***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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USAFAg
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AG
ABATTBQ11 said:

USA*** said:

AgLA06 said:

I get it. I just thought many like me grew up (rightly or wrongly) assuming we were better.
It has been in my experience, with 28 years in uniform and 10 years as a civilian, in fighter/bomber training/operations as well as personally knowing and/or working directly with hundreds F-15, F-16, F-18 and F-35 pilots from multiple countries in Europe and the Far East that very few countries are our equal in individual pilots and NONE are better Air Forces on the whole.




Username checks out


Yes, sir. Thank you for that, it does. Most make some juvenile remark.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Rossticus
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Looks like "the neighborhood" is up late :p
USAFAg
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Rossticus said:

Looks like "the neighborhood" is up late :p


Things. Memories. Keep old men up past thier bedtime looking at the moon.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
USAFAg
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Rossticus said:




This. I am not precient, but said this very long ago. It's not Desert Storm, it's Kursk 1943 with modern weapons.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
nortex97
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Strategic news:


Quote:

Gleb Bazov of Slavyangrad even claims the following dire situation:
Quote:

Sources monitoring the movement of Ukrainian strategic military reserves report their absence from the previous deployment locations. This means that Ukraine has nearly drained/exhausted all its currently available manpower and military equipment resources, sending them to the front.
This corroborates our earlier projection that the Ukrainian counteroink has peaked and is slated to completely exhaust itself in September, likely by mid to the beginning of the last third of month.
What's interesting is that other headlines have recently been revealing how U.S. leadership is clashing with that of the AFU in regard to the distribution of forces. Namely that Western leadership wants Ukraine to go "all in" on the southern direction while they regard Ukraine's pouring of reserves into Bakhmut and the northern Kharkov front to be wasteful and dissipative.

The latest NYTimes article goes into this:




PJYoung
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PJYoung
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There are three key false theses that #Russia is actively promoting:

1. The conflict has reached stalemate. The offensive has failed.

2. It is necessary to immediately move to pseudo-diplomacy and freeze the conflict (with the cessation of arms supplies to #Ukraine).

3. Russia still has many resources and many people willing to "fight".

Of course, all of these theses are "dead" and have nothing to do with reality: Russia's strength reserve is much smaller, and the Ukrainian offensive is moving toward taking fire control over the entire southern front. All of these theses indicate only one thing: growing panic among Russian elites, a lack of understanding of what to do, and a catastrophic fear of losing... So, we must push it to the end

GAC06
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Ukraine optimistic for accelerating progress in the south. I guess we'll see.
PJYoung
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Oops





TLDR: They're taking down crosses and putting up pyramids on all Wagner graves.
GAC06
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Money to be made in the gravestone industry
benchmark
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GuatemalanAg
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https://x.com/iaponomarenko/status/1695428525392638435?s=46&t=5S6ALz7f0x039FY0co0qWQ
Rossticus
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PJYoung
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74OA
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Not a drone, after all?

"Ukraine may have used a new weapon in this week's attack on a Russian S-400 Triumpf SAM system in occupied Crimea. Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, confirmed Saturday that a new Ukrainian missile hit the S-400, but did not say what specifically "modern" weapon was used."

Today's SITREP.
Waffledynamics
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Interesting to see where Russia moved their bombers back to.

Quote:

Activity of Russian strategic aviation. 6 Tu-95MS bombers airborne from the Olenya base
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/26-august-activity-of-russian-strategic-aviation-6-tu95ms



That's quite far away.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Air defense was active in Kyiv amid new massive attack with Kh-101 missiles
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-august-air-defense-was-active-in-kyiv-amid-new-massive

Quote:

Air defense was active in Cherkasy region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-august-air-defense-was-active-in-cherkasy-region-
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Hmmmmm.





nortex97
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USA*** said:

Rossticus said:




This. I am not precient, but said this very long ago. It's not Desert Storm, it's Kursk 1943 with modern weapons.
Kursk was really a wholly different scale of operations. The similarity is the actual geography and the impact the delays in the 'counter offensive' had on the Russians ability to implement a structured/layered defense.

Specifically, Zaluzhny seems not to have recognized those in time to act appropriately. Kursk was delayed to wait for the arrival of new weapons.
Quote:

On 10 March, Manstein presented a plan whereby the German forces would pinch off the Kursk salient with a rapid offensive commencing as soon as the spring rasputitsa had subsided.
...
On 1718 June, following a discussion in which the OKW Operations Staff suggested abandoning the offensive, Hitler further postponed the operation until 3 July. Finally, on 1 July, Hitler announced 5 July as the launch date of the offensive.
Anyway, not much actual tactical news to report.

Quote:

#Summary for the morning of August 27, 2023
The Russian Armed Forces attacked targets in the Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lvov, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zaporozhye regions at night. Missiles were launched, including from ships and strategic missile carriers. By 6 am, another missile salvo was fired at enemy targets.
On the Zaporozhye Front, the enemy is expanding the zone of control in the direction of the settlement. Willow, throws dozens of armored vehicles into battle, including for the delivery of troops to the northern part of the settlement. Rabotino. The enemy is not sensitive to the most serious losses of manpower, there are heavy bloody battles, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to develop a result comparable with the losses thanks to the heroism and selflessness of our marines, motorized riflemen and paratroopers. The enemy command before the rains is trying to achieve an indicative result, grinding the strategic reserve against our defenses.
Fights continue on the islands in the Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are dropping landing groups on small watercraft with the support of drones and artillery fire. They tried to "solve" the problems of organizing combat activities in certain units of the Russian Armed Forces by recording a positive video with servicemen from units, the real state of affairs in the unit is still unchanged.
On the Vremevsky and Ugledrasky directions, the intensity of hostilities over the past day has slightly decreased: the enemy regrouped and conducted reconnaissance in small groups.
In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces repulsed the attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counterattack, and consolidated their positions.
7 enemy attacks were repelled in the Krasnolimansky direction.
To the south of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the front near Kleshcheevka has been stabilized, however, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are very active, without stopping the attack.
The shelling of the civilian population by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has intensified in the Belgorod region, incl. from MLRS. One civilian was killed, 6 were injured. On approaching Belgorod, an UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was shot down. In the Bryansk region, the Klimovsky district was shelled, and a drone was shot down over the Trubchevsky district. Explosions sounded in Kursk in the morning, by 7:00 there was no official information. 6 civilians wounded in DPR due to shelling by Ukrainian Armed Forces
shiftyandquick
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sclaff
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Nice review of railway logistics supporting Russian occupation in the south

nortex97
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Strategic impact of sanctions discussed (yesterday):

fullback44
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shiftyandquick said:




You would think Russia could supply its troups by boats and ships if necessary? Does Ukraine have the weopons to keep Russia from supplying by ship ?
chickencoupe16
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Resupply via ship is historically difficult and costly. Instead of loading a train at a factory, now you're loading a train, unloading onto a ship, and then unloading the ship onto another train. Maybe some trucks in-between. Ships and ports are also vulnerable to attack and cannot be replaced/rebuilt as quickly as ground based transportation.

But I'm not sure that the Russians have the shipping capability even without Ukrainian attacks.
Waffledynamics
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They have been using the southern ports. This is why you've seen some targeting of Mariupol and Berdyansk. It seems like there are more frequent strikes on Berdyansk, though.
chickencoupe16
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chickencoupe16 said:

Resupply via ship is historically difficult and costly. Instead of loading a train at a factory, now you're loading a train, unloading onto a ship, and then unloading the ship onto another train. Maybe some trucks in-between. Ships and ports are also vulnerable to attack and cannot be replaced/rebuilt as quickly as ground based transportation.

But I'm not sure that the Russians have the shipping capability even without Ukrainian attacks.


Edit to add: early in the war, it was shown that the Russians don't use palletized shipping with forklifts. They prefer to use manpower instead. This means that every change in mode of transportation takes significantly longer than it would in a western organization.

Actual edit: what a fail; I quoted instead of editing...
aezmvp
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They will attempt to supply or augment supplies coming over the Kerch Bridge through shipping to Berdyansk and Sevastopol both of which have rail lines to the area. Berdyansk is more difficult because it's a smaller port and the rail line doesn't have as many turn around and offloading points which their railway troops will have to build. Can the Ukes reach those? Yes with cruise missiles. Maybe ATACAMs in Berdyansk. But it will likely cut a quarter of the total supply capacity in the area.
Rock1982
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PJYoung said:


Excellent article. Worth your time.

Fundamentally we are seeing a major shift in the maneuver / firepower balance in land warfare.



74OA
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"The Ukrainian army said it is continuing to advance after breaking through the Russian defense line in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian investigators have confirmed the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin."

UPDATES
Eliminatus
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Rock1982 said:

PJYoung said:


Excellent article. Worth your time.

Fundamentally we are seeing a major shift in the maneuver / firepower balance in land warfare.






Hard agree here. A very informative short article that lays out the realities of this new war. It adds perspective that honestly, so many don't understand. Especially talking heads. I can't even watch these old "experts" anymore who haven't held a command in 20 years trying to stay relevant. It's so cringe and sad to see the willful disconnect between the old days and our new world.

Will also say if anyone here has more than a passing interest in this conflict, highly recommend you read this and digest it a bit. Nothing groundbreaking but just another iteration of how and why this war is being fought in the manner that it is.
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