We don't know the future but zero percent chance Russia is able to Replace all the equipment that got destroyed over the last 18 months

This isn't the Napoleonic era where military strength is correlated to troop numbers.

A modern military requires massive investments in complex platforms and hardware. This equipment isn't just prohibitively expensive for most nations, it also takes years in some cases a decade, to manufacture and procure from 0.

On top of that the troops that utilize these devices need years of technical training and field exercises to become capable and skilled users of these platforms and devices.

The Russian military will take at least a decade to recover to their pre invasion capabilities.

Rongagin71 said:

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Its been said before, but the "Russia cannot effectively replace losses" line is yet to be proven correct.
Russia is very huge, and even if Putin drops dead and his replacement settles the war, it may only be a few years until the Russian military is rebuilt, possibly stronger than before - we just don't know the future.

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We don't know the future but we know a lot about the current situation and the constraints.

Huge country? Land mass isn't the same as population. They have a population of ~145 million which is not a large country and that's true even if you include the Stans. Their population of Russia is smaller (and probably less healthy) than the India, China, United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, and Bangladesh. Uzbekistan is the only other RF county in the top 50 most populous countries and they have 35 million (and aren't thrilled about sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine).

In the early months of the war Russia was already crewing fighting vehicles and tanks with officers from the supply corps and weather service. They were running tanks with a crew of two (tubes forward so the commander had to switch to the gunner station to fight). Shoigu and Gerasimov were using reserve units from day one and lying about it to Putin because their regular army unit rosters were riddled with ghost soldiers as the commanders cashed those paychecks. They have extended the age of compulsory service to 65. They have used up the entire male population between the age of 18-50 in the Stans and have had rebellion in these eastern and Caucuses republics when going for more conscripts. They have had conscripts shoot officers when they are given weapons. Russian police are now going door to door hunting for draft dodging conscripts in Moscow and St Petersburg. Men (and women) with a STEM education had been fleeing Russia for the west for job opportunities and now they are as desperate to leave as the East Germans were to get over the wall. PhD scientists that were at the pinnacle of prestige during the Cold War arms race have been relegated to barely middle class under Putin as state funded R&D flatlined and new hypersonic weapons are nothing more than a glide vehicle mounted on 1980s vintage liquid fueled booster rockets.

Russia has eaten its seed corn. The training cadre at military schools have been sent to the front as replacements because the Russian armed forces never rotated experienced combat veterans back to teach at the schools (because Georgi Zhukov would not have done it in the Great Patriotic War). Russia has emptied the prisons and now they are sending the jailers at gunpoint to Ukraine. Putin has fired and dozens of Generals and then reappointed some and fired them again.

Russia began the war after 20 years of a birthrate that is below replacement rate and an average male life expectancy of 59. Russia is not a knowledge and services based economy and they have sent two generations of factory workers to a meatgrinder. Alcoholism was already the leading cause of death below the age of 50 before the war began and the extended Frontline combat without rotation to the rear is sending drug and vodka abuse spiraling upward among those who were wounded badly enough to be discharged.

If you define the parameters of what a "Russian military rebuilt" looks like in terms of equipment and troops, I would probably bet against that. Russia is not going to regain anywhere near the military capability that it had two years ago during my lifetime.

You can add to that Russia has one the most rapidly increasing rates of HIV and they lack to medical support to keep things in check. They are truly a people and society on the decline. I don't really worry about their ability rebuild as much as I worry about all those nukes when the whole house of cards collapses.

China is only waiting to take Russia's resources after Russia goes toes up.

Donetsk airport is an icon of the 2014 invasion. Retaking it would be very symbolic.

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Ukrainian Military intelligence claims returning control over 2 drilling platform in the Black Sea, occupied by Russia since 2015: Petro Hodovalets and Tavrida. Also claimed seizing ammunition and Neva radar, damaging Su-30 jet during battle for platforms

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-september-ukrainian-military-intelligence-claims-returning

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Ukrainian defense forces have destroyed 6 Russian boats in Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-september-ukrainian-defense-forces-have-destroyed-6-russian

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Detonation of ammunition lasted over 2 hours after counter-battery work near Oleshky of Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-september-detonation-of-ammunition-laster-over-2-hours

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Ukrainian air defense shot down Russian Forpost UAV near Zmiiny island

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-september-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-russian-forpost

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Fuel crisis in Krasnodar Krai of Russia - diesel is almost not available at fuel stations

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/11-september-fuel-crisis-in-krasnodar-krai-of-russia--diesel

Riots in urban areas are hard to manage
If they lose public opinion and riots get rolling in Moscow it's game over