***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,558,791 Views | 47740 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Waffledynamics
MJ20/20
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Ask and you shall receive

nortex97
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Gilligan
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Rossticus said:

This is downright disturbing… Completely in line with what some Russian forces have demonstrated since the beginning of the war but disturbing nonetheless. Add in the participation of Phillips and… well…



Wow! Tough read! This Graham Phillips should never leave the RuZZia he seems to love so much. A Uke version of the Mossad should find him.
lb sand
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Interesting report on the breach and the attack towards Verbove. Breaking through to second line, etc

Good maps,

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/01/frontline-report-ukrainians-launch-offensive-on-verbove-breaching-russian-second-line-of-defense-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/?swcfpc=1
74OA
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MODS: Am I missing something inappropriate about the twitter post that has apparently been removed twice?

[Yes. That's not a tactical or strategic update. We might not remove everything that could be argued to fall outside the scope, as there is a lot of gray area, but when we do, it's not a good idea to repost the same thing and ask questions about it. Take the hint the first time -- Staff]
LMCane
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jbeaman88 said:

LMCane said:

cbr said:

2wealfth Man said:

cbr said:

PJYoung said:

Oh man this video just popped up on my feed. This is the first I've seen of drones hitting infantry in trenches. Timely. What a nightmare for infantry.


yeah, for crying out loud, you are just a sitting duck at that point. that is unreal. and it is the future for sure.
need some kind of mass drone "launcher" to just absolutely rake a whole section of trench and /or other positions of interest. Absolutely maddening to defend against.
i honestly dont know how you'd defend against drone swarms other than EW, if they are susceptible, or smaller more advanced drone swarms of your own.

this is an ugly, ugly future for warfare and humanity... and scary as **** for the '2nd amendment is our last line of defense against tyranny' concept.
THIS is exactly how you defend against Russian drone swarms in the future


Not just in the future, it seems, according to the wording used near the end. What are the chances some of these are already in use in Ukraine?

well the actual Iron Beam from Rafael will not be in Ukraine for political/strategic reasons.

but the underlying technology to protect against Russian / Iranian supplied UAV attacks is being shared with DOD and will be equipping US Army and Marine units in the future.
74OA
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74OA said:

MODS: Am I missing something inappropriate about the twitter post that has apparently been removed twice?

[Yes. That's not a tactical or strategic update. We might not remove everything that could be argued to fall outside the scope, as there is a lot of gray area, but when we do, it's not a good idea to repost the same thing and ask questions about it. Take the hint the first time -- Staff]
Ok. I wasn't sure what the "hint" was when it just disappeared without any accompanying mod note. <shrug>

[It says right there on the deleted post: "Thread Derailing" We can't write a dissertation on ever deleted post -- Staff]
LMCane
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lb sand said:

Interesting report on the breach and the attack towards Verbove. Breaking through to second line, etc

Good maps,

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/09/01/frontline-report-ukrainians-launch-offensive-on-verbove-breaching-russian-second-line-of-defense-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/?swcfpc=1
when you look at the heat maps and the ISW maps that Denys Davidov and Speak the Truth use-

it's apparent that if the Ukes can get southwest along the Verbove - Berdiansk roadway they can get behind all three entrenched positions of the Surovikin Defense Line.

the only questions are:

is this a clever trap by the Russkies who are on the high ground around Verbove?

Can Ukraine push through armor and fuel in one congested road network running through a town under fire?
P.U.T.U
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From a few shots I have seen the most robust defensive positions are coming up, whether these are accurate or not is the question. If they are indeed more robust than the first and Ukraine gets stalled they can get trapped by the Russians. Russia brought in their best basic troops to the area and I could see it happening. But the Russians have proven over and over they don't always use commons sense so who knows.

I do wonder why Ukraine is still putting so many more troops on the east when their goals should be to cut off the south before winter starts.
The Fife
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I think that may be so that they themselves don't get overrun by Russian offensives.
nortex97
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LMCane
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P.U.T.U said:

From a few shots I have seen the most robust defensive positions are coming up, whether these are accurate or not is the question. If they are indeed more robust than the first and Ukraine gets stalled they can get trapped by the Russians. Russia brought in their best basic troops to the area and I could see it happening. But the Russians have proven over and over they don't always use commons sense so who knows.

I do wonder why Ukraine is still putting so many more troops on the east when their goals should be to cut off the south before winter starts.
When you state "more troops on the east" are you referring to the Bakhmut area (Andriivka) or the Kupiansk sector?

the latest I have seen is that the Ukes are holding fast in the north east around Kupiansk and blunting the one Russian offensive that weeks ago was supposed to have '100,000 men"
Sims
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74OA said:

74OA said:

MODS: Am I missing something inappropriate about the twitter post that has apparently been removed twice?

[Yes. That's not a tactical or strategic update. We might not remove everything that could be argued to fall outside the scope, as there is a lot of gray area, but when we do, it's not a good idea to repost the same thing and ask questions about it. Take the hint the first time -- Staff]
Ok. I wasn't sure what the "hint" was when it just disappeared without any accompanying mod note. <shrug>
Had a post deleted recently and the reasoning began, "They were auto-deleted..." I'm with you, hints are sometimes hard to discern.
74OA
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"The first of Ukraine's U.S.-supplied M1 Abrams main battle tanks appear to be on track to go into combat starting from mid-September, with the news that a cadre of Ukrainian crews have finished their training on them."

"There has also been more positive news of late from the southeast of the country, where U.S. and Ukrainian officials say that Ukrainian forces have, for the first time, penetrated Russia's main defensive line."

TANKS
ABATTBQ11
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nortex97 said:





That first plane may be repairable because it looks like the bomblet only hit the #3 engine and potentially the leading edge of the wing, but it could have caused enough structural damage to make it a lost cause. The second is ****ed because the wing spar box is definitely damaged. Essentially its back is broken, and there's really no economical fixing that. Obviously the third one is ****ed too.
PJYoung
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74OA
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"The dragon's teeth of the Surovikin line can be very well seen....."

Clear progress.
Waffledynamics
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Reported a couple of hours ago:

Quote:

Explosions were reported at Kerch bridge, occupational authorities report drone attack
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/1-september-explosions-were-reported-at-kerch-bridge-occupational

Per Russian source Rybar:

https://t.me/rybar/51428

Quote:

At around 23.40, Ukrainian formations tried to hit the Crimean bridge with two unmanned boats (BEK). One of them was destroyed by small arms border guards on the south side of the Kerch Strait .

The second BEC immediately turned around and moved out of sight. It is not yet clear where the drone went attacks at night are quite likely. Because of this, traffic on the Crimean bridge was blocked.
USAFAg
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Waffledynamics said:

Reported a couple of hours ago:

Quote:

Explosions were reported at Kerch bridge, occupational authorities report drone attack
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/1-september-explosions-were-reported-at-kerch-bridge-occupational

Per Russian source Rybar:

https://t.me/rybar/51428

Quote:

At around 23.40, Ukrainian formations tried to hit the Crimean bridge with two unmanned boats (BEK). One of them was destroyed by small arms border guards on the south side of the Kerch Strait .

The second BEC immediately turned around and moved out of sight. It is not yet clear where the drone went attacks at night are quite likely. Because of this, traffic on the Crimean bridge was blocked.



Recce, most likely

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
PJYoung
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PJYoung
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PJYoung
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[This Twitter post has been posted previously and has nothing to do with tactics and strategy. If you want to laugh at those predictions, start a new thread on that subject. That's off topic here -- Staff]
74OA
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Inadvertent blue-on-blue Bradley engagement and other updates from the battlefield.

Today's SITREP.
74OA
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China taking stock of Russia's logistical failures during its invasion of Ukraine.

LESSONS LEARNED
B-1 83
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PJYoung said:


I thought that was fairly standard in anti-tank munitions. I guess not.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
lb3
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There really isn't much need for DU rounds. It's not like we're seeing tank rounds bounce off Russian armor.

My guess is we just have a lot of it to spare.
bonfarr
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lb3 said:

There really isn't much need for DU rounds. It's not like we're seeing tank rounds bounce off Russian armor.

My guess is we just have a lot of it to spare.


We could have given them a bunch of Warthogs to shoot that DU too but they didn't want them.
74OA
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UK MOD intel says Russia at risk of dangerously dividing its forces by reinforcing the east while defending in the south and other notes from Ukraine.

UPDATES
aezmvp
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They couldn't stop China without using nuclear weapons and the risk of Chinese invasion is low anyway. Japan may claim those islands but you really think the JDF is going to launch an amphibious campaign to go get them? Silly update and completely transparent propoganda.
74OA
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The Brits provided Ukraine with DU rounds for its donated Challenger tanks months ago.

URANIUM
74OA
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aezmvp said:

They couldn't stop China without using nuclear weapons and the risk of Chinese invasion is low anyway. Japan may claim those islands but you really think the JDF is going to launch an amphibious campaign to go get them? Silly update and completely transparent propoganda.

The CCP is making plain its intentions in the region and, surprisingly, they include claiming territory from its close ally Russia.

The relevant point for this discussion is that Moscow is usually hyper-sensitive about territorial issues, so its muted reaction is an indicator of the extent to which Russia has become strategically dependent on Chinese support to sustain Putin's war.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian attack with drones at Reni and Izmail, Odesa region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/3-september-russian-attack-with-drones-at-reni-and-izmail

About 4 hours ago. These are pretty close to the Romanian border.
Rossticus
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Gordo14
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74OA
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From Andriy Pilshchykov's (aka "Juice") obituary published in The Economist. The words are attributed to him from the many interviews he gave and addresses the inadequacies of the MIG-29.

"Its (i.e. the F-16's) combat range, with four 454kg bombs on board, was 546km before refueling. If he was spotted, the F-16's electronics could jam the enemy's radar. And if their pilots dithered he could release, one by one, a deadly stream of Sidewinder or Python missiles to blast that Russian **** out of the sky.

In reality, however, Andriy Pilshchykov flew a MIG-29. That was a different world. His plane was a Soviet-era model, upgraded since, but just not in the same class. It was much less adaptable and needed frequent refueling. The radar was so poor that he could not detect enemy missiles on his own but had to take orders from the ground. Worse, the MIG's own R-27 missiles were heat-seeking, so firing them over cities was perilous; if he did not keep them in a lock, hard on target, they would make for buildings, campfires, or anything else. Meanwhile his plane struggled to prevail against Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, slower than he was but too small to spot; let alone against nimbler Russian SU-35s, the biggest enemy, firing missiles with a range three times as far as his. It was not a real fight; it was stupid. Ukraine could not win the war against those sorts of odds."
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