https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/19-february-significant-military-reinforcement-arrived-inQuote:
Significant military reinforcement arrived in Dzhankoi, including former Wagner PMC members
Coming up from the Crimea.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 1 hr ago by lb3
Coming up from the Crimea.
Waffledynamics said:
More info:The Russian planes have been shot down south of Russian-occupied Mariupol, around 80 km (50 miles) from the next Ukrainian Army position.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 19, 2024
Russian war bloggers such as Romanov have already confirmed one of the two shot down planes (the SU-35S) from this morning, and they do not… pic.twitter.com/yBPMKrSb0u
Post in reddit says orcs were using air support heavily in the taking of Avdiivka area. Maybe that was impetus for moving AD system(s) closer. The pilot appears dead in the sea and the other crash video doesn't appear to show any parachutes.
In addition it sounds like ukes hit at least one more O&G facility and possibly strike on airbase in Tanganrog russia.
Quote:
It is obvious that a certain weapon systems is hunting Russian planes in the entire area of Southern Ukraine, respectively the Sea of Azov.
Here's a recap of the battle of Advivka.
Interesting look at Ukraine's "wolfpack" USV tactics.
"It is apparent that Ukraine used 6-10 boat packs in the kamikaze USV attacks. Some USVs, possibly a reserve attack pack, stayed in the background at a distance of 2000-3000 yards, waiting for the results of the initial attack pack."
BLACK SEA
"It is apparent that Ukraine used 6-10 boat packs in the kamikaze USV attacks. Some USVs, possibly a reserve attack pack, stayed in the background at a distance of 2000-3000 yards, waiting for the results of the initial attack pack."
BLACK SEA
JFABNRGR said:Waffledynamics said:
More info:The Russian planes have been shot down south of Russian-occupied Mariupol, around 80 km (50 miles) from the next Ukrainian Army position.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 19, 2024
Russian war bloggers such as Romanov have already confirmed one of the two shot down planes (the SU-35S) from this morning, and they do not… pic.twitter.com/yBPMKrSb0u
Post in reddit says orcs were using air support heavily in the taking of Avdiivka area. Maybe that was impetus for moving AD system(s) closer. The pilot appears dead in the sea and the other crash video doesn't appear to show any parachutes.
In addition it sounds like ukes hit at least one more O&G facility and possibly strike on airbase in Tanganrog russia.
Hitting them in the pocketbook!
Today Sweden announced the largest support package to Ukraine yet. Package 15 will be worth 7,1 billion SEK (~$683 mln), bringing 🇸🇪 combined value of military assistance to Ukraine to 30 billion SEK. (~$2,9 bln). Continuing support is crucial for both 🇺🇦 and 🇸🇪 security. (1/6) pic.twitter.com/bq5slCIGxf
— Pål Jonson (@PlJonson) February 20, 2024
It's interesting that RFU continues to use General Zaluzhnyi in his video thumbnails even after he was replaced as the CO of their military. Wonder what the story is there?
So much accomplished by Ukraine with a comparatively small US/EU investment and zero loss of western soldiers.
"A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia's military modernization by 18 years, the source said."
REPORT
"A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia's military modernization by 18 years, the source said."
REPORT
What the US has allocated for this over the last few years is a small fraction of what we piss off annually on SS, Medicare, Medicaid, entitlements, etc.
*****ing and moaning about the expenditure in Ukraine is roughly the same level of fiscal awareness as raising hell about the cost of your Netflix subscription while still spending $1500 a month going out to eat on top of maxing your credit cards. We could stop all aid right now and the impact would be somewhere between negligible and unnoticeable.
There are major improvements to fiscal policy that need to be made but you're picking at the splinter while the plank remains firmly in place.
*****ing and moaning about the expenditure in Ukraine is roughly the same level of fiscal awareness as raising hell about the cost of your Netflix subscription while still spending $1500 a month going out to eat on top of maxing your credit cards. We could stop all aid right now and the impact would be somewhere between negligible and unnoticeable.
There are major improvements to fiscal policy that need to be made but you're picking at the splinter while the plank remains firmly in place.
On top of that this small investment now is:Rossticus said:
What the US has allocated for this over the last few years is a small fraction of what we piss off annually on SS, Medicare, Medicaid, entitlements, etc.
*****ing and moaning about the expenditure in Ukraine is roughly the same level of fiscal awareness as raising hell about the cost of your Netflix subscription while still spending $1500 a month going out to eat on top of maxing your credit cards. We could stop all aid right now and the impact would be somewhere between negligible and unnoticeable.
There are major improvements to fiscal policy that need to be made but you're picking at the splinter while the plank remains firmly in place.
- destroying an enemy of the United States and the world.
- Helping to protect a hard working sovereign people.
- Helping to protect a global exporter of food and fertilizer.
- Helping to replenish old stocks of munitions.
- Helping to vastly improve our own capabilities in weapon stocks, manufacturing of weapons, and doctrine.
- Somewhat in line with out commitment to protecting them when they gave up their nukes. (we should be doing more.)
- Somewhat trying to rectify our failure in 2014. (we should be doing more)
Huge losses for #Russia at a military camp in occupied #Ukraine.
— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) February 20, 2024
At least 65 killed today when #HIMARS struck the village of #Trudivske, just 10 miles (15km) east of #Volnovakha in #Donetsk. This report is from a Russian 'mil-blogger'. pic.twitter.com/bxK1vOMHD5
The United States has not lost squadrons of planes since 1972.Gilligan said:74OA said:
Russia loses six fighters in just three days.
LOSSES
Expensive 48 hours!
the United States has not lost major warships since 1945.
Russia has lost both in the last month.
Um I do not believe those numbers. Either way, the troops# really does not matter to Russia, they still out number them 3-1 at least. And that is with just what they have in uniform right now. They have 130 million people or more. A lot of the Russians that have died have been prisoners and they have around 100k MORE prisoners recruited to join the Wagner group, once they figure out who will be in control of the group74OA said:
So much accomplished by Ukraine with a comparatively small US/EU investment and zero loss of western soldiers.
"A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia's military modernization by 18 years, the source said."
REPORT
I think Ukraine has lost a lot more men than they are saying. Well over 100k in my opinion.
I do not believe the setback at all, if anything this is just firing up Russia's war machine, factories humming. Most of the equipment they have burned through has been their reserve garbage. Now they have China, Iran, North Korea supplying them with cheap military equipment that costs a fraction to make compared to Ukraine (The west basically) plus their own factories are full bore or will be.
Ukraine has ran in to a road block, we (USA) might not give them aid for awhile, with our border crisis. We will be in gridlock on the aid package. They'll probably get something but it wont be near the 60 billion Dems want to give them. It will be up to Europe to supply them and they will run dry eventually
I do not see Ukraine winning this. Within the next couple years Russia will have full control of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. Europe is better off saving their money and building up their defenses.
jbeaman88 said:
It's interesting that RFU continues to use General Zaluzhnyi in his video thumbnails even after he was replaced as the CO of their military. Wonder what the story is there?
I wondered that, too. I just guess he likes the guy
So, you think the US intel report is either lying about the numbers or grossly incompetent? Until that's proven I find it far more credible than someone on the internet simply dismissing what he doesn't want to hear.2023NCAggies said:Um I do not believe those numbers. Either way, the troops# really does not matter to Russia, they still out number them 3-1 at least. And that is with just what they have in uniform right now. They have 130 million people or more. A lot of the Russians that have died have been prisoners and they have around 100k MORE prisoners recruited to join the Wagner group, once they figure out who will be in control of the group74OA said:
So much accomplished by Ukraine with a comparatively small US/EU investment and zero loss of western soldiers.
"A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia's military modernization by 18 years, the source said."
REPORT
I think Ukraine has lost a lot more men than they are saying. Well over 100k in my opinion.
I do not believe the setback at all, if anything this is just firing up Russia's war machine, factories humming. Most of the equipment they have burned through has been their reserve garbage. Now they have China, Iran, North Korea supplying them with cheap military equipment that costs a fraction to make compared to Ukraine (The west basically) plus their own factories are full bore or will be.
Ukraine has ran in to a road block, we (USA) might not give them aid for awhile, with our border crisis. We will be in gridlock on the aid package. They'll probably get something but it wont be near the 60 billion Dems want to give them. It will be up to Europe to supply them and they will run dry eventually
I do not see Ukraine winning this. Within the next couple years Russia will have full control of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. Europe is better off saving their money and building up their defenses.
Ukraine has undoubtedly suffered serious casualties and likely in the range you suggest, but far less than has Russia. However, Ukraine's minimum draft age is still at 27 years, so it's nowhere near the end of its manpower tether.
No, the armor Russia has lost is largely its modern frontline vehicles it invaded with and initially reinforced with. The fact that it has been forced to take very old armor models from deep storage and use it on the frontlines is concrete evidence that Russia cannot replace its losses with modern models.
Ukraine has performed marvels with the previous smaller aid packages. If anywhere near the requested US $60B comes through, it will be enough for at least the next year to two years when combined with the billions Europe is providing--which is even more than the US has given.
Time is not on Russia's side. It is working to convince people like you that it is, but most analysts say it cannot keep up a wartime economy over the mid-term without whole sectors of its economy shutting down.
The only thing we agree on is that the US holds Ukraine's future as a free country in its hands. The only thing that will outright guarantee a Russian victory is us walking away, and it is an absolute falsehood to say we can't afford to secure our border and help Ukraine at the same time. The two are not mutually exclusive.
The truth: AID TOTALS
Build It said:
Are really suggesting that medicare, SS should just be pissed away to pay for Ukraine?
I feel really bad for them but pissing away our future for them has to stop. This is Europe's fight.
If you actually read what he posted instead of what you wanted to hear, you'd realize how silly this post is...
Yes, Russia has and is currently losing a lot of old refurbished equipment. That's because they need to replace the front line stuff that got destroyed in huge numbers and they lack the capacity to replace it. You don't have to take my word for it though, people have been helpful and documented it.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
ETA: Decided my post was a huge distraction overall. My bad everyone!
People looking at casualty numbers and trying to decide who can outlast who based on that are looking at it wrong in my opinion. Neither side will "run out" of people. They may run out of the will to fight or the capacity to produce weapons and ordnance. They may suffer a military or societal collapse or a mutiny (successful this time).
Russia lost over 8 million men in WWII, not counting civilian casualties. Neither side will ever come near that kind of death toll in this conflict
Russia lost over 8 million men in WWII, not counting civilian casualties. Neither side will ever come near that kind of death toll in this conflict
You are right. We are set in our outlooks.
Indeed. Which is fine! We all see different stuff and have different ways of thinking about this hunk of dirt we are floating on.2023NCAggies said:
You are right. We are set in our outlooks.
I also think I was triggered as I have just gotten off Reddit and that circle of idiots makes TA look saintly and supremely educated in comparison somehow. Wonder what that says about me, the idiot who wallows in it constantly...
This...all of this. And I will just add that Russia today is not the Russia that was able to pour bodies into a conflict in 1944. They are doing this largely with prisoners and men conscripted from the outer territories to avoid bringing the full impact of the war home to the masses in Moscow and St Petersburg. Even before this war started, Russia was in a demographic nightmare. They had an abyssmal birth rate, a terribly unhealthy population, a steady drain of their best and brightest emigrating out of the country, and a very low life expectancy in their population. Taking the best and most able of their prisoners...who were previously used for all manner of hard labor... and sending them to Ukraine to stack their bodies isn't helping their economy. Taking the best and most able of their labor aged population from the outlying areas where most of the agricultural and industrial production happens and sending them to Ukraine to stack on top of the dead prisoners isn't helping their economy. Sending a fresh wave of their best and brightest fleeing the country to avoid conscription isn't helping their economy. And eliminating the leadership of their most successful and capable military unit (Wagner) over personal feuds takes away a valuable tool from their armed forces. All they have left are more and more waves of bodies, and as long as they keep focusing them on pointless attacks and we keep the Ukrainians supplied with the ammunition and tools necessary to stack them, they have no hope of a meangingful advance beyond the existing lines.74OA said:So, you think the US intel report is either lying about the numbers or grossly incompetent? Until that's proven I find it far more credible than someone on the internet simply dismissing what he doesn't want to hear.2023NCAggies said:Um I do not believe those numbers. Either way, the troops# really does not matter to Russia, they still out number them 3-1 at least. And that is with just what they have in uniform right now. They have 130 million people or more. A lot of the Russians that have died have been prisoners and they have around 100k MORE prisoners recruited to join the Wagner group, once they figure out who will be in control of the group74OA said:
So much accomplished by Ukraine with a comparatively small US/EU investment and zero loss of western soldiers.
"A declassified U.S. intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops, or nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began, a source familiar with the intelligence said on Tuesday. The report also assessed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia's military modernization by 18 years, the source said."
REPORT
I think Ukraine has lost a lot more men than they are saying. Well over 100k in my opinion.
I do not believe the setback at all, if anything this is just firing up Russia's war machine, factories humming. Most of the equipment they have burned through has been their reserve garbage. Now they have China, Iran, North Korea supplying them with cheap military equipment that costs a fraction to make compared to Ukraine (The west basically) plus their own factories are full bore or will be.
Ukraine has ran in to a road block, we (USA) might not give them aid for awhile, with our border crisis. We will be in gridlock on the aid package. They'll probably get something but it wont be near the 60 billion Dems want to give them. It will be up to Europe to supply them and they will run dry eventually
I do not see Ukraine winning this. Within the next couple years Russia will have full control of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. Europe is better off saving their money and building up their defenses.
Ukraine has undoubtedly suffered serious casualties and likely in the range you suggest, but far less than has Russia. However, Ukraine's minimum draft age is still at 27 years, so it's nowhere near the end of its manpower tether.
No, the armor Russia has lost is largely its modern frontline vehicles it invaded with and initially reinforced with. The fact that it has been forced to take very old armor models from deep storage and use it on the frontlines is concrete evidence that Russia cannot replace its losses with modern models.
Ukraine has performed marvels with the previous smaller aid packages. If anywhere near the requested US $60B comes through, it will be enough for at least the next year to two years when combined with the billions Europe is providing--which is even more than the US has given.
Time is not on Russia's side. It is working to convince people like you that it is, but most analysts say it cannot keep up a wartime economy over the mid-term without whole sectors of its economy shutting down.
The only thing we agree on is that the US holds Ukraine's future as a free country in its hands. The only thing that will outright guarantee a Russian victory is us walking away, and it is an absolute falsehood to say we can't afford to secure our border and help Ukraine at the same time. The two are not mutually exclusive.
there is a saying… we don't have a budget issue, we have a prioritization issue. I think the benefits of supporting Ukraine significantly outweigh much of the junk we spend both domestically and internationally. Like Vietnam, we don't have the will to help Ukraine win, only a war of attrition which Ukraine cannot sustain. Sh*t or get off the pot! I hope we give Ukraine the tools they need to win. This will put Putin on his heels driven partly by internal political instability. Putin will negotiate to save face, (for much less than for Crimea). Truthfully, it was probably a good strategy to let this drag out, but now is the time to press the accelerator. Politics aside, I think if both Biden and Trump would express this view this war would be over in less than 12 months.
People need to look past Moscow's bogus economic numbers and look at the underlying condition of the Russian economy. The real question is if we will lose our nerve before Russia loses the economic war.
FAIL
FAIL
This ^SamjamAg said:
… we don't have a budget issue, we have a prioritization issue. I think the benefits of supporting Ukraine significantly outweigh much of the junk we spend both domestically and internationally.
If the fiscal litmus test for every gov program is rank-ordered on taxpayer ROI - where does Ukraine fall in the ROI queue? Hopefully higher than the $4B/yr in SNAP benifis taxpayers spend on soda pop subsidies.
Russia has more natural resources than anyone else on the planet. They are pretty good at selling them despite our sanctions. Russian economic collapse is just more propaganda.
Build It said:
Russia has more natural resources than anyone else on the planet. They are pretty good at selling them despite our sanctions. Russian economic collapse is just more propaganda.
If we would quit buying junk from China and India it would hurt them more than the sanctions. That's who we should be sanctioning if we want to hurt Russia. That is the only way to curtail how much oil they buy. China and India are the two most ruthless countries in the world.
Why? Because, unlike the article I posted, you just say so without any supporting substantiation? There are sectors of the Russian economy that are under high strain already. Analysts who actually know what they're talking about say collapse of those sectors, if not necessarily the entire economy, is highly likely if the war continues for a year or two more.Build It said:
Russia has more natural resources than anyone else on the planet. They are pretty good at selling them despite our sanctions. Russian economic collapse is just more propaganda.
Having them and extracting them economically are 2 different things...Build It said:
Russia has more natural resources than anyone else on the planet. They are pretty good at selling them despite our sanctions. Russian economic collapse is just more propaganda.
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