They have a pipeline to China and do a robust business with India. Their economy grew last year. Largely funded by their natural resources sales. Unless China stops buying, Russia isn't going anywhere. They damn sure aren't ever giving up Crimea.

Build It said:

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They have a pipeline to China and do a robust business with India. Their economy grew last year. Largely funded by their natural resources sales. Unless China stops buying, Russia isn't going anywhere. They damn sure aren't ever giving up Crimea.

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Again, I didn't say SELLING it, I said EXTRACTING it.

Having a **** ton of resources that are in the ground is awesome...if you can afford to get them OUT of the ground and then refined to whatever grade is needed for selling.

Build It said:

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Russia has more natural resources than anyone else on the planet. They are pretty good at selling them despite our sanctions. Russian economic collapse is just more propaganda.

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And they needed western assistance and equipment to help them in the oil and natural gas fields. Without that, their production will drop just like Venezuelas did when they nationalized the multinational operations. And they are selling a good deal of their products at well below market price due to sanctions and lack of buyers in their traditional European markets. They are also sending many of the miners and industrial workers to Ukraine to be cannonfodder. Their labor supply was already trending the wrong way and this won't make that situation better. Spending a huge chunk of their national budget on equipment and materials that are being blown up in Ukraine instead of maintaining and modernizing their mining and oil and gas operations will lead to problems soon that will get worse going forward. All of these things will take time to show up and can be easily papered over by fake growth numbers in the short term. But they are happening and will eventually become undeniable the longer the war continues.

Build It said:

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They have a pipeline to China and do a robust business with India. Their economy grew last year. Largely funded by their natural resources sales. Unless China stops buying, Russia isn't going anywhere. They damn sure aren't ever giving up Crimea.

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When China knows that they are the only market available for the volumes of resources Russia used to send to Europe, don't kid yourself for a second that China isn't making sure they are buying those resources on terms that are extremely favorable to China. Russia isn't selling oil and natural gas to China and India at spot market prices.

Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

ETA: Speaking of HIMARs, there was another exceptionally effective hit recently by one or something similar. 60+ Russian KIA in one strike. That figure was actually claimed by Russians themselves at the scene. Plenty of photos and chatter from Russian telegrams confirms that event in my eyes. I know it's a pin drop in the bucket compared to this whole two years of butchery but still something just so visceral to have happen in one sec that it makes me wince. Knowing that essentially an entire unit was just swatted from existence like....nothing. Russian or not, it's sobering.

Not surprising, Maxim Kuzminov the Russian pilot that defected to Ukraine with a helicopter, shot to death in a parking garage in Spain.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68337794.amp

This guy would probably have been safer staying in Ukraine than moving to Spain.

bonfarr said:

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Not surprising, Maxim Kuzminov the Russian pilot that defected to Ukraine with a helicopter, shot to death in a parking garage in Spain.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68337794.amp

This guy would probably have been safer staying in Ukraine than moving to Spain.

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His mistake was he contacted his chick to come from Russia to meet him, I'm sure her phones were bugged and they figured out where he was living / staying in Spain. He should have used EU secret service to get her to the EU then secretly brought her to him, he kind of F Ed this up contacting her directly

I think we either have the ability to stage the launcher much closer to the front than the search and targeting radar and still operate in coordination, thus effectively extending the maximum range, or the Russians don't have sufficient warning when the missile is is active tracking and can't escape outside the attack envelope by running or defending by the time they notice it, or their training on countering an attack detection is inadequate.

My guess is actually the latter, mostly. Their missions push them too far forwards into the engagement envelope and unless they are adequately trained to recognize and counter the threats by knowing how and when to evade, they will get hit.

Also, of note recently: I saw a snippet of video on a recovered fragments of a North Korean made Missile launched by Russia and apparently shot down. Most of the parts were of western origin. It isn't like North Korea isn't under a bunch of import sanctions also, and they get their parts somehow. Very likely laundered through multiple third party transactions. Gov er m the volume of international trade, a lot of trade sanctions can be worked around with enough effort, limiting their effectiveness.
They are an impediment but not a critical or debilitating one.

North Korea never repeated a reunification invasion of the south because of sanctions. They failed to do so despite threatening it for 70 years because of western arms and training supplied to South Korea that was sufficient to ensure a likely costly defeat. This has implications in the Ukrainian conflict.

Also fresh vid of SU25 landing without gear down. Pilot seems fine but I am assuming its no longer capable and will be scrapped for parts.

A Training Ground in the Donetsk Region of Eastern Ukraine which was being used by the 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Ground Forces was Struck earlier today by several Rockets launched by Ukrainian M142 HIMARS, resulting in upwards of 65 Deaths and… pic.twitter.com/wdh6WDJ7hc

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 21, 2024

#BREAKING Iran has provided Russia with Alaround 400 powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters.
The missiles include many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said.
This road-mobile…

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) February 21, 2024

Not that the range changes much for Russia, I'm sure.

Quote:

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Russian military blogger, critical of Russian military command, Alexey Morozov "Murz", who revealed Russian losses in Avdiyivka at 16 thousands, has reportedly committed suicide

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/21-february-russian-military-blogger-critical-of-russian

What is the status of airspace control over Ukraine? Is it fairly static along the front? Does anyone have advantage at this point in time?

Athanasius said:

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What is the status of airspace control over Ukraine? Is it fairly static along the front? Does anyone have advantage at this point in time?

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More or less about the same as it always has been as far as I can tell, though it seems Ukraine has figured out a way to down multiple Russian jets in the Southeast and over the Sea of Azov. From what I can tell, Ukraine has been using their air force for AD and to fire longer range missiles like the Storm Shadows. I haven't seen a lot of reports of Uke air strikes on the frontlines for them, while there are regular reports of Russia using theirs a lot more frequently. For example, there are reports just about every day of them launching guided bombs towards parts of the Kherson oblast like Beryslav.

[url=https://www.twz.com/air/russias-spy-chief-says-recently-gunned-down-pilot-defector-was-a-moral-corpse][/url]More on the Russian defector shot dead hiding in Spain.

EXECUTED

MouthBQ98 said:

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I think we either have the ability to stage the launcher much closer to the front than the search and targeting radar and still operate in coordination, thus effectively extending the maximum range, or the Russians don't have sufficient warning when the missile is is active tracking and can't escape outside the attack envelope by running or defending by the time they notice it, or their training on countering an attack detection is inadequate.

My guess is actually the latter, mostly. Their missions push them too far forwards into the engagement envelope and unless they are adequately trained to recognize and counter the threats by knowing how and when to evade, they will get hit.

---

If it's a PAC-3, the missile's onboard radar doesn't start tracking until the terminal phase, about the last few sec. It's a hypersonic missile with VERY high mobility so there's not much a pilot could do even if they got a warning.

Yeah, pretty much once they detect the radar emission and can range it and determine they are anywhere near engagement range they need to turn and run as it is possible they have already been engaged. If they hesitate or press in, and a launch has been made, it is pretty much game over.

LMCane said:

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A Training Ground in the Donetsk Region of Eastern Ukraine which was being used by the 39th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Ground Forces was Struck earlier today by several Rockets launched by Ukrainian M142 HIMARS, resulting in upwards of 65 Deaths and… pic.twitter.com/wdh6WDJ7hc

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 21, 2024

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Well the training aids provided by the Ukrainians brought reality to the lesson because that orc filming has learned to utilize cover & concealment even when it seems the coast is clear as he isn't coming out of the woods.

Two light companies obliterated doesn't look like any structure or armor at the attack point just exposed soldiers, most probably never knew what hit them.

Ag with kids said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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I think we either have the ability to stage the launcher much closer to the front than the search and targeting radar and still operate in coordination, thus effectively extending the maximum range, or the Russians don't have sufficient warning when the missile is is active tracking and can't escape outside the attack envelope by running or defending by the time they notice it, or their training on countering an attack detection is inadequate.

My guess is actually the latter, mostly. Their missions push them too far forwards into the engagement envelope and unless they are adequately trained to recognize and counter the threats by knowing how and when to evade, they will get hit.

---

If it's a PAC-3, the missile's onboard radar doesn't start tracking until the terminal phase, about the last few sec. It's a hypersonic missile with VERY high mobility so there's not much a pilot could do even if they got a warning.

---

I wonder what radar they are using for target acquisition. Perhaps something other than the patriot battery's radar, which I imagine Russians radar warning receivers would recognize as a serious threat.

Eliminatus said:

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Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

ETA: Speaking of HIMARs, there was another exceptionally effective hit recently by one or something similar. 60+ Russian KIA in one strike. That figure was actually claimed by Russians themselves at the scene. Plenty of photos and chatter from Russian telegrams confirms that event in my eyes. I know it's a pin drop in the bucket compared to this whole two years of butchery but still something just so visceral to have happen in one sec that it makes me wince. Knowing that essentially an entire unit was just swatted from existence like....nothing. Russian or not, it's sobering.

---

Yes. PATRIOT is mobile, but not to the degree of HIMARS. Also, you could stip down the unit to the Control unit and Radar on it's own, but you would obviously lose self protection. The overall system is best used linked with other batteries to create a greater protection area.

Administration again reemphasizing that most of what is being asked for Ukraine actually will be spent here in the US.

INVESTMENT

Eliminatus said:

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Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

---

Not an expert, but I recall reading about how the Ukrainians set up a Patriot ambush when they recently knocked down a high-value Russian AEW aircraft and severely damaged an intel aircraft in a single engagement.

Apparently, Ukraine pushed a Patriot battery up close to the front lines to increase its reach, but left it inactivated. Ukraine then used another type of radar not associated with Patriot to watch the two Russian aircraft. With no Patriot radar emissions to alert them, the aircraft eventually ventured too close, at which point the real Patriot radar lit up and fired the missiles. With the two aircraft already inside the Patriot missile's reach, it didn't matter that they then noted the Patriot radar's emissions as it was too late to escape. The Patriot battery immediately displaced safely rearwards.

I'll try and find the source article, but it's been a while.

74OA said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

---

Not an expert, but I recall reading about how the Ukrainians set up a Patriot ambush when they recently knocked down a high-value Russian AEW aircraft and severely damaged an intel aircraft in a single engagement.

Apparently, Ukraine pushed a Patriot battery up close to the front lines to increase its reach, but left it inactivated. Ukraine then used another type of radar not associated with Patriot to watch the two Russian aircraft. With no Patriot radar emissions to alert them, the aircraft eventually ventured too close, at which point the real Patriot radar lit up and fired the missiles. With the two aircraft already inside the Patriot missile's reach, it didn't matter that they then noted the Patriot radar's emissions as it was too late to escape. The Patriot battery immediately displaced safely rearwards.

I'll try and find the source article, but it's been a while.

---

That's the gist of it - I read the same article.

74OA said:

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Eliminatus said:

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Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

---

Not an expert, but I recall reading about how the Ukrainians set up a Patriot ambush when they recently knocked down a high-value Russian AEW aircraft and severely damaged an intel aircraft in a single engagement.

Apparently, Ukraine pushed a Patriot battery up close to the front lines to increase its reach, but left it inactivated. Ukraine then used another type of radar not associated with Patriot to watch the two Russian aircraft. With no Patriot radar emissions to alert them, the aircraft eventually ventured too close, at which point the real Patriot radar lit up and fired the missiles. With the two aircraft already inside the Patriot missile's reach, it didn't matter that they then noted the Patriot radar's emissions as it was too late to escape. The Patriot battery immediately displaced safely rearwards.

I'll try and find the source article, but it's been a while.

---

Makes me wonder if the "other radar" watching and giving info to the Ukrainians is one of our airborne AWACS (or similar) platforms out over the Black Sea.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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Eliminatus said:

---

Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

---

Not an expert, but I recall reading about how the Ukrainians set up a Patriot ambush when they recently knocked down a high-value Russian AEW aircraft and severely damaged an intel aircraft in a single engagement.

Apparently, Ukraine pushed a Patriot battery up close to the front lines to increase its reach, but left it inactivated. Ukraine then used another type of radar not associated with Patriot to watch the two Russian aircraft. With no Patriot radar emissions to alert them, the aircraft eventually ventured too close, at which point the real Patriot radar lit up and fired the missiles. With the two aircraft already inside the Patriot missile's reach, it didn't matter that they then noted the Patriot radar's emissions as it was too late to escape. The Patriot battery immediately displaced safely rearwards.

I'll try and find the source article, but it's been a while.

---

Makes me wonder if the "other radar" watching and giving info to the Ukrainians is one of our airborne AWACS (or similar) platforms out over the Black Sea.

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It was reportedly a Ukrainian ground radar of some sort. The idea being it wouldn't cause alarm because it was well-understood by the target aircraft.

txags92 said:

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74OA said:

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Eliminatus said:

---

Possible 7th SU-34 shoot down being claimed.

Which got me thinking. I think there were a couple of Patriot knowledgeable folk here?

Is it safe to assume that a battery can de deployed with just the control and radar units and a single launcher? I am just wondering how much you can strip down a full battery and still do damage. We have seen the HIMARs shoot and scoot tactics and just curious as to how easy that is for a Patriot system.

---

Not an expert, but I recall reading about how the Ukrainians set up a Patriot ambush when they recently knocked down a high-value Russian AEW aircraft and severely damaged an intel aircraft in a single engagement.

Apparently, Ukraine pushed a Patriot battery up close to the front lines to increase its reach, but left it inactivated. Ukraine then used another type of radar not associated with Patriot to watch the two Russian aircraft. With no Patriot radar emissions to alert them, the aircraft eventually ventured too close, at which point the real Patriot radar lit up and fired the missiles. With the two aircraft already inside the Patriot missile's reach, it didn't matter that they then noted the Patriot radar's emissions as it was too late to escape. The Patriot battery immediately displaced safely rearwards.

I'll try and find the source article, but it's been a while.

---

Makes me wonder if the "other radar" watching and giving info to the Ukrainians is one of our airborne AWACS (or similar) platforms out over the Black Sea.

---

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/01/after-historic-shoot-down-why-russia-will-struggle-to-replace-its-a-50-aewc-plane/

Quote:

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That was the result, some reports and analysts have suggested, of a one-two deception by Ukraine's air defense units utilizing a Ukrainian S-300 (SA-10) battery in concert with a US-made Patriot PAC-3 unit.

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Now that makes sense. If the Patriot already has range, direction and altitude information from another radar to pre-program its search, it could acquire and fire rapidly.

Theoretically they could also fire the missiles to an area with no active radar, only pre programmed launch and flight parameters and have them pre-programmed to go active after a certain flight time/distance calculation and go what I believe they call "bulldog" using only it's own internal radar to attack the nearest target it finds. If it gets close enough to a target that doesn't change course substantially after launch, it would go active nearby and be hitting in seconds after going active.

Rossticus said:

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Build It said:

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Are really suggesting that medicare, SS should just be pissed away to pay for Ukraine?

I feel really bad for them but pissing away our future for them has to stop. This is Europe's fight.

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That's not at all what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that our actual fiscal issues are of such magnitude that what we're allocating to Ukraine is infinitesimal. Complaining about military aid to Ukraine from a basis of fiscal detriment is granularly nit-picky and has no comparative negative impact when viewed within the context of what is actually causing our deficit issues.

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Especially when it only comprises a small percentage of our actual defence budget. If it isn't to hurt our enemies, ensure our boys aren't spilling blood, and revamping our stockpiles in the process. What the hell is it for???

Iran just delivered hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia just as its inventory was dwindling, and just as Ukraine's supply of Patriot defensive missiles is running low.

GRIM

74OA said:

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Iran just delivered hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia just as its own inventory was dwindling, and just as Ukraine's supply of Patriot defensive missiles is running low.

GRIM

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It is a shame we or the Israelis didn't find a way to hammer that shipment or the facility making them in Iran as payback for the Houthi attacks and the attacks on our troops elsewhere over there.

Ukrainian HIMARS missile strike at Russian military at firing range in Podo-Kalynivka(Oleshky sands) in Kherson region https://t.co/ejrU55Y4qd

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 21, 2024

Not especially graphic, but it does show a lot of Russians getting hit by airburst GMLRS. Dunno if this is the strike discussed above or another one. Ive been the one calling them in before in Afghanistan. There's a tense and grim period during the time of flight where you watch the doomed people walk around the coordinates where the weapon is headed.

wow.