***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,670,887 Views | 47937 Replies | Last: 14 min ago by Ag with kids
74OA
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AG
When we lead, others follow. We just have to muster the courage to lead. "Germany has said Ukrainian forces can use German-sent weapons against military targets inside Russia, following a similar decision from the US."

UPDATES
GAC06
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AG
Flag the "well informed analysis" and move on with factual updates
one safe place
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Haven't kept up with this in many months, who is deemed to be winning, if either?
Waffledynamics
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one safe place said:

Haven't kept up with this in many months, who is deemed to be winning, if either?
Neither side can do a lot, though Russia has the initiative at the moment. With F16s, other aid, and doctrine changes, this could shape up to be an interesting year.
AgLA06
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one safe place said:

Haven't kept up with this in many months, who is deemed to be winning, if either?
Neither.

Ukraine is holding its own in a war of attrition with the supposed second most power army in the world despite our politicians forcing them to fight under stupid rules of engagement.
DCPD158
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AgLA06 said:

one safe place said:

Haven't kept up with this in many months, who is deemed to be winning, if either?
Neither.

Ukraine is holding its own in a war of attrition with the supposed second most power army in the world despite our politicians forcing them to fight under stupid rules of engagement.
and there is a reason for this. Draw it out and grind Russia's war machine to dust. We are sending 30 year old military surplus to Ukraine and they are still stalemating RU. If the West went all out from the beginning, Ukraine would most likely have much of the territory they lost including Crimea.

We want RU to bleed and are using Ukraine to do it.
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
Gilligan
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This is where I knew that Doctorow guy was a schill. Putin sending meat waves says "I love you…"
74OA
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DCPD158 said:

AgLA06 said:

one safe place said:

Haven't kept up with this in many months, who is deemed to be winning, if either?
Neither.

Ukraine is holding its own in a war of attrition with the supposed second most power army in the world despite our politicians forcing them to fight under stupid rules of engagement.
and there is a reason for this. Draw it out and grind Russia's war machine to dust. We are sending 30 year old military surplus to Ukraine and they are still stalemating RU. If the West went all out from the beginning, Ukraine would most likely have much of the territory they lost including Crimea.

We want RU to bleed and are using Ukraine to do it.
More specifically, we want RU to bleed, but not at the cost of a miscalculation that widens the war to NATO or potentially starts WWIII. There is still plenty about this fight with a nuclear armed nation that calls for caution, particularly now that Putin's back is slowing getting pushed against the wall after two years of failure.

Above all else, we want Ukraine to survive as an independent nation with our support so that other dictators learn that aggression carries a heavy price and are deterred.
benchmark
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AG
Russians can't be too careful these days ...

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

"Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are."


PJYoung
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Russian casualties hit a record high in May, according to Kyiv, after Ukraine reported the highest daily number of losses since Moscow launched its invasion effort in February 2022.

Russian forces in Ukraine lost 38,940 fighters last month, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Saturday, marking what Ukraine described as the "highest monthly number since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Waffledynamics
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PJYoung said:

Russian casualties hit a record high in May, according to Kyiv, after Ukraine reported the highest daily number of losses since Moscow launched its invasion effort in February 2022.

Russian forces in Ukraine lost 38,940 fighters last month, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Saturday, marking what Ukraine described as the "highest monthly number since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
I'd take that with a grain of salt. Both sides have plenty of reason to embellish. I think the Russian MoD said something like 35,000 Ukrainian losses.
PJYoung
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nortex97
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Those are doubtful figures, imho, if for no other reason than that there has been no reported decrease (including by the Ukrainian outlets) in Russian rates of artillery fire, to my knowledge. One of today's sitreps:





The glide bombs are also very devastating and being employed more weekly:


The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:


SamHou
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While bleeding Russia's military has been a great thing (despite people on the other thread's handwringing), I wish NATO would give Ukraine the weapons and the authority to make a decisive push over the next 12 months. It would be great for Ukraine to win this soon so that NATO can pivot its attention to China which will likely get frisky in the next three years
Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:



Well, they may TRY to attack those US assets...
AgLA06
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Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:



Well, they may TRY to attack those US assets...


Then all restrictions on Ukraine should be removed.
Ag with kids
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AgLA06 said:

Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:



Well, they may TRY to attack those US assets...


Then all restrictions on Ukraine should be removed.
Ok.

And, remember than Russia attacking them would be Russia attacking the US directly - not US assets being used by Ukraine.

Don't think Russia wants to cross that line...at least not yet.
74OA
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Latest campaign assessment from ISW.

"Key Takeaways:
  • Russian forces conducted a large-scale drone and missile strike mainly targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 31 to June 1.
  • The current lack of clarity about US restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian territory misses an opportunity to deter further Russian offensive efforts across the border into northern Ukraine.
  • Individual Western governments are stipulating disparate policies about Ukraine's future use of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that some Ukrainian reserve brigades remain understrength and stated that the slow arrival of US security assistance is complicating Ukrainian efforts to effectively commit reserves to ongoing defensive operations.
  • Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
  • The Russian Ministry of Justice designated the "Way Home" social movement, a movement of relatives of mobilized Russian servicemembers that has been calling for their relatives' demobilization, as a "foreign agent" on June 1."
UPDATE
JFABNRGR
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Ag with kids said:

AgLA06 said:

Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:



Well, they may TRY to attack those US assets...


Then all restrictions on Ukraine should be removed.
Ok.

And, remember than Russia attacking them would be Russia attacking the US directly - not US assets being used by Ukraine.

Don't think Russia wants to cross that line...at least not yet.


They already splashed one in jet fuel and the houthis have shot down multiple wo any response effective in deterring any further shoot downs.

I am surprised russia hasn't shot any down yet, wont be surprised when they do, and convinced our response will again be wishy washy enough that the only benefactor is General Atomics or whomever MIC that is making these now.
GAC06
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They collided with one which downed it. Iran shot down a global hawk years ago without any direct response.

Chances are we wouldn't do anything but think that's the wrong way to go.
USAFAg
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JFABNRGR said:

Ag with kids said:

AgLA06 said:

Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

The putative/rumored response to the OTH radar attacks makes sense, would of course be better than a tactical nuclear one:



Well, they may TRY to attack those US assets...


Then all restrictions on Ukraine should be removed.
Ok.

And, remember than Russia attacking them would be Russia attacking the US directly - not US assets being used by Ukraine.

Don't think Russia wants to cross that line...at least not yet.


They already splashed one in jet fuel and the houthis have shot down multiple wo any response effective in deterring any further shoot downs.

I am surprised russia hasn't shot any down yet, wont be surprised when they do, and convinced our response will again be wishy washy enough that the only benefactor is General Atomics or whomever MIC that is making these now.
Eh...the Houthis have shot down what, 5-6, since 2014...and all were OVER Yemen and engaged in either recce or strike. That's a considerably different situation than Russia shooting down one over International Waters.

Russian harassment of NATO flights, manned or unmanned, over International Waters is not terribly uncommon and has been going on for decades.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
nortex97
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Global Hawk/Triton etc. is a lot different than a predator/avenger (MQ-9) type platform with hellfires. And Russia has A2A assets and launch platforms that are simply not analogous to the Houthi rebels.

This would by definition be a bloodless retaliation. It seems probable they will at the least attempt it. Notably, the range of the APG-66 radars on the MLU block 20 F-16's won't really help the UAF folks out with this threat, and it's not clear if the Saab platform will either.
benchmark
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This new US policy significantly increases the number of targets requiring Russian EW protection ... maybe giving GMLRS a second wind.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian Defense forces have destroyed Russian military column in Kursk region of Russia near border


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/3-june-ukrainian-defense-forces-have-destroyed-russian-military#google_vignette

Quote:

Ukrainian Defense forces have destroyed Russian military column in Kursk region of Russia near border


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/3-june-ukrainian-defense-forces-have-destroyed-russian-military
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Yampil town of Donetsk region is under Russian bombardment


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/3-june-yampil-town-of-donetsk-region-is-under-russian-bombardment
nortex97
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Not much movement, imho.
benchmark
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No doubt that many anonymous pro-Russian Twitter shills are also on their payroll.

Washington Post: Russia co-opts far-right politicians in Europe with cash, officials say
Quote:

Security services in Europe are still investigating the role of dozens of other far-right politicians in the Voice of Europe network, including from France, Belgium and the Netherlands, as well up to six more AfD figures, including politicians and parliamentary assistants, people familiar with the investigation said. Belgian authorities have also played a leading investigative role, with key Voice of Europe meetings with politicians taking place in other locations in Europe, including Brussels, senior officials said.
74OA
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Miscellaneous news related to Putin's war.

UPDATES
74OA
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Helped by the first strikes on Russian territory using U.S.-supplied munitions, Ukraine is improving its situation in the Kharkiv region. In particular, guided artillery rockets are being used to target Russian units headed toward the Kharkiv region before they even cross the border. Meanwhile, Russia's offense is not going to plan. Plus, other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.
74OA
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A S-300/S-400 SAM system located dozens of miles inside Russia was hit, signaling a new phase in Ukraine's air defense destruction campaign. No more Russian sanctuary just across the border to assemble troops, amass materiel and position IAD systems with impunity.

REACHING OUT
Waffledynamics
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P.U.T.U
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Think Russia has to do another push or at least move their equipment since Ukraine can hit it now and surely knows where most of it is.
nortex97
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We produced around 3850 ATACMS and something like 600 or 800 have been used, I think. How many does Ukraine likely have? I have no idea, haven't seen an estimate/guess, on either side.



Ukrainian ISR and fires coordination above was brutally impressive. Sitrep with more videos/links.
GAC06
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ATACMS are still being produced, enough so that we aren't worried about depleting our stocks. Once its replacement is really ready, they may get to really let loose.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/production-surge-eases-pentagon-worries-about-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00155846
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