GenericAggie said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GenericAggie said:

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It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

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Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

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I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

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But Putin just doesn't want that portion of Ukraine. And he doesn't want the rest of Ukraine to be able to arm itself either.

Why do you suppose that is?

Teslag said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GenericAggie said:

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It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

---

Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

---

I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

---

But Putin just doesn't want that portion of Ukraine. And he doesn't want the rest of Ukraine to be able to arm itself either.

Why do you suppose that is?

---

What does he want and how do you know what he wants?

MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin wouldn't outlive a Ukrainian insurgency. He is going to be lucky if what he has already isn't a constant problem. For many many years, if he keeps it.

My concern is he all but depopulates it of anyone not firmly pro Russian in a brutal way. That thought gives Ukrainians no incentive to surrender or yield. Putin will repress them brutally wherever he takes power.

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That has happened many times by Russia...

Russification of Ukraine...

There's a reason why the Ukrainians are fighting so hard now...

GenericAggie said:

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Teslag said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GenericAggie said:

---

It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

---

Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

---

I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

---

But Putin just doesn't want that portion of Ukraine. And he doesn't want the rest of Ukraine to be able to arm itself either.

Why do you suppose that is?

---

What does he want and how do you know what he wants?

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He wants Ukraine back for Russia because he believes there is no Ukraine or even Ukrainian people.

He literally wrote a manifesto about it when the war broke out.

GenericAggie said:

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Ag with kids said:

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GenericAggie said:

---

It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

---

Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

---

I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

---

Well, a "never in NATO" "treaty" would be worthless.

There was a treaty in place in 2022. Putin ignored it.

He'll ignore every treaty that doesn't have Ukraine in NATO.

Not sure if this was posted, but it's a fascinating longform video from the frontlines.



It's illuminating as to the realities of the situation.

Teslag said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Teslag said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Ag with kids said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

---

Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

---

I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

---

But Putin just doesn't want that portion of Ukraine. And he doesn't want the rest of Ukraine to be able to arm itself either.

Why do you suppose that is?

---

What does he want and how do you know what he wants?

---

He wants Ukraine back for Russia because he believes there is no Ukraine or even Ukrainian people.

He literally wrote a manifesto about it when the war broke out.

---

He wrote and said a lot of things about the reasons for his "special military operation" when the war broke out. Most of it was entirely untrue. He really wanted the O&G resources in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, he wanted the industrial output from the Donbas, and he wanted the grain production from southeastern Ukraine. Having a friendly puppet government that would not hinder his gas pipelines to Europe was also high on his list. Getting the USSR back together or regathering the Russian homelands is much lower on the list than the natural and human resources of Ukraine that he wanted to add to the Russian economy.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin wouldn't outlive a Ukrainian insurgency. He is going to be lucky if what he has already isn't a constant problem. For many many years, if he keeps it.

My concern is he all but depopulates it of anyone not firmly pro Russian in a brutal way. That thought gives Ukrainians no incentive to surrender or yield. Putin will repress them brutally wherever he takes power.

---

They've had practice for this before, and Ukrainians haven't forgotten.

Reports coming out of a renewed Uke offensive in Kursk. Everyone setting up the chessboard as best they can by Jan 20 I guess. No real information yet aside from armored columns are on the move.

richardag said:

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74OA said:

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3/ These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government.

Latest on Ukraine: https://t.co/ONYEFID1hS pic.twitter.com/Vwq67JvFTf

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) December 30, 2024

"These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government."

Putin's demands equate to Ukraine at least becoming a vassal state of Russia. If Kiev accepts, you can quibble that this isn't "annexation", but it is certainly the real-world equivalent as it would be the end of any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty. To you that means Ukraine would become some sort of benign 'buffer", to the Ukrainians it means they would become de facto Russian serfs.

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I am not a military expert by any stretch, but the statement, "imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military" seems like a gigantic red flag.

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There are lots of ways to wiggle out of those restrictions. In the 30s the Germans created dummy corporations to presumably design and build submarines for other countries that would have been a violation of the Treaty of Versailles if that research and development was done in Germany. They also built transport aircraft for civilian purposes that could be converted to bombers.

The Germans also established 'flying clubs' to train military aged men as pilots.

Who benefits from a cease-fire?

"The analysis dismisses the notion that a truce would bring peace to Europe. Instead, it predicts that a temporarily restrained Russia would remain a threat, likely turning its focus toward other nations, including Poland and the Baltic states. "History has shown that the Kremlin views conflict as a tool to address its internal and external challenges," the report notes
.
This perspective is echoed in satellite imagery and OSINT reports indicating rapidly emptying Russian military depots. These signs of attrition underscore the critical need for sustained Western support to Ukraine, rather than concessions that could embolden Moscow.

Drawing parallels with past appeasement policies, Defense24 warns against repeating mistakes akin to the Munich Agreement of 1938. "Just as ignoring the annexation of Austria emboldened Nazi Germany, tolerating Russian aggression risks legitimizing further invasions," the report argues.

The report concludes by emphasizing the importance of forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and holding its leadership accountable for war crimes. Only through such measures, analysts assert, can Europe ensure lasting peace and deter future conflicts."

WAR

Lest we also forget how the North Koreans/Chinese/Russians strung out negotiations in bad faith to solidify their positions in the Korean War. Give people like this an inch and they'll take a mile.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Lest we also forget how the North Koreand/Chinese/Russians strung out negotiations in bad faith to solidify their positions in the Korean War. Give people like this an inch and they'll take a mile.

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Yep. If their lips are moving........

74OA said:

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Who benefits from a cease-fire?

"The analysis dismisses the notion that a truce would bring peace to Europe. Instead, it predicts that a temporarily restrained Russia would remain a threat, likely turning its focus toward other nations, including Poland and the Baltic states. "History has shown that the Kremlin views conflict as a tool to address its internal and external challenges," the report notes
.
This perspective is echoed in satellite imagery and OSINT reports indicating rapidly emptying Russian military depots. These signs of attrition underscore the critical need for sustained Western support to Ukraine, rather than concessions that could embolden Moscow.

Drawing parallels with past appeasement policies, Defense24 warns against repeating mistakes akin to the Munich Agreement of 1938. "Just as ignoring the annexation of Austria emboldened Nazi Germany, tolerating Russian aggression risks legitimizing further invasions," the report argues.

The report concludes by emphasizing the importance of forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and holding its leadership accountable for war crimes. Only through such measures, analysts assert, can Europe ensure lasting peace and deter future conflicts."

WAR

---

Do Yall really believe this type of article as written? Think about it. Our IC and/State dept isn't going to put out information unless it's to our advantage. But, it's a blog. And who wrote the blog? But this person is credible. Ok. Sure they are. Maybe the IC wants messaging to go out to test the waters or to send a message. Who knows. But I don't read anything anymore and take it as face value. It's not distrust as much as potential ulterior motives. Well, and distrust.

GenericAggie said:

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74OA said:

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Who benefits from a cease-fire?

"The analysis dismisses the notion that a truce would bring peace to Europe. Instead, it predicts that a temporarily restrained Russia would remain a threat, likely turning its focus toward other nations, including Poland and the Baltic states. "History has shown that the Kremlin views conflict as a tool to address its internal and external challenges," the report notes
.
This perspective is echoed in satellite imagery and OSINT reports indicating rapidly emptying Russian military depots. These signs of attrition underscore the critical need for sustained Western support to Ukraine, rather than concessions that could embolden Moscow.

Drawing parallels with past appeasement policies, Defense24 warns against repeating mistakes akin to the Munich Agreement of 1938. "Just as ignoring the annexation of Austria emboldened Nazi Germany, tolerating Russian aggression risks legitimizing further invasions," the report argues.

The report concludes by emphasizing the importance of forcing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and holding its leadership accountable for war crimes. Only through such measures, analysts assert, can Europe ensure lasting peace and deter future conflicts."

WAR

---

Do Yall really believe this type of article as written? Think about it. Our IC and/State dept isn't going to put out information unless it's to our advantage. But, it's a blog. And who wrote the blog? But this person is credible. Ok. Sure they are. Maybe the IC wants messaging to go out to test the waters or to send a message. Who knows. But I don't read anything anymore and take it as face value. It's not distrust as much as potential ulterior motives. Well, and distrust.

---

The link is just one data point among many on this subject, so of course do due diligence. But it is a reputable defense site which just uses "blog" as part of its branding. It is citing a European report, btw, and the intel the report references is OSINT, not USG data, so it isn't anything provided by the IC/State.

so the war rolled into 2025

will this be the year it ends?

W said:

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so the war rolled into 2025

will this be the year it ends?

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Its not going to end. Just like it didn't end when Putin took the Crimea. Rebuild rearm attack again in 5 years.

The developments in Kursk oblast looks something like this. We do not know if Ukraine managed to consolidate positions. We think we have geolocated UA units inside Berdin and Novosotnitskii.
Geos: https://t.co/RNty0eKLQL pic.twitter.com/ouerMmm9y4

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) January 5, 2025

W said:

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so the war rolled into 2025

will this be the year it ends?

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Define end Pretty sure even if a truce was reached pockets of resistance would continue to engage

Still watching this from early on, but it's an interesting interview so far.

Russia lost over 50% of its tanks since the beginning of the war – OSINT researchers @Jonpy99, @HighMarsed and @CovertCabal

A large-scale investigation using the latest available satellite imagery showed that tank numbers in Russian open-air storage have dropped to 48% of… pic.twitter.com/grq5u4ENlg

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 5, 2025

Russia lost over 50% of its tanks since the beginning of the war OSINT researchers
@Jonpy99
,
@HighMarsed
and
@CovertCabal


A large-scale investigation using the latest available satellite imagery showed that tank numbers in Russian open-air storage have dropped to 48% of pre-war levels. Of the remaining 3517 tanks, only 279 are considered combat-ready.

Almost 2000 tanks need refurbishment before they can be used. Another 1200 tanks can only be stripped for parts.

Repair costs and limited production capacity have slowed tank replacements significantly. In 2024, Russia pulled just 1,150 tanks from storagehalf the number deployed in 2023.

Data from the researchers indicates a similar depletion of Russian IFV and APC reserves.

This does not mean Russia will "run out of tanks" or other equipment, but it signals challenges for continuing intense offensives reliant on massive human and equipment losses, a strategy Russia has frequently used in the past.

Covert Cabal / YouTube

AlaskanAg99 said:

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W said:

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so the war rolled into 2025

will this be the year it ends?

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Its not going to end. Just like it didn't end when Putin took the Crimea. Rebuild rearm attack again in 5 years.

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Only way it ends is with Ukraine in NATO.

Good God

Ukrainian Stryker APC, Out of Ammunition, Crushes Russian Infantry in Kursk Region pic.twitter.com/1brZkwkBme

— imi (m) (@moklasen) January 6, 2025

Waffledynamics said:

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Good God

Ukrainian Stryker APC, Out of Ammunition, Crushes Russian Infantry in Kursk Region pic.twitter.com/1brZkwkBme

— imi (m) (@moklasen) January 6, 2025

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Grand Theft Auto strategy

Waffledynamics said:

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Good God

Ukrainian Stryker APC, Out of Ammunition, Crushes Russian Infantry in Kursk Region pic.twitter.com/1brZkwkBme

— imi (m) (@moklasen) January 6, 2025

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Armored
Person
Crusher

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Good God

Ukrainian Stryker APC, Out of Ammunition, Crushes Russian Infantry in Kursk Region pic.twitter.com/1brZkwkBme

— imi (m) (@moklasen) January 6, 2025

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Grand Theft Auto strategy

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I was thinking Call of Duty Mobile, but same concept.

Update on Ukraine's recently renewed offensive push in Kursk.

"Ukrainian forces "made tactical advances on January 5," ISW noted. "Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted multiple roughly company-sized mechanized assaults in the Berdin-Novosotnitsky direction (northeast of Sudzha) in three waves of attack using roughly a battalion's worth of armored vehicles. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also intensified offensive operations in the direction of Leonidovo (southeast of Korenevo) and conducted a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Pushkarnoye (east of Sudzha)."

LAND GRAB?

txags92 said:

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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Good God

Ukrainian Stryker APC, Out of Ammunition, Crushes Russian Infantry in Kursk Region pic.twitter.com/1brZkwkBme

— imi (m) (@moklasen) January 6, 2025

---

Grand Theft Auto strategy

---

I was thinking Call of Duty Mobile, but same concept.

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Should have been set to Meatloaf's 2 out of 3 ain't bad…

2 Pantsir and 2 S-300's destroyed allegedly

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-five-air-defense-systems-350m-day-2010227

Dang, he got the last two cruise missiles with his cannon. Even though they likely weren't evasively maneuvering, that still seems good.

Update on the latest Baltic cable cutting incident and its role in Russia's hybrid warfare. "The Swedish Navy dispatched its submarine rescue vessel HMS Belos to assist the Finnish efforts in creating an in-depth situational picture of the damage to the underwater infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland."

SWEDES

"The United Kingdom is leading a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and NATO effort to track Russian "Shadow Fleet" vessels in Northern European waters, in real time, to protect critical undersea infrastructure, the United Kingdom's defense minister announced Monday."

ACTION-REACTION

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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Update on the latest Baltic cable cutting incident and its role in Russia's hybrid warfare. "The Swedish Navy dispatched its submarine rescue vessel HMS Belos to assist the Finnish efforts in creating an in-depth situational picture of the damage to the underwater infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland."

SWEDES

"The United Kingdom is leading a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and NATO effort to track Russian "Shadow Fleet" vessels in Northern European waters, in real time, to protect critical undersea infrastructure, the United Kingdom's defense minister announced Monday."

ACTION-REACTION

---

Some of these Russian and Chinese shadow ships need to start catching on fire and sinking mysteriously with no comment from us or anybody else and maybe they will think twice about doing it anymore.

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100%

I'm guessing if/when that starts happening then they will ramp up efforts to hit other soft targets.

Drones launching drones. This time naval drones sending aerial drones against land targets.

"Only a week after Ukrainian sea drones made history by successfully taking down Russian helicopters, another historical first as our homegrown naval drones are now launching their own FPV drones, destroying Russia's air defense units," CSCIS said on social media."

HISTORY