So WW3 is about to commence, and even if it doesn't we have the entire World, mostly, cutting off the Russian economy; significantly, 14% of the Worlds oil supply. It doesn't look like Ukraine and Russia can find common ground.

Inflation is here, feds raise rates, oil supply down significantly. Demand is up with Covid becoming a fart in the wind.

I see Iran and Venezuela in the wings for oil supply, but will that really play out as expected considering the foreign policy blunder / political fallout behind such support?

So what am I missing in regards to the stock market and oil prices? Why aren't stocks tanking and why isn't oil higher than the spike to $130 just a week ago?

Russia impact won't be actually felt on supply side until mid April. If it's May the war still going and OPEC unwilling to increase production $130 will be the floor.

Premium said:

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So what am I missing in regards to the stock market and oil prices? Why aren't stocks tanking and why isn't oil higher than the spike to $130 just a week ago?

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our markets are no longer efficient and are disconnected from reality.

As far as the stock market and other parts of the economy, I think the part you are missing is the political part. Even in a mid-term election year, there will be an attempt to apply band aids and kick the can down the road as much as possible until after the election cycle. It's an unfortunate effect of our regular and peaceful change of power, and has been magnified by 401k and other self-directed investment vehicles replacing pensions for a majority of Americans.

I'm finally back to even for the year. Hats off to Berkshire for offsetting some losses.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Staff, not to question moderation, but that was an old GB joke. I think it was simply a light hearted response and no meant to be anything more than that.

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Now I'm interested to know what he said… P.M. if you don't mind

Gaw617 said:

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Russia impact won't be actually felt on supply side until mid April. If it's May the war still going and OPEC unwilling to increase production $130 will be the floor.

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What is the floor of the DOW?

Premium said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Staff, not to question moderation, but that was an old GB joke. I think it was simply a light hearted response and no meant to be anything more than that.

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Now I'm interested to know what he said… P.M. if you don't mind

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Same.

Edit to avoid the shadow delete and ban.

Bobaloo said:

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I'm finally back to even for the year. Hats off to Berkshire for offsetting some losses.

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Humble brag alert??

C@LAg said:

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Credible Source said:

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Oh come on, that's the oldest joke on Texags. We're banning people for that?

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hell even the snowflake liberals promote masturbation.

it is one of the few things people across the aisle agree upon..

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A new meaning for "reaching across the aisle ".

The simple answer is that there is nowhere else to invest right now. If you sell stock you have to do SOMETHING with the cash because otherwise you are losing money to inflation. The fed isn't raising rates enough to move the needle and with huge increases in money supply over the last two years, there really is nowhere else for that money to go, other than real estate. And we all know what's happened in that sector. That's my 2 cents anyways.

I should be studying 11 said:

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The simple answer is that there is nowhere else to invest right now. If you sell stock you have to do SOMETHING with the cash because otherwise you are losing money to inflation. The fed isn't raising rates enough to move the needle and with huge increases in money supply over the last two years, there really is nowhere else for that money to go, other than real estate. And we all know what's happened in that sector. That's my 2 cents anyways.

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I knew this but it seemed to slip my thoughts - I agree. Still unsure about why oil isn't sky high though

That's a more complicated question. For oil futures, the volumes trade are much greater than the represented volumes of oil produced and used. So there is more to oil prices than a simple supply and demand. From the beginning of February to March 7, there was a 40% increase in WTI figures prices. That's a massive increase in just over a month. When the initial explosive price move ended, there was a lot of profit taking and now we're seeing a run back up. If nothing changes I think we'll see this continue to run up mow. Biden bending the knee to Iran may have been enough to keep us from going much higher than that March peak. Maybe we'll have a regime change in Russia and their oil will be back in favor.

Pick 10 companies and look up their earnings over the past 4 years (or even 4 quarters). Look for the trend and report back.

Different forums different users different rules.

Yep.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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That's a more complicated question. For oil futures, the volumes trade are much greater than the represented volumes of oil produced and used. So there is more to oil prices than a simple supply and demand. From the beginning of February to March 7, there was a 40% increase in WTI figures prices. That's a massive increase in just over a month. When the initial explosive price move ended, there was a lot of profit taking and now we're seeing a run back up. If nothing changes I think we'll see this continue to run up mow. Biden bending the knee to Iran may have been enough to keep us from going much higher than that March peak. Maybe we'll have a regime change in Russia and their oil will be back in favor.

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China locking down due to Covid, thereby reducing world demand, seems to have reduced prices a bit for the last couple weeks. We'll see how long that lasts.

Excellent

Every month, billions, of not trillions of dollars get pumped into stocks thru 401K's. Supply and demand dictates that until that stops, there will always be buying pressure.

When the dip**** libs decide to start taxing 401k's, then the market is going to seriously tank for a long period of time. Until then, buy the dips.

Been my motto for 40 years. Hasn't failed me.

YET. :-)