Teslag said:

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Now do Tesla

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I wouldn't say Elon's woke per se.

The Ford Escape was cannibalized by the Bronco Sport that is built on the same platform (along with the Maverick)

Kansas Kid said:

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hph6203 said:

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Not to mention you get to tell people you're saving the planet and watch their faces go red from anger/frustration. $16 a month for a priceless experience.

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I think most Tesla owners on Texags don't think they are saving the planet at all. Only the nut jobs in CA think that.

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I don't think they do either, but people who see people driving electric vehicles assume they do and driving the counterpoint nuts is valuable too.

20,000 cycle life battery claimed by Jeff Dahn's laboratory.

https://electricautonomy.ca/2023/08/29/tesla-jeff-dahn-group-battery-research/

Quote:

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Meanwhile, the NMC battery in the desk line-up is already famous as Dahn and Tesla's "million-mile battery." But, Metzger says, it's due for a major name change.

"This cell it has now 19,500 cycles [and counting]. Each cycle is 300 kilometres. So, if it were at 20,000 cycles it would be 6 million kilometres."

That is to say, 3,728,227.15 miles.

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hph6203 said:

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20,000 cycle life battery claimed by Jeff Dahn's laboratory.

https://electricautonomy.ca/2023/08/29/tesla-jeff-dahn-group-battery-research/

Quote:

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Meanwhile, the NMC battery in the desk line-up is already famous as Dahn and Tesla's "million-mile battery." But, Metzger says, it's due for a major name change.

"This cell it has now 19,500 cycles [and counting]. Each cycle is 300 kilometres. So, if it were at 20,000 cycles it would be 6 million kilometres."

That is to say, 3,728,227.15 miles.

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Batteries in a lab have been making incredible breakthroughs since before I was born. Meanwhile, a brand new Ford pickup with an EV power train has a likely $26-35K+ replacement cost t install when it's done, right after the warranty in something like 7 years, largely due to all the cooling/heating circuitry and massive possible litigation cost overhead.



But that Chinese battery the truck is built around is super awesome.

You could buy a good used pickup for that much.

For now.

But the government(s) are helping to make sure that stops in the future. Breakthroughs and stuff. Trust them. It will be safe, clean, and fabulous.

Yes, and battery technology in consumer products have also progressively improved. Is a 20,000 cycle life battery imminent in consumer products? No, but it shows an advancement in the technical limit of batteries.

Batteries currently have a cycle life of 2-3,000 for NCM batteries and 3,000 for LFP batteries and those numbers have progressively improved over the years. Same goes for energy density and charge rates. A battery failing early in an EV is not out of the question, but it's not the norm.

That's why electric vehicles are a technology worth pursuing, because the technological advancements come faster than combustion vehicles and they are combined with a more rapid drop in costs due to the novel nature of the technology. Resulting in a vehicle that is both cheaper to operate and cheaper to buy with less maintenance and fewer air pollutants.

hph6203 said:

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Yes, and battery technology in consumer products have also progressively improved. Is a 20,000 cycle life battery imminent in consumer products? No, but it shows an advancement in the technical limit of batteries.

Batteries currently have a cycle life of 2-3,000 for NCM batteries and 3,000 for LFP batteries and those numbers have progressively improved over the years. Same goes for energy density and charge rates. A battery failing early in an EV is not out of the question, but it's not the norm.

That's why electric vehicles are a technology worth pursuing, because the technological advancements come faster than combustion vehicles and they are combined with a more rapid drop in costs due to the novel nature of the technology. Resulting in a vehicle that is both cheaper to operate and cheaper to buy with less maintenance and fewer air pollutants.

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Fine, pursue it.

But it's being forced on the rest of us, dangerously, at the cost of our national interests, child labor, terrible environmental effects, and individual freedom/safety. And my iPad Pro is already down 6 percent in 20 minutes since unplugging it. Almost none of us can leave our phones unplugged for 2 days or more, and even fewer make sure not to charge it in compliance with recommendations for battery longevity. I've rarely gotten more than 36 months out of a top end battery for my ICE vehicles in Texas, no matter what Interstate etc. claim/state.

At 100K+ miles in a hot environment (such as Texas) there is a reason warranties end. There are many reasons I won't ever buy one, in other words, no matter the religious dedication to them some have.

If the market does the pursuing, that's great. If the govt does, it's not.

And I thought your thread about renewables losing 80% of their energy over transmission lines was bad.

The battery in your vehicle is (almost certainly) a lead-acid battery and bears little resemblance to the battery in an electric vehicle. It is a utilitarian object that requires minimal financial investment in replacing, and as such the engineers design it to be replaceable (and ultimately recyclable) extracting dollars from you for replacement. There is no intention of it lasting you a long time. I'm not sure what you in particular are doing to your batteries that forces you to cap out at 3 years as in 20+ years of driving I've replaced the battery in my vehicles maybe 4 times? Regardless, it's not even remotely the same thing as a battery in an electric vehicle.

Likewise, the battery in your iPad is not designed for long-term use, because the utility of an iPad, on the whole, degrades over time due to advancements in processing power leading developers to create more complex applications with more features degrading the performance of your iPad over time. Your iPad, whether the battery survives 8 years or not, is going to be an outdated piece of technology within 3 years. That leads the engineers to develop the product in a way that maximizes it's utility over those 3 years, rather than designing it to last 10+ years. It's also designed to be put in a backpack (and your phone in a pocket) so there's limited space for additional hardware to protect the batteries.

These are not the same thing and it's not a reasonable comparison.

nortex97 said:

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hph6203 said:

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Yes, and battery technology in consumer products have also progressively improved. Is a 20,000 cycle life battery imminent in consumer products? No, but it shows an advancement in the technical limit of batteries.

Batteries currently have a cycle life of 2-3,000 for NCM batteries and 3,000 for LFP batteries and those numbers have progressively improved over the years. Same goes for energy density and charge rates. A battery failing early in an EV is not out of the question, but it's not the norm.

That's why electric vehicles are a technology worth pursuing, because the technological advancements come faster than combustion vehicles and they are combined with a more rapid drop in costs due to the novel nature of the technology. Resulting in a vehicle that is both cheaper to operate and cheaper to buy with less maintenance and fewer air pollutants.

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Fine, pursue it.

But it's being forced on the rest of us, dangerously, at the cost of our national interests, child labor, terrible environmental effects, and individual freedom/safety. And my iPad Pro is already down 6 percent in 20 minutes since unplugging it. Almost none of us can leave our phones unplugged for 2 days or more, and even fewer make sure not to charge it in compliance with recommendations for battery longevity. I've rarely gotten more than 36 months out of a top end battery for my ICE vehicles in Texas, no matter what Interstate etc. claim/state.

At 100K+ miles in a hot environment (such as Texas) there is a reason warranties end. There are many reasons I won't ever buy one, in other words, no matter the religious dedication to them some have.

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Shhhh... Facts, common sense and logic is not allowed.

It's just.... Ignorance. Total lack of understanding of the technology and the systems that surround it. Y'all could start a club. You both are/were wrong about inflation too. He predicted mortgage rates would be 15% by now.

None of your ripostes are true, other than lead acid. Ice car battery chemistries have advanced significantly and relatedly to battery technology. The lithium battery in my two year old iPad also is connected to the sacrosanct ev battery tech advancements.

Your inability to comprehend the wet electrolyte advancements in battery technology and metallurgy over the past 30 or hundred years as connected doesn't surprise me any more than your ignorantly dismissive tone.

Have a good evening.

hph6203 said:

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It's just.... Ignorance. Total lack of understanding of the technology and the systems that surround it. Y'all could start a club. You both are/were wrong about inflation too. He predicted mortgage rates would be 15% by now.

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You don't have a clue about economics and you proved it in that thread. Your posts about EVs are nothing more than pollyanna nonsense.

I'm bumping that thread on the 13th so you can get a precursor of the repeat act on the 29th. You and Nortex can start a club. About being wrong about EVs and being wrong about inflation. He said that the fed rate had to exceed inflation in order for inflation to fall and that true inflation was 15% so we could expect 15% mortgage rates by the summer. Checking now and it looks like fall is fast approaching, and oh look at that, prime rate is in the 7's. Like I said they would be. Odd.

The battery in your iPad is designed for rapid utility and power output. This means that when you plug your iPad in it is designed to charge as rapidly as it can to 80% every single time it's plugged in, has limited thermal management embedded in it, and if used regularly is designed to go through a single charge and discharge cycle on a daily basis. This means that you can expect to get about 5 years out of the battery before it goes caput. That's not how an electric vehicle battery is designed and it's not how it's used.

The typical driver drives 14,000 miles a year. That's 38 miles per day. That's roughly 12% of an EV battery. That battery is then recharged to no more than 90% for NCM batteries (80% if you want to be protective) and goes through a single charge cycle roughly once every ~7 days or every 280 miles. The battery also is designed with thermal controls to ensure that the battery does not overheat. Every plug your phone into a high-wattage power supply so that you can charge it faster and when you pick it up it's hot. That's degrading the battery further.

The fact that the underlying technology is similar (but not the same) is not indicative that the longevity of the device is going to be the same. That's ignorance. It's like believing that a weedwhacker engine is going to last for as much use as a V6 in a Toyota.

Quote:

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The fact that the underlying technology is similar (but not the same) is not indicative that the longevity of the device is going to be the same. That's ignorance.

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You are projecting, again, among other logical reasoning fallacies.

Wow.

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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The fact that the underlying technology is similar (but not the same) is not indicative that the longevity of the device is going to be the same. That's ignorance.

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You are projecting, again, among other logical reasoning fallacies.

Wow.

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Number of charge cycles impacts the longevity of the product. An iPhone/iPad experiences daily charge cycles, an EV experiences a charge cycle roughly once every week based on an average driver. This extends the useful life (time) of the product.

Thermal fluctuations negatively impact battery longevity. An iPad is only somewhat protected from high temperatures (i.e. the device will shut off if it gets too hot), but there is no mechanism in the iPad to make sure that it maintains a set temperature. If you leave an iPad in a 150-degree car it will approach 150 degrees. If you leave an iPad in -32 degree car it will approach 32 degrees. You leave an EV parked in a parking lot in the sun it has thermal management systems to ensure the upper and lower ranges are bounded, utilizing a heat pump to maintain temperatures. This extends the useful life of the product.

The rate of charge of a battery negatively impacts the longevity of the battery. A phone battery will charge to 80% within 2 hours even on a slow charger, and to 80% in 40 minutes on a fast charger. It takes an EV a minimum of 8 hours to charge on a home charger, and even when going to a fast charger the thermal management system kicks in to ensure optimal temperatures are maintained.

Charging to 100% negatively impacts the longevity of NCM battery (the battery in your phone, iPad and in long range Tesla's), something routinely done with consumer electronics (your iPad) and rarely done with an electric vehicle. Superchargers by default stop at 80%, most EV owners set their home charger limit to 80-90%.

The number of charge cycles a battery gets in a lab is based upon consistent testing where the thermals are maintained to set temperatures and the rate of charge is consistent across tests. Just because a battery gets 2000 charge cycles in a lab does not mean that it will get 2000 charge cycles in the real world, and iPhone/iPad batteries are abused far more than EV batteries, because the primary utility of an iPad/iPhone degrades with time by virtue of it having an older processor/smaller hard drive/worse screen and the consumer is conditioned to want a new iPhone every 2 years and a new iPad every 4 years. The auto consumer is conditioned to want a new car every ~7 years, and has the expectation that the car will last for 15-20 years.


All that adds up to either you're being ignorant in saying they're the same, or you know they aren't and won't admit it, because the majority of the people reading this thread don't and you can fool them into thinking you're honest.


There are problems with electric vehicles. It is not the battery longevity or the cost of the battery, though there will be improvements there. The biggest struggle for electric vehicle adoption is the charging infrastructure and the grid resiliency to support it. Does that mean we should abandon pursuing electric vehicles? No. Our grid needs upgrading whether we adopt electric vehicles or not, so we might as well build a robust one. I am not conservation-minded, we should be utilizing as much energy as we possibly can.

hph6203 said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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The fact that the underlying technology is similar (but not the same) is not indicative that the longevity of the device is going to be the same. That's ignorance.

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You are projecting, again, among other logical reasoning fallacies.

Wow.

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Number of charge cycles impacts the longevity of the product. An iPhone/iPad experiences daily charge cycles, an EV experiences a charge cycle roughly once every week based on an average driver. This extends the useful life (time) of the product.

Thermal fluctuations negatively impact battery longevity. An iPad is only somewhat protected from high temperatures (i.e. the device will shut off if it gets too hot), but there is no mechanism in the iPad to make sure that it maintains a set temperature. If you leave an iPad in a 150-degree car it will approach 150 degrees. If you leave an iPad in -32 degree car it will approach 32 degrees. You leave an EV parked in a parking lot in the sun it has thermal management systems to ensure the upper and lower ranges are bounded, utilizing a heat pump to maintain temperatures. This extends the useful life of the product.

The rate of charge of a battery negatively impacts the longevity of the battery. A phone battery will charge to 80% within 2 hours even on a slow charger, and to 80% in 40 minutes on a fast charger. It takes an EV a minimum of 8 hours to charge on a home charger, and even when going to a fast charger the thermal management system kicks in to ensure optimal temperatures are maintained.

Charging to 100% negatively impacts the longevity of NCM battery (the battery in your phone, iPad and in long range Tesla's), something routinely done with consumer electronics (your iPad) and rarely done with an electric vehicle. Superchargers by default stop at 80%, most EV owners set their home charger limit to 80-90%.

The number of charge cycles a battery gets in a lab is based upon consistent testing where the thermals are maintained to set temperatures and the rate of charge is consistent across tests. Just because a battery gets 2000 charge cycles in a lab does not mean that it will get 2000 charge cycles in the real world, and iPhone/iPad batteries are abused far more than EV batteries, because the primary utility of an iPad/iPhone degrades with time by virtue of it having an older processor/smaller hard drive/worse screen and the consumer is conditioned to want a new iPhone every 2 years and a new iPad every 4 years. The auto consumer is conditioned to want a new car every ~7 years, and has the expectation that the car will last for 15-20 years.


All that adds up to either you're being ignorant in saying they're the same, or you know they aren't and won't admit it, because the majority of the people reading this thread don't and you can fool them into thinking you're honest.


There are problems with electric vehicles. It is not the battery longevity or the cost of the battery, though there will be improvements there. The biggest struggle for electric vehicle adoption is the charging infrastructure and the grid resiliency to support it. Does that mean we should abandon pursuing electric vehicles? No. Our grid needs upgrading whether we adopt electric vehicles or not, so we might as well build a robust one. I am not conservation-minded, we should be utilizing as much energy as we possibly can.

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Your ignorance is only compounded by your arrogance and anger. Adding extraneous/irrelevant data points doesn't make your diatribe any more on point. The Ford Lightning battery warranty was discussed in the video, and costs to replace it, which I posted.

Mortgage rates are just fine, LOL.

The current NMC batteries are rated for ~3,000 cycles, we have a vendor that we use them for projects since they stock complete packs so we don't have to wait months for them. They said it will be some years before they have the higher rated cycle ones tested and released.

Lithium titanate (LTO) have cycles of 10k-30k cycles depending on the charge/discharge rate and are currently available. Their issue is power density as they can output over 10c (2-5x what lithium ion can) but are not nearly as power dense. We use these on high discharge applications like oilfield and power spikes. LTO batteries are more expensive as well so they are not ideal in automotive applications.

Well obviously the engineers designing those have no idea how to design a battery for a car. Totally, completely unrelated. Only ignorant rubes like me would think otherwise.

I was finishing up my lawn yesterday and never realized until yesterday that I always take the batteries out of my mower and weed eater when I am done.

You understand that 3,000 cycle life suggests a battery longevity of nearly a million miles right? Which is a counter argument to your ignorance. One cycle of an EV battery is roughly 300 miles and that range is increasing.

Ford's Powertrain warranty on their gas cars is 5 years 60,000 miles. The battery and drive unit warranty on a Tesla is 8 years 120,000 miles. Are you suggesting that a Ford is expected to die after only 60,000 miles?

Will an EV last a million miles? No, other things around the vehicle will break before it gets to a million miles and by the time it does the technology surrounding it will be so far superior and in relative terms cheap to buy that people will discard it, much like an iPhone can be used for more than 4 years and yet the average person only uses it that long (warrantied for only 1 year).

hph6203 said:

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You understand that 3,000 cycle life suggests a battery longevity of nearly a million miles right? Which is a counter argument to your ignorance. One cycle of an EV battery is roughly 300 miles and that range is increasing.

Ford's Powertrain warranty on their gas cars is 5 years 60,000 miles. The battery and drive unit warranty on a Tesla is 8 years 120,000 miles. Are you suggesting that a Ford is expected to die after only 60,000 miles?

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Your ability to wrongly impute what I am suggesting or have stated is rivalled by only one other poster.

Check out the video above. Or, you can look up the ford warranty directly on your own, it's probably accessible pretty easily, right?

nortex97 said:

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hph6203 said:

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You understand that 3,000 cycle life suggests a battery longevity of nearly a million miles right? Which is a counter argument to your ignorance. One cycle of an EV battery is roughly 300 miles and that range is increasing.

Ford's Powertrain warranty on their gas cars is 5 years 60,000 miles. The battery and drive unit warranty on a Tesla is 8 years 120,000 miles. Are you suggesting that a Ford is expected to die after only 60,000 miles?

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Your ability to wrongly impute what I am suggesting or have stated is rivalled by only one other poster.

Check out the video above. Or, you can look up the ford warranty directly on your own, it's probably accessible pretty easily, right?

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I checked out the video since you keep referring to it. The Ford warranty for the battery is 8 years and 100,000 miles. But the guy in the video in no way suggests that the battery is simply going to stop working at that time. The powertrain warranty on the regular F150 is 36,000 miles. Does the engine just seize at that point?

The guy in the video suggests that at that 100,000 mile point, a vehicle that started with a 300 mile range may be left with 250 miles of range. Okay, I'd say that might be right. So? The battery might cost $35,000 to replace, but that might be after 250,000 or 300,000 miles. How many ICE vehicles are still on the road after that many miles? It's a complete non issue to me. I have one EV and two ICE vehicles. I fully expect the EV to outlast the ICE vehicles and be less hassle to own.

The hotter a battery gets the better it performs but it cost cycles. I think all of the car battery packs are liquid cooled so they will never get close to dangerous levels but an EV driving up north will last longer than one from Texas or Arizona. Doubt for most people it will be noticeable but it will happen

EV miles is a calculation based off of a few factors like cycles and heat. ICE engines are based more on mileage. We will find out in a decade if sticking with mileage was the best measure of EV life or if we should have used something like cycles.

We probably made the mistake of using years for off-road equipment like O&G. They operate 24/7 and now that they don't have an engine or hydraulic system to service they never get pulled off site. We have users that have 1600 cycles in the first year or usage. When comparing that to an ICE/hydraulic setup they are using their equipment 3-4 times more per year.

Yes and the cooling systems are…not perfect. Some cells will obviously have more/earlier wear/degradation than others.

Lucky for me I don't live in Texas or Arizona then. My point is the religious fervor that convinces people that EV battery packs will have to be replaced every 5 years or so is simply not born out by the data. And the guy in the video that was posted in no way suggests that they will.

slaughtr said:

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nortex97 said:

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hph6203 said:

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You understand that 3,000 cycle life suggests a battery longevity of nearly a million miles right? Which is a counter argument to your ignorance. One cycle of an EV battery is roughly 300 miles and that range is increasing.

Ford's Powertrain warranty on their gas cars is 5 years 60,000 miles. The battery and drive unit warranty on a Tesla is 8 years 120,000 miles. Are you suggesting that a Ford is expected to die after only 60,000 miles?

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Your ability to wrongly impute what I am suggesting or have stated is rivalled by only one other poster.

Check out the video above. Or, you can look up the ford warranty directly on your own, it's probably accessible pretty easily, right?

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I checked out the video since you keep referring to it. The Ford warranty for the battery is 8 years and 100,000 miles. But the guy in the video in no way suggests that the battery is simply going to stop working at that time. The powertrain warranty on the regular F150 is 36,000 miles. Does the engine just seize at that point?

The guy in the video suggests that at that 100,000 mile point, a vehicle that started with a 300 mile range may be left with 250 miles of range. Okay, I'd say that might be right. So? The battery might cost $35,000 to replace, but that might be after 250,000 or 300,000 miles. How many ICE vehicles are still on the road after that many miles? It's a complete non issue to me. I have one EV and two ICE vehicles. I fully expect the EV to outlast the ICE vehicles and be less hassle to own.

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The batteries are tested for bad cells. Bad cells may exist in one or more modules. The Lightning extended range battery consists of nine modules. Bad cells identified are replaced by the module. I guess if I still like my truck and considering what it cost, I'd pay the 30 grand for the battery. It is cheaper than a new truck ICE or otherwise. I don't have to borrow money to pay for the repair.

I have not researched but on most battery packs if a single cell goes back you have to replace the entire pack, at least until we have companies that can service the packs (huge market for this).

I don't think most people realize either that if a pack is rated for 2,000 cycles that is full charge/discharge which no BMS allows. Likely the packs will last twice that if the BMS is programmed properly

My Tesla at 80K miles. Range dropped about 10% after about 25K and remains the same. This confirms what I see on youtube and people go over 200K with similar range. I have never had an ice car go over 125K b/c something major breaks down and I just get a new one. So from my standpoint, if I can get over 150K, I will be well ahead and no reason to think otherwise.

Also, innovation/technology will continue to advance. We will get to higher range, lower degradation, faster charging, more charging sites throughout the US in the next 5 yrs. So any range anxiety now will be solved within the next 5yrs if they keep their 30% Supercharger stall installations.

If Tesla can ever figure out a 500+ range and 500+ KW charging, it will be game over for ICE as this would essentially be equivalent to gas car/refueling.

I think for the next 5-10 years companies like Tesla will be facing the battle of increasing charge rate vs cycles, what is the happy medium? I know there are a lot of battery companies out there playing with different materials

Real world data on Model S/X battery vs miles driven. Do some batteries fail and need replaced, absolutely just like some ICE fail and need to be replaced.

Nortex will ignore this data and insult those that disagree with him and say that he knows best with little data to support his position other than the cost of a new Ford battery.

I try to avoid discussing Tesla's specifically because their fans are very emotional about any doubt or criticism.