PJYoung said:

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Aug 27, 2023: Update 2 on the Robotyne AO, Tokmak Axis, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine

No confirmation from the AFU General Staff

Russian mil-bloggers are reporting that the AFU has broken through to Verbove. If true, this is the 46th Airmobile Brigade and it is huge in many ways… pic.twitter.com/9kfMzR2W1j

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) August 27, 2023

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move southEAST through Verbove

and bypass two more Russian trench lines then head due west and cut them off from Tokmak

LMCane said:

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PJYoung said:

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Aug 27, 2023: Update 2 on the Robotyne AO, Tokmak Axis, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine

No confirmation from the AFU General Staff

Russian mil-bloggers are reporting that the AFU has broken through to Verbove. If true, this is the 46th Airmobile Brigade and it is huge in many ways… pic.twitter.com/9kfMzR2W1j

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) August 27, 2023

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move southEAST through Verbove

and bypass two more Russian trench lines then head due west and cut them off from Tokmak

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Stop. They can't hear you. If they could they'd want to hear from someone that knows what they're doing.

The equivalent of a fan that's never played yelling play calls from the third deck.

GAC06 said:

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nortex97 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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nortex97 said:

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They are facing a larger enemy/Russian force they claim to be advancing on.

RU telegram sums up the current state of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine:

"So far our defenses are holding" pic.twitter.com/lbXERX0IF3

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 28, 2023

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Except the Ukrainians have taken Robotyne and are, by many accounts, in Verbove. By some accounts they've reached the southern outskirts. If that's true, then no, their defenses are not holding.

Russia is also redeploying 76th Guards Air Assault Division here from the East in an attempt to stop further advances. Again, this would not happen if their defenses were holding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/27/as-ukraines-counteroffensive-gains-momentum-russia-is-deploying-some-of-its-last-good-reserves/?sh=6ef22e3772bf

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The UFA threw the 82nd brigade, their lightest and most mobile, at the hamlet/area around Robotyne which the Russians maintain overwatch of with significant field artillery capabilities (again betraying the flawed analyses I think that there are no more 'good targets' for himars etc). I linked above to indicia as to why this land is strategically worthless, such as it is today. Russia redeploying forces in response though is only logical to the push there.

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One thing to note is that, the 82nd is structured in a peculiar way compared to the other brigades. They appear to be the lightest and most mobile. This is due to every other brigade of the 9th Corps being distributed with the equivalent of two tank companies or perhaps a light tank battalion of about 30 tanks with 90 armored vehicles (AFV, IFV, ICV, AMV, APC, etc.). But the 82nd has a measly 14 x Challenger 2s but 90 Strykers + 40 Marders for a total of 130 capable lightly armored combat vehicles. Even their M119 light howitzers specialize in fast setup and mobility.

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The operative question remains what happens next:

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On June 22, Forbes assessed that the 82nd, and the 117th Mechanized Brigade where being held in reserve waiting for a significant breach in Russian lines to allow them to storm Melitopol.

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The Forbes article says the deployment of the brigade is both "good and bad" news. Good because it's a fresh brigade, bad because they have nothing left after it:

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The deployment is good and bad news for Kyiv's long-anticipated counteroffensive, which kicked off with a series of coordinated assaults across southern and eastern Ukraine starting on June 4.
The 82nd Brigade and its sister air-assault unit, the 46th Brigade, were some of the last major units that the Ukrainian general staff was holding in reserve. In finally sending those formations into battle, the Ukrainians could significantly boost their firepower along one of the main axes of the counteroffensivethe one stretching 50 miles from Russian-occupied Robotyne to occupied Melitopol, just north of the Black Sea coast.

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I do not know. The Russians would appear to have much more in reserves now, both in Ukraine and nearby, but that is again depending on what sources one trusts/believes. If the Ukrainians retreat this week from Robotyne, I think the estimate as to SU-24/himars losses would be accurate, and their 'offensive' would be functionally over for the year.

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Are you aware of a single documented loss of HIMARS or M270's? I'm not. Russia has claimed to destroy more than we gave Ukraine, and yet GMLRS continue to rain down. So… perhaps it's not accurate.

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I've seen pictures of them on the ground unexploded, and claims they were jammed/shot down, but nothing I'd stake a claim to personally believing really. There were a lot of reports/claims over the summer as to shooting them down, yes. It seems like a generally pretty effective weapon imho, but I'm not an expert.

Gatewaypundit update today:

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The Ukrainian Army lost up to 4,855 servicemen last week, TASS reports, as its counter-offensive inches forward in Southern Ukraine. Last week, the Ukrainian forces lost 1,490 fighters in the Donetsk area, 1,180 servicemen in the South Donetsk area, 820 in the Zaporozhye area, 665 in the Kupyansk area, 485 in the Krasny Liman area and 215 in the Kherson area, TASS reports, based on the figures ofthe Russian Defense Ministry.

On Saturday, Aug. 26, the Ukrainian Army lost a total of 785 casualties, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, which claims to have repelled five attacks by the elite Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault and 46th Airmobile brigades in Robotyne in the Zaporozhye region, with up to 200 Ukrainian casualties. Up to 240 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and wounded outside of Donetsk, where heavy fighting was also taking place.

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Former Italian PM:

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Former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte wrote that "the strategy pursued in the NATO area, based on continuous military supplies to Ukraine and on the logic of escalation, has not resulted in the expected Russian military defeat… There has been no defeat of the Russian army in Bakhmut, there has been no weakening of its military and paramilitary units, there has been no retreat under the Ukrainian counteroffensive."

"After a year and a half of war, what is the reality that prevails over all these simplistic predictions pumped by war propaganda?", Conte wrote. "The reality is 500 thousand deaths on both fronts. The reality is over 6 million Ukrainian refugees who left their country. The reality is entire cities and vast territories completely destroyed that we will have to help rebuild in the coming years, with a European financial commitment, estimated in the initial stage alone at 50 billion. The reality is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a pull effect on global military spending growth by 3.7% in 2022 compared to the previous year, with last year's military spending reaching a record amount of $2,240 billion across the planet."

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Rybar reported on Sunday that a general lull was observed almost everywhere on the FEBA and that Robotyne was still contested. Rybar's big map has two major insets depicting the main areas of battle at Robotyne and Kupyansk with the former shown as becoming ripe for counterattacks along the flanks to collapse the pocket and form a cauldron.

There's no rain in the long-term forecast for Donetsk which will favor Russian drone warfare which has proven very effective. I found this observation by Rybar significant:

"There was practically no shelling in the border areas today. This is probably due to large-scale counter-battery actions carried out by Russian forces."

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So what reports of HIMARS losses are you talking about? HIMARS are the trucks, M270 MLRS are the tracked vehicles. They fire GMLRS, and yes it's plausible that some have been intercepted although Russia's inability to defend high value targets from them suggests it's hit or miss, and mostly miss.

AgLA06 said:

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To be fair. This is the entire point of this thread.

"Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates"

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Not going to criticize an actual update

GAC06 said:

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So what reports of HIMARS losses are you talking about? HIMARS are the trucks, M270 MLRS are the tracked vehicles. They fire GMLRS, and yes it's plausible that some have been intercepted although Russia's inability to defend high value targets from them suggests it's hit or miss, and mostly miss.

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Even back in May there were reports on this. I understand the truck vs. the rockets themselves, it's just a system commonly referred to by the himars name.

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And now, if you read the new Rusi institute report, you'll see they are confirming exactly what I said:

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Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static, locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted. Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar.

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Of course, when you have only 80k men in the country rather than the 250k everyone thinks, there's going to be giant gaps in your AD and it won't be fully 'networked' anyway but rather an ad hoc collection of mobile systems only protecting the most critical areas. Now that Russia has filled out the lines with real troop numbers, it has created an actual networked and integrated system which has mostly nullified HIMARs.

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I'm trying to stay on topic, sorry, but don't understand how if these were as effective as claimed, the lines are still so similar to what they were in the spring.

nortex97 said:

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GAC06 said:

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So what reports of HIMARS losses are you talking about? HIMARS are the trucks, M270 MLRS are the tracked vehicles. They fire GMLRS, and yes it's plausible that some have been intercepted although Russia's inability to defend high value targets from them suggests it's hit or miss, and mostly miss.

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Even back in May there were reports on this. I understand the truck vs. the rockets themselves, it's just a system commonly referred to by the himars name.

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And now, if you read the new Rusi institute report, you'll see they are confirming exactly what I said:

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Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static, locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted. Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar.

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Of course, when you have only 80k men in the country rather than the 250k everyone thinks, there's going to be giant gaps in your AD and it won't be fully 'networked' anyway but rather an ad hoc collection of mobile systems only protecting the most critical areas. Now that Russia has filled out the lines with real troop numbers, it has created an actual networked and integrated system which has mostly nullified HIMARs.

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I'm trying to stay on topic, sorry, but don't understand how if these were as effective as claimed, the lines are still so similar to what they were in the spring.

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HIMARS and M270 are launch platforms. GMLRS are the rockets. Russia has claimed to have destroyed more HIMARS launch platforms than Ukraine has even been given, but they haven't been able to show a single burned out vehicle or hit. In reality, they probably haven't hit a single one.

They've also claimed they can now shoot down GMLRS rockets launched from HIMARS or M270's with 100% effectiveness. This is 100% BS and copium. There have been many documented strikes since that was posted. We've also seen Ukraine take out an S300 and S400. The S300 was supposedly hit by GMLRS, so kind of hard to believe Russia's claims of being able to shoot these rockets down with perfect efficiency when there's video of them hitting some of their most advanced air defense radars. No one is sure what the S400 was hit with. The reality is that high profile strikes from HIMARS have likely tailed off because Russia moved a lot of their stockpiles and logistics further to the rear and it of range. Make no mistake, they're still happening though.


ETA These are extremely effective. Much of the success of Ukraine 's last offensive was due to the strikes on Russian logistics. Russia has since moved their main hubs and stockpiles farther behind their lines to avoid being targeted by GMLRS strikes. As others have mentioned, they've been used lately to strike Russia's artillery and whittle down their artillery advantage. It's not the flashy explosions of munitions dumps from when they were first delivered, but it's important strategic work that has taken awhile. With the GLSDBs getting delivered in the coming months, the Russians will need to adapt again and move their logistics hubs even further back. GLSDB is essentially a ground launched JDAM glide bomb. It's like a GMLRS round with a longer range (over 2x GMLRS rounds) because it glides to a target.

I am sure Ukraine lost some air based missile systems with Russia hitting the ammo depot by the air station. Likely the amount Ukraine lost is somewhere in the middle.

I have not seen many M270 type units destroyed by mines but sure some have with how many are in Ukraine. If we follow a pattern Ukraine does a big push with artillery, ground troops advance, and then they reset for the next offensive. They knock out logistics and ammo sites then do another push

P.U.T.U said:

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I am sure Ukraine lost some air based missile systems with Russia hitting the ammo depot by the air station. Likely the amount Ukraine lost is somewhere in the middle.

I have not seen many M270 type units destroyed by mines but sure some have with how many are in Ukraine. If we follow a pattern Ukraine does a big push with artillery, ground troops advance, and then they reset for the next offensive. They knock out logistics and ammo sites then do another push

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Seriously doubt any M270's have been damaged or destroyed by mines. They operate well behind the lines in mine cleared areas.

P.U.T.U said:

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I am sure Ukraine lost some air based missile systems with Russia hitting the ammo depot by the air station. Likely the amount Ukraine lost is somewhere in the middle.

I have not seen many M270 type units destroyed by mines but sure some have with how many are in Ukraine. If we follow a pattern Ukraine does a big push with artillery, ground troops advance, and then they reset for the next offensive. They knock out logistics and ammo sites then do another push

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No excuses for long range assets running into mines. They should never be near the front lines driving over virgin terrain.

Dayum

74OA said:

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The bit about using drones to make a map of metallic mines by their heat signature was interesting to me. Does this still work in the winter?

Rongagin71 said:

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74OA said:

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The bit about using drones to make a map of metallic mines by their heat signature was interesting to me. Does this still work in the winter?

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The heat contrast is less, so detection is more problematic.

Snow would be a problem but anything metallic that gets warmed by the sun will stand out from its surroundings at the right times of day.

Yeah, that's brutal, especially from that channel.

nortex97 said:

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Yeah, that's brutal, especially from that channel.

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They're not a, "channel." They're a nonprofit think tank.

https://understandingwar.org/who-we-are

https://understandingwar.org/mission-statement

74OA said:

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Rongagin71 said:

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74OA said:

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The bit about using drones to make a map of metallic mines by their heat signature was interesting to me. Does this still work in the winter?

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The heat contrast is less, so detection is more problematic.

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Let's go further on this. If I were in a heavily mined area and needed to clear it, why not use heavy duty drones (or an army of smaller drones) dragging a magnet or at least something that would activate the mines.you only lose a drone and not people. I'm not up to date on my mine technology, but I think drones can be used to clear these. If not, LIDAR Can at least detect freshly dug areas where mines may be laying.

lb3 said:

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There might be some value in unleashing a thousand riding lawnmowers on the front lines.

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I don't understand this joke. Are the mines weight sensitive or magnetic?

10thYrSr said:

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lb3 said:

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There might be some value in unleashing a thousand riding lawnmowers on the front lines.

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I don't understand this joke. Are the mines weight sensitive or magnetic?

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Maybe you didn't deserve the joke.

The mines are are a major ****ing problem and the methods to clear are quite difficult and also very dangerous. This obstacle hasn't been a real problem to Americans for a really long time and we have no shortage of retired desk grade officers making ridiculous statements that the Ukrainian offensive has stalled because they never had to deal with such while having access to significant other assets that flew over or around ground laid mines. This said I am confident the Ukrainians will be the worlds leading expert on clearing. Stay tuned.

for those falsely thinking HIMARS out of action. Heres a recent success single shot fire mission.

https://reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/AicVNrSDIL

I understand they are a big problem. Thank you for your kind words. I think that drones can act as minesweeper. What do you think?

10thYrSr said:

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lb3 said:

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There might be some value in unleashing a thousand riding lawnmowers on the front lines.

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I don't understand this joke. Are the mines weight sensitive or magnetic?

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It wasn't intended as a joke. As stated above mines are a huge problem and automated cheap disposable bots as you suggest would be quite useful. I'm my mind, why engineer a new vehicle from scratch when you could just use a raspberry pi, a cheap sensor board, and a servo to automate some zero turn mowers and cub-cadet riding mowers.

Given the artillery cratered terrain, maybe a few thousand ATVs might be better suited for the task.

If they all die on mines great, they've done their job. If they force the Orcs in the trenches to expend their ammo prior to the main assault, that's great too.

lb3 said:

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10thYrSr said:

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lb3 said:

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There might be some value in unleashing a thousand riding lawnmowers on the front lines.

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I don't understand this joke. Are the mines weight sensitive or magnetic?

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It wasn't intended as a joke. As stated above mines are a huge problem and automated cheap disposable bots as you suggest would be quite useful. I'm my mind, why engineer a new vehicle from scratch when you could just use a raspberry pi, a cheap sensor board, and a servo to automate some zero turn mowers and cub-cadet riding mowers.

Given the artillery cratered terrain, maybe a few thousand ATVs might be better suited for the task.

If they all die on mines great, they've done their job. If they force the Orcs in the trenches to expend their ammo prior to the main assault, that's great too.

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Ok, let's talk about LIDAR. Drones can be equipped with LIDAR showing new buried objects. We can see where the mines are buried. So if the US gives LIDAR to the drones Ukraine is already using, they can detect mines.