Despite the invasion, Ukraine honored its gas pipeline transit contract with Russia in order to give key European allies time to make other energy arrangements without suddenly tanking their economies. That grace period comes to an end tomorrow as the contract expires with Ukraine refusing to renew it.

This primarily affects Hungary and Slovakia which have used the extra time hoping Ukraine would surrender rather than making alternative energy arrangements. The closure of the Ukrainian pipeline will shut off the last remaining direct flow of Russian gas to Europe.

Here's an update on the EU painfully weaning itself off of Russian gas. Scroll down to second chart for a quick summary.

GAS

sclaff said:

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/2. The moment the Russian Mi-8 was shot down by R-73 missile launched from Magyar V5 sea drone. pic.twitter.com/NTmh71OpJm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 31, 2024

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More detail: SHOOTDOWN

Russia now confirming that both helos were shot down by the Ukrainian USV.

DRONE

The Russian army has lost over 38,000 troops and more than 1,000 pieces of equipment since the beginning of Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Jan. 1.

Syrskyi's statement comes after his visit to Russia's Kursk Oblast to reward the Ukrainian military serving in the area.

Over 700 servicemen from the Russian military were captured during the Ukrainian incursion, the general added.

74OA said:

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Russia now confirming that both helos were shot down by the Ukrainian USV.

DRONE

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Splyat!!

Nothing significant, but interesting to see/hear a Uke drone team operate.

The rocket boosted precision air munition provided by the French doing work.

"As we have explained in the past, the baseline 250-kilogram (551-pound) version of the Hammer has a standoff range of around 43 miles, putting it roughly on par with the U.S.-made JDAM-ER, also used by Ukraine. Unlike the JDAM-ER, however, the French munition doesn't only rely on a pop-out wing kit to extend its range but is also fitted with a solid-fuel rocket."

HAMMER TIME

Hungary is just the worst

Touchless said:

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Nothing significant, but interesting to see/hear a Uke drone team operate.

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Gonna be a whole generation with some serious mental issues

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Touchless said:

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Nothing significant, but interesting to see/hear a Uke drone team operate.

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TommyBrady said:

Gonna be a whole generation with some serious mental issues

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And so goes war, unfortunately.

Combat mental trauma will be an enduring legacy for both sides of this conflict, but in Ukraine's case it isn't limited to soldiers.

Similar horror has also impacted large swaths of Ukraine's civilian population--women, children, the elderly--who have also been exposed to death, mutilation and destruction from years of Putin's indiscriminate attacks.

How do you raise emotionally healthy children under such circumstances, for example?

How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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Apparently, they find the prospect of surrender and serfdom even more painful than their losses, and with a minimum draft age of 25 they are far from being "out of people."

Interesting interview with a Ukrainian fighter pilot in which he describes the chaos of the initial invasion and the improvements since.

"As an example, in these early days, Viking's available intelligence on Russian air defenses was scrawled on a piece of map that he'd torn off, with information vital for survival being exchanged by word of mouth between pilots. The map simply showed the best route into a given area, with circles showing the approximate engagement ranges of hostile air defenses.

The primary job at this time was attempting to blunt the advance of Russian tactical aircraft flying from Belarus. "We were the only ones here, to put it bluntly. We were the first line of defense, and they were constantly trying to sneak their Su-34s and Su-35s in at night, at extremely low altitudes."

VIKING

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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74OA said:

they find the prospect of surrender and serfdom even more painful than their losses

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It's incredible to me how many people fail to understand that simple point somehow.

GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)

GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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You dont really believe that, do you?

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+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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USA*** said:

You dont really believe that, do you?

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Yes, I do. What do you believe will happen?

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+ 3 more quotes (click to expand)

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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USA*** said:

You dont really believe that, do you?

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GenericAggie said:

Yes, I do. What do you believe will happen?

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The same thing that happens in all land grabs. Russia will make Ukraine a part of Russia.

74OA said:

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3/ These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government.

Latest on Ukraine: https://t.co/ONYEFID1hS pic.twitter.com/Vwq67JvFTf

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) December 30, 2024

Loading full tweet…

"These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government."

Putin's demands equate to Ukraine at least becoming a vassal state of Russia. If Kiev accepts, you can quibble that this isn't "annexation", but it is certainly the real-world equivalent as it would be the end of any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty. To you that means Ukraine would become some sort of benign 'buffer", to the Ukrainians it means they would become de facto Russian serfs.

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I am not a military expert by any stretch, but the statement, "imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military" seems like a gigantic red flag.

.......removing the elected government and by implication replacing it with one approved by the Kremlin isn't?

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+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)

GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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When Putin wants to take his next chunk of territory (whether it's Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, or Azerbaijan), which group of people do you think he'll throw out as the first group of bullet and bomb magnets?

Russians?

Or newly subjugated Ukrainians?

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+ 3 more quotes (click to expand)

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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USA*** said:

You dont really believe that, do you?

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GenericAggie said:

Yes, I do. What do you believe will happen?

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Russia LITERALLY occupies the eastern part of Ukraine. They have set up RUSSIAN governmental systems behind the front lines.

They tried to take Kyiv at the very beginning of the "Special Military Operation".

Why would you think if the entirety of Ukraine was to surrender/submit that Russia wouldn't do the same thing to the rest of the country?

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+ 4 more quotes (click to expand)

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

---

GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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USA*** said:

You dont really believe that, do you?

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GenericAggie said:

Yes, I do. What do you believe will happen?

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Ag with kids said:

Russia LITERALLY occupies the eastern part of Ukraine. They have set up RUSSIAN governmental systems behind the front lines.

They tried to take Kyiv at the very beginning of the "Special Military Operation".

Why would you think if the entirety of Ukraine was to surrender/submit that Russia wouldn't do the same thing to the rest of the country?

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I never said nor do I believe that Ukraine is going to surrender.

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74OA said:

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Click to load Tweet

"These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government."

Putin's demands equate to Ukraine at least becoming a vassal state of Russia. If Kiev accepts, you can quibble that this isn't "annexation", but it is certainly the real-world equivalent as it would be the end of any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty. To you that means Ukraine would become some sort of benign 'buffer", to the Ukrainians it means they would become de facto Russian serfs.

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richardag said:

I am not a military expert by any stretch, but the statement, "imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military" seems like a gigantic red flag.

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That is a limit on Ukraine restocking, while Russia restocks to get ready to take the rest of Ukraine. Anything that doesn't let Ukraine in NATO as part of the deal is just a pause for Russia to rearm, and not a real peace deal.

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+ 5 more quotes (click to expand)

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GenericAggie said:

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How does Ukraine sustain this war? They're literally running out of people. They even say this in the video.

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AgBank said:

Failure, they get conscripted and used as cannon fodder during Russia's next war.

Empires have to empire.

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GenericAggie said:

That's not what's going to happen here. Ukraine isn't going to be annexed/taken over by Russia. They will be a DMZ, a buffer.

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USA*** said:

You dont really believe that, do you?

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GenericAggie said:

Yes, I do. What do you believe will happen?

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Ag with kids said:

Russia LITERALLY occupies the eastern part of Ukraine. They have set up RUSSIAN governmental systems behind the front lines.

They tried to take Kyiv at the very beginning of the "Special Military Operation".

Why would you think if the entirety of Ukraine was to surrender/submit that Russia wouldn't do the same thing to the rest of the country?

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GenericAggie said:

I never said nor do I believe that Ukraine is going to surrender.

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So, they're not going to surrender. But, they will be "a DMZ, a buffer".

Please how you envision that happening...

It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

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+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)

74OA said:

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Click to load Tweet

"These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military, and removing the Ukrainian government."

Putin's demands equate to Ukraine at least becoming a vassal state of Russia. If Kiev accepts, you can quibble that this isn't "annexation", but it is certainly the real-world equivalent as it would be the end of any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty. To you that means Ukraine would become some sort of benign 'buffer", to the Ukrainians it means they would become de facto Russian serfs.

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richardag said:

I am not a military expert by any stretch, but the statement, "imposing severe limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military" seems like a gigantic red flag.

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txags92 said:

That is a limit on Ukraine restocking, while Russia restocks to get ready to take the rest of Ukraine. Anything that doesn't let Ukraine in NATO as part of the deal is just a pause for Russia to rearm, and not a real peace deal.

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Yep.

2014 was the first bite. 2022 was the second.

NATO stops Putin from continuing.

GenericAggie said:

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It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

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Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

Putin wouldn't outlive a Ukrainian insurgency. He is going to be lucky if what he has already isn't a constant problem. For many many years, if he keeps it.

My concern is he all but depopulates it of anyone not firmly pro Russian in a brutal way. That thought gives Ukrainians no incentive to surrender or yield. Putin will repress them brutally wherever he takes power.

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GenericAggie said:

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It's called negotiation. I was responding to the premise that Russia was going to take over all of Ukraine.

I believe that the Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine. That's not the same thing as surrendering.

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Ag with kids said:

Please explain the negotiation you envision and the end result of it. Other than "Russians will keep a piece of the eastern part of Ukraine". They already have that.

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I answered your question. That's what I believe will happen. They keep it. The only way Putin cedes that land is if we/Ukraine/ NATO sign a "never in NATO" treaty.

What do you believe will happen?

MouthBQ98 said:

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Putin wouldn't outlive a Ukrainian insurgency. He is going to be lucky if what he has already isn't a constant problem. For many many years, if he keeps it.

My concern is he all but depopulates it of anyone not firmly pro Russian in a brutal way. That thought gives Ukrainians no incentive to surrender or yield. Putin will repress them brutally wherever he takes power.

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Your concern is a valid concern. I don't disagree with that outcome.

74OA said:

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.......removing the elected government and by implication replacing it with one approved by the Kremlin isn't?

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Both are.