Today's SITREP.

That's 13 planes in 11 days. Russia is clearly taking more risk but we don't know their risk/reward calculus.

⚡️In the Mariupol and Avdiivka directions, the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine shot down two more 🇷🇺Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers. This is already three shot down Su-34s this day pic.twitter.com/TNxG14seV6

— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) February 29, 2024

I wonder if Ukraine has something other than the Patriots? That is a hell of a lot of planes to go down in short order.

The pilot losses are significant as well. If you believe the reports, Russia has very few best and brightest left.

docb said:

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I wonder if Ukraine has something other than the Patriots? That is a hell of a lot of planes to go down in short order.

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Y'all know most of this is just not true, right? Even osintdefender calling it out;

Claims by the Ukrainian Air Force since the Fall of Avdiivka have gotten Totally Ridiculous, while several Russian Military Aircraft including a A-50U Airborne-Early Warning and Control Aircraft have been Shot Down recently their continued claims of multiple Su-34 or… pic.twitter.com/Qo2hh6XPNy

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 29, 2024

2wealfth Man said:

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The pilot losses are significant as well. If you believe the reports, Russia has very few best and brightest left.

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Their training standards were roughly half of America's and that was before the war started. I think their pilot deaths have also been much higher than the historical average. But to be fair, just being flying bomb trucks won't take as much experience to be somewhat effective. There isn't any dogfighting or squadron level maneuvers happening right now.

In case anyone was wondering, the SU-34S has no real equivalent in NATO, but the strongest arguments can be made for late model F-15s being very roughly the most analogous.

Official Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine now infects all of social media. It's disheartening how many here uncritically buy into it.

"Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv's international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale," says the report, authored by a dozen international experts, mostly Europeans."

DISINFORMATION

92AG10 said:

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You do realize both the US and NATO have airborne platforms that can see everything flying in the region, right?

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Pretty standard pattern. News leaks out about a major happening (ie ship sinking, plane shot down, etc.). The Ukrainian sites make claims of a success for Ukraine, while the orc supporters repeatedly assure everybody that everything is fine. Eventually video or other evidence comes out confirming the event actually happened.

Reports of a failed Ukrainian spec ops amphibious assault on a small sand bar / island, resulting in deaths of dozens of Ukrainian soldiers. Not posting tweets here because they are graphic. OSINT tweeters not sure what strategic or tactical value that piece of land would have given the Ukrainians but the cost was obviously quite high.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Reports of a failed Ukrainian spec ops amphibious assault on a small sand bar / island, resulting in deaths of dozens of Ukrainian soldiers. Not posting tweets here because they are graphic. OSINT tweeters not sure what strategic or tactical value that piece of land would have given the Ukrainians but the cost was obviously quite high.

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I saw the video, appears they lost 3 or 4 assault boats about about 15 soldiers

the bigger strategic question is one we raised 6 months ago- that instead of Ukraine throwing their new NATO armored units against Zaporizhe Oblast they should have husbanded them and built up a massive armored strike force which could counter-attack any Russian breakthrough across the front.

clearly that was the better strategic move than having them blasted to bits in attritional warfare over the summer.

" Official Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine now infects all of social media. It's disheartening how many here uncritically buy into it.

"Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv's international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale," says the report, authored by a dozen international experts, mostly Europeans."


Do you think the Russians are the only one's doing this?

There is so much propaganda and social media campaigns by the West it's a new form of war.

Didn't see this. Reported 11 hours ago:

Quote:

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Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attack at Orlivka village, - Syrsky

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/29-february-ukrainian-troops-repelled-russian-attack-at-orlivka

Build It said:

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" Official Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine now infects all of social media. It's disheartening how many here uncritically buy into it.

"Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv's international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale," says the report, authored by a dozen international experts, mostly Europeans."


Do you think the Russians are the only one's doing this?

There is so much propaganda and social media campaigns by the West it's a new form of war.

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Yes and no.

Most of the Wests campaigns aim at getting real info into Russia and sending out verified information to counter the pure fiction coming from the vodka mill. The Ukes themselves post propaganda and underplay casualties, but that's just part of the game.

I'm sure there's propaganda, but I couldn't tell you where from the west outside of far right "media" paroting a lot of pro Russian BS. The majority of what I see is front line reporting and groups going out of their way to communicate verified numbers and statistics regarding ammo shortages, Russian equipment losses, and casualty estimates often double or triple verified by photo, video, and government intelligence agencies.

If you're seeing a lot of propaganda one way or the other on your feeds, that should tell you what type of "news" you've fallen for in general.

docb said:

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74OA said:

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Official Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine now infects all of social media. It's disheartening how many uncritically buy into it.

DISINFORMATION

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NORTEX! I knew he was a Russian disinformationist!

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LOL. now I have to get business cards made.

Here are losses I could identify for yesterdayhttps://t.co/lZLivxUud6 pic.twitter.com/6AO3tgRTpI

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) February 29, 2024

Build It said:

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" Official Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine now infects all of social media. It's disheartening how many here uncritically buy into it.

"Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv's international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale," says the report, authored by a dozen international experts, mostly Europeans."


Do you think the Russians are the only one's doing this?

There is so much propaganda and social media campaigns by the West it's a new form of war.

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There's a big difference between honestly advocating for your perspective versus deliberately spreading disinformation and outright lies.

The Russian government does the latter and that you can't differentiate between the two only serves to make my original point.

Exactly. And it's worth noting that this isn't some new form of warfare for the Russians. They've been doing it for decades and it was perfected by the Russians because unlike them, we had (or at least tried to have) a freely reporting press and ability to share information without reprisal. It was very hard for the CIA to counter that type of disinformation campaign in a country where the only source of media and narratives are quite literally government agencies which continues to this day with Russia Today, TASS, and a host of Russian twitter accounts (simplicious, amuse, rybar, Olga Bazova, etc). So naturally we never really put a lot of effort into those types of mass media subversion campaigns. Despite what Democrats of the time had said, McCarthy was right and the Russians had their hand in everything, from media figures to those in the arts and sciences. And that didn't stop just because the red banner got traded for a red white and blue flag.

Quote:

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Ukrainian military denied Russian control over Berdychi

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/29-february-ukrainian-military-denied-russian-control-over

Quote:

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Ukrainian military had 73 combat engagements with Russian forces near Petropavlivka and Tabayivka of Kharkiv region, Terny, Yampolivka of Donetsk region and Bilohorivka of Luhansk region, Ivanivske and Klischiyivka of Donetsk region, Berdychi, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomayske, Nevelske of Donetsk region, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiyivka, Pobyeda, Novomykhaylivka of Donetsk region, Robotyne of Zaporizhzhia region, at the east bank of Dnipro river in Kherson region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the evening report

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/29-february-ukrainian-military-had-73-combat-engagements

Waffledynamics said:

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Here are losses I could identify for yesterdayhttps://t.co/lZLivxUud6 pic.twitter.com/6AO3tgRTpI

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) February 29, 2024

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I count 72 orc losses with 56 of them by drone (at least by my old eyes on that fine print). 8 were unknown.

Thats 77%.....yes warfare has changed.

They are also using more airburst FPV drones increasing the efficiency by significant margins on dismounted or exposed troops. I didn't post the vids but there are a couple with orcs running down the road and the drone just comes up behind them and detonates about 10-15' behind and above with extreme lethality.

Report of SU-57 being used (pro-Ukraine as evidenced by the end).

If escorted by Su-34's etc. this could also explain some of the claims about increased shoot-downs.

3 part video of a battle outside of Avdiivka. Looks like some heavy Russian losses for that particular mission. Seemingly all artillery and maybe some drones.


Part one of recently released footage by 110th separate mechanized brigade, documenting the Russian assault on Avdiivka, where multiple tanks and armored vehicles were visibly disabled from ATGM / artillery hits.

Part 2 of recently published footage by the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, detailing the Russian assault on Avdiivka in late October, clear accurate artillery and mortar hits, a few vehicles collide with AT mines.

Part 3 (final part) of translated footage published by 110th OMBr of the Russian assault of Avdiivka, including footage of Russians looting their dead next to the infamous destroyed BTR-50

Another SU35 bit the dust over Mariupol. They've got something figured out for Russian aviation. I think that's 14 aircraft recently?

Russian InfoOperations at work in the US.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-election-trump-immigration-disinformation-tiktok-youtube-ce518c6cd101048f896025179ef19997

Wale delivers antitank mines to orc trench.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1b3soz8/ukrainian_kamikaze_grounddrone_loaded_with_tm62/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

docb said:

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Another SU35 bit the dust over Mariupol. They've got something figured out for Russian aviation. I think that's 14 aircraft recently?

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I don't think it was a coincidence that they shot down the A-50 and there hasn't been any flown since.

I think it might have been the last operational / crewable A-50 and Russia is now flying blind. Which allows the Ukes to push some SAM ambushes deeper than they could before.

How possible would it be to use large unmanned drones to be carriers for air to air missiles? Could that be something else they are now doing with the great advances they've made in drones? It sounds like Russia has pretty much sent their bombers on the same routes from the same bases most of the war. It could be possible the Ukes found a way to utilize our AWACs or similar to outline safety corridors from Russian SAM sites to send a mothership drone into range to ambush Russian bombers / fighters.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/GlxXqGVRfg

Crazy the speed of that drone that hits the vehicle. No wonder they are so difficult to deal with. The guys flying those things have gotten very good at it.

AgLA06 said:

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docb said:

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Another SU35 bit the dust over Mariupol. They've got something figured out for Russian aviation. I think that's 14 aircraft recently?

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I don't think it was a coincidence that they shot down the A-50 and there hasn't been any flown since.

I think it might have been the last operational / crewable A-50 and Russia is now flying blind. Which allows the Ukes to push some SAM ambushes deeper than they could before.

How possible would it be to use large unmanned drones to be carriers for air to air missiles? Could that be something else they are now doing with the great advances they've made in drones? It sounds like Russia has pretty much sent their bombers on the same routes from the same bases most of the war. It could be possible the Ukes found a way to utilize our AWACs or similar to outline safety corridors from Russian SAM sites to send a mothership drone into range to ambush Russian bombers / fighters.

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Most reporting says Russia started the war with roughly nine operable A-50s of several variants, with seven remaining after their losses. This article talks to why Russia may be exposing its AEW aircraft more now.

RISKS

Bradley and drones in cooperative engagement. (Graphic)

The defeat of the elite russian assault group of the 15th separate guards motor rifle brigade.
Warriors of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" stopped the enemy offensive, eliminating the invaders and their equipment in the Avdiivka direction!

This happened thanks to… pic.twitter.com/Ss6JDX8F6K

— ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) March 1, 2024

How old is that BTR?