***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,728,733 Views | 48142 Replies | Last: 16 hrs ago by 74OA
AgCMT
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AgLA06 said:

LMCane said:

Who had on their bingo card when this war began:

"Russia losing a nuclear submarine, it's largest Cruiser, most of it's attack helicopter fleet, dozens of fighter and bomber aircraft, 200,000 casualties and many of its advanced SAM units"
You forgot
  • Lost as much land as it took.
  • Is relying on convicts and murderers to slow the changing tide of war.
  • Can't defend Moscow or St. Petersburg from air threats.
  • Is begging other countries for weapons and assistance.

Lost it's Wagner Group
74OA
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Why the Ukrainian strike on the Sevastopol dry docks is a big deal.

LOGISTICS
txags92
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AgLA06 said:

LMCane said:

Who had on their bingo card when this war began:

"Russia losing a nuclear submarine, it's largest Cruiser, most of it's attack helicopter fleet, dozens of fighter and bomber aircraft, 200,000 casualties and many of its advanced SAM units"
You forgot
  • Lost as much land as it took.
  • Is relying on convicts and murderers to slow the changing tide of war.
  • Can't defend Moscow or St. Petersburg from air threats.
  • Is begging other countries for weapons and assistance.

Don't forget an abortive coup attempt from Wagner...
Touchless
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If you were referring to the video of the guys in the crater, in the linked video, you can hear it incoming and briefly see it right before impact as well.
benchmark
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74OA said:

Why the Ukrainian strike on the Sevastopol dry docks is a big deal.
Hopefully, the drydock doors were destroyed ... if not, a landing ship and sub isn't a bad day's work.

ETA. Regardless of any facility damage ... who in their right mind would park a valuable naval asset in these drydocks after today?

Rossticus
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Rossticus
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txags92
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Rossticus said:


Did the Chechens use up all the ammo firing into the sky for their tiktok videos?
ABATTBQ11
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benchmark said:

74OA said:

Why the Ukrainian strike on the Sevastopol dry docks is a big deal.
Hopefully, the drydock doors were destroyed ... if not, a landing ship and sub isn't a bad day's work.

ETA. Regardless of any facility damage ... who in their right mind would park a valuable naval asset in these drydocks after today?




Some things can only be done in dry dock, and anything that leaves the black sea can't come back.

ETA Also, based on some of the pics, it doesn't look like the doors were destroyed. Maybe damaged? In either case, the cranes and facilities around the docks are ****ed, and there's thousands of tons of dead weight stuck in them. They'll have to cut the ships up in place and repair ot replace enough equipment to pull them out in chunks or they'll need to patch up the carcasses enough to float them out somewhere and sink them. Whichever option they choose, those drydocks are out of commission for a long time.
ABATTBQ11
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LMCane said:

Who had on their bingo card when this war began:

"Russia losing a nuclear submarine, it's largest Cruiser, most of it's attack helicopter fleet, dozens of fighter and bomber aircraft, 200,000 casualties and many of its advanced SAM units"


Kilo is diesel electric
74OA
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The biggest US worry about the Putin-Kim meeting is not that Russia gets munitions from North Korea, but that North Korea may successfully demand advanced Russian ICBM technology in return so it can further threaten the interior United States with nukes.

Today's SITREP.
cbr
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Rossticus said:


Thats a pretty ****ing badass river boat.
USAFAg
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cbr said:

Rossticus said:


Thats a pretty ****ing badass river boat.
Smarden-class river monitor

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Rossticus
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Crimea is lit tonight. Again…. Ukrainian apartments and shopping centers are going to catch hell in the near future, methinks.



Waffledynamics
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Quite an informative video. Matt's the host this time. He's good for information.

RogerEnright
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I guess keep sending storm shadows until Russia does something about it?
aezmvp
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100%.

Hit communications hubs, electrical infrastructure, ammo depos, train y's and especially anything related to fuel. The attack on the dry docks is amazing and crazy effective to the Russian Navy, but to support the land side hitting their fuel infrastructure (storage tanks, pipelines, pumps and so forth) is the key to really weakening the resupply side further north.

I'm sure there is an extensive list.
shiftyandquick
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Rossticus
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More booms in Russia.

pagerman @ work
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74OA said:

Why the Ukrainian strike on the Sevastopol dry docks is a big deal.

LOGISTICS

From that article:
Quote:

In World War II, Allied forces put enormous resources into disabling key pieces of naval infrastructure. To neutralize the threat from the newly-constructed Tirpitz, a formidable German battleship, England put an enormous amount of resources into knocking out a large dry dock in the French port of St. Nazairethe only dry dock outside of Germany able to repair the big German warship.

To destroy the facility, England fought their way to the dry dock, rammed it with an explosives-filled destroyer, and blew it up. It was a costly venture. Of the 612 men who participated in the raid, only 228 returned. 169 men were killed and 215 were taken prisoner.

But the dry dock was destroyed. It didn't go back into service until 1950five years after the war ended.

While the 990 lb warhead on a Storm Shadow cruise missile cannot match the explosive power of the 4 tons of explosives used to blow up the St. Nazaire docks, reports suggest Ukraine dedicated up to ten of these precision-strike missiles to the attack.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but ten 990 lb. warheads which would total 9,990 lbs. would compare quite nicely to 4 tons (8,000 lbs.) of explosives. Even if the St. Nazaire raid is calculated using metric tons, 4 tonnes is 8,800 lbs.

I know it's kind of picking gnat sh/t out of pepper, but am I missing something?
Gilligan
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pagerman @ work said:

74OA said:

Why the Ukrainian strike on the Sevastopol dry docks is a big deal.

LOGISTICS

From that article:
Quote:

In World War II, Allied forces put enormous resources into disabling key pieces of naval infrastructure. To neutralize the threat from the newly-constructed Tirpitz, a formidable German battleship, England put an enormous amount of resources into knocking out a large dry dock in the French port of St. Nazairethe only dry dock outside of Germany able to repair the big German warship.

To destroy the facility, England fought their way to the dry dock, rammed it with an explosives-filled destroyer, and blew it up. It was a costly venture. Of the 612 men who participated in the raid, only 228 returned. 169 men were killed and 215 were taken prisoner.

But the dry dock was destroyed. It didn't go back into service until 1950five years after the war ended.

While the 990 lb warhead on a Storm Shadow cruise missile cannot match the explosive power of the 4 tons of explosives used to blow up the St. Nazaire docks, reports suggest Ukraine dedicated up to ten of these precision-strike missiles to the attack.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but ten 990 lb. warheads which would total 9,990 lbs. would compare quite nicely to 4 tons (8,000 lbs.) of explosives. Even if the St. Nazaire raid is calculated using metric tons, 4 tonnes is 8,800 lbs.

I know it's kind of picking gnat sh/t out of pepper, but am I missing something?


Not all of the Storm Shadows made it through the air defenses. So not a apples to apples comparison.
Gilligan
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Rossticus said:

More booms in Russia.




Jagga Jagga big badaboom!

A thing of beauty!
AgLA06
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And 10 individual explosion don't have the same concentrated force of one large charge in one specific place.
JFABNRGR
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aezmvp said:

100%.

Hit communications hubs, electrical infrastructure, ammo depos, train y's and especially anything related to fuel. The attack on the dry docks is amazing and crazy effective to the Russian Navy, but to support the land side hitting their fuel infrastructure (storage tanks, pipelines, pumps and so forth) is the key to really weakening the resupply side further north.

I'm sure there is an extensive list.


Reddit says last hit was on S400 ADA system. The one partially shown by tourist social media post a few weeks back.
SamHou
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Russian pilot intended to shoot down a British plane. That would've dramatically impacted the current state of the war.

Rogue Russian pilot tried to shoot down RAF aircraft in 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508
JJxvi
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But I heard Ukraine was out of Storm Shadows?
docb
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JJxvi said:

But I heard Ukraine was out of Storm Shadows?
Hm? I wonder who said that. Always need to take your sources with a grain of salt. There is a lot of misinformation put out about this war. My guess is that the Ukranians will continue to be supplied with these or similar weapon as long as they are showing they can be used effectively. Taurus and ATACMS will likely follow once the SCALP and Storm Shadow are harder to get plus it's not like they can't manufacture them.
chickencoupe16
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docb said:

JJxvi said:

But I heard Ukraine was out of Storm Shadows?
Hm? I wonder who said that. Always need to take your sources with a grain of salt. There is a lot of misinformation put out about this war. My guess is that the Ukranians will continue to be supplied with these or similar weapon as long as they are showing they can be used effectively. Taurus and ATACMS will likely follow once the SCALP and Storm Shadow are harder to get plus it's not like they can't manufacture them.


Some around these threads claimed that Russia had hit and destroyed Ukraine's stash of Storm Shadows which is what prompted Germany to go ahead with the Taurus.
LMCane
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74OA said:

The biggest US worry about the Putin-Kim meeting is not that Russia gets munitions from North Korea, but that North Korea may successfully demand advanced Russian ICBM technology in return so it can threaten the interior United States with nukes.

Today's SITREP.
same exact issue with the Russkies probably buying Iranian Shahed drones

in exchange for advanced ICBM technologies
P.U.T.U
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Or help with other weapon systems like nuclear subs. North Korea announced the deployment of one a few days ago. Pretty easy to sneak in some Russian scientist in exchange for weapons.

One would have to think being deployed on a North Korean nuclear anything is a suicide mission.

North Korean nuclear sub
ABATTBQ11
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This would be a pretty big loss if they were able to hit the radars and/or networking gear.
ABATTBQ11
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P.U.T.U said:

Or help with other weapon systems like nuclear subs. North Korea announced the deployment of one a few days ago. Pretty easy to sneak in some Russian scientist in exchange for weapons.

One would have to think being deployed on a North Korean nuclear anything is a suicide mission.

North Korean nuclear sub


I don't think that's a nuclear submarine. It's supposedly capable of firing nuclear cruise missiles or short range ballistic missiles, but I'm pretty sure it's a diesel electric sub.
JFABNRGR
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ABATTBQ11 said:

This would be a pretty big loss if they were able to hit the radars and/or networking gear.
This overhead image confirms estimated distance between explosions on the actual strike videos.

Crimea and all of russia is getting softened up making any strikes by drone, storm shadow, GLSDB, ATACAM, Neptune, etc more efficient by the day. If this keeps up the F16s won't have to play an operational role just help with negotiations to a means to an end.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/16iim5i/satellite_images_with_the_consequences_of_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
74OA
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Apparently, the scope of Ukraine's naval operation on the day Sevastopol was attacked was wider than previously understood.

OTHER SHIPS
jbeaman88
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74OA said:

Apparently, the scope of Ukraine's naval operation on the day Sevastopol was attacked was wider than previously understood.

OTHER SHIPS
TIL that Turkey prohibits the passage of Russian warships through the Bosporus Strait. So Russia's Black Sea fleet is really just that and hasn't been able to transit to deep water since March, 2022. Reading more about this, that was when Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention which allows them to restrict passages during times of war. One exception is they can't restrict passage of naval ships returning to Black Sea ports where they are registered. Apparently, however, Moscow is now circumventing this by using civilian merchant vessels to supply logistics to its military operations in Syria and Ukraine.
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