***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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4:03p, 5/7/24
AG
According to Ukraine, half of North Korean ballistic missiles fired by Russia failed, plus other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.
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docb
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In reply to 74OA • 4:08p, 5/7/24
AG
74OA said:
According to Ukraine, half of North Korean ballistic missiles fired by Russia failed, plus other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.
It would be better if they would explode on lift off.
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74OA
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In reply to docb • 4:47p, 5/7/24
AG
docb said:
74OA said:
According to Ukraine, half of North Korean ballistic missiles fired by Russia failed, plus other updates from the front.

Today's SITREP.
It would be better if they would explode on lift off.
Sometimes, perfection is the enemy of good enough.

South Korea, for example, is thrilled.
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Waffledynamics
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6:07p, 5/7/24
AG
Quote:
Security Service of Ukraine exposed FSB cell who were preparing the assassination of the President of Ukraine: two colonels of State Security Administration were detained
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-may-security-service-of-ukraine-exposed-fsb-cell-who-were
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Waffledynamics
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6:08p, 5/7/24
AG
Seems Ukraine hit something in Luhansk (the city):

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nortex97
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4:10a, 5/8/24
AG
Ukraine-Russia ammo sitrep.



Quote:
"Russians are able to adapt in a very short period of time, so we have up to two months before the Russian Armed Forces adapt to ATACMS, says Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine & now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's national security, defense and intelligence committee.
Russia will adapt to counter ATACMS operational-tactical missiles in a couple of months, said Ivan Stupak, adviser to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security.
"As we know, the Russians can adapt in a very short period of time," Stupak told Newsweek, suggesting that Ukraine "has up to two months" before the Russian military adapts to ATACMS.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:38a, 5/8/24
AG
So is it two months or now? The Russian Ministry of Defense already laughably claimed to have shot down 15 ATACMS just last week while offering zero evidence at all.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-it-shot-down-four-us-made-long-range-missiles-over-crimea-2024-05-04/

Quote:
MOSCOW, May 4 (Reuters) - The Russian defence ministry said on Saturday its air defence forces shot down four U.S.-produced long-range missiles over the Crimea peninsular, weapons known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) that Washington has shipped to Ukraine in recent weeks.
The ministry said later that Russian aircraft and air defence systems had downed a total of 15 ATACMS in the past week.


The more likely truth based on the Russian MOD's outlandish bluster and the increase in concern among Russian milbloggers like your Simplicous link shows, is that Russia is extremely concerned about more of them in theater. And after Luhansk was hit by one this morning they rightly should be.

They represent a logistical nightmare for any possible offensive attempt by Russia.
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PJYoung
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9:13a, 5/8/24
AG
And Russia is suddenly talking about nukes again in regards to F-16s coming into the theater.
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Teslag
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:22a, 5/8/24
AG
Seems like every time a new weapon system is sent to Russia they start the nuke hot air.
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Teslag
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2:04p, 5/8/24
AG
The EU is giving $3 Billion per year of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for ammunition

https://apnews.com/article/eu-ukraine-aid-russia-assets-bf69ea5773f566ce8148fa0b6d35dc94


Quote:
BRUSSELS (AP) European Union nations reached a tentative breakthrough deal to provide Ukraine with billions in additional funds for arms and ammunitions coming from the profits raised from frozen Russian central bank assets held in the bloc.
The agreement among the 27 EU ambassadors was announced by Belgium, which holds most of the frozen assets in the bloc. It came after weeks of tough negotiations among member states, which were made more complicated by the stringent financial limits on using such funds.
The deal should free up to 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) a year for Kyiv, of which 90% could be spent on ammunition and other military equipment.
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74OA
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2:16p, 5/8/24
AG
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
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Gilligan
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In reply to 74OA • 2:31p, 5/8/24
AG
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
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74OA
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In reply to Gilligan • 2:43p, 5/8/24
AG
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
Sure, the US for example openly announced a significantly expanded military presence attached to US Embassy Kiev to do all of those things you mention. I'm sure we also have a large crowd of CIA and DIA analysts there, too. But France is talking about sending combat troops, which is a completely different thing.
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Waffledynamics
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3:17p, 5/8/24
AG
Interesting analysis of a lot of issues plaguing Ukraine right now and how the aid may help.

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revvie
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In reply to Gilligan • 3:29p, 5/8/24
AG
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
I would be disappointed if they did not. Learn everything you can as the battlefield evolves in this war.
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AgLA06
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In reply to revvie • 4:04p, 5/8/24
AG
revvie said:
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
I would be disappointed if they did not. Learn everything you can as the battlefield evolves in this war.
Yep. And while I'm sure they are advising, training, and potentially even managing special units, we don't have people doing the fighting that haven't volunteered on Ukraine's behalf. That's a big difference and one of two main points of supplying them. Or should have been until politicians played games and put Ukraine on their heels.
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74OA
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In reply to revvie • 4:08p, 5/8/24
AG
revvie said:
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
I would be disappointed if they did not. Learn everything you can as the battlefield evolves in this war.
US military observer groups have a long history of learning first-hand from foreign wars.

UKRAINE
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Waffledynamics
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6:24p, 5/8/24
AG


101 visually confirmed losses in a day.
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AgLA06
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6:35p, 5/8/24
AG
Ukraine hitting Russian refineries is doing what sanctions can't.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to AgLA06 • 6:41p, 5/8/24
AG
AgLA06 said:
revvie said:
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
Russia warns France about sending troops to Ukraine, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
Every Western country has "sheep dipped" personnel in Ukraine right now. Use your imagination as to what capacity. Just know they are there and monitoring, recording, reporting, <fill in the blank>, everything that they can.
I would be disappointed if they did not. Learn everything you can as the battlefield evolves in this war.
Yep. And while I'm sure they are advising, training, and potentially even managing special units, we don't have people doing the fighting that haven't volunteered on Ukraine's behalf. That's a big difference and one of two main points of supplying them. Or should have been until politicians played games and put Ukraine on their heels.


I think its a pretty grey line. Our ISR bird gave the Ukes the exact position of the Moskva to sink it.

This is just one big example. The biggest difference imo is that for the most part we're currently not putting American soldiers in harms way.
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Waffledynamics
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7:34p, 5/8/24
AG
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2wealfth Man
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8:14p, 5/8/24
AG
taking out the storage facilities is a great play; lots of add-on damage for every hit, not easily replaceable / repairable and constricts the capacity of refining operations
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SamHou
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5:26a, 5/9/24
If any European country wants to add combat troops (not just advisors) to the battlefield, I'm all for it. They have more at stake if Russia wins this war
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nortex97
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 5:46a, 5/9/24
AG


Happy VE Day.



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PJYoung
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10:39a, 5/9/24
AG
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74OA
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10:44a, 5/9/24
AG
Mixed reviews on allied support for Ukraine so far. Too slow in too many instances. Getting Ukraine through 2024 while European defense industrial production ramps up is absolutely essential.

WEAPONS COALITIONS
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74OA
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10:51a, 5/9/24
AG
Ukraine strikes oil facility 1200km deep into Russia, plus other notes from the front.

UPDATES
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74OA
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1:00p, 5/9/24
AG
EU reaches agreement on how to use Russian money to aid Ukraine. It's the thin edge of the legal wedge. Let the handwringers get comfortable taking the profits from Russia's frozen billions and we can come back later and kick the wedge in further to pursue outright seizure.

DEAL
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74OA
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2:35p, 5/9/24
AG
Excellent overview of the status of the war. Economic section in the second half of the linked article is particularly informative.

"For the third year in a row Putin has celebrated a famous victory of almost eight decades ago while being unable to claim a new victory."

PARADE

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FJB24
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In reply to 74OA • 3:57p, 5/9/24
Indeed, quite a spectacle.



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GAC06
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:07p, 5/9/24
AG
Quote:
Happy VE Day.


VE Day was yesterday. Not surprised you celebrate the 9th though
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docb
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In reply to FJB24 • 5:14p, 5/9/24
AG
FJB24 said:
Indeed, quite a spectacle.





Would have been a great target for cluster munitions
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to FJB24 • 7:19p, 5/9/24
How long until the band director is called to lead a unit on the line?
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SamHou
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9:16p, 5/9/24
Good article about new Bradley's and how US aid is actually being used to modernize our equipment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/09/us-army-ukraine-war-aid-iron-fist-aps-m2-bradley-armour/
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Waffledynamics
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9:27p, 5/9/24
AG


Translation mentions "Kaluga Refinery "Pershiy Zavod""
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