models, while in November, Ford said it was scaling back its battery plant in Michigan.

It looks like all those "well-paid green jobs" are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have "invested" in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that's great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

---

Quote:

---

Finally, they have to pay out even more to keep alive the factories making a product that no one wants. It's a vicious cycle, and once it starts it is very hard to stop.

The one relief for the UK is that our political and administrative class was too inept to pour even more money in, despite the best efforts of the former PM's Theresa May and Boris Johnson to splurge a few tens of billions into the "race for EVs" and the endless warnings that we risked "getting left behind'". We will be spared the worst of the pain ahead.

In reality, the volte-face on the electrification of the auto industry is underway. Major manufacturers have started to pull back, but all the grand projects for battery factories, for shiny new EV plants, and for charging infrastructure, will inevitably be scrapped very soon.

Billions of taxpayer's money will have been wasted. We should draw the lesson from that, as bitter as it might prove. The Government never knows what the industries of the future will be and should leave it to entrepreneurs and customers to work that out.

---

---

From my post above----

Volvos' (Chinese Geely Motors) Polestar is so far, unsuccessfully, trying it with their high-end cars. Not likely to survive but their tech is worth cannibalizing.

nortex97 said:

---

When Henry Ford launched his car he didn’t insist that the government shoot all the horses to ensure the success of his new product.

It was better so people bought it.

EVs aren’t better so people aren’t buying them.
https://t.co/uwt7fgMOq0

— Graham K (@GrahamLKeegan) February 3, 2024

Quote:

---

Likewise, Volvo announced that it would stop funding its EV unit, Polestar, and might even offload its 48pc stake on other shareholders, including China's Geely. Last September, Volkswagen said it was cutting production of two of its flagship EV models, while in November, Ford said it was scaling back its battery plant in Michigan.

It looks like all those "well-paid green jobs" are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have "invested" in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that's great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

---

Quote:

---

Finally, they have to pay out even more to keep alive the factories making a product that no one wants. It's a vicious cycle, and once it starts it is very hard to stop.

The one relief for the UK is that our political and administrative class was too inept to pour even more money in, despite the best efforts of the former PM's Theresa May and Boris Johnson to splurge a few tens of billions into the "race for EVs" and the endless warnings that we risked "getting left behind'". We will be spared the worst of the pain ahead.

In reality, the volte-face on the electrification of the auto industry is underway. Major manufacturers have started to pull back, but all the grand projects for battery factories, for shiny new EV plants, and for charging infrastructure, will inevitably be scrapped very soon.

Billions of taxpayer's money will have been wasted. We should draw the lesson from that, as bitter as it might prove. The Government never knows what the industries of the future will be and should leave it to entrepreneurs and customers to work that out.

---

---

Except that Tesla has proven all this to be complete and total BS

Every time I read a story that says EVs are failing and demand is falling it becomes clear the person writing the story is being either absent minded or intentionally dishonest. Demand falling suggests that the total number of sales is declining rather than what is actually happening, which is the rate of growth is slowing.

Compare that to vehicles with combustion engines (hybrid, PHEV, or ICE) where the total number of sales was down 20% between its peak in 2017 and 2022. And yet no one seems to think that rate of reduction portends a destruction of ICE sales, but a mere 50% growth rate of EVs means they're doomed. Odd.

That is a trend that began long before supply chain issues hit during the pandemic and the only thing that maintained some level of normalcy in vehicle sales was the growth in BEVs. There has been a small reprieve in that downward trend in 2023, but BMW's CEO recently stated they do not expect that resurgence to be durable. In other words its backlog demand from an even lower than expected sales in 2022 getting pushed out into 2023 causing the increase, rather than an upward trend returning to 2017 sales volumes.


We'll see what's in store when China begins exporting BEVs to the world and whether the "let the market decide" chants will continue as 300+ mile range <$30,000 vehicles hit the market. All while ICE vehicle prices continue to rise.

BYD just purchased 9 (I believe) car carriers capable of shipping 5,000 vehicles. I think I read Chinese manufacturers in total have ordered 60. My guess is it's going to turn into "we need to protect our auto manufacturers and impose strict tariffs against Chinese manufacturers." Rather than the market will decide.