I was thinking from the perspective of an American election. Russian pols arent worried about votes like ours would be, but rather avoiding getting lynched. Makes sense when you put it that way.

Yup totally different system, values, history and experiences. The Russians tend to have a long memory of history and really understanding the Napoleonic invasion, the Red Revolution and the early Soviet consolidation, WWII and the lessons from the various Eastern European revolts (the Czechs, the Hungarians, the Poles) are really key to laying the foundation for how modern Russian leadership views the world. Obviously that's a very 10,000 foot view like saying you have to understand the Revolution, Civil War, WWII, Watergate and 9/11 for the US. Of course you're missing key things like the Gilded Age, the Depression, etc that radically have changed how the US operates but it will give you a good foundation on things that are a big influence on current events.

In the forest west of Kreminna, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions with 9M22S 122mm incendiary Grad rockets.

Footage shows the burning magnesium/thermite elements floating down through the trees. pic.twitter.com/DNIwqmG0Sg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 12, 2023

I guess the Russians felt they needed to get rid of the canopy in that area to allow drones to target the area.

Denys Davidov reporting that the Ukes made progress on four vectors yesterday

Donetsk Airport
Novo Propovisk south of Robotyne
Andiivka
north of Bakhmut

Russian infantry sucks compared to the Ukes so they try to destroy any and all cover. Easier to hit with artillery and drones. Been their MO for years, even in Syria

Uncrewed vessels coming soon to an ocean, sea or littoral near you.

USVs

Something is on fire in central #Moscow following reports of a large explosion. The tall structure in the distance appears to be Ostakino Tower.pic.twitter.com/rHJnkswO6j

— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) September 12, 2023

💥 Explosions in Moscow pic.twitter.com/PHGLz6ftZA

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) September 12, 2023

Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km… pic.twitter.com/xQnTWGspbM

— 🇺🇦Ukraine Resists Russian Genocide... Yeah Again (@ArmedMaidan) September 12, 2023

Quote:

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Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km north of Donetsk Airport, apparently last week

When enemy troops started retreating through a field, Russian drone pilots mistook them for Ukrainians and directed artillery to let loose, Euromaidan Press says in its front line report today

Over 60 Russian troops were reportedly killed or wounded in the little accident

"Ukrainians obviously exploited this opportunity to the fullest, and after Russians killed their own troops that defended Opytne, Ukrainians managed to defeat the remnants of the Russian forces," Euromaidan Press's report says.

Ukrainian units were able to advance about 2 km here and to make inroads at two other nearby sites west of Donetsk City

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https://reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/DVPkMGuQWP
Kremlin will say all drones repelled

Sweden considering donating Gripen fighters to Ukraine.

JAS-39

Fire still burning in Sevastopol pic.twitter.com/FCcK7dfcqK

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) September 13, 2023

PJYoung said:

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Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km… pic.twitter.com/xQnTWGspbM

— 🇺🇦Ukraine Resists Russian Genocide... Yeah Again (@ArmedMaidan) September 12, 2023

Quote:

---

Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km north of Donetsk Airport, apparently last week

When enemy troops started retreating through a field, Russian drone pilots mistook them for Ukrainians and directed artillery to let loose, Euromaidan Press says in its front line report today

Over 60 Russian troops were reportedly killed or wounded in the little accident

"Ukrainians obviously exploited this opportunity to the fullest, and after Russians killed their own troops that defended Opytne, Ukrainians managed to defeat the remnants of the Russian forces," Euromaidan Press's report says.

Ukrainian units were able to advance about 2 km here and to make inroads at two other nearby sites west of Donetsk City

---

---

I genuinely appreciate the post. However, until we see advances of 8+ km per day, then this is still a meat grinder advance the Ukrainians are making. I'm hoping for a dry winter for Ukraine, and I'm hoping for an Uke advance to the Kerch bridge. Unlike the "other perspective" thread, I really want to see Ukraine emerge victorious in this war.

Burrus86 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km… pic.twitter.com/xQnTWGspbM

— 🇺🇦Ukraine Resists Russian Genocide... Yeah Again (@ArmedMaidan) September 12, 2023

Quote:

---

Ukraine is starting to push its way into thinly defended areas of the eastern front after Russia scraped together all available troops to buck up its retreating forces in the south

Case in point: #Opytne

Ukrainian forces launched an operation to liberate this village just 2 km north of Donetsk Airport, apparently last week

When enemy troops started retreating through a field, Russian drone pilots mistook them for Ukrainians and directed artillery to let loose, Euromaidan Press says in its front line report today

Over 60 Russian troops were reportedly killed or wounded in the little accident

"Ukrainians obviously exploited this opportunity to the fullest, and after Russians killed their own troops that defended Opytne, Ukrainians managed to defeat the remnants of the Russian forces," Euromaidan Press's report says.

Ukrainian units were able to advance about 2 km here and to make inroads at two other nearby sites west of Donetsk City

---

---

I genuinely appreciate the post. However, until we see advances of 8+ km per day, then this is still a meat grinder advance the Ukrainians are making. I'm hoping for a dry winter for Ukraine, and I'm hoping for an Uke advance to the Kerch bridge. Unlike the "other perspective" thread, I really want to see Ukraine emerge victorious in this war.

---

Expect the Kerch Bridge to be destroyed long before any advance to it.

Advances like in Kharkiv are extremely unlikely for a while, if ever, due to the different situation. Expect this to be more grueling than Kherson.

NEW: Russian insider sources claimed that the #Kremlin’s inner circle is again actively disagreeing about the necessity of and preparations for a second wave of reserve mobilization ahead of the semi-annual fall conscription cycle, which starts on Oct. 1.🧵https://t.co/Tf8OHZNZnW pic.twitter.com/s5LS6RogCZ

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) September 13, 2023

Interesting thread. I wonder how much deeper they can get without hitting St Petersburg and Moscow with drafts.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Yep66 said:

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Appears that Ukrainian forces have successfully hit the Sevastopol Shipyard drydocks this morning, likely occupied by a Russian Kilo-class sub and Ropucha landing ship. pic.twitter.com/wNJHaVfF3t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 13, 2023

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A kilo class sub would be a huge loss

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Is that one of the subs they have been using to launch the cruise missiles from the Black Sea?

Yes

Vids

A # of Russian Telegram channels posted videos of explosions and a fire reportedly at the 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol, possibly from a missile strike. https://t.co/Pr645WM7Kthttps://t.co/6vKPel4yhthttps://t.co/jXTfViRBy9https://t.co/6AQB0skAdKhttps://t.co/p13j5iL0gt pic.twitter.com/Fgg1FTPKkn

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 13, 2023

txags92 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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Yep66 said:

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Appears that Ukrainian forces have successfully hit the Sevastopol Shipyard drydocks this morning, likely occupied by a Russian Kilo-class sub and Ropucha landing ship. pic.twitter.com/wNJHaVfF3t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 13, 2023

---

A kilo class sub would be a huge loss

---

Is that one of the subs they have been using to launch the cruise missiles from the Black Sea?

---

Yeah, but beyond that it would be a huge symbolic loss. An LST or patrol boat is one thing, but a submarine is a combat vessel. It's like losing the Moskva, though not quite the same strategic loss. On top of that, there's the economics of the loss. Submarines are expensive.

Moscow was also hit. Ya have to wonder WTF putin is gonna do, they are going backwards, which really isn't that big of deal but they are losing billions and billions worth of military hardware and russian troops which are finite. That is a big deal.

Ooh then theres the disbarment from the olympics. **** putin.

https://reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/aFCxw4obxX

NVM

Looks like they really may have managed to tag them both.

#Breaking Russian media outlet says the two ships damaged in the #Ukrainian attack against the Sevastopol shipyard are the Rostov on-Don Kilo-class submarine, and the Ropucha-class Minsk landing Ship pic.twitter.com/A5UA2wWMtY

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) September 13, 2023

russian ministry of Defense confirms damage to two russian ships undergoing repairs.

They also stated that Ukraine performed an attack using 10 cruise missiles and 3 unmanned watercraft. pic.twitter.com/Al7umkHBbe

— ✙🍒 Constantine 🍒✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) September 13, 2023

I am not sure of the percentage now but in 2020ish I believe 70% of Russia's deep sea fleet was based out of Sevastopol. It was one of the main reasons they took Crimea.

Russia went from doing what they wanted in Sevastopol, to installing countermeasures, and once they get in range of ground based artillery they will have to add more defenses to the area. Russia's missile defense systems are not living up to their hype which is a huge issue for them

P.U.T.U said:

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I am not sure of the percentage now but in 2020ish I believe 70% of Russia's deep sea fleet was based out of Sevastopol. It was one of the main reasons they took Crimea.

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Flashback to 2010 when Yanukovych extended the Sevastopol lease through 2042.

Ukraine extends lease for Russia's Black Sea Fleet

Quote:

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The deal is the most concrete sign yet that Ukraine is now back under Russia's influence following Yanukovych's victory in February's presidential elections. It appears to mark the final nail in the coffin of the Orange Revolution of 2004.

Yanukovych's predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, had vowed to eject Russia's Black Sea fleet from the port of Sevastopol, arguing that its presence was an affront to Ukraine's sovereignty and a destabilising factor in Crimea, a majority ethnic Russian region with a strong pro-Soviet mood.

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Sq 17 said:

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Thanks
somebody made this point several hundred pages ago when there was discussion about mobilization earlier in the war
His point was draft notices could not go out in places like Moscow or St. Petersburg because those young men probably had the ability to leave the country and
As soldiers get killed which happens in war Putin and Co. need it to be dead soldiers from the backwaters of Russia

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This is 100 percent false, and has been throughout the war, fyi.

P.U.T.U said:

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I am not sure of the percentage now but in 2020ish I believe 70% of Russia's deep sea fleet was based out of Sevastopol. It was one of the main reasons they took Crimea.

Russia went from doing what they wanted in Sevastopol, to installing countermeasures, and once they get in range of ground based artillery they will have to add more defenses to the area. Russia's missile defense systems are not living up to their hype which is a huge issue for them

---

can anyone explain why the Russians have left Kilo class subs in Sevastopol

AFTER they know that the Ukes have been receiving advanced NATO cruise missiles?

LMCane said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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I am not sure of the percentage now but in 2020ish I believe 70% of Russia's deep sea fleet was based out of Sevastopol. It was one of the main reasons they took Crimea.

Russia went from doing what they wanted in Sevastopol, to installing countermeasures, and once they get in range of ground based artillery they will have to add more defenses to the area. Russia's missile defense systems are not living up to their hype which is a huge issue for them

---

can anyone explain why the Russians have left Kilo class subs in Sevastopol

AFTER they know that the Ukes have been receiving advanced NATO cruise missiles?

---

More than likely just sheer incompetence. Look back over the last 18 months of Russia's actions in this war and it's the most obvious answer.