Good read re: difficulties in trying to attack entrenched defensive positions

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/ukraine-combined-arms-training?utm_campaign=post

A lot of Pentagon officials are still living in the 20th century.🙄 https://t.co/1WsBYxFlgc

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) August 27, 2023

In another crazy story, in the vicinity of Robotyne, 52 Russian soldiers beat the commander and surrendered with him to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It all started with the mobs complaining about the lack of food and ammunition, after which things spiraled out of control. pic.twitter.com/pSnNLS4B0c

— Astraia intel 🇺🇦 (@astraiaintel) August 27, 2023

Aug 27, 2023: Update 2 on the Robotyne AO, Tokmak Axis, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine

No confirmation from the AFU General Staff

Russian mil-bloggers are reporting that the AFU has broken through to Verbove. If true, this is the 46th Airmobile Brigade and it is huge in many ways… pic.twitter.com/9kfMzR2W1j

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) August 27, 2023

So is Ukraine close to winning this? Hard to tell but appears positive from posts on X above.

FJB said:

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So is Ukraine close to winning this? Hard to tell but appears positive from posts on X above.

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Close? No, not even remotely. It does seem that they are starting to get a bit more success after breaking through some of the prepared defenses, which should be expected. These areas are still heavily contested and mined and both sides are engaging their freshest units. If the Russians had a major breakdown someplace that allowed the Ukes to spill out then you could see things change very, very rapidly to the point where the Russians would lose their vaunted land corridor but retaking Melitopol or Mariupol is probably not happening this year. That would have to be some 1918 level problems at the field armies. We haven't seen anything like that yet. Could happen if the Ukes could take Berdyansk and cut the Kerch bridge though. There is simply no way for the Russians to resupply Crimea and the territory upto Kherson by boat and ferry.

FJB said:

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So is Ukraine close to winning this? Hard to tell but appears positive from posts on X above.

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No. But making steady progress. It certainly could domino on Russia though. I think if they can get to Tokmak by the end of the fall it will be hugely successful. From there they should be able to make the land bridge very miserable for the Russians.

An assault on Crimea is, imho, not in the cards. I just don't see the Ukes having the force composition to do that atm. Not in 2023 and probably not in 2024. But if you cut off the Russian's supplies via Kerch bridge and the land corridor, I don't see a way to defend all that territory. You could certainly see a lot of mutinies and problems once they start running out of fuel, power and food/water. Of course at that point I wouldn't be surprised if a tactical nuclear weapon wasn't used on the Berdyansk area or somewhere else. Losing Crimea would be a catastrophic loss for the Russians and I just don't see how Putin doesn't use the whole arsenal to stop it. That would absolutely be the bright red line that I think Putin would set. I don't think he would use it closer to the Nuclear plants b/c the fallout (pun intended) of something happening there and spreading a la Chernobyl across Europe can't be calculated. But stopping the Ukes from advancing there and threatening Crimea, I could see it at that point. An international address saying (no matter how unjustified it is) "we've been reasonable, presented terms, the West has inflicted this on them and if this continues then we will use nuclear weapons to stop the further loss of life on both sides just like America did in WWII. Come to the negotiating table now or we will use any weapon in our inventory to force you to."

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on August 27 that Ukrainian forces advanced in the Urozhaine area and were successful near Staromayorske in the Berdyansk direction (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area). https://t.co/FyZUnkrAqz https://t.co/0idTdzdgvc pic.twitter.com/uxcnVMUOfx

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) August 28, 2023

Something I called on Telegram back on August 8th but which has been fully borne out by now:

Ukraine appears to be out of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, or at least very close to out of them, after a Russian strike in Khmelnitsky three weeks ago targeted what was likely the… pic.twitter.com/Q1mXwmw9Jx

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 28, 2023

Cool video of thermal mapping of mine fields included

For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been…

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) August 28, 2023

Good question.

Quote:

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For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been destroyed? Quite possible.

Either way, if the AFU has lost most or all of its remaining long-range strike capability ... there's nothing left in the NATO cupboard to give them. Even HIMARS strikes have dwindled to just a handful per week, with most being shot down or disabled.

It's no wonder we're hearing lots of rumors about a pending major Russian counter-offensive.

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Seems logical even if you question the source.

nortex97 said:

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For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been…

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) August 28, 2023

Good question.

Quote:

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For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been destroyed? Quite possible.

Either way, if the AFU has lost most or all of its remaining long-range strike capability ... there's nothing left in the NATO cupboard to give them. Even HIMARS strikes have dwindled to just a handful per week, with most being shot down or disabled.

It's no wonder we're hearing lots of rumors about a pending major Russian counter-offensive.

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Is there any evidence for HIMARS being shot down? I've not heard of them being intercepted in all this time.

These might be nice to share:

https://www.defense-aerospace.com/us-army-fires-tomahawk-missiles-from-truck-mounted-launcher/

I think with the F-16's coming what you'd eventually and likely see is them armed with JASSM's as their stand off cruise missile system.

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Is there any evidence for HIMARS being shot down? I've not heard of them being intercepted in all this time.

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There is if you rely on "other perspectives". There is nothing in reliable reporting that consistently shows this to be true.

If the launchers of HIMARs did get damaged/destroyed, that would be very bad since Ukraine is just about to be in range of striking a lot of HVTs. Losing SU24s would be equally as bad, maybe why the big push for F16s and such to get on the front lines ASAP.

Or Ukraine is going back striking key targets when they become available like they were doing at the beginning of the war. Ukraine still cannot go toe to toe with Russia in a conventional battle so picking when and where they fight is still their best strategy.

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Or Ukraine is going back striking key targets when they become available like they were doing at the beginning of the war. Ukraine still cannot go toe to toe with Russia in a conventional battle so picking when and where they fight is still their best strategy.

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I think this is likely since they seemed to shift their strategy when the brute force tactics of the initial offensive failed and resulted in a lot of Uke casualties. The Ukes are taking their time and using targeting to their advantage in this southern push which appears to be paying off.

GLSDBs supposed to start arriving in October.

He makes a decent case, but I'll take it with a grain of salt because of the source. Also, the before and after images have one major difference: clarity. The before has a much higher resolution, and you can make out a lot more. The after is blurry AF.

Also, a counter argument is that Ukraine has a limited number of missiles. They're not going to do these huge strikes on a consistent basis because they can't. What we should really expect to see are smaller strikes on high value targets as they're found or on key infrastructure before offensive operations. Storm shadows and SCALPS are low visibility cruise missiles. They don't need to be launched in huge barrages to overwhelm air defenses like the Russians do with their missiles and drones.

nortex97 said:

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For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been…

— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) August 28, 2023

Good question.

Quote:

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For a few days prior to the strike at Khmelnytsky, we saw some of the largest Storm Shadow salvos the AFU had pulled off. As many as a dozen at once. Since then, as you've noted above, they've effectively disappeared.

Could some or all of the remaining Su-24s have also been destroyed? Quite possible.

Either way, if the AFU has lost most or all of its remaining long-range strike capability ... there's nothing left in the NATO cupboard to give them. Even HIMARS strikes have dwindled to just a handful per week, with most being shot down or disabled.

It's no wonder we're hearing lots of rumors about a pending major Russian counter-offensive.

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Seriously doubtful about the HIMARS strikes. Again, Ukraine is likely using HIMARS for high value targets or targets of opportunity, like those Russian training formations gathered on a beach earlier this month or the hundreds of guys formed up for two hours and waiting for their general's big speech a few weeks ago. Use of DPICM rounds may also be decreasing their need on the front.

There are two possibilities, both applicable to HIMARS and Storm Shadow/SCALP: One, the Ukrainians are running low on munitions, or two, they've exhausted the list of critical targets and are waiting for opportunities. Both are likely because both are natural consequences of using these munitions. As they're used, supply depletes and their value increases, but as they destroy key infrastructure targets, the number of critical targets justifying such a strike decreases as well.

It wouldn't surprise me if they did lose a bunch of the cruise missiles. This is war and that is definitely possible. I unless they got caught in a maintenance cycle I doubt the Su-24s were on the ground. The fact that the Ukes have ANY left at this point is a testament to the fact that they've been on the ball on that score.

The other possibility is that with the newer pushes they're waiting to stress the Russians and need to lower the pace of operations to build up ammo reserves to roll through crucial target packages. That's uh a pretty optimistic take.

Agreed. Not buying they suddenly ran out or were destroyed. There's still been video of HIMARs hitting lone self propelled Russian artillery systems. They wouldn't be doing that if they were critically low.

They are facing a larger enemy/Russian force they claim to be advancing on.

RU telegram sums up the current state of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine:

"So far our defenses are holding" pic.twitter.com/lbXERX0IF3

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 28, 2023

Unless I'm mistaken, Russia repositioned troops to reinforce this area not long ago. Were Ukraine to make immediate advances in this area, frankly, I'd be astonished.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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There are two possibilities, both applicable to HIMARS and Storm Shadow/SCALP: One, the Ukrainians are running low on munitions, or two, they've exhausted the list of critical targets and are waiting for opportunities.

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It could be a regression towards the mean. They likely had high value targets that they hit at the beginning of the offensive that they had intel on for a while. There may be scarcity of those targets now.

SmallBusiness said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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There are two possibilities, both applicable to HIMARS and Storm Shadow/SCALP: One, the Ukrainians are running low on munitions, or two, they've exhausted the list of critical targets and are waiting for opportunities.

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It could be a regression towards the mean. They likely had high value targets that they hit at the beginning of the offensive that they had intel on for a while. There may be scarcity of those targets now.

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Exactly. They've run out of immediate concerns and are now hitting things as they come instead.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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nortex97 said:

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They are facing a larger enemy/Russian force they claim to be advancing on.

RU telegram sums up the current state of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine:

"So far our defenses are holding" pic.twitter.com/lbXERX0IF3

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 28, 2023

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Except the Ukrainians have taken Robotyne and are, by many accounts, in Verbove. By some accounts they've reached the southern outskirts. If that's true, then no, their defenses are not holding.

Russia is also redeploying 76th Guards Air Assault Division here from the East in an attempt to stop further advances. Again, this would not happen if their defenses were holding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/27/as-ukraines-counteroffensive-gains-momentum-russia-is-deploying-some-of-its-last-good-reserves/?sh=6ef22e3772bf

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The UFA threw the 82nd brigade, their lightest and most mobile, at the hamlet/area around Robotyne which the Russians maintain overwatch of with significant field artillery capabilities (again betraying the flawed analyses I think that there are no more 'good targets' for himars etc). I linked above to indicia as to why this land is strategically worthless, such as it is today. Russia redeploying forces in response though is only logical to the push there.

Quote:

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One thing to note is that, the 82nd is structured in a peculiar way compared to the other brigades. They appear to be the lightest and most mobile. This is due to every other brigade of the 9th Corps being distributed with the equivalent of two tank companies or perhaps a light tank battalion of about 30 tanks with 90 armored vehicles (AFV, IFV, ICV, AMV, APC, etc.). But the 82nd has a measly 14 x Challenger 2s but 90 Strykers + 40 Marders for a total of 130 capable lightly armored combat vehicles. Even their M119 light howitzers specialize in fast setup and mobility.

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The operative question remains what happens next:

Quote:

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Quote:

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On June 22, Forbes assessed that the 82nd, and the 117th Mechanized Brigade where being held in reserve waiting for a significant breach in Russian lines to allow them to storm Melitopol.

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The Forbes article says the deployment of the brigade is both "good and bad" news. Good because it's a fresh brigade, bad because they have nothing left after it:

Quote:

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The deployment is good and bad news for Kyiv's long-anticipated counteroffensive, which kicked off with a series of coordinated assaults across southern and eastern Ukraine starting on June 4.
The 82nd Brigade and its sister air-assault unit, the 46th Brigade, were some of the last major units that the Ukrainian general staff was holding in reserve. In finally sending those formations into battle, the Ukrainians could significantly boost their firepower along one of the main axes of the counteroffensivethe one stretching 50 miles from Russian-occupied Robotyne to occupied Melitopol, just north of the Black Sea coast.

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I do not know. The Russians would appear to have much more in reserves now, both in Ukraine and nearby, but that is again depending on what sources one trusts/believes. If the Ukrainians retreat this week from Robotyne, I think the estimate as to SU-24/himars losses would be accurate, and their 'offensive' would be functionally over for the year.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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nortex97 said:

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They are facing a larger enemy/Russian force they claim to be advancing on.

RU telegram sums up the current state of the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine:

"So far our defenses are holding" pic.twitter.com/lbXERX0IF3

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 28, 2023

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Except the Ukrainians have taken Robotyne and are, by many accounts, in Verbove. By some accounts they've reached the southern outskirts. If that's true, then no, their defenses are not holding.

Russia is also redeploying 76th Guards Air Assault Division here from the East in an attempt to stop further advances. Again, this would not happen if their defenses were holding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/27/as-ukraines-counteroffensive-gains-momentum-russia-is-deploying-some-of-its-last-good-reserves/?sh=6ef22e3772bf

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Russia claims “fighting for #Robotyne continues despite the Ukrainian claims about its control”.

➡️In reality, Russian troops are monitoring the village with drones and bombing Ukrainian forces (with quite some accuracy, sadly) from the south.

➡️No evidence for almost a week,… pic.twitter.com/bTiOdn6EKC

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) August 28, 2023

For reference: pic.twitter.com/QDgieo9rKu

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) August 28, 2023