That's a political take, not a strategic/tactical one.

notex said:

---

📷 Russian drones freely operating in the rear of Ukrainian Army, destroying valuable assets more frequently than usual in the recent days. It signals either a lack of means to counter these drones, lack of ammunition for AA, or the army became more careless under Sirskyi. https://t.co/OSYngJ4mh6

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 13, 2024

---

The loss of the two helos and the two pilots is a huge loss, They used the crap out of these things to transfer all kinds of support in men, munitions, aid, etc.

Willy talks about the use of the S70 which has been seen at least once back in June of 2023 over Ukraine. He does not get into if the ISR view is the platform that fired the cluster or precision strikes on the two remaining helos but I do not think they are. He also does not comment on training, where that truck should have assumed they were being watched and avoided returning to any base, though orcs may have already filmed that as well.

In the first view the helos were still hot and not sure if coming in or going out. My guess is coming in and they were followed. The precision strikes appear to be glide bombs which the russians have really increased use of lately including one that is 1500LB of explosives. 50KM from the front is easily in their range when air dropped.

I suspect our DOD searched extra hard to find the 300M to get the Ukes some ADA munitions and HIMARS which Ukes may have been completely out of as others have commented the orcs now have some increased air capabilities even without their AWACS. Hopefully our gov will get off its ass and get some significant support to the Ukes before things get worse. I am sure DOD would like to have one of the S70s even if its in pieces on the ground.

The good thing is, orcs have not figured out how to use this new capability to protect their armor and INF incursions from getting blown to bits by drone, Javelin, Stugna, etc, which will keep the lines still mostly stagnant.

Couple interesting articles.

https://jamestown.org/program/russias-uavs-and-ucavs-isr-and-future-strike-capabilities/

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/07/01/ucav-shaped-and-sized-as-a-russian-s-70-spotted-over-ukraine/

Ukraine in NATO stops Russian cold at current lines and there's lasting peace in that area.

Russia has no ability to mount an offensive so all that's left is years of fighting back and forth over a few miles for either side.

That should have happened years ago. To do it while a war is ongoing is not going to get passed. I'm afraid the Russians are catching up in the innovation curve and I'm not sure Ukraine can respond on their own.

Russian oil oligarchs keep dying under unusual circumstances. Latest victim found hanged in own office. This is just one symptom of the murderous system Ukraine is fighting to stay free of.

DEATHS

Stressboy said:

---

That should have happened years ago. To do it while a war is ongoing is not going to get passed. I'm afraid the Russians are catching up in the innovation curve and I'm not sure Ukraine can respond on their own.

---

I think it's in the NATO bylaws that a country under engagement cannot join in wartime. It's a moot point in discussing Ukraine becoming a signatory.

The drone aspect was coming but the war definitely acted as the catalyst to bring it into reality. I follow this conflict from many sides but the technological front, and especially drones, is one I take particular care to keep up on for both personal interest and professional reasons. I've waxed on about it before, but with the charge of AI into our lives mixed in and it gets even messier IMO. AI targeting is already real, current, and maturing every day. All the players in it right now, say that human decisions are still at the final step but this is humanity we are talking about. That final edge of a person saying Go/No Go for weapons release is going to blur if not be outright breached in our lifetimes. My personal prediction. We just can't help ourselves.

That all being said, Ukraine is pushing hard on producing ground combat drones to complement their aerial and naval versions. It's already sobering to see an FPV drone fly into a bunker but imagining one crawling into your fighting hole is nightmare fuel. Wild dichotomy to see trench warfare mixed roving bands of hunter/killer drones.

Teslag said:

---

Ukraine in NATO stops Russian cold at current lines and there's lasting peace in that area.

Russia has no ability to mount an offensive so all that's left is years of fighting back and forth over a few miles for either side.

---

Violates the NATO charter to admit a country that is currently at war if I am not mistaken.

It does, which is why it should be a part of any negotiated peace. The second Ukraine is in nato this war is permanently over.

Teslag said:

---

It does, which is why it should be a part of any negotiated peace. The second Ukraine is in nato this war is permanently over.

---

But is Ukraine without the Donbas, much of their rich agricultural land, power from Zaporizhia (sp?) nuke plant, and access to the O&G in the sea of Azov a viable economy? What is left to base their economy on at that point and to fund their military to NATO standards?

No idea if this number is accurate, but certainly Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are starting to do serious aggregate damage. IIRC, the refineries service mostly Russian domestic consumption, so the attacks are unlikely to affect Russia's crude oil exports. Still, this adds to the increasing burden average Russians are having to bear.

💥 In just 2 days, Ukrainian drone strikes on 3 giant oil refineries reduced Russia's refining capacity by 10%.pic.twitter.com/DOEUX7GkvN

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 13, 2024

txags92 said:

---

Teslag said:

---

It does, which is why it should be a part of any negotiated peace. The second Ukraine is in nato this war is permanently over.

---

But is Ukraine without the Donbas, much of their rich agricultural land, power from Zaporizhia (sp?) nuke plant, and access to the O&G in the sea of Azov a viable economy? What is left to base their economy on at that point and to fund their military to NATO standards?

---

Not to mention that is literally the one thing that Putin would never, ever agree to. Any other consideration we could possibly lie enough to ourselves that it could be feasible to bring to a negotiation table. Putin allowing Ukraine going to NATO....not even a dream we can convince ourselves in.

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Oh ok then. Never mind. I have completely changed my mind.

This super credible poster with years months days of credibility just assuaged all of my concerns in just a simple sentence, with the same BS he has been plugging since day zero, that still isnt true.

---

ETA: Difference between mine and 740As response is quite stark there. Yeah. Read his instead of mine.

Eliminatus said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Oh ok then. Never mind. I have completely changed my mind.

This super credible poster with years months days of credibility just assuaged all of my concerns in just a simple sentence, with the same BS he has been plugging since day zero, that still isnt true.

---

ETA: Difference between mine and 740As response is quite stark there. Yeah. Read his instead of mine.

---

I don't know why, but my post was just deleted--despite it being a repeat of the strategic rationale for helping Ukraine I've posted a variety of times here without mod objection. A reasonable on-topic response to an off-topic post shouldn't be dumped along with the OT post--particularly when the response doesn't repost (quote) the OT post.

I was actually in the middle of reading it and it might have been my fault. My posts were removed due to being off topic and I think your update was a reply to them. Feel free to repost and my apologies.

Infantry now are just as vulnerable as when we used to stand in blocks and shoot at one another. It's terrifying.

BadMoonRisin said:

---

I was actually in the middle of reading it and it might have been my fault. My posts were removed due to being off topic and I think your update was a reply to them. Feel free to repost and my apologies.

---

Nope. Either the mod takes another read and puts it back up or it stays down.

I just can't believe the aid we've given them so far hasn't had a noticeable impact on the economy. I mean, if a fraction of one year's defense budget given over two years, consisting of weapons and ordnance purchased and produced years or decades earlier didn't help, how could producing new stuff help?

Here are the losses I could identify today.https://t.co/lZLivxUud6 pic.twitter.com/6uT4VsmYH9

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) March 15, 2024

Interesting article on use of cheap sUAS in the Ukraine war and how the US/NATO need to step up and learn lessons.

Quote:

---

Filling the sUAS Experimentation Gap
How can the United States remain abreast of its competitors in the sUAS arms race? The Army should immediately put off-the-shelf drones in the hands of its junior leaders and empower them to rigorously test these capabilities. To do so requires three initial steps.

First, the Army should provide multiple combat units with large quantities of off-the-shelf commercial drones. This means skipping technology demonstrations, specially designed tests with contractor support, and major fielding events. Instead, it should purchase a variety of existing inexpensive sUAS with differing capabilities and put them in the hands of junior leaders. Rather than betting on top-down innovation from the sUAS program office and schoolhouse, let platoon and squad leaders determine how these systems can help them complete their training cycles. From reconnaissance platoons to infantry squads, mortar platoons, fire support teams, and artillery batteries, the Army should field these cheap drones to multiple elements of combined arms formations. Widespread distribution would allow units to use ongoing training events to determine what functions sUAS can best serve, what elements and echelons to integrate them with, and what tactics, techniques, and procedures work best. After a unit has experimented with these technologies in a cycle of live fires or a combat training center rotation, feedback from its soldiers could be formalized into standard operating procedures by the battalion or brigade staff and sent to schoolhouses to shape future training and doctrine.

---

Good idea.

REPLICATOR
MONEY

The law of unintended consequences is in play in a major way in Europe as a result of Putin's invasion. NATO is a good example.

SPENDING
AMMO

refinery destruction videos. there doesn't seem to be much of a response from orcs on air defense

The Ukrainian drones hit their targets with virtually no air defense. The Russian air defense is totally overwhelmed or overstretched.

Russia’s oil, gas, pipeline and refinery industry is a sitting duck in a shooting gallery.

Source of videos: Telegram / Mash and Astra pic.twitter.com/DNJRpK57sl

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 13, 2024

Stressboy said:

---

I'm too old to serve but I have 5 boys of military age and I don't want them anywhere near the hell playing out on these pages.



This! I have two and one ages out tomorrow (3/16). Its the younger one I worry about. Natural leader that would leave it all out there. Three more years for him.

---

Europe is to tap the proceeds from Russia's frozen state funds in western banks to help fund the war. Not as useful as outright seizing the money, but the irony is nonetheless delicious.

REVENUE

Just for grins. Some Russian election humor.

BALLOT

I disagree. The collective defense provision of NATO hinges on being attacked. If Poland were to Leroy Jenkins over the border to attack, too many members of NATO would vote against Article 5 invocation.

No one wants to get drug into a nuclear Holocaust because some frontier NATO members decide to YOLO into Russia.

If Russia wants to fracture NATO, they would be smart to do everything they can to antagonize an attack from Poland. That being said, Poland probably could beat them in a conventional engagement with non battlefield support from NATO partners at this point.

Russia's military has cashed in all their Risk card sets this turn, and they're going to be out of meeples by the time they consolidate Ukraine.