Here they come.

[There you go. There is a warning in the OP about derailing or trolling on this thread. -Staff]

74OA said:

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Good discussion of the complexities surrounding Trump's offer of continued US aid in exchange for Ukrainian mineral resources, followed by updates from the fighting front.

"While Ukraine has trillions of dollars worth of minerals, including lithium and titanium, any such deal would have to overcome the fact that a lot of those resources exist in territory captured by Russia or too close to the front lines to mine."

SITREP

Apparently, crime really does pay. "Russia has been abetted in its theft by geography. A sizeable share of Ukraine's mineral wealth is concentrated east of the Dnipro River. One estimate holds that Russia has captured 33 percent of Ukraine's critical raw materials deposits since 2014. A back-of-the-envelope calculation puts the value of this at $5 to $8 trillion. Among Kyiv's stolen assets are over 10 major mineral sites, including one of the lithium sites eyed by European Lithium and the massive rare earth metals deposit at Novopoltavske. Including stolen fossil fuel deposits, the value of Russian conquests currently exceed $12 trillion."

ROBBERY

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Update. Sounds like Zelensky is willing to make a deal to continue aid. Putin is furious as one of the reasons he invaded was to get control of all of Ukraine's resources for Russia.

TALKS

The problem for Zelensky is that the minerals he is offering Trump are largely under Russian control.

The highest concentration of rare earth minerals are in the Donbas region.



Zelensky will be able to trade land in the Kursk region for other land held by Russia but Ukraine is probably going to want to secure the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is the largest power plant in Europe.

Check the three articles I linked immediately above. They go into that particular aspect of the potential deal in some detail.

Russia is currently in control of about a third of Ukraine's critical resources. Even if Kiev can't get any of that back with continued US/EU aid, it still leaves a lot to offer Trump.

...but, but, but NATO expansion and other Bologna! /s

Yeah, this has been a money grab from the get go.

Anyone thinking otherwise is fooling themselves.

Your map doesn't show rare earth deposits. Ukraine's control of rare earths are highlighted in blue and most are in the west. Russia's control in red. Ukraine has plenty under control for a deal.

What do you expect the lifespan of these nets to be?

From Bakhmut to Chasiv-Yar, Russia is constructing a special corridor for moving equipment, protected from FPV drones by dense netting. According to Russian reports, approximately 2 kilometers of the corridor is already complete. pic.twitter.com/8PQaCdg48J

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 9, 2025

"Lowpass" performed by the Ukrainian F-16. The aircraft carries a full set of air-to-air missiles, AIM-120 and AIM-9. The aircraft also has 2 additional 370-gallon (~1400 liters) fuel tanks. The AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasure system is installed on the central point of the… pic.twitter.com/PEOtm7OHVi

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2025

sclaff said:

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"Lowpass" performed by the Ukrainian F-16. The aircraft carries a full set of air-to-air missiles, AIM-120 and AIM-9. The aircraft also has 2 additional 370-gallon (~1400 liters) fuel tanks. The AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasure system is installed on the central point of the… pic.twitter.com/PEOtm7OHVi

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 9, 2025

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Not trying to derail but the F16 has been an absolute badass for quite some time.

Looks like a good target for one of the thermite drones

At what point do Russian generals say, "Him or us?"

Time for them to make Putin fly out of a window.

Ukraine reveals secret underground cruise missile plant.

"The Peklo missile, capable of striking targets up to 700 kilometers away at a speed of 700 km/h, first became publicly known in December 2024 when Zelensky handed over an initial batch to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Since then, it has demonstrated its effectiveness in real combat, targeting and disabling key Russian military and oil infrastructure facilities."

PEKLO

Domestic production of long-range kamikaze drones is surging, too.

LIUTYI

74OA said:

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Check the three articles I linked immediately above. They go into that particular aspect of the potential deal in some detail.

Russia is currently in control of about a third of Ukraine's critical resources. Even if Kiev can't get any of that back with continued US/EU aid, it still leaves a lot to offer Trump.

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I really don't see how this is even possible

if the Ukrainians were able to access rare earth minerals-

why have they been having to beg the Euros and Americans to give them free weapons the last 3 years?

74OA said:

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LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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Check the three articles I linked immediately above. They go into that particular aspect of the potential deal in some detail.

Russia is currently in control of about a third of Ukraine's critical resources. Even if Kiev can't get any of that back with continued US/EU aid, it still leaves a lot to offer Trump.

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I really don't see how this is even possible

if the Ukrainians were able to access rare earth minerals-

why have they been having to beg the Euros and Americans to give them free weapons the last 3 years?

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A war with no safe zone from aerial attacks inhibits large-footprint industries, in this case particularly so as much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is located in its east where the fighting is fiercest. There's not going to be large scale extraction until some sort of peace is agreed to.

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Agreed. The orcs would immediately destroy any efforts at large scale economic activity by Ukraine.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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LMCane said:

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74OA said:

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Check the three articles I linked immediately above. They go into that particular aspect of the potential deal in some detail.

Russia is currently in control of about a third of Ukraine's critical resources. Even if Kiev can't get any of that back with continued US/EU aid, it still leaves a lot to offer Trump.

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I really don't see how this is even possible

if the Ukrainians were able to access rare earth minerals-

why have they been having to beg the Euros and Americans to give them free weapons the last 3 years?

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A war with no safe zone from aerial attacks inhibits large-footprint industries, in this case particularly so as much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is located in its east where the fighting is fiercest. There's not going to be large scale extraction until some sort of peace is agreed to.

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Agreed. The orcs would immediately destroy any efforts at large scale economic activity by Ukraine.

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.....plus the additional impediments of Ukraine's manpower shortage and badly damaged power grid, as well.

The surest path to the US accessing Ukraine's natural resources is to keep it in the fight until Russia is forced into real negotiations. Putin only respects force and that's what it going to take to get a deal done short of just surrendering to his demands and leaving Ukraine to its fate as a vassal state of Russia.

How Trump can get it DONE.

sclaff said:

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What do you expect the lifespan of these nets to be?

From Bakhmut to Chasiv-Yar, Russia is constructing a special corridor for moving equipment, protected from FPV drones by dense netting. According to Russian reports, approximately 2 kilometers of the corridor is already complete. pic.twitter.com/8PQaCdg48J

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 9, 2025

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DETAILS

Those net tunnels will be death traps. A small 3ft hole would be enough to get some drones in and then there isn't any place for soldiers to run to.

lb3 said:

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Those net tunnels will be death traps. A small 3ft hole would be enough to get some drones in and then there isn't any place for soldiers to run to.

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They will receive a lot of artillery and HIMARS love, too.

There's this, too: THERMITE

Hows that net going to stop the FPV drones armed with claymore type anti-personnel mines.

Fly drones down the mouth of the net tunnel to take out the lead vehicle and clog the column inside.

I bet many vehicles will drive through the nets to scatter

Common guys. If it fails vehicles will simply drive through the flimsy nets and flimsy sticks. The idea of conventional targeting ease is legit, but this isn't a highway of death situation.

End all be all? Not a chance. Better than nothing? Very likely. Worth it? Probably.

So, they can zero on mortars and artillery and shower it with cluster munitions and mines, stop a vehicle or two to block it, then hammer the traffic backup?

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Common guys. If it fails vehicles will simply drive through the flimsy nets and flimsy sticks. The idea of conventional targeting ease is legit, but this isn't a highway of death situation.

End all be all? Not a chance. Better than nothing? Very likely. Worth it? Probably.

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I'll lay odds it may well be a false "safe zone" in the end, lending itself to concentrations of targets that the right weapons will laugh at.

sclaff said:

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Fly drones down the mouth of the net tunnel to take out the lead vehicle and clog the column inside.

I bet many vehicles will drive through the nets to scatter

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I think your giving the orcs way too much credit on disbursing through the nets…..and if they do might lead to some fratricide from the net builders.

B-1 83 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Common guys. If it fails vehicles will simply drive through the flimsy nets and flimsy sticks. The idea of conventional targeting ease is legit, but this isn't a highway of death situation.

End all be all? Not a chance. Better than nothing? Very likely. Worth it? Probably.

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I'll lay odds it may well be a false "safe zone" in the end, lending itself to concentrations of targets that the right weapons will laugh at.

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I could certainly see that. But it's probably not much worse than the mere existence of MSRs in the first place.

But let's say a coordinated attack comes through where the first wave blows holes in nets: the next drones through would still need to get through the holes before targeting vehicles: a challenge which might just add enough delay to give a shotgun a chance.

As with all defenses: it wont be independently sufficient; but it probably helps.

Ukrainian helos chase down drones.

HIND

Newly delivered French fighters do same.

MIRAGE

Get Off My Lawn said:

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B-1 83 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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Common guys. If it fails vehicles will simply drive through the flimsy nets and flimsy sticks. The idea of conventional targeting ease is legit, but this isn't a highway of death situation.

End all be all? Not a chance. Better than nothing? Very likely. Worth it? Probably.

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I'll lay odds it may well be a false "safe zone" in the end, lending itself to concentrations of targets that the right weapons will laugh at.

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I could certainly see that. But it's probably not much worse than the mere existence of MSRs in the first place.

But let's say a coordinated attack comes through where the first wave blows holes in nets: the next drones through would still need to get through the holes before targeting vehicles: a challenge which might just add enough delay to give a shotgun a chance.

As with all defenses: it wont be independently sufficient; but it probably helps.

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I'm thinking that in their rush to gather under the "drone protection", something a lot more heavy duty with cluster munitions does the job. The Russians have shown to be not too bright at times.

Ukrainian barbed wire defense lines. The use of such barriers is growing due to the increasing number of Russian infantry assaults lacking armored support.

Ukrainian barbed wire defence lines. The use of such barriers is growing due to the increasing number of Russian infantry assaults without armored support. https://t.co/HsbmIqMWtm https://t.co/yBZb1mdSz9 pic.twitter.com/FQvP0YSidT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 7, 2025

So it seems Russian tactics have steadily regressed .
Start 2022 trying to use modern combined arms in the beginning. Then they tried massed infantry and armored blitzkreig. Ukes picked off all the armor and cluster bombed the infantry. Then trying to just level their opposition with artillery rockets and missiles.
What we are seeing now is basically a ww 1 static battlefield.

lb sand said:

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So it seems Russian tactics have steadily regressed .
Start 2022 trying to use modern combined arms in the beginning. Then they tried massed infantry and armored blitzkreig. Ukes picked off all the armor and cluster bombed the infantry. Then trying to just level their opposition with artillery rockets and missiles.
What we are seeing now is basically a ww 1 static battlefield.

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With a mix of Iranian Basij-style human wave attacks thrown in.

How long until we get massed formations with muskets?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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How long until we get massed formations with muskets?

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Probably 6-12 months in advance of having to finally resort to rocks and pointy sticks.