***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,552,578 Views | 47733 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by 74OA
JFABNRGR
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T90 destroyed by Drone Drops near Podivka, unless the display is spoofed or I don't know how to read a display (which is very possible), I believe this puts the drone pilot/operator 20KM behind enemy lines and that's from the left bank of the river.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/170ay3x/a_russian_t90m_is_heavily_damaged_after_munitions/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
74OA
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

48 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian shelling at the cafe and grocery store in Groza village of Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-48-killed-6-wounded-as-result-of-russian-shelling
BARBARIANS
B-1 83
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That has to be targeting and not just bad artillery.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
AgLA06
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B-1 83 said:

Probably a Nazi meeting or a bioweapons plant.
You forgot commercial drone conference.
Waffledynamics
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LMCane said:

Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

48 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian shelling at the cafe and grocery store in Groza village of Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-48-killed-6-wounded-as-result-of-russian-shelling
horrendous- that is in the far northeast of the country well behind the lines where there is even no combat going on..

on the same LiveMap look to the north- many strikes into Kursk Oblast- which is RUSSIA.

also the main offensive in the south in Zaporoziyhe Oblast - expand out the map and it seems the fighting has pushed even further south towards Tokmak and is now past the village of Novovpripovko

the front definitely seems to have moved south in the last two days!


I would recommend referencing maps from DeepState, Defmon3, and Andrew Perpetua if you want to get into the minutia of mapping. They're far more accurate than LiveUaMap, but LiveUaMap is good for putting events on a general area of the map. I've noticed they seem to have the most optimistic view of the Zaporizhzhia front.

DeepState seems to be the most conservative in their maps, too.
B-1 83
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I edited because it really didn't flow with this thread.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
74OA
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How Ukraine reclaimed the Black Sea from the Russian navy.

NEW WARFARE
PJYoung
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Waffledynamics said:

Quote:

48 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian shelling at the cafe and grocery store in Groza village of Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-october-48-killed-6-wounded-as-result-of-russian-shelling
I don't understand how people can read news like that and say we should cut off funding Ukraine.

I don't get it.


The tweet should read "Just look at the face of this rescuer"

PJYoung
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PJYoung
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ABATTBQ11
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Russia is a terrorist state and should be treated as such. They should get permanent Iran level sanctions.
PJYoung
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Russia is a terrorist state and should be treated as such. They should get permanent Iran level sanctions.
Waffledynamics
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11
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Rossticus said:




You know who really doesn't like Jews, Vlad?
Burrus86
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B-1 83 said:

That has to be targeting and not just bad artillery.

Donovan Wilson got called for targeting the whole he was here. I thought it was bad, too.
Waffledynamics
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74OA
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Rossticus said:


This is what Congress has accomplished: proving to Putin he just has to wait us out. Pathetic.
Rossticus
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What I'm afraid people fail to understand is that one of the primary benefits of supporting Ukraine militarily is in its serving as deterrence to China. Unless we plan on ceding Taiwan to China without acting, it's far less costly and infinitely less risky on numerous fronts to convince them that moving against Taiwan is a bad idea via a demonstration in Ukraine.

Everyone whining about WW3 starting from Ukraine, billions spent on war, etc. is missing the forest for the trees. Ensuring a Russian failure is more likely to avert WW3 than spark it, IMO. An Asian conflict, on the other hand…

That's close enough to a derail that I won't go any further but you get my train of thought.
ABATTBQ11
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Yes, but Biden bad so Zelensky grifter something something

But seriously, the opposition is entirely political because it's not Trump doing it. The positions would be completely reversed if Trump was pumping arms into Ukraine or sent troops. We'd be hearing all about how he was single handedly cleaning up the country.
FriscoKid
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100% true

I don't get the positions some people have taken because "politics".

Russia is a terrorist state. This is a just war.
txags92
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74OA said:

Rossticus said:


This is what this Congress has accomplished: Proving to Putin he just has to wait us out. Pathetic.


Not that different from the democrats ending vietnam.
ABATTBQ11
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It's really the same position the "pacifists" and Nazi sympathizers took in the late 30's, so nothing new. Just or not, it's not their problem and shouldn't be because we have problems of our own.

Those same people will talk about revolution and Texit, though, as if everyone should or would help them fight against oppression for the sake of freedom. If you're not willing to help someone else in their fight for freedom, why should anyone else help you?
Eliminatus
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74OA said:

Rossticus said:


This is what this Congress has accomplished: Proving to Putin he just has to wait us out. Pathetic.


To be brutally honest, this is no secret. You don't have the defeat the US military. You just have to outlast an administration or three. I will never forget the day that the actual date for a pullout of the ME was aired.

Cool. Hey Taliban. Just survive until this day coming up! That's the finish line! Make it to there and collect your prize! Super easy, barely an inconvenience.

Though to be fair, America loves to saddle itself with literally impossible tasks like "defeat terror" and "bring peace and prosperity" to third world nations and then hamstring itself even further with crazy restrictive ROEs.

The Russian populaces ability to support the "SMO" with their very bodies will probably be able to outlast the American resolve to send supplies to stop it. And it's not even close IMO. We already started cracking months ago. Which is an entirely different conversation not in scope of this thread but the implications of that can't be ignored either on the strategic side either. (Seriously don't want to derail thread so just talking about the possible outcome of that possibility).
There is no doubt in my mind Uke commanders have at least thought about that possibility of American aid stopping. And what to do if that happens. Shame on them if they haven't. I just wonder what actual realistic options they have at that point though.

To get back more on topic, the lessons from this war are still being learned and absorbed and America will be in a better position militarily for all of this. This is not even debatable. It is simple fact. Whew! Got all that out of the way! Back to the real stuff now.

Reports are that another batch of SU 35s and 57s are being delivered soon if not already. What batch means I don't know but do yall think there will be any point where Russia will consistently utilize the Felon in actual combat in Ukraine? Can it? Personally, I don't think it is ever going to happen. Even with this delivery they will probably still be under 20 airframes total and the PR nightmare of losing one is something Russia doesn't want IMO. And even if it did, what actual effective use would it provide? Just another bomb delivery plane? I don't think it is currently capable of any sort of deep strikes even as a 5th gen or 4.5 or slightly higher than 4th gen or whatever the hell it actually is.
AgLA06
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Pretty sure I read somewhere that so far batches have been 2.
ABATTBQ11
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They'll never use the Su-57 in Ukraine. It's not survivable. The Su-57 is basically a generation 4.5 aircraft. There's A LOT that goes into stealth (video below), and the Su-57 just take doesn't have it all.



Long story short, to really make a stealth aircraft is very expensive for a variety of reasons. Russia realized this and made a bunch of tradeoffs to make it stealthier without breaking the bank, but in the end Sukhoi is still only claiming an RCS of .1 to 1 m^2. Not huge, by any means, considering the size of the aircraft, but that's 1000 times bigger than the F-35 or F-22 and roughly the same as an unloaded F/A-18 on a good day. So it's really just a 4th gen fighter with internal weapons bays. Fly it over Ukraine and it is likely SAM fodder and a PR nightmare.

It's the same reason they won't deploy the T-14's they have to the frontline (also, the engines apparently suck). They're not as good as advertised to the Russian people (Gotta make them feel invincible and equal to the rest of the world!), and it would be hugely embarrassing if one was destroyed.
74OA
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Russia bombards Kharkiv, more on the mass murder of civilians in Hroza and other notes.

DEATHS
UPDATES

PJYoung
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Russia announces lowest natural gas output since 1978!

74OA
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These atrocities stiffen Ukraine's will to resist and should similarly reinforce our will to help them fight on.



LMCane
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the Uke leadership better be intelligent enough

to realize they need to be stockpiling ammo and main battle tanks and mobile artillery pieces behind the lines for when the US aid starts to slow down over the next year.

because they aren't getting to Mariupol in 2023.
Rossticus
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