***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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9:02a, 10/13/26
AG
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9:04a, 10/13/26
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nortex97
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9:51a, 10/13/26
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Rossticus
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:11a, 10/13/26
A summary for those who don't want to pay WaPo (I'm certainly not). It's a nice deal that would be beneficial for both sides but I'd be shocked if Russia accepted it with the hard security guarantees and cessation along current lines since they've repeatedly shot those down as nonstarters. If it's coming from the euros then you know it's probably been blessed by Kyiv. So, Putin and his hardliners would remain the hurdle.

The publication says five key points are being discussed:

Cessation of hostilities along the current frontline, with potential territorial concessions by the parties.

Security guarantees for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5.

The reconstruction of Ukraine and compensation for those affected.

An energy agreement between Ukraine, Russia, and Europe allowing the resumption of Russian oil and gas supplies.

Possible lifting of sanctions against Russia.

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PJYoung
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In reply to BlackGold • 11:29a, 10/13/26
AG
BlackGold said:
PJYoung said:
lol now that is a new low.

Incredible

Quote:
The Trump Administration took the side of Putin, helping their war crimes to maximize civilian casualties



Give me break… Trump and the admin, along with the CIA, have been keeping Ukraine in the fight with funding, weapons and intel. Ukraine would be toast without America's help and they wouldn't be striking deep into Russia against critical infrastructure without CIA approval.

And now they've changed their minds for some reason (your guess is as good as mine but it SEEMS to be about enriching those in power to me).

That is the fact that I was commenting on.
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Rossticus
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12:25p, 10/13/26
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12:26p, 10/13/26
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12:27p, 10/13/26
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Rossticus
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12:27p, 10/13/26
Looks like some scrambling and backtracking. Difficult to know what happened here but even if the events of yesterday were intentional on our part (sending a messsge?) there appears to have been a course correction.

We'll see if there are repeats of this moving forward or not, I suppose, as well as whether there are any changes to Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries.



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Rossticus
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In reply to ErnestEndeavor • 12:45p, 10/13/26
ErnestEndeavor said:
Just saw a video from Ryan McBeth throwing some cold water on the claims. The chart showing a decline in Russian bot traffic was related to typical bots that do things like web crawling for search engines, etc. It was not showing anything related to social media propaganda bots.


It's purely correlational, but still.

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sclaff
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:57p, 10/13/26
AG
Rossticus said:
ErnestEndeavor said:
Just saw a video from Ryan McBeth throwing some cold water on the claims. The chart showing a decline in Russian bot traffic was related to typical bots that do things like web crawling for search engines, etc. It was not showing anything related to social media propaganda bots.


It's purely correlational, but still.



The remaining 30% are Qataris and my cousin in the hills of north Georgia
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Waffledynamics
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2:29p, 10/13/26
AG


Quote:
During the last 4 months, Russia made a slow but steady progress in the direction of Dobropilla

Russian forces continue to advance and capture villages and small towns south of Dobropilla. Shevchenko and Bilytske fell, Russian forces are now attacking Dobropilla from the south and the east.

The battle for the city may start in the next few weeks/months and could last very long. Thanks to the New Donbas Line, part of the offensive to attack the city from the east and north is currently stopped. We should remember how much manpower Russia is using in this direction. We are talking about 3 armies, which are suffering important losses but are getting a big chunk of the manpower reserves right now, which is why multiple other directions are suffering from manpower issues.

Map : @Deepstate_UA
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Waffledynamics
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3:14p, 10/13/26
AG
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Waffledynamics
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3:17p, 10/13/26
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3:26p, 10/13/26
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Quote:
Zelensky says Russia's ballistic strike on Kyiv targeted CHP-4, one of the capital's main energy facilities, and scored a hit. A residential building was also damaged and caught fire. He says Ukraine again received no launch warning from partners, with the missiles detected only on approach.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:32p, 10/13/26
In this case it looks like either Ukraine knows they're not recieving intel and everyone but Z is trying to avoid the risk of alienating the admin by calling them out or the US is lying to Ukraine about what we are continuing to provide them. I find it a little hard to believe that this coincidentally happened in back to back nights because of our previously claimed weather interference. We'll see if this continues.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:54p, 10/13/26
AG
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.
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txags92
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 4:01p, 10/13/26
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.

If I were Z, I would hit every diesel tank and production unit I could reach in Russia and then just deny that they were targeting energy facilities. Everybody else in the US admin and Russia seems fine with just flat out lying, so why shouldn't Ukraine do it too?
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agent-maroon
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In reply to txags92 • 4:28p, 10/13/26
AG
txags92 said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.

If I were Z, I would hit every diesel tank and production unit I could reach in Russia and then just deny that they were targeting energy facilities. Everybody else in the US admin and Russia seems fine with just flat out lying, so why shouldn't Ukraine do it too?

How do you say "Oopsies" in Ukranian?
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USAFAg
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In reply to agent-maroon • 4:29p, 10/13/26
AG
agent-maroon said:
txags92 said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.

If I were Z, I would hit every diesel tank and production unit I could reach in Russia and then just deny that they were targeting energy facilities. Everybody else in the US admin and Russia seems fine with just flat out lying, so why shouldn't Ukraine do it too?

How do you say "Oopsies" in Ukranian?

!! Pronounced (oy) This is the standard, traditional Ukrainian exclamation used when you make a small mistake, drop something, or experience a minor accident. For example: "! " (Oops! I forgot my keys)

Huh...site won't reproduce the Ukrainian word....O(with backwards N with a small umlaut like V above the N)

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
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Waffledynamics
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8:48p, 10/13/26
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Waffledynamics
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9:02p, 10/13/26
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Posting this because it is not true and is a mistake. The fire has been going since October 10th.



Quote:
Ukraine strikes a Russian refinery in Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov Oblast) once again tonight, particularly targeting the fuel depots.

For those who will bring up Trump's ceasefire, let's just recall that Russia struck the Kharkiv -5 and Kyiv -4 thermal power plants these past two days.

-> As winter approaches, Ukrainian civilians are already short on electricity...

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Rossticus
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9:15p, 10/13/26
Kasparov sees it.



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Rossticus
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9:16p, 10/13/26
I think he's probably right.

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Rossticus
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9:18p, 10/13/26
Russia has zero respect for Trump or the US. Zero idea why we're hell bent on courting them.

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JFABNRGR
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10:21p, 10/13/26
AG
Time for a tactical post.

The ole 1-2 punch. Not sure what that second was but for its size, sure seemed excessive. P+M=E

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Sq 17
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:33p, 10/13/26
We are courting them because Oligarchs Like doing Business with other Oligarchs
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Casual Cynic
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10:55p, 10/13/26
No matter how many fuel depots the Ukrainians blow up; it doesn't really change the strategic picture overall. The Russians aren't giving back the land they took.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 11:22p, 10/13/26
AG
Casual Cynic said:
No matter how many fuel depots the Ukrainians blow up; it doesn't really change the strategic picture overall. The Russians aren't giving back the land they took.


The Ukes have taken back about 1000km2 not alot but it is something and the orcs have paid dearly in souls lost beyond the O&G strikes, which are strategic otherwise putin wouldn't be dependent on trump.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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txags92
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 11:22p, 10/13/26
AG
Casual Cynic said:
No matter how many fuel depots the Ukrainians blow up; it doesn't really change the strategic picture overall. The Russians aren't giving back the land they took.

The Russians have given up more than they have taken so far this year. And every day Ukraine still exists as a country is a victory for them.
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Sq 17
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 11:45p, 10/13/26
Putin isn't giving any land back and it is likely Putin survives this foreign policy nightmare BUT
When this started no one thought Zelensky and Ukraine would still be standing 5 years later.

Maybe no diesel in Moscow and St. Petersburg this winter might hasten Putin's end
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nortex97
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6:59a, 10/14/26
AG

Some 'confusion' I guess.
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TacosaurusRex
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In reply to txags92 • 8:48a, 10/14/26
txags92 said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.

If I were Z, I would hit every diesel tank and production unit I could reach in Russia and then just deny that they were targeting energy facilities. Everybody else in the US admin and Russia seems fine with just flat out lying, so why shouldn't Ukraine do it too?

And that would be the end of your country. You don't get to make those decisions when you have your begging hands out. They complained about not getting intelligence data for two nights? Maybe those analyst get sent home a little early the rest of this week and catch up with their families.

ETA: To be clear Russia is absolutely committing war crimes, but I am not willing to put anyone's interest over our own. We are there for support and the only words we should hear back are thank you and what can we help you with now?
"If you are reading this, I have passed on from this world — not as big a deal for you as it was for me."
T. Boone Pickens
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 8:56a, 10/14/26
AG
Casual Cynic said:
No matter how many fuel depots the Ukrainians blow up; it doesn't really change the strategic picture overall. The Russians aren't giving back the land they took.

You and the other casual drivebys on this thread always fail to mention that the strategic pictures has changed multiple times since the war started. Almost all of them initiated by the Ukrainians and to the benefit of them. I think it may be all of them but leaving myself open for argument there. Russia giving back land is NOT a strategic position and never has been. More like a hope for the peace table which other strategic goals help shape and is an altogether different topic.

Wars of this nature don't just have binary switches where you enact something and a macro level yes/no outcome pops out. You have to shape the battlefield through a multitude of actions and decisions whose effects then trickle outward and influence other actions and decisions. Blowing up fuel sources isn't going to stop Russia. Blowing up fuel sources will help stop Russia though.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to TacosaurusRex • 9:11a, 10/14/26
AG
TacosaurusRex said:
txags92 said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
Just keep hitting Russian energy and play dumb if that's how Trump wants to play it.

If I were Z, I would hit every diesel tank and production unit I could reach in Russia and then just deny that they were targeting energy facilities. Everybody else in the US admin and Russia seems fine with just flat out lying, so why shouldn't Ukraine do it too?

And that would be the end of your country. You don't get to make those decisions when you have your begging hands out. They complained about not getting intelligence data for two nights? Maybe those analyst get sent home a little early the rest of this week and catch up with their families.

ETA: To be clear Russia is absolutely committing war crimes, but I am not willing to put anyone's interest over our own. We are there for support and the only words we should hear back are thank you and what can we help you with now?

And if that support and the "help" we ask for and mutually opposed to each other and are just meaningless political shenanigans/games by our admin (multiple admins to be fair), what then? Just let your people be played like puppets while they die, as you admit, to actual war crimes? Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. The long range strikes is one of the best and most effective ways they have to strike back at Russia, the Russia that is *checks notes* still invading and pillaging your country and they should just stop because Trump ****ed up in the ME? When the Trump administration has all but washed their hands of the situation since day one of his second term?

Our support has plummeted off a cliff by the way. Pretty much the only thing left IS the intel sharing which doesn't cost us much. We are already going to collect that data regardless, so no real financial overhead there and the man and equipment hours are used as check hours and experience gains, which again, we need anyways. Oh and we allow some weapons sales to them. That's the two major ones right there.

Believe it or not, I understand your position and don't begrudge you it at all. Just think it is shortsighted in the longterm. Well, near and mid term too be honest. These current decisions by our admin (Trump) I think grasping at straws of distraction from his very real problem in Iran and the mid terms mixed with ungodly amounts of pettiness. The Ukes, as always, are the ones who will suffer though with their hands tied behind their backs. Again.
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