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Russian ministry of defense claims full control over Vodyane village near Avdiyivka

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-april-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-full-control-over

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Turkish President Erdogan on Friday signed an act suspending Ankara's obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). The act will come into force on April 8

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-april-turkish-president-erdogan-on-friday-signed-an-act

Everyone's launching bombs at each other today. Reports of guided missiles and explosions in Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Sumy, and other areas on the Ukraine side. Russia also destroyed a Doctors Without Borders office.

Today, April 5th at around 3:00am, our @MSF office in Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region, in Ukraine was bombed and completely destroyed. All our staff are safe. Five civilians who were close to the office were injured. #WarInUkraine pic.twitter.com/SnHC0CusUC

— MSF Ukraine (@MSF_Ukraine) April 5, 2024

In addition to Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian airfields, Ukraine has hit areas across the river in the Kherson region as well and also across the border in the Belgorod region.

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

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Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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what happens to the Russian Army once the last prison is closed?

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You really meant to ask where do all the prison guards and admin go?

A. Ukraine on duty transfer. Lol

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That's not what I was implying at all.

the text above was discussing how the Russian Army was primarily being staffed by PRISON INMATES

so my question is, what happens when there are no more PRISON INMATES to staff the Russian Army.

that is when things start to get interesting.

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I know exactly what you were asking and I attempted to input a little humor and truth about the prison staff not having any work. The likely outcome for them will be duty transfers to the front line with the orc army.

The orcs have also been outsourcing to other countries for hire guns and will continue with their conscriptions which will likely be modified to include trades for X,Y,Z. All of which not ideal for combat but again putin doesn't care.

Waffledynamics said:

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Turkish President Erdogan on Friday signed an act suspending Ankara's obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). The act will come into force on April 8

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-april-turkish-president-erdogan-on-friday-signed-an-act

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Not surprising. NATO issued a statement back in November to announce an agreement to suspend their obligations under the treaty.

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Double tap missile strike in Zaporizhzhia as rescuers, police and journalists were on the site

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-april-double-tap-missile-strike-in-zaporizhzhia-as-rescuers

More on the recent successful Ukrainian attack on a major Russian fighter base, plus other notes from the front.

Today's SITREP.

Among the drones which Ukraine launched against the Morozovsk air base in Russia was also this one. The music you hear hasn’t been added to the video, it is the drone with a speaker playing the German/Breton drinking song “Was wollen wir trinken” (what do we want to drink).… pic.twitter.com/UTELhmOxrd

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 5, 2024

2/ Ukrainian strikes have typically only targeted individual airbases within Russia, and Ukraine’s ability to strike 4 separate airbases in one strike series represents a notable inflection in the capabilities that Ukrainian forces are employing in their campaign against critical…

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 6, 2024

4/ Sustained Ukrainian strikes against Russian airfields within Russia will degrade the Russian Aerospace Force’s (VKS) ability to conduct missile and air strikes throughout Ukraine.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 6, 2024

5/5 Read more in the April 5, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://t.co/FlGAx9d3Fz pic.twitter.com/zGaDtnPmxr

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 6, 2024

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Ukrainian military intelligence claimed explosion at oil products pipeline near Azov town of Rostov region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/6-april-ukrainian-military-intelligence-claimed-explosion

These are the losses I could identify yesterday.

The nightvision bmp-3 might all be the same vehicle. It is hard to tell. That video is one of the coolest videos in a long time. Extraordinarily bad news for the Russians who planned on surviving the war.https://t.co/6ZeZYh00Ln pic.twitter.com/TBRaw1Iab0

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) April 6, 2024

Perpetua is a fascinating guy who scours Russian Telegram channels and media to try to document as many Russian losses as possible:

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Perpetua became interested when the war first began - not in late February but during Russia's initial hostile actions in 2014 when it took over Crimea and fighting began in the Donbas region.

Perpetua is an avid gamer and some of the games he enjoys playing are more popular in eastern Europe, like Red Orchestra, which depicts battles on the eastern front during World War II. Over the years, he befriended fellow gamers who lived in Ukraine. He says some of his friends were displaced during the fighting that began eight years ago.

When the 2022 invasion began, he shared what he was learning about the war on the social-media platform Discord. While he knew major Ukrainian cities, he needed a way to keep track of the action unfolding around smaller towns and locations.

"I started making the map to keep everything straight," Perpetua said.

He was encouraged to share what he was finding on Twitter.

Most every day now, Perpetua scours various channels on Telegram, the secure messaging platform that also allows users to post info to communities of followers. All sorts of groups are posting info about the war: official Ukrainian military units, paramilitary outfits, Russian groups for and against Vladimir Putin, and civilians sharing details. "Some of the channels are toxic and awful," he warns. "I suggest no one look at it."

He's looking for information, trying to understand where the front lines are, the supply routes, who is advancing, who is retreating, and what is being blown up. He reads horrific accounts. He studies Ukrainian newspapers as best he can, checks in on a Russian propaganda YouTube channel, and hears individually from people he knows in Ukraine, including military personnel.

Here is one of Perpetua's interactive maps from April 15:

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I again don't go to Telegram or know Russian/Ukrainian etc. but find his work mostly credible, though it over-states repairable losses vs. write off's for armored vehicles especially (as with Oryx). The sourcing though is interesting. He certainly appears to be a Ukrainian patriot with solid tech analytic skills.

The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 32 Shahed UAVs, 3 S-300, 2 Kh-101 / Kh-555, and one Kalibr missile over night. https://t.co/yeZzxdnMQ9 pic.twitter.com/Hoqz0ZewMg

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 6, 2024

🗺️ Russian forces entered Semenivka from the south-eastern direction. The settlement is now contested. #RussiaUkraineWar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/tw8wpMXXH1

— Spatial Grounds (@spatialgrounds) April 6, 2024

In an interview with Yermak published on April 4, Politico wrote that, according to the Presidential Office head, "Russia is likely to make a big push on Kharkiv in May or June."

"In the Politico article, the discussion was about missile strikes on Kharkiv. The city is becoming…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 6, 2024

Discussion of rumors of Kharkiv offensive. What it would take for the orcs and probability that is a ploy to pull troops away from other fronts. Also,news of upgraded glide bombs being used by the orcs

In light of yesterday's Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields ... circling back to their drone attacks on refineries a few weeks ago and the Financial Times article about the US urging Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries. This small paragraph was easy to overlook but IMO important to note:

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.... Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west ..... This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.

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Not mentioned are some noteworthy details about the CPC oil pipeline I found interesing. The pipeline is 40 inches in diameter and carries almost all of Kazakhstan's oil production of 1.4 million BPD ... 1% of global oil supply. That's huge

Fresh US funding would turn this quickly into reality.

⚡🇪🇪 "Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur said his own government had found another million shells and rockets for Ukraine", - Forbes

❗️If we combine Czechs initiative, our buying capabilities and British, it would be possible to send Ukraine two-to-2.5 million shells this… pic.twitter.com/yxbxhUB4VH

— MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) April 6, 2024

benchmark said:

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In light of yesterday's Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields ... circling back to their drone attacks on refineries a few weeks ago and the Financial Times article about the US urging Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries. This small paragraph was easy to overlook but IMO important to note:

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.... Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west ..... This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.

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Not mentioned are some noteworthy details about the CPC oil pipeline I found interesing. The pipeline is 40 inches in diameter and carries almost all of Kazakhstan's oil production of 1.4 million BPD ... 1% of global oil supply. That's huge

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Kazakhstan might have an issue with that. Russia could probably say goodbye to Baikonur.

Id sure like to see all this talk of how to source the munitions changed to the ammo has been delivered.

An analysis of Luttwak's arguments/position on Nato involvement;

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SUMMARY

Edward Luttwak, a prominent military theorist, advocates for NATO intervention in Ukraine to prevent a catastrophic defeat for the West. This analysis explores Luttwak's influence, his call for NATO troops in Ukraine, and the potential consequences of such action, including the strategic positioning around Odessa and the broader implications for global safety and morality.
IDEAS:

• Luttwak's advocacy for NATO intervention in Ukraine highlights the complex interplay between military strategy and geopolitical stability.
• The comparison of Luttwak to Clausewitz and Dershowitz underscores the contentious nature of his influence in military and legal circles.
• The potential deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine raises questions about the morality and safety of military interventions.
• Luttwak's analysis is critiqued for possibly underestimating the risks of escalating conflict with Russia.
• The mention of NATO countries preparing for various force contingencies in Ukraine suggests a significant shift in Western military strategy.
• The framing of NATO intervention in the context of an imminent Chinese attack on Taiwan reveals Luttwak's broader geopolitical concerns.
• The speculation about Moldova being used as a staging area for operations in Odessa illustrates the tactical considerations behind military planning.
• The discussion of a potential NATO mission in Ukraine without necessarily sending troops highlights the alliance's strategic ambiguity.
• The notion of a Ukrainian partition as a diplomatic and military strategy reflects the complexities of achieving peace and territorial integrity.

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Ukraine needs more air defense and F-16s to combat Russian bombers launching glide bombs. “They are very simple in essence, so you cannot jam them, you cannot hide from them — the only way to protect yourself from them is to shoot down the bomber that carries this bomb,” said…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 7, 2024

⚡️ Air Force: Ukraine shoots down 17 Russian drones in central, eastern regions overnight.

According to the Air Force, the drones were launched from a base in the occupied Crimea.

Russia reportedly also launched two missiles. One hit Odesa.https://t.co/6BgOPJfF8n

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 7, 2024

B-1 83 said:

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"Russia has almost completely reconstituted its military capabilities, posing a renewed threat to Europe"

You can't make this stuff up……..or I guess you can.

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I'm only finding this quote frm US Deputy Sec of State Kurt Campbell?

1st link on Google: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-after-ukraine-losses-us-official-2024-4

B-1 83 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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B-1 83 said:

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"Russia has almost completely reconstituted its military capabilities, posing a renewed threat to Europe"

You can't make this stuff up……..or I guess you can.

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I'm only finding this quote frm US Deputy Sec of State Kurt Campbell?

1st link on Google: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-after-ukraine-losses-us-official-2024-4

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Yeah…….thats why we see T-55s and T-62s at the front. I guess "reconstituted" can have different meanings…..

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Restocked..with junk

Well their military capabilities sucked at the beginning of the war, so going from "we suck" to "we suck" isn't a long trip.

Maybe. But in strategic context the Sino-Russian alliance is clear:

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Campbell's remarks appear to be one of the most optimistic Western assessments of the Kremlin's productive drive to date.

In December, the British Army released an intelligence update stating that it would likely take Russia 10 years to replenish its ground troops with highly skilled forces, citing a "transition to a lower quality, higher quantity mass army."

In January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Russia was building an army that could attack NATO but would probably only achieve such a capability in "five or eight years."

Lithuania has placed that estimate between five and seven years.

Others say Russia is making steady progress. The Royal United Services Institute, a London-based security think tank, said in February that Moscow had strengthened its troops in Ukraine, going from a disorganized force of 360,000 in 2023 to 410,000 better-trained soldiers in 2024.

"Although the Russian military's aspiration to increase its size to 1.5 million troops has not been realized, recruiters are currently achieving almost 85% of their assigned troop recruitment goals to fight in Ukraine," the researchers wrote.

The report noted that Russia is also rapidly producing some 1,500 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles a year but is unlikely to maintain that capacity because much of this production comes from refurbishing older vehicles.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said the RUSI report indicates Russia may be able to maintain its heavy losses for another two years.

Others say Russia is making steady progress. The Royal United Services Institute, a London-based security think tank, said in February that Moscow had strengthened its troops in Ukraine, going from a disorganized force of 360,000 in 2023 to 410,000 better-trained soldiers in 2024.

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That reads like fiction.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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benchmark said:

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In light of yesterday's Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airfields ... circling back to their drone attacks on refineries a few weeks ago and the Financial Times article about the US urging Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries. This small paragraph was easy to overlook but IMO important to note:

Quote:

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.... Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west ..... This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.

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Not mentioned are some noteworthy details about the CPC oil pipeline I found interesing. The pipeline is 40 inches in diameter and carries almost all of Kazakhstan's oil production of 1.4 million BPD ... 1% of global oil supply. That's huge

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Kazakhstan might have an issue with that. Russia could probably say goodbye to Baikonur.

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Lukoil is a partner in TCO and other Kazakhstan O&G fields.

B-1 83 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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B-1 83 said:

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"Russia has almost completely reconstituted its military capabilities, posing a renewed threat to Europe"

You can't make this stuff up……..or I guess you can.

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I'm only finding this quote frm US Deputy Sec of State Kurt Campbell?

1st link on Google: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-almost-completely-reconstituted-after-ukraine-losses-us-official-2024-4

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Yeah…….thats why we see T-55s and T-62s at the front. I guess "reconstituted" can have different meanings…..

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Think they're trying to say they've learned a lot about modern warfare and getting better at it.

I think China will start sending them equipment sooner or later too

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Air defense is active in Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/7-april-air-defense-is-active-in-kherson-region

Did Kherson recently get air defense? Seems like they've been at the mercy of guided bombs with no AD reports for as long as I can remember.

Russia has aggressive intentions around its periphery. The only thing holding Putin back is the massive resources unexpectedly required for the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine falls, the proverbial dominoes will be next.

KAZAKHSTAN

74OA said:

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Russia has aggressive intentions around its periphery. The only thing holding Putin back is the massive resources unexpectedly required for the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine falls, the proverbial dominoes will be next.

KAZAKHSTAN

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German Anschluss with Austria is taking longer than expected, but make no mistake Czechoslovakia and Poland are next for Hitler Putin.

Battle for Chasiv Yar. Analysis, Implications, Projection
🧵Thread:

The battle for Chasiv Yar is a litmus test for both sides. Losing control of it will have dire results for Ukraine. Failure to capture Chasiv Yar on time would raise doubts about Russia's ability to seize Donbas pic.twitter.com/KXuaFmtPVZ

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 8, 2024

Interesting thread about the defense of Chasiv Yar.