https://fortune.com/2023/11/27/ev-sales-inventory-mazda-ceo-tesla/amp/

Yet another red flag about how nobody is buying EVs.

Quote:

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"EV is absolutely important technology, and we are developing it. But [in the U.S.] EVs last year [were] about 6% of the market. This year it is 8%. And out of that 8%, 57% was Tesla. Other EVs are not taking off, inventory is piling up."

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Kansas Kid said:

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nortex97 said:

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As usual I am the only one providing facts/data and logical arguments here. If you guys/girls decide to provide anything substantive I'll check back later. Inconvenient truths, from our own communist news agency.

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So you want facts, how about current EVs don't use platinum like your "facts" claim.

"We could lose literally all of the quantities mentioned in world consumption - 40 percent of platinum, 75 percent of palladium and rhodium. It will shake the industry more than the collapse of silver photography. Time frame? Some say as early as 2023, others say 2040."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-platinum-demand-automotive-idUSKBN19X21V/

Go on making stuff up and saying you are the one presenting facts. Also, how many houses have burned down from EV fires since you always raise that one? I showed over 300 people per year die in house fires per year caused by traditional vehicles.

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You're quoting Bodo, an AGW true believer, who works for BASF and is fully committed to the CCP cause. Hint: they pay him.

Anyway, more neutral sources have provided better analyses. Buy precious metals, lot's of 'em. Oh, and for grins, Russia provides a lot of them. Putin thanks you.

Quote:

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At the scale that we need by 2030… Zeihan points out that…

• We'll need 4x the Chromium.
• We'll need 10x the Lithium.
• We'll need 10x the Nickel.
• And we'll need 18x the Graphite.

Russia's a top producer of these commodities. Meanwhile, environmentalists keep U.S. producers out of new mines, and California can't produce anything without a lawyer holding a producer's right hand, and a regulator holding the other one.

Once More… Buy the Dang Metals

This transition won't be easy… but it will be forced. And we know that metals demand will be extremely high (and help propel inflation in the process). This week, I'll be working on a report on how to invest in these metals. Look out for it soon.

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As I have stated, BEV house fires will expand in quantity and total deaths as aging BEV's increase as a share of the market of older vehicles. Or, just keep thinking BEV's need less metals/precious metals/rare earth minerals than ICE vehicles, and this 'transition' is not politically driven, just our government(s) helping consumers make 'smart' decisions.

You realize your chart shows that platinum has minimal use in EVs or do you not know what PGMs are? You also are looking at metal demand based on current technology. Will EVs use more copper and graphite, almost certainly but lithium and rare earth metals are potentially being innovated out to reduce costs.

"EV market leader Tesla announced earlier this year it planned to remove rare earths from its next-generation EVs. Other automakers are also in the process of researching or developing EV motors that use little or no rare earth minerals."

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/amp/automakers-seek-to-produce-ev-vehicles-with-fewer-rare-earths/7362904.html

BNEF Report on Battery Price Projections

Quote:

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Following unprecedented price increases in 2022, battery prices are falling again this year. The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh, according to analysis by research provider BloombergNEF (BNEF).

...

Miners and metals traders surveyed expect prices for key battery metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt to ease further in 2024. Given this, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real 2023 dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.

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14% drop 2022 to 2023. Followed by a projected 11% drop anticipated in 2024, and a further 15% drop in 2025, falling all the way to $80/kWh for an average battery pack. EV battery packs tend to be cheaper than the average, and the average is inclusive of all battery chemistries, so when you get into the lower cost LFP (and eventually Sodium Ion, if they get put in U.S. vehicles, and are not included in this report) you could see an even more significant difference between current prices and 2030 prices.

techno-ag said:

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https://fortune.com/2023/11/27/ev-sales-inventory-mazda-ceo-tesla/amp/

Yet another red flag about how nobody is buying EVs.

Quote:

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"EV is absolutely important technology, and we are developing it. But [in the U.S.] EVs last year [were] about 6% of the market. This year it is 8%. And out of that 8%, 57% was Tesla. Other EVs are not taking off, inventory is piling up."

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So basically, EV's sales are expanding as long as you don't make a terrible product?

A doomed technology:

Quote:

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Electric vehicles have been around for 100 years or so. They lost out to gasoline powered cars because gasoline powered cars are better. Is that ever going to change? At the Telegraph, Michael Kelly draws an analogy to the Concorde:

Quote:

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The man in the street has failed to embrace BEVs for the same reason he failed to embrace Concorde nearly 50 years ago: the extra cost of order 10,000 per vehicle represents an insurmountable barrier. People might pay the extra if they were getting something better in performance terms, but range anxiety and the lack of convenient recharging infrastructure remain formidable hurdles. Insurance costs are high too, with figures as high as 6000 quoted in the media.

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A tendency to spontaneously combust will tend to drive up insurance rates. But that isn't the worst of it:

Quote:

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There are other cost pressures on EVs. While oil and gas are widespread commodities, with numerous suppliers around the world, the materials for BEV batteries are mostly controlled by China. Expansion of the EV market will reap rich rewards for Beijing (while simultaneously causing immense environmental damage): and limited supplies combined with rising demand will push up prices still further.

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Politicians are demanding that we switch to EVs while at the same time transforming our electrical grid by turning to wind and solar generationwhich is impossible, and won't happen:

Quote:

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Another source of cost inflation is human resources. We will need 40,000 professional engineers for the next 30 years just to expand the electricity supply industry generation, transmission and distribution to cope with the 170 per cent increase in demand required by the planned transition to all-electric transport and heating, both industrial and domestic.

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You might assume that someone has gotten out a pencil and paper and figured out how a transition to "green" energy, accompanied by a transition to EVs, can possibly be implemented. But you would be wrong. There is no plan, no demonstration project, no set of calculations, no plausible feasibility study. The whole thing is a fantasy which will cause ever-increasing damage if politicians insist on pursuing it.
The problems with battery-powered vehicles are inherent and cannot be overcome by technology:

Quote:

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In 1974, when I bought my first electronic calculator, the AA battery had a carbon rod core and an outer casing of zinc. Intensive research and development since then has provided us with the lithium-ion battery, which can store six times as much electrical energy in the same volume. However, the energy density is still 40 times worse than petrol. Experts suggest that the best we can hope for is an improvement by a factor of two over the next 50 years.

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With unsold EVs piling up around the world, automobile manufacturers are backing off on their commitment to the technology. Can they make battery-powered cars? Sure. But should they? The only momentum behind the technology is government mandates, and governments can be fickle. As the "green" transition inevitably crashes and burns, manufacturers do not want to be left holding the bag.

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Not the future:

Quote:

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Those who have been paying attention understand that there is zero chance that our existing motor vehicle fleet will be converted to EVs. Mark Tapscott sums up some of the reasons. I want to focus on just one of his points, the fact that the lithium batteries needed to replace our current vehicle fleet would require ridiculous amounts of mining of minerals, particularly lithium, the price of which is already sky-high. How do liberals intend to accomplish this unprecedented global mining project?
Answer: they don't. Mark quotes from a report by an environmental organization:

Quote:

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This report finds that the United States can achieve zero emissions transportation while limiting the amount of lithium mining necessary by reducing the car dependence of the transportation system, decreasing the size of electric vehicle batteries, and maximizing lithium recycling.
Reordering the US transportation system through policy and spending shifts to prioritize public and active transit while reducing car dependency can also ensure transit equity, protect ecosystems, respect Indigenous rights, and meet the demands of global justice.

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This is what liberal politicians are not telling youyet. They don't really plan to replace your car with an EV, they don't want to replace it at all. They want you to walk, bicycle, and use public transportation. In other words, they want to destroy the traditional American freedom to, as Mark says, go where we please, when we please. That is a radical and unwelcome change in American life, right up there with eating insects instead of meat.

Where I live, we are already seeing this push to take us out of our cars. Highways in the Twin Cities are deliberately under-designed, so that traffic is needlessly congested. Urban planners, not just oblivious but hostile to our basic freedoms, have spent billions of dollars on trains that hardly anyone rides, and have converted traffic lanes to bicycle lanes that are scarcely usednot used at all, this time of yearthus snarling traffic further. Their dream of mass reliance on public transportation is a century out of date; mass transit usage peaked in the Twin Cities in the early 20th Century. But the fun of inconveniencing the rest of us is too good to pass up.

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I will gladly, and enthusiastically continue to resist the push to EV's.

This may shock you but I agree the whole fleet won't convert to EVs in the next 20-30 years because there are places they don't work and there will be people like you that don't . I also agree the amount of metals needed will serve as a limiter to but I think it will be the common metals like copper and nickel not REE and lithium because of innovation.

Where I think you will see high adoption is in fleet vehicles where they are recharged at night, for second vehicles in a family and for those who like insane acceleration. Will some countries in Europe mistakenly keep the mandates, unfortunately yes. Will China force an high percentage adoption to improve local air quality, also yes but that will only improve the situation if they continue rapid expansion of nukes and not coal. The US will eventually drop the mandates as they prove impractical and the political pressure builds. Those are my best guesses.

Teslag said:

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Good thing replacing an EV at 150k is rare

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but anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence! especially when you apparently have an axe to grind against EVs.

China will curb exports of key EV battery material from December 1. Western electric vehicle makers rush to secure graphite supplies. #geoeconomics #Velsig https://t.co/PeZGjZKzS7

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) November 28, 2023

Quote:

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China announced on Friday that it will require export permits for graphite, a key material for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, starting Dec. 1. The country is the world's top graphite producer, and the move could spur procurement difficulties for global EV makers.

Regulations will be introduced based on the Export Control Law and others that tighten export controls on strategic goods, preventing Chinese companies from exporting unless they go through the authority's examination process and obtain permission.

Graphite, one of the most widely used materials for EVs, is used in automotive anodes, the negatively charged portion of the battery.

China makes up about 65% of global production of this key material, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In particular, Chinese companies are believed to hold over 80% of market share in negatively charged materials for automotive batteries, in which high-purity graphite is essential.

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Toyota backs off solid-state battery sales production estimates/projections;

Quote:

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In Toyota's internal news outlet, Toyota Times, the automaker wrote, "In the [SSB] mass production phase anticipated for 2030 and beyond, the companies are looking to boost capacity to several thousand tonnes (several tens of thousands of vehicles) in line with Toyota's product plans."
The "companies" referred to are Toyota and Japan's petrochemical conglomerate Idemitsu Kosan, which formalized collaboration on SSBs this year. Right now, Toyota and Idemitsu are working on the development times for solid electrolyte and resulting quality and cost. When those are locked in, the firms will work on a pilot facility for commercialization. Initial commercial effort will take two years of testing and validation before wider production commences in 2030.

The "several tens of thousands of vehicles" appears to have gone through at least one revision after publication. In Jalopnik's writeup, the capacity was quoted as "over ten thousand vehicles." Even at the larger sum, that's considerably less than onlookers expected, but that might be because onlookers expected too much, not because Toyota overpromised. The automaker's talked big numbers for BEV sales, but has talked just as bigly about what kinds of electrified powertrains those sales will entail: At least four kinds of battery technologies, plus hydrogen, and hybrids. In 2021, Toyota said it expected to have an SSB ready by 2025. In 2022, a Toyota engineer said the first product to get an SSB would be a hybrid on go on sale in the first half of the decade.

But over this summer, after finding a breakthrough in SSB technology, the company said its SSBs would target small-scale commercialization in 2027 or 2028; that matches Nissan's plans for the milestone, and Honda's rough target of "the second half of the decade." Toyota's next-gen BEVs are due in 2026, but these are multiple purpose-built advances on current technology. When the company said in September it expected to sell 3.5 million BEVs a year by 2030, it also said 1.7 million of those vehicles would be next-gen models using the range of advanced liquid and solid chemistries.

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More, as usual, at the link…

As usual Nortex a day late and a dollar short. Tesla has already secured sources of graphite outside of China last month and its supplier is currently building a production facility in Louisiana.

The most American car on the road even got more American because of this. Thanks for sharing Nortex.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-supplier-syrah-expects-more-graphite-buys-ahead-china-export-ban-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Syrah%2C%20which%20has%20a%20supply,material%20(AAM)%20for%20batteries.

Teslag said:

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As usual Nortex a day late and a dollar short. Tesla has already secured sources of graphite outside of China last month and its supplier is currently building a production facility in Louisiana.

The most American car on the road even got more American because of this. Thanks for sharing Nortex.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-supplier-syrah-expects-more-graphite-buys-ahead-china-export-ban-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Syrah%2C%20which%20has%20a%20supply,material%20(AAM)%20for%20batteries.

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Elon helping Americans become even more independent from the ME and now even China.



Side note: I'm now starting to see Tesla charging stations at Love's Travel Stops. It's good to see Elon not only adding them at Buc'ees but also another huge gas station with Love's. Between both of those places and more and more coming online soon, it'll be that much easier for people in Texas with EVs to travel to the places they want.

No Spin Ag said:

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Teslag said:

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As usual Nortex a day late and a dollar short. Tesla has already secured sources of graphite outside of China last month and its supplier is currently building a production facility in Louisiana.

The most American car on the road even got more American because of this. Thanks for sharing Nortex.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-supplier-syrah-expects-more-graphite-buys-ahead-china-export-ban-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Syrah%2C%20which%20has%20a%20supply,material%20(AAM)%20for%20batteries.

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Elon helping Americans become even more independent from the ME and now even China.



Side note: I'm now starting to see Tesla charging stations at Love's Travel Stops. It's good to see Elon not only adding them at Buc'ees but also another huge gas station with Love's. Between both of those places and more and more coming online soon, it'll be that much easier for people in Texas with EVs to travel to the places they want.

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I also see them at a lot of Sheetz stations. Of those three, the typical Tesla owner MIGHT set foot inside Buc-ee's. Depends upon how bad they have to pee. I know at Sheetz they all sit in their cars with the doors locked.

torrid said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Teslag said:

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As usual Nortex a day late and a dollar short. Tesla has already secured sources of graphite outside of China last month and its supplier is currently building a production facility in Louisiana.

The most American car on the road even got more American because of this. Thanks for sharing Nortex.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-supplier-syrah-expects-more-graphite-buys-ahead-china-export-ban-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Syrah%2C%20which%20has%20a%20supply,material%20(AAM)%20for%20batteries.

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Elon helping Americans become even more independent from the ME and now even China.



Side note: I'm now starting to see Tesla charging stations at Love's Travel Stops. It's good to see Elon not only adding them at Buc'ees but also another huge gas station with Love's. Between both of those places and more and more coming online soon, it'll be that much easier for people in Texas with EVs to travel to the places they want.

---

I also see them at a lot of Sheetz stations. Of those three, the typical Tesla owner MIGHT set foot inside Buc-ee's. Depends upon how bad they have to pee. I know at Sheetz they all sit in their cars with the doors locked.

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If you're driving for hours on I-35 and need to stop for 30-40 minutes to charge your EV I would imagine most need to piss.

The point isn't to make this into a Tesla/fan boy argument at all, but the more significant impact of China's control of anode/cathode materials required for EV's of all flavors. But I know some just want to be happy about some 20 percent share of some precious metal from Australia like it's a big win, because it's all a 'gotcha' game posting here to a certain group.

EV's writ large are a problem for America politically, and no brand is going to change that, imho, as the Chinese move on graphite exports shows.

Anyway, some sentiment in the market is generating a readiness to shift back away from the "EV future" per Stellantis' boss. Encouraging, as no auto CEO would have said such a thing a year or more ago.

And yet you aren't worried about the PGMs needed to produce gasoline and diesel vehicles…(except he thought they were used in EVs in which case he highlighted it as supporting the CCP).

Same thing with the cobalt, nickel, and molybdenum needed to make gasoline and diesel.

nortex97 said:

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torrid said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Teslag said:

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As usual Nortex a day late and a dollar short. Tesla has already secured sources of graphite outside of China last month and its supplier is currently building a production facility in Louisiana.

The most American car on the road even got more American because of this. Thanks for sharing Nortex.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tesla-supplier-syrah-expects-more-graphite-buys-ahead-china-export-ban-2023-10-26/#:~:text=Syrah%2C%20which%20has%20a%20supply,material%20(AAM)%20for%20batteries.

---

Elon helping Americans become even more independent from the ME and now even China.



Side note: I'm now starting to see Tesla charging stations at Love's Travel Stops. It's good to see Elon not only adding them at Buc'ees but also another huge gas station with Love's. Between both of those places and more and more coming online soon, it'll be that much easier for people in Texas with EVs to travel to the places they want.

---

I also see them at a lot of Sheetz stations. Of those three, the typical Tesla owner MIGHT set foot inside Buc-ee's. Depends upon how bad they have to pee. I know at Sheetz they all sit in their cars with the doors locked.

---

If you're driving for hours on I-35 and need to stop for 30-40 minutes to charge your EV I would imagine most need to piss.

The point isn't to make this into a Tesla/fan boy argument at all, but the more significant impact of China's control of anode/cathode materials required for EV's of all flavors. But I know some just want to be happy about some 20 percent share of some precious metal from Australia like it's a big win, because it's all a 'gotcha' game posting here to a certain group.

EV's writ large are a problem for America politically, and no brand is going to change that, imho, as the Chinese move on graphite exports shows.

Anyway, some sentiment in the market is generating a readiness to shift back away from the "EV future" per Stellantis' boss. Encouraging, as no auto CEO would have said such a thing a year or more ago.

---

And for the present, that's a smart move by that CEO. EVs are still a "Liberal" thing that conservatives tend to be more against. So politicians will use it to show their own sides they're "owning" the other. If EVs, even PHEVs, become more common to where buyers from both sides of the aisle are buying them, it'll no longer be in the realm of politics and business, just business. Think solar panels.

I live in about as maga part of Texas as you can get, and even the most staunch right-wing buddies of mine are putting up solar panels on their houses because it saves them money. I doubt they would have done that back in the 70s and 80s when solar panels were still a purely "Liberal" thing, but now they have no problem putting money before tribal politics.

The good thing is every day, there are more and more EVs on the road and more stations on the highways for them to charge while traveling. It's no longer something that's going to happen in the future - it's happening now.

As for just setting foot in a Buckeyes. I only do it while I'm gassing up, and at that I'm only using the restroom. If I don't need to piss I just gas up and continue on my way. That's not something unique to Ev drivers.

"right-wing buddies of mine are putting up solar panels on their houses because it saves them money."

Someone lied and they bought it hook line and sinker.

Quote:

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I live in about as maga part of Texas as you can get, and even the most staunch right-wing buddies of mine are putting up solar panels on their houses because it saves them money. I doubt they would have done that back in the 70s and 80s when solar panels were still a purely "Liberal" thing, but now they have no problem putting money before tribal politics.

The good thing is every day, there are more and more EVs on the road and more stations on the highways for them to charge while traveling. It's no longer something that's going to happen in the future - it's happening now.

---

Not sure where you live but solar panels are not good long term investments (it takes something like 15 years to 'break even' which is based on…lower interest rates), unless you are in an area subject to a lot of sun and a lot of electrical service disruption.

Second, no, it is not a good thing that there are more EV's on the road. It's a sign of CCP-leftist infiltration/power. EV's represent a decrease in energy independence and individual freedom, as well as environmental destruction (though conveniently this is offshored to the southern hemisphere/China often).

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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I live in about as maga part of Texas as you can get, and even the most staunch right-wing buddies of mine are putting up solar panels on their houses because it saves them money. I doubt they would have done that back in the 70s and 80s when solar panels were still a purely "Liberal" thing, but now they have no problem putting money before tribal politics.

The good thing is every day, there are more and more EVs on the road and more stations on the highways for them to charge while traveling. It's no longer something that's going to happen in the future - it's happening now.

---

Not sure where you live but solar panels are not good long term investments (it takes something like 15 years to 'break even' which is based on…lower interest rates), unless you are in an area subject to a lot of sun and a lot of electrical service disruption.

Second, no, it is not a good thing that there are more EV's on the road. It's a sign of CCP-leftist infiltration/power. EV's represent a decrease in energy independence and individual freedom, as well as environmental destruction (though conveniently this is offshored to the southern hemisphere/China often).

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Most of them are younger new home owners and they plan on passing their houses on to their kids when the time comes. It's more of a long term thing for them.

As for EVs, like when automobiles came on the scene, it'll be up to the consumers to decide their fate. They won't survive of its only liberals buying them, but like we've seen with TeslaAg, there's going to be conservatives who put politics aside for whatever reason to buy an EV.

No Spin Ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Most of them are younger new home owners and they plan on passing their houses on to their kids when the time comes. It's more of a long term thing for them.

As for EVs, like when automobiles came on the scene, it'll be up to the consumers to decide their fate. They won't survive of its only liberals buying them, but like we've seen with TeslaAg, there's going to be conservatives who put politics aside for whatever reason to buy an EV.

---

1) 30 year-old families planning to transfer their homes to their kids in 30-35 years from now? That is definitely planning and not the norm as most people really need that home equity when they down-size / move to retirement homes. Also they will flip those solar panels / roofs multiple times by then.

2) Sure EV's will be owned by a lot of conservatives at some point if things do not change. The government has decided EVs are the new winner. Tax rebates, benefits, etc. Makes the case almost a no-brainer. The fun part is when our grid is strained from 10s of millions more EVs charging during the day. Also, you think China is going to play nice to us w/ battery materials? Sort of like the middle east....

No Spin Ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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I live in about as maga part of Texas as you can get, and even the most staunch right-wing buddies of mine are putting up solar panels on their houses because it saves them money. I doubt they would have done that back in the 70s and 80s when solar panels were still a purely "Liberal" thing, but now they have no problem putting money before tribal politics.

The good thing is every day, there are more and more EVs on the road and more stations on the highways for them to charge while traveling. It's no longer something that's going to happen in the future - it's happening now.

---

Not sure where you live but solar panels are not good long term investments (it takes something like 15 years to 'break even' which is based on…lower interest rates), unless you are in an area subject to a lot of sun and a lot of electrical service disruption.

Second, no, it is not a good thing that there are more EV's on the road. It's a sign of CCP-leftist infiltration/power. EV's represent a decrease in energy independence and individual freedom, as well as environmental destruction (though conveniently this is offshored to the southern hemisphere/China often).

---

Most of them are younger new home owners and they plan on passing their houses on to their kids when the time comes. It's more of a long term thing for them.

As for EVs, like when automobiles came on the scene, it'll be up to the consumers to decide their fate. They won't survive of its only liberals buying them, but like we've seen with TeslaAg, there's going to be conservatives who put politics aside for whatever reason to buy an EV.

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Why would I need to put politics aside to buy an EV? Conservatives don't like fast 0-60 times?

Quote:

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Also, you think China is going to play nice to us w/ battery materials?

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Most of the material comes from Austraila. And we are increasing our refining and production of those materials here in the US. There's a reason Tesla is the most American car made.

I guess we wait for the increased refining and production. Until then, it still comes through China.

Around half of all lithium is mined in Australia, mainly in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of Western Australia. Most is shipped to China in a raw form called spodumene, which is about 6% lithium. Chinese companies refine it into lithium sulfate and then process it into the lithium hydroxide used to make cathodes for batteries.

Not going to mention the detail that China's refining is powered mostly by Coal and less clean energy so that is something that should have been previously considered and considered for the next several years....

How long until the US can be "energy independent" as it relates to battery sourcing?

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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Also, you think China is going to play nice to us w/ battery materials?

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Most of the material comes from Austraila. And we are increasing our refining and production of those materials here in the US. There's a reason Tesla is the most American car made.

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How much is refined, as a percentage of total, for battery usage in the US today, domestically? What is the projection of that percentage that will be in 2030? How many EV's will likely/probably be produced without Chinese-refined metals in their batteries in 2030?

Surely you and the other "American-made" EV fans would be knowledgeable about that, and not simply deflect, right?

I don't think anyone can predict the actual payback period. I did projections, and for me it is 10ish years. That assumes no electric rate increases, but I know they'll come. CPS requested a rate increase of just over 3% in the last couple years and is requesting 4.25% right now. They're the only electric option for us. I can only be assume that the rates will continue to go up.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I don't think anyone can predict the actual payback period. I did projections, and for me it is 10ish years. That assumes no electric rate increases, but I know they'll come. CPS requested a rate increase of just over 3% in the last couple years and is requesting 4.25% right now. They're the only electric option for us. I can only be assume that the rates will continue to go up.

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my pay back period is around 9 years.we use a lot of electricity in our 30+ year old house (2 AC's pool pump, computers, shop tools, garage mini-split, etc.) It's a financial no brainer investment that's going to pay off big time for me in retirement!

planoaggie123 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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Most of them are younger new home owners and they plan on passing their houses on to their kids when the time comes. It's more of a long term thing for them.

As for EVs, like when automobiles came on the scene, it'll be up to the consumers to decide their fate. They won't survive of its only liberals buying them, but like we've seen with TeslaAg, there's going to be conservatives who put politics aside for whatever reason to buy an EV.

---

1) 30 year-old families planning to transfer their homes to their kids in 30-35 years from now? That is definitely planning and not the norm as most people really need that home equity when they down-size / move to retirement homes. Also they will flip those solar panels / roofs multiple times by then.

2) Sure EV's will be owned by a lot of conservatives at some point if things do not change. The government has decided EVs are the new winner. Tax rebates, benefits, etc. Makes the case almost a no-brainer. The fun part is when our grid is strained from 10s of millions more EVs charging during the day. Also, you think China is going to play nice to us w/ battery materials? Sort of like the middle east....

---

Most people charge at night while they sleep and electricity demand is lowest. Many utilities are incentivizing it by offering lower rates to charge at night when marginal production costs are lower or if they can cut off EV charging if the grid is reaching limits.

The EV producers are innovating to eliminate the materials sourced from China like REEs and lithium. As posted earlier, Tesla is moving to US produced graphite and others will likely do the same.

Funny how the market works to solve problems.

Kansas Kid said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Most of them are younger new home owners and they plan on passing their houses on to their kids when the time comes. It's more of a long term thing for them.

As for EVs, like when automobiles came on the scene, it'll be up to the consumers to decide their fate. They won't survive of its only liberals buying them, but like we've seen with TeslaAg, there's going to be conservatives who put politics aside for whatever reason to buy an EV.

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1) 30 year-old families planning to transfer their homes to their kids in 30-35 years from now? That is definitely planning and not the norm as most people really need that home equity when they down-size / move to retirement homes. Also they will flip those solar panels / roofs multiple times by then.

2) Sure EV's will be owned by a lot of conservatives at some point if things do not change. The government has decided EVs are the new winner. Tax rebates, benefits, etc. Makes the case almost a no-brainer. The fun part is when our grid is strained from 10s of millions more EVs charging during the day. Also, you think China is going to play nice to us w/ battery materials? Sort of like the middle east....

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Most people charge at night while they sleep and electricity demand is lowest. Many utilities are incentivizing it by offering lower rates to charge at night when marginal production costs are lower or if they can cut off EV charging if the grid is reaching limits.

The EV producers are innovating to eliminate the materials sourced from China like REEs and lithium. As posted earlier, Tesla is moving to US produced graphite and others will likely do the same.

Funny how the market works to solve problems.

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So, define it for us ignorant rubes.

"How much is refined, as a percentage of total, for battery usage in the US today, domestically? What is the projection of that percentage that will be in 2030? How many EV's will likely/probably be produced without Chinese-refined metals in their batteries in 2030?

Surely you and the other "American-made" EV fans would be knowledgeable about that, and not simply deflect, right?"

How much as a percentage of metals in BEV batteries, when, will be not-refined from China, for Tesla's sold here, since you are much better informed than I on this?

This seems like an easy question to answer for the crowd who claim I am just wrong.

Adding millions of cars charging at night will quickly turn nights into "high demand" time as well. just something to consider.


One of the big issues is our grid being able to support. We have only a fraction of electric cars now vs what is planned and we have already seen our Texas grid struggle.

While I see the benefits / positives of electric cars....it is not all warm and fuzzy....we have Natural Gas and other clean energy options but we choose the one energy source that is currently dominated by China or other countries....and for us to mine these will create significant impact to those mining regions...maybe those magnet motors don't require any energy and will be the answer????

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I guess we wait for the increased refining and production.

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Tesla broke ground on a lithium production facility in Texas that is designed to supply 1 million EV's per year. It is happening now. Today.

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How much as a percentage of metals in BEV batteries, when, will be not-refined from China, for Tesla's sold here, since you are much better informed than I on this?

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Tesla's main graphite supply is sourced from an Austrailian company. They signed another deal this year for another company based in Africa. Tesla has moved and is continuously moving away from Chinese graphite.

planoaggie123 said:

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Adding millions of cars charging at night will quickly turn nights into "high demand" time as well. just something to consider.


One of the big issues is our grid being able to support. We have only a fraction of electric cars now vs what is planned and we have already seen our Texas grid struggle.

While I see the benefits / positives of electric cars....it is not all warm and fuzzy....we have Natural Gas and other clean energy options but we choose the one energy source that is currently dominated by China or other countries....and for us to mine these will create significant impact to those mining regions...maybe those magnet motors don't require any energy and will be the answer????

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The electricity drain is less than what an A/C unit does assuming you are charging over 8 hours. The Texas grid has issues independent of EVs because every new home and new manufacturer adds demand and Texas has made some dumb decisions on its grid such as not interconnecting with neighboring states to spread the load out.

What energy source are you saying we are using that is dominated by China? Most of the new capacity of electricity has been wind and nat gas which are US produced.

I just love how people that claim they are conservative don't think the market won't solve the issues.

Kansas Kid said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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Adding millions of cars charging at night will quickly turn nights into "high demand" time as well. just something to consider.


One of the big issues is our grid being able to support. We have only a fraction of electric cars now vs what is planned and we have already seen our Texas grid struggle.

While I see the benefits / positives of electric cars....it is not all warm and fuzzy....we have Natural Gas and other clean energy options but we choose the one energy source that is currently dominated by China or other countries....and for us to mine these will create significant impact to those mining regions...maybe those magnet motors don't require any energy and will be the answer????

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The electricity drain is less than what an A/C unit does assuming you are charging over 8 hours. The Texas grid has issues independent of EVs because every new home and new manufacturer adds demand and Texas has made some dumb decisions on its grid such as not interconnecting with neighboring states to spread the load out.

What energy source are you saying we are using that is dominated by China? Most of the new capacity of electricity has been wind and nat gas which are US produced.

I just love how people that claim they are conservative don't think the market won't solve the issues.

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So 'neither' of you have any idea when/if/what the percentage of components in Tesla or any other American market EV's are in their batteries vs. CCP-sourced/refined metals.

As I expected. Just marketing/hopium around 'well Tesla has a deal with an Australian company and opened a plant to refine some lithium in south Texas.' Let me know when you figure out some numbers.

Teslag said:

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How much as a percentage of metals in BEV batteries, when, will be not-refined from China, for Tesla's sold here, since you are much better informed than I on this?

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Tesla's main graphite supply is sourced from an Austrailian company. They signed another deal this year for another company based in Africa. Tesla has moved and is continuously moving away from Chinese graphite.

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Your statistical and engineering knowledge are again on display here. Thx!

RoyVal said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I don't think anyone can predict the actual payback period. I did projections, and for me it is 10ish years. That assumes no electric rate increases, but I know they'll come. CPS requested a rate increase of just over 3% in the last couple years and is requesting 4.25% right now. They're the only electric option for us. I can only be assume that the rates will continue to go up.

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my pay back period is around 9 years.we use a lot of electricity in our 30+ year old house (2 AC's pool pump, computers, shop tools, garage mini-split, etc.) It's a financial no brainer investment that's going to pay off big time for me in retirement!

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Big time!

planoaggie123 said:

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Adding millions of cars charging at night will quickly turn nights into "high demand" time as well. just something to consider.


One of the big issues is our grid being able to support. We have only a fraction of electric cars now vs what is planned and we have already seen our Texas grid struggle.

While I see the benefits / positives of electric cars....it is not all warm and fuzzy....we have Natural Gas and other clean energy options but we choose the one energy source that is currently dominated by China or other countries....and for us to mine these will create significant impact to those mining regions...maybe those magnet motors don't require any energy and will be the answer????

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What energy is used for electricity consumption that is controlled by China? Most new electricity is supplied by nat gas or wind which are US sources products. As for total demand, see the below chart and you will see most EVs use less or similar amounts as A/C, electric water heaters and electric heaters. The difference is that demand is spread over 12 months and can be curtailed during high demand periods while the other items are over 6-8 months with few options to limit the usage during peak periods.

Don't forget most commercial demand for electricity is during the day.

Why do people only worry about mining destruction from EVs? Are you worried about massive environmental problems from oil production such as the fracking waste water or massive releases like BP had in the USGC? No but that is because people have an axe to grind on EVs and ignore the issues with existing technology. EVs won't save the planet but they also won't destroy it either.