***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,548,453 Views | 47728 Replies | Last: 14 hrs ago by 74OA
benchmark
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74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same argument for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
GAC06
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That's the idea.
nortex97
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
A simpler solution would be to also return a slice of Western Ukraine to Hungary/Poland. Nato/EU membership, more defensible, etc. This has been proposed many times, and is historically essentially the case. 10 years ago this was not really a controversial assertion.


Quote:

Zakarpattia 's distinctiveness is rooted, in part, in its physical geography . Located across the formidable Carpathians from the rest of the country , it lies in and around the Danube basin , also known as the Pannonian Plain . As such, it is much more easily accessible from Budapest , Bratislava, and even Vienna than it is from Kyiv (Kiev), let alone Moscow.


Historical-geographical patterns also helped explain the " nationalist " political regionalization of Ukraine. The main part of this region , dubbed " Core Ukraine" on the map above , was long under Polish-Lithuanian rule , but came under Russian rule with the partition of Poland in the late 1700s . Ukraine 's Far West , on the other hand , passed from Polish to Austrian (Habsburg-Empire) rule , forming the eastern portion of its Galicia region. It was returned to Poland after World War I, and did not become part of the Soviet Union until the end of World War II.
Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
74OA
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Why not, indeed. Once successful, Russia will only be encouraged to keep going and any "peace" will be built on accepting the subjugation or dismemberment of more independent countries.

More to the point for us and the rest of Europe, deterring a resurgent and expansionist Russia will be far more expensive than the comparatively modest cost of helping Ukraine retain its independence.

Those advocating peace built on someone else's misery have zero geopolitical foresight and little personal humanity.
AgLA06
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Did wonders to placate Hitler.
TheGreatEscape
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Oh my…Russia is not agnostic/atheistic pantheistic untethered Hitler. Nor is Russia untethered communist.
It is like comparing 15th, 16th, and 17th Century France before the rise of the godless 18th century French Revolutionaries. Those were different French.
GAC06
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Yes, Russia is an upright God fearing country with an upright God fearing church that is in no way an arm of Putin's authority.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-patriarch-kirill-dying-ukraine-sins/32052380.html
Ag with kids
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
Give Putin time. One at a time...
74OA
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Thanks again, Vlad.

"Once entry has been approved, Stockholm is widely expected to make a substantial military contribution to NATO, especially across air and sea domains. Carl Bildt, a former Swedish Prime Minister, estimated that the Baltic Sea Region could be patrolled by more than 250 fighter jets once Swedish and Finnish fleets are active in the alliance, while the island of Gotland could become a NATO forward operating base. The island is of strategic importance as it sits in the heart of the Baltic Sea between Sweden and the Russian province of Kaliningrad."

NATO

Ag with kids
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nortex97 said:

benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
A simpler solution would be to also return a slice of Western Ukraine to Hungary/Poland. Nato/EU membership, more defensible, etc. This has been proposed many times, and is historically essentially the case. 10 years ago this was not really a controversial assertion.


Quote:

Zakarpattia 's distinctiveness is rooted, in part, in its physical geography . Located across the formidable Carpathians from the rest of the country , it lies in and around the Danube basin , also known as the Pannonian Plain . As such, it is much more easily accessible from Budapest , Bratislava, and even Vienna than it is from Kyiv (Kiev), let alone Moscow.


Historical-geographical patterns also helped explain the " nationalist " political regionalization of Ukraine. The main part of this region , dubbed " Core Ukraine" on the map above , was long under Polish-Lithuanian rule , but came under Russian rule with the partition of Poland in the late 1700s . Ukraine 's Far West , on the other hand , passed from Polish to Austrian (Habsburg-Empire) rule , forming the eastern portion of its Galicia region. It was returned to Poland after World War I, and did not become part of the Soviet Union until the end of World War II.
Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
I'm sure that Ukraine would agree to become completely landocked and dependent on Russia for access to the Black Sea.

And give up 3 of their 4 biggest cities...
pagerman @ work
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same argument for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?

They're next.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
As long as the "peoples" are russian, because it would completely suck for everybody else
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Ag with kids
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agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
As long as the "peoples" are russian, because it would completely suck for everybody else
They would be Russians whether they like it or not...
Teslag
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nortex97 said:

benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
A simpler solution would be to also return a slice of Western Ukraine to Hungary/Poland. Nato/EU membership, more defensible, etc. This has been proposed many times, and is historically essentially the case. 10 years ago this was not really a controversial assertion.


Quote:

Zakarpattia 's distinctiveness is rooted, in part, in its physical geography . Located across the formidable Carpathians from the rest of the country , it lies in and around the Danube basin , also known as the Pannonian Plain . As such, it is much more easily accessible from Budapest , Bratislava, and even Vienna than it is from Kyiv (Kiev), let alone Moscow.


Historical-geographical patterns also helped explain the " nationalist " political regionalization of Ukraine. The main part of this region , dubbed " Core Ukraine" on the map above , was long under Polish-Lithuanian rule , but came under Russian rule with the partition of Poland in the late 1700s . Ukraine 's Far West , on the other hand , passed from Polish to Austrian (Habsburg-Empire) rule , forming the eastern portion of its Galicia region. It was returned to Poland after World War I, and did not become part of the Soviet Union until the end of World War II.
Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.



Russia doesn't want NATO expanding to its borders but your solution expands Russia to…



NATO's borders
ABATTBQ11
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Ag with kids said:

agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
As long as the "peoples" are russian, because it would completely suck for everybody else
They would be Russians whether they like it or not...


"Everyone is Russian, and we need to liberate them."

/Russia
Ulysses90
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Ag with kids said:

agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
As long as the "peoples" are russian, because it would completely suck for everybody else
They would be Russians whether they like it or not...


The "Russian oriented" or "Russian speaking people" trope is repeated without question by western news media who have no interest in understanding the history of Russian efforts from the 18th century and even earlier to quash Ukrainian national identity.

Within the past 100 years, Stalin. tried to exterminate Ukraine through famine but only succeeded in killing 3.5 million. The holodomor was after the prosecution and execution or exile of "kulaks" which numbered into the millions across the USSR with almost half being Ukrainian. By 1930, the meaning of Kulak had expended to include anyone who had ever hired another person and paid them, ever for seasonal help with the harvest (from the Gulag Archipeligo).

On the eve of Nazi invasion Stalin had almost 130,000 Ukrainians imprisoned within Ukraine being tortured over months to years to elicit a signed confession of Anti Soviet Agitation under Article 58 of the Soviet criminal code. When Hitler did invade, Stalin had the NKVD execute 41,000 Ukrainian political prisoners in their cells and another 80,000 were exiled to the Stans and never returned.

Even after Stalin and through Kruschev, Brezhnev, Chernenko, and Andropov, all schools in eastern Ukraine were taught exclusively in the Russian language despite Ukrainian being spoken at home. After 50 years of Soviet Russian rule, a partially successful genocide, and exiting millions that were suspected of harboring nationalist sympathies, virtually nobody was left in eastern Ukraine that still spoke Ukrainian even at home.

I have a friend from Kharkiv in his mid 50s who understands Ukrainian but only speaks Russian because that was all he was allowed to speak in public growing up. He doesn't consider himself to be Russian or have any cultural connection to Russia. Russian is just the language of the conqueror and occupier.

When Ukrainians voted for independence from Russia in 1994, the vote for independence was over 90% in aggregate but still over 70% in the Donbas and over 55% in Crimea. Any claimed "Russophile majority" in those regions only exists to the extent that a knife is at their throats.
74OA
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Ag with kids said:

nortex97 said:

benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
A simpler solution would be to also return a slice of Western Ukraine to Hungary/Poland. Nato/EU membership, more defensible, etc. This has been proposed many times, and is historically essentially the case. 10 years ago this was not really a controversial assertion.


Quote:

Zakarpattia 's distinctiveness is rooted, in part, in its physical geography . Located across the formidable Carpathians from the rest of the country , it lies in and around the Danube basin , also known as the Pannonian Plain . As such, it is much more easily accessible from Budapest , Bratislava, and even Vienna than it is from Kyiv (Kiev), let alone Moscow.


Historical-geographical patterns also helped explain the " nationalist " political regionalization of Ukraine. The main part of this region , dubbed " Core Ukraine" on the map above , was long under Polish-Lithuanian rule , but came under Russian rule with the partition of Poland in the late 1700s . Ukraine 's Far West , on the other hand , passed from Polish to Austrian (Habsburg-Empire) rule , forming the eastern portion of its Galicia region. It was returned to Poland after World War I, and did not become part of the Soviet Union until the end of World War II.
Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
I'm sure that Ukraine would agree to become completely landocked and dependent on Russia for access to the Black Sea.

And give up 3 of their 4 biggest cities...
.........and additionally surrender all of its most productive agricultural land, most of its mineral resources, much of its industrial infrastructure and a huge percentage of its population while also losing its strategic geographical depth and becoming an economic cripple permanently unable to resist any future Russian intimidation. The only value of this "peace plan" is as an insight to the morals of those who advocate for it.
74OA
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Ulysses90 said:

Ag with kids said:

agent-maroon said:

Quote:

Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
As long as the "peoples" are russian, because it would completely suck for everybody else
They would be Russians whether they like it or not...


The "Russian oriented" or "Russian speaking people" trope is repeated without question by western news media who have no interest in understanding the history of Russian efforts from the 18th century and even earlier to quash Ukrainian national identity.

Within the past 100 years, Stalin. tried to exterminate Ukraine through famine but only succeeded in killing 3.5 million. The holodomor was after the prosecution and execution or exile of "kulaks" which numbered into the millions across the USSR with almost half being Ukrainian. By 1930, the meaning of Kulak had expended to include anyone who had ever hired another person and paid them, ever for seasonal help with the harvest (from the Gulag Archipeligo).

On the eve of Nazi invasion Stalin had almost 130,000 Ukrainians imprisoned within Ukraine being tortured over months to years to elicit a signed confession of Anti Soviet Agitation under Article 58 of the Soviet criminal code. When Hitler did invade, Stalin had the NKVD execute 41,000 Ukrainian political prisoners in their cells and another 80,000 were exiled to the Stans and never returned.

Even after Stalin and through Kruschev, Brezhnev, Chernenko, and Andropov, all schools in eastern Ukraine were taught exclusively in the Russian language despite Ukrainian being spoken at home. After 50 years of Soviet Russian rule, a partially successful genocide, and exiting millions that were suspected of harboring nationalist sympathies, virtually nobody was left in eastern Ukraine that still spoke Ukrainian even at home.

I have a friend from Kharkiv in his mid 50s who understands Ukrainian but only speaks Russian because that was all he was allowed to speak in public growing up. He doesn't consider himself to be Russian or have any cultural connection to Russia. Russian is just the language of the conqueror and occupier.

When Ukrainians voted for independence from Russia in 1994, the vote for independence was over 90% in aggregate but still over 70% in the Donbas and over 55% in Crimea. Any claimed "Russophile majority" in those regions only exists to the extent that a knife is at their throats.
In 1994 Kiev also voted to give up its ex-Soviet nukes to Russia because Moscow formally signed an agreement recognizing Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and because the US, UK, France and Russia also provided formal assurances that they'd protect Ukraine from subsequently being attacked after it surrendered its nuclear deterrent.

Russia's word is of course trash, but does our word mean nothing, too?
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 35 Shahed drones overnight
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/2-january-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-35-of-35-shahed
74OA
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Interesting look at a Russian cruise missile dispensing defensive flares in flight over Ukraine.
KH-101

Another huge Russian barrage kicks off the new year in Ukraine and other notes from the front.
SITREP
74OA
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Move-Countermove. Russia reacts to initial Ukrainian success with USVs by fortifying harbors and improving surface warfare readiness, particularly defensive deck guns. In turn, Ukraine now reacts by installing defense suppression rockets on its kamikaze USVs to disrupt deck gunnery and give the drones a better chance of closing to impact.

SEA BABY
2wealfth Man
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74OA said:

Ukraine's drone boats are now firing rockets at Russian ships.

SEA BABY


Quote:

The Sea Baby USV depicted in the UP video was likely armed with unguided RPV-16 thermobaric rocket launchers, Andrii Ryzhenko, a retired Ukrainian Navy captain told The War Zone
.
AtticusMatlock
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Jan 2: Russa announces deployment of new anti-artillery radar.



Jan 3: Ukrainian drone spots new anti-artillery radar and HIMARS blows it up within 24 hours of deployment.
2wealfth Man
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USAFAg
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AtticusMatlock said:

Jan 2: Russa announces deployment of new anti-artillery radar.



Jan 3: Ukrainian drone spots new anti-artillery radar and HIMARS blows it up within 24 hours of deployment.


Do you think they saw it coming...lol

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
MouthBQ98
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It is my understanding that that equipment was extremely expensive phased array type radar. Might be valued at 9 figures…before it was shredded.
P.U.T.U
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Each is estimated to be worth $250,000,000
74OA
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Interesting clip of parachute recovery of Russian drone followed by the destruction of it and its ground crew.

IMPACT
EastSideAg2002
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P.U.T.U said:

Each is estimated to be worth $250,000,000
Looks like our TPQ53s
PJYoung
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74OA
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Big Russia-Ukraine POW exchange and other notes.

UPDATES
2000AgPhD
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nortex97 said:

benchmark said:

74OA said:

TRUTH
Quote:

Also this .... "Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land."
If so, why not the same arguement for Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia?
A simpler solution would be to also return a slice of Western Ukraine to Hungary/Poland. Nato/EU membership, more defensible, etc. This has been proposed many times, and is historically essentially the case. 10 years ago this was not really a controversial assertion.


Quote:

Zakarpattia 's distinctiveness is rooted, in part, in its physical geography . Located across the formidable Carpathians from the rest of the country , it lies in and around the Danube basin , also known as the Pannonian Plain . As such, it is much more easily accessible from Budapest , Bratislava, and even Vienna than it is from Kyiv (Kiev), let alone Moscow.


Historical-geographical patterns also helped explain the " nationalist " political regionalization of Ukraine. The main part of this region , dubbed " Core Ukraine" on the map above , was long under Polish-Lithuanian rule , but came under Russian rule with the partition of Poland in the late 1700s . Ukraine 's Far West , on the other hand , passed from Polish to Austrian (Habsburg-Empire) rule , forming the eastern portion of its Galicia region. It was returned to Poland after World War I, and did not become part of the Soviet Union until the end of World War II.
Such borders would likely lead to a longer term peace/successful outcome for the peoples involved.
Russian-Oriented Ukraine even LOOKS like Czechoslovakia...
AtticusMatlock
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I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding of what Russia was actually intending when they started this war. Ukraine is not the goal, they are in the way. The paranoid nationalists running Russia are super anal about invasion routes and national defense. Everything in western Russia is flat. It's indefensible land. The goal is transnistria, moldova, and parts of Romania and poland. That secures the eastern part of the carpathians.
agent-maroon
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P.U.T.U said:

Each is estimated to be worth $250,000,000

Normally have to sink a naval vessel to destroy something that expensive. I wonder if the genius that authorized this system's use has fallen out of a window yet?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
AgLA06
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Nope. Nothing but a made up excuse to grab people and resources to slow a dying, mismanaged Russia.
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